Here’s how NFL TV rights are expected to shake out for the rest of the decade, according to sources

ARTICLE KEY POINTS

• Negotiations for NFL broadcast rights are expected to heat up as soon as the league’s collective bargaining agreement is completed.
• Traditional media players Disney, Comcast, ViacomCBS and Fox -- the current owners of NFL rights -- are all once again the favorites to retain football broadcast rights for the remainder of the decade.
• Amazon or another streaming service, such as ESPN+ or YouTube TV, could buy Sunday Ticket rights away from AT&T’s DirecTV, though it remains unclear if the league will negotiate that at the same time as its broadcast packages.

NFL owners and the NFL Players Association are likely nearing a collective bargaining agreement after owners approved the terms Thursday. Media companies and the NFL have been waiting for the CBA’s approval before negotiating new broadcast rights for NFL games, which are locked up until 2022.

The results will have a major impact on traditional media as millions of Americans cut the cord on pay-TV each year. Owning live football games is crucial for networks like ESPN to charge expensive affiliate fees to pay-TV distributors, and for Fox and CBS to remain viable against deeper-pocketed competitors like Disney and Comcast.

The NFL knows this, and is expected to jack up renewal rates on all of its major broadcast packages -- Thursday night, Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to speak publicly because negotiations are private.

Rates on Sunday afternoon games may double, jumping from $1 billion annually to $2 billion annually. ESPN pays $2 billion annually for Monday Night Football and may need to pay $3 billion to keep the package, two of the people said. Renewals will likely be seven or eight-year deals, the people said.

While Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google may be the barbarians at the gate looking to disrupt traditional media, the NFL probably isn’t ready to sell exclusive rights to streamers, according to people familiar the matter. Instead, the current players -- Disney (which owns both ESPN and ABC), Comcast (which owns NBC), ViacomCBS (which owns CBS) and Fox -- will probably just pay the league a lot more money for what they already have. The NFL is comfortable with existing relationships and isn’t eager to rock the boat on a product that has seen ratings rise the last two years even as almost all other shows on traditional TV have fallen.

Live sports is “the most important Jenga block holding up the entire legacy media ecosystem,” according to LightShed media analyst Rich Greenfield. In other words, the traditional players need to win renewal.

Technology companies like Amazon may buy digital-simulcast packages like they have for the last few years -- streaming games to a global audience as they’re simultaneously broadcast on network TV in the U.S. -- as well as new, smaller packages carved out by the NFL.

If the league sticks with the status quo -- ViacomCBS and Fox owning Sunday afternoons, Comcast owning Sunday Night and Disney taking Monday Night -- traditional media will declare victory. Keeping the NFL (and preventing others from owning digital rights) will add enormous value to networks for future retransmission and affiliate fee negotiations while also propping up newer streaming products that may include live sports rights. (ViacomCBS already includes live NFL games in its CBS All Access streaming product.)

But those same media companies will also have to figure out how to to afford the NFL’s increases with an ever-shrinking pool of pay-TV subscribers, which means fewer eyeballs for advertising and fewer subscribers from traditional pay-TV revenue.

If a company like ViacomCBS pays $2 billion a year for the NFL, it will likely lose money on the investment in the early years of the deal and will have to rely on a flourishing streaming business and other future monetization avenues (sports betting, etc.) to make up the difference. The NFL wants to maximize revenue but doesn’t want to drive its media partners out of business, potentially making companies with smaller balance sheets (like Fox and ViacomCBS) more vulnerable to losing their rights deals.

The following is a breakdown of what’s likely to come, according to people familiar with the companies involved and the NFL.

Disney

Disney is operating from a position of strength today, but has the most to lose as viewers shift to digital.

Its giant balance sheet, with an enterprise value of more than $300 billion, should allow the company to not only re-up Monday Night Football but potentially bid on a second package, whether that’s competing against CBS for Sunday afternoon games or buying Sunday Ticket rights to out-of-market Sunday afternoon games for ESPN+. Disney is interested in potentially sharing or simulcasting Monday Night Football between ESPN and ABC, according to people familiar with the matter. It also wants ABC to be back in the playoff and Super Bowl rotation, two of the people said.

Disney CEO Bob Iger has already said publicly he would have interest in Sunday Ticket, although it remains unclear if the NFL will negotiate Sunday Ticket at the same time as its other packages or wait until later this year.

If Disney does nab Sunday Ticket away from AT&T, it would use the package to push ESPN+ subscriptions, according to two people familiar with the company’s plans -- viewers would have to sign up for ESPN+ to have access to the games before paying the annual package charge, currently about $300. AT&T has viewed Sunday Ticket, which costs about $1.5 billion annually, as too expensive for the amount of customers it brings in for DirecTV and likely wouldn’t be interested in winning a bidding war, according to people familiar with the matter.

