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Week 10 power rankings
- By Prime Time
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 8 Replies
Can't finish out the weeks without posting some comments from the WalterFootball site.
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At least he picked the Rams over the Seahawks.......by 3 points.
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At least he picked the Rams over the Seahawks.......by 3 points.
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Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)
Line: Rams by 10. Total: 50.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -8.
Walt's Calculated Line: Rams -7.5.
Sunday, Nov 11, 4:25 PM
Edge: Rams.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff didn't have much of a problem dissecting the Seahawks' defense the last time he played against them. He misfired on just nine occasions, going 23-of-32 for 321 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. One of the picks was on a Hail Mary right before halftime, so he really had just one interception. Sure, the Seahawks didn't have star linebacker K.J. Wright available for that game, but Goff didn't have Brandin Cooks either, as Cooks was knocked out early in the game with a concussion.
I don't think enough has changed in the past five weeks to alter what will happen as far as Goff throwing on the Rams. He's extremely well protected, and his three dynamic receivers are healthy. The Seahawks' safeties are playing well, but their cornerbacks have struggled all year.
That said, the Seahawks should do a good job on Todd Gurley once again. Gurley scored thrice on the Seahawks in Week 5, but he had one of his worst yardage outputs of the year, as he rushed for 77 yards on 22 carries while catching four passes for 36 receiving yards. Wright was not on the field in that game, so he'll help Seattle do even better against Gurley. Wright is a terrific run defender, and he's also good in coverage. Limiting Gurley will be huge for the Seahawks, as they'll be able to prevent the Rams from running out the clock in the second half.
- SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks were able to keep pace with the Rams in the initial meeting, as Russell Wilson torched Los Angeles' secondary. Wilson was 13-of-21 for 198 yards and three touchdowns. The yardage isn't great, but Wilson beat cornerback Marcus Peters for some deep passes.
The same thing should happen in this game, as Peters is still struggling with an injury. In fact, Wilson could be even better because he barely had Doug Baldwin at his disposal in that game. Baldwin, if you recall, was coming off an injury just prior to that contest, and he wasn't healthy at all. Baldwin has been better since, so he could have a great performance versus the Rams' struggling secondary.
The Seahawks should also be able to run on the Rams. Los Angeles' linebacking corps has struggled all year, while Seattle's ground attack came alive last week when both Chris Carson and Mike Davis showed well versus the Chargers. Carson got banged up late, so it could be all Davis, who had 107 total yards on San Angeles. Davis is an effective receiver - seven catches against the Chargers - so he'll be able to abuse the Rams' struggling linebackers that way.
RECAP: I've been listing the Rams as overrated on the NFL Overrated and Underrated page all year, and I've been right on the money about them. That may sound strange on the surface because the Rams are 8-1, but the important question is, how many games have they covered this season? Since Week 3? Only one!
The Rams have been costing the public money since Week 3 because they're overrated. They have some incredible offensive weapons, and their offensive line is fantastic, but their defense sucks. Their secondary can't cover, while their linebacking corps is pedestrian. They also lack an edge rush, and I don't expect Dante Fowler to help very much. Teams have moved the chains against them all year.
- Save for the Cardinals, who were a train wreck under Sam Bradford, and the 49ers, who similarly sucked with C.J. Beathard, every opponent the Rams have faced has averaged six or more yards per play against them this season. That's absolutely horrible, and it would explain why the Rams are 1-4 against the spread in their previous five games. In fact, the only winning team the Rams have covered against this year is the Chargers. Otherwise, their spread victories have come against the Raiders, Cardinals and 49ers.
With that in mind, this spread is way too high. The Seahawks were able to nearly defeat the Rams in their first meeting, losing by two. Granted, that game was in Seattle, but the Seahawks tend to play well in divisional road games. They're 5-1-1 as divisional visitors over the past few years, which includes a win in Los Angeles last year even though the Rams were the better team back then.
I don't expect the Seahawks to win outright, but it could definitely happen. I would, however, be shocked if this were a blowout. Wilson is a great quarterback, and signal-callers of his caliber are automatic as large underdogs like this. Wilson is 16-7 against the spread as an underdog, period, and that number is even better if he's getting six points or more; he's a perfect 4-0 ATS in those situations in regular-season games.
- Furthermore, the Wilson-led Seahawks seldom get blown out. In the regular season, the Seahawks, under Wilson, have lost by double digits only twice. That makes sense, as Wilson is great at generating touchdown drives if a game is out of hand. We saw that last week versus the Chargers. He nearly led Seattle back from the dead.
This spread is too large for another reason as well. We've gone through the Rams being overrated and Wilson always keeping games close, but the third factor is that the Rams will be battling the Chiefs on Monday night next week. Given that they've already beaten the Seahawks, they likely won't bring their "A" game the second time, as they have to prepare to slow down Patrick Mahomes in a different country.
- Given that the people in the stands won't be on their side - Seattle fans are going to flood that stadium - the motivation just won't be there. Meanwhile, the Seahawks need this victory much more than the Rams do, as falling to 4-5 would really hurt their playoff chances.
If you couldn't tell, I love the Seahawks. In fact, they're my November NFL Pick of the Month. I hit my October NFL Pick of the Month by backing a great quarterback as a huge underdog against the Rams, and I'm going to follow that formula once again.
I'm actually going to lock this in now. Perhaps this line will rise, but there's a huge difference between +10 and +9.5, so I don't want to risk losing out on a key number. It's exactly +10 -110 at both Bookmaker and 5Dimes, so I'm betting eight units on Seattle at that number.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm shocked this spread hasn't fallen yet. I thought the sharps would be all over Seattle, but they haven't touched this game yet. There's still time for that to change though.
The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
The Rams already beat the Seahawks. They're coming off a tough game in New Orleans, and they battle the Chiefs in Mexico next Monday night.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
- Percentage of money on Seattle: 59% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
- History: Rams have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
- Pete Carroll is 13-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.
- Pete Carroll is 6-3 ATS in same-season revenge games.
- Seahawks are 37-49 ATS on the road since 2006 if they're not coming off an away loss.
- Seahawks are 9-16 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.
- Russell Wilson is 14-8 ATS after a loss as long as he's not favored by -10 or more.
- Russell Wilson is 16-7 ATS as an underdog.
- Opening Line: Rams -10.
- Opening Total: 51.5.
Week 10 NFL Pick: Rams 34, Seahawks 31
Seahawks +10 (8 Units - November NFL Pick of the Month)
Over 50 (0 Units)
