2018 Rams
Team Overview:
Being in the same system, the offense should do better than last year (like the 2000 Rams upgraded the 1999 offense)---I think controlling the ball with the mid and short routes, along with Gurley will bring a possession time of around 33-34 minutes this year. I think it is unanimous that Cooks is an upgrade over Watkins in all ways—except for the short TD slants, of which Sammy gave 3 last year. Suh and Donald have the chance to make this ‘the’ year for the Rams. The quickest way to the QB is up the middle; yes, we may not have a great edge rusher, but we also have 4 high quality corners---and because 2 of those corners are exceedingly intelligent we will blitz a lot.
I expect NFC championship at least, and really a Super Bowl appearance….but, I expected that in 1978 and 2000, too. I am not sure the Rams exceed 11-5, though 13-3 could happen, too. The NFC is loaded like never in the 45 yearas I watched. In 1980 the Eagles, Falcons, Rams, Dallas were neck and neck the whole season. I still think none of them was better than the other. However, in the playoffs, the Rams have the advantage with their interior pass rush, great corners and control offense than might look like the 1983 Redskins---a great mix of run game, excellent short pass game, and an O line that keeps Goff clean.
Offense:
McVay, I believe, will use the offense to control other teams. Goff is so accurate in the short, and the O line pass blocks well, so Goff if we need to pass only, we still can control games; Teams will fear Gurley, but it is McVay who knows how to use him. I expect Gurley will have increased routes, and will line up wide quite a few times. Goff also isn’t at risk like other pocket passers because he clearly knows he has to get rid of the ball---I can’t think of a Ram QB, ever, who took less hits than him. I do wonder if Kupp will be that much better; except for the drops, I wonder what else he can do better in 2018.
Jamon Brown missing time is huge for me; Blythe may fill in decently, but Brown is superior in the run game, and knew how to work with his teammates. Having Noteboom off the bench is very important---as Chris Long’s sack over D Williams cost us the Eagles game last year.
By mid-season I am hoping that John Kelly becomes the next Delpino (1988-1991, kids). He is tough, and makes yards where there aren’t any (maybe better than Gurley), and is good in the passing game. He may not be pass pro ready yet.
G Everett may be a bit of a disappointment, but we can all agree that Woods, Cook and Cooper Kupp will keep all coaches occupied---and then you slip Everett in there 2-3 times a game, and he could have some big plays for us (like Redskins game).
The Rams offense is sooo consistent, in part due to the collective intelligence of the players, so I expect very similar, if not better results from all the players (except Whit and Sully)---however, the person who can make the biggest upgrade from his 2017 season is Higbee. Higbee is a good enough blocker, and Mundt and Everett aren’t….so, if he goes down, that will change the entire offense. Similar to the Eagle defense used in 1988-1989, where 5 LBs were used, the offense might be forced to become better if Higbee goes down; but, I would not like to see that change.
Someone said if Gurley goes down we are ‘over’. No way, we can still roll—Goff is the centerpiece because of his intelligence and accuracy. He will be a lot better this year, but with a little slippage in the O line, and we might not notice a huge statistical difference. If you re-atch 2017, I would say every game about 6-8 pass attempts were ‘lost’ for various mental reasons---that won’t happen this year. Goff was a 62% last year because of these ‘lost’ plays—I expect 68-73% this year. I do expect that Cooks and him will hook up for 4-5 long TDs (40+ yards) this year.
Defense
Wade is all about stopping the pass (look at his historical record). Marcus Peters is a top 1-3 corner in most peoples eyes. Suh, because of playing alongside AD and Brockers, becomes a top 3-5 DT as a pass rusher. AD is a #1 DT; the potentiation effect that could happen between those 3 players is what I think gives us the upper hand against the Eagles, Falcons and Vikings and Saints offenses. What team in NFL history has 2 pro bowl pass rushing DTs? Other teams had 2 pro bowlers, but one was primarily a run stopper.
The Eagles, because of Wentz, who is this generation’s Elway, are a wild card against the Rams offens, and so we can’t know until the games are played---but the the offenses of the rest of the NFC shouldn’t bother the Rams at all. The eagles don’t have great WRs, so I figure the Rams will do quite well against a healthy Wentz.
The D line will be the 1 rated D line against the run by PFF (they were #3, I believe, in 2016---yes, I know it was a 4-3). Aso: Suh is the NT, but I suspect he will rotate to different positions along the line, and be the DT, not NT, on passing downs. And, I wonder if Brockers sometimes goes to NT….just thinking…
The D line makes the OLBs go from 6/10 to 8/10 automatically. When Obo comes back, maybe he will get some nice sacks like Kevin Greene did late in his rookie year (1985 against Dallas in the playoffs). Lawler and Ebukam will get some sacks against TEs and RBs for sure---the mystery is the ROLB. But, with corners like we have, and 2 all-pro DTs everybody gets better.
ILB: No way Corey Littelton holds up as a full time 16 game ILB….look at his build. He is a very good player for Wade’s system. As long as he and Barron are around for the playoffs, I have full believe the Rams will be a top 2-4 team against the pass---like Wade’s Denver teams.
I don’t believe Talib is so good anymore; however, because of confidence, and knowing the system and our pass rush we can still be effective B/B+ player. Peters is a top 5 corners, and our safeties are great in coverage, too. I expect a top 5 at worst pass defense.
We have 4 solid corners. We lost to the Redskins and Eagles because of in-game injuries at Corner. It seems like we won’t have that problem this year. Joyner seems to get knicked up, but I like JJ backing him up at FS---though I don’t know if that is Wade’s plan. Our back up safeties know the system,and seem to know the system, so maybe we are ok, there, too.
Special Teams:
Greg the leg will probably won’t be a pro bowler this year, but still be one of the best; Hekker may the all decade punter, but P. Cooper will never even be good again. But, the Rams will still be a top 5 special teams this year, anyway.
Conclusion:
The Bears, who looked like a bad taem last year, might be a 9-7 team this year, and AZ with the worst QBs in the league were 8-8 last year. Now they have Mr. Accuracy and Mike Glennon---so, those gusy could roll to 10-6 easy with their top 5 D defense. Seattle may take a step back, but division opponents are tough….so, there is not ‘easy out’ in the Rams schedule. In fact, the Raiders look like the only easy team on the schedule, and who knows what will happen on MNF in the hole---with no preseason reps for the offense.
Every team seems to have serious problems in the starting lineup. The only problem the Rams have is at ROLB---and with the synergy of adding 3 pro bowlers, it may not matter so much; so, we hope! Barron and Littleton are not problems. They are great against the pass, and sometimes really good against the run. Now that guards have to worry about Donald and Suh, not so many guards/centers will reach Barron and Littleton this year, anyway.
Goff will have much more command this year; I expect more no-huddle, and more plays that challenge the entire width and length of the field---yes, Brandin Cooks will be huge this year. IF you watch the Pats, Brady gets rid of the ball fast, Goff does not---at least not last year. I expect McVay is tweaking the offense to allow for some deep shots that we wouldn’t have taken last year. Watkins only got 2 long passes the whole year (SF and NYG games).
Gurley, like Faulk, can control games (Titans game). Kelly will not weaken the offense like Malcom Brown did---but it might take 5-6 games before Kelly is used significantly.
The only injuries (excepting, Goff) that would deter me from thinking NFCC at a minimum, would be along the O line. Noteboom can fill in for a few games, but it will be easy to take advantage of him in the run game. Blythe ain’t Brown. Saffold and Havenstein are smart, tough and great players for our system—we need them healthy in the playoffs.
What did I miss J ?
Especially after nobody in the media gave them a shot.