Still, while Disney can theoretically afford a lot of live football, ESPN is losing millions of subscribers each year as more people cut traditional cable. Putting Sunday Ticket on ESPN+ might erode the traditional cable bundle faster, because it will make ESPN+ a better replacement product. Disney has the goods to make a big splash but is also arguably the most exposed by paying billions for rights that ESPN relies on.

ViacomCBS and Fox

These are the most straightforward -- ViacomCBS and Fox, each of which has a market capitalization of around $20 billion (ViacomCBS about $18 billion, Fox about $22 billion), both want to renew the Sunday afternoon packages they currently have. Fox has held Sunday NFC games since 1994 and CBS has owned AFC rights since 1998. However, it’s possible that the NFL will eliminate the AFC/NFC split by network for Sunday games for this renewal, allowing either network to broadcast games with no restrictions by division.

Football is crucial to the narratives of both companies. Fox got dramatically smaller after selling the majority of its assets to Disney in a $71 billion deal last year. The new Fox is focused on news and sports and would be crippled without NFL rights. ViacomCBS needs all the valuable content it can get as it looks to compete with deep pocketed competitors.

Fox also has rights to Thursday night football and will likely bid to retain that package, one of the people said.

Of the two companies, ViacomCBS is seen as more vulnerable to lose its Sunday NFL package. LightShed’s Greenfield predicts the company will, in fact, lose its package to either ABC or NBC -- the two most likely candidates to swoop in, according to people familiar with the matter. Still, people close to ViacomCBS are adamant CBS will do whatever it takes to keep the games.

Comcast

NBCUniversal is focused on retaining Sunday Night Football, which has been the most-watched prime-time TV show for the last nine years.

Like Disney, Comcast could also challenge CBS or Fox for Sunday afternoon games.

Amazon

Amazon is most likely to simply renew its Thursday Night Football package from the last two years. Amazon has been pleased with the package as a way to entice global customers to Amazon Prime, its $119 annual subscription service that offers a variety of perks, including video content and free one-day shipping for packages to many locations.

Amazon will also consider Sunday Ticket, according to two people familiar with the matter, as a tool to get people subscribed to Prime, just as Disney is looking to use the package as an entryway into ESPN+. Amazon would be interested in a smaller package of exclusive games, such as the London and Mexico City games, if the NFL were to make that available, one of the people said.

Wild cards

It’s possible the NFL could split up Sunday Ticket rights, either between a streaming service and a traditional TV distributor (or distributors) or between several streamers. That could lessen the cost of Sunday Ticket, which AT&T has signaled both publicly and privately is too expensive to profitably renew at $1.5 billion per year. DAZN, the subscription sports streaming service run by former ESPN president John Skipper, would be interested in Sunday Ticket if the league were to sell non-exclusive streaming rights separately, one of the people said. Apple TV+ and YouTube TV could take a look at Sunday Ticket as well.

It’s also possible the NFL will carve out non-exclusive streaming rights to Sunday packages, though this seems less likely given the enormous increase traditional media players intend to spend on broadcast rights.

Overall, the NFL could double its annual revenue from NFL media rights from about $7.5 billion to $15 billion, said people familiar with the matter. Most of this is likely to occur with the tech giants largely sitting on the sidelines. That means traditional media can hold on to positions of power for the rest of the decade. But it also means the NFL knows it has all the leverage in these discussions, and will likely wring every drop of money it can from desperate media companies who simply can’t afford to lose the most popular thing on television.

Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, which is the parent company of CNBC.

RamsOfCastamere said:

Rapp's play verses the Cowboys and 9ers really set back my opinion of him. I hope he's better in coverage this year.

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That 9er game was freakin killer, but wtf was RAMsey thinking on 3-16 ? To have them 3-16 twice as well.

Really enjoyed the love of Brockers,Fowler,Clay, & Donald during that series. Ram fans that want to blame the young O”Line need to know how close The Rams were to making the playoffs. Dallas was an awaking call though.

Welp! Sure looks like Jalen likes the idea a whole lot!!


Jalen Ramsey making push for Lions' Darius Slay to Rams; Slay says playing with Ramsey 'would be so unfair'
Slay appears open to the idea of playing with Ramsey

• 
• by Jeff Kerr
• @JeffKerrCBS
• 6 hrs ago • 2 min read

The Los Angeles Rams made a blockbuster trade heading into last season's trade deadline, acquiring Jalen Ramsey from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now Ramsey is doing some recruiting of his own, wanting another All-Pro cornerback to line up with him in the Rams' secondary.
Ramsey tweeted Saturday the potential of pairing with Darius Slay in the Rams secondary with him. While Ramsey said he was "just having fun" in the tweet, the statement made its way over to Slay.

sLAy RAMSey cornerback duo @_bigplayslay23 #ImJustThrowingThatOutThere #JustHavingFun lol
— Jalen Ramsey (@jalenramsey) February 23, 2020

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Slay wasn't against the idea of joining Ramsey in Los Angeles, embracing the potential of forming arguably the league's best cornerback duo.

That would be so unfair 2.0 an Bigplay!!!! #Clamps https://t.co/BsA9y6lMEx
— Darius Slay (@_bigplayslay23) February 23, 2020

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Slay will be the biggest name on the trade market this offseason, especially since the Detroit Lions are listening to trade offers for the Pro Bowl cornerback with a year left on his current contract. Slay has been tasked with covering the opposing team's No. 1 wide receiver over the past several seasons. Even battling a hamstring injury in 2019 couldn't slow Slay down as opposing quarterbacks had just an 81.6 passer rating when targeting Slay, who led the team with two interceptions and 13 passes defensed. In Slay's First- Team All-Pro season of 2017, he led the NFL with eight interceptions and 26 passes defensed.

Getting Slay would be a huge asset for the Rams, but the cupboard is bare in terms of draft picks they would need to acquire him. Among the high draft picks, Los Angeles has just one second, one third and three fourth-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft and one second and one third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft as a a result of various trades made to acquire star players.
The Rams traded a 2020 first-round pick, a 2021 first-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick to acquire Ramsey last October and haven't made a first-round pick since Jared Goff in 2016. Their 2017 first-round pick went to the Tennessee Titans in the Goff trade and the 2018 first-round pick went to the New England Patriots in the Brandin Cooks deal. The Rams traded out of the first round in 2019.
Trading for Slay would require significant draft capital to the Lions, which is what the Rams don't have at this moment. Detroit will likely want to acquire a first-round pick if it can, which Los Angeles doesn't have until 2022.
Wishful thinking to get Slay to the Rams, but Los Angeles doesn't appear to have the draft picks it needs to land him.

Yes, hard to really know how our good Oline was at end of season last year as we started to use QB roll outs quite a bit.

It's something we did in 2017 and got away from in 2018 and 2019.

Got the push on the early game but won HUGE on the boxing match tonight TY @flv

16 new drills coming to NFL Scouting Combine

The NFL Scouting Combine's shift to prime time isn't the only major change we'll see in Indianapolis during the week.

Some of the on-field action is going to look different, too.

There will be 16 new drills introduced to the position-specific workouts and 10 existing drills eliminated as a result of the changes. Defensive backs will see the most changes, with more than 50 percent of their combine workout featuring new tests.

Each new drill is explained by position group below.

Quarterbacks

NEW: End zone fade routes added to routes thrown, timed smoke/now route drill

End zone fade: Quarterbacks will throw passes to receivers running 10-yard fade routes to the right side of the end zone, creating a need for the use of pylons in these drills. The route addition is intended to mimic a popular pass attempt seen inside the red zone, typically attempted from a snap taken close to the goal line with the target being the back corner pylon.

Timed smoke/now route drill: Quarterbacks will throw one pass to a receiver running a smoke/now route -- usually a route that is adjusted to at the line based on pre-snap reads indicating a quick completion will be available against soft coverage -- on each side consecutively.

Running backs

NEW: Duce Staley drill; Inside routes with change of direction added to routes run

Duce Staley drill: Named after the former Eagles running back and current assistant coach, the drill will involve a running back lining up behind a horizontal step-over bag that is part of three bags laid to form a cross. The running back will step over the bag in front of him, then laterally over the perpendicular bag, then backward over the other horizontal bag before repeating the path in the opposite direction. Coaches lined up eight yards away holding pop-up dummies will move in coordinated fashion, creating a hole for the running back to identify before exploding through it. The drill is designed to display a running back's ability to use his eyes while navigating physical obstacles as a ballcarrier might perform while running an inside zone play, which doesn't create a defined target for the running back, but instead the possibility for a number of options to run through.

Inside routes with change of direction: As angle (or Texas) routes become more common in the passing game with running backs used as receivers increasingly often, this drill will measure a running back's ability to run such a route and catch a pass successfully while fighting against his own momentum.

ELIMINATED: Pitch and cone drill, find the ball drill

Receivers

NEW: End zone fade route

End zone fade: Quarterbacks will throw passes to receivers running 10-yard fade routes to the right side of the end zone, creating a need for the use of pylons in these drills. The route addition is intended to mimic a popular pass attempt seen inside the red zone, typically attempted from a snap taken close to the goal line with the target being the back corner pylon. For receivers, this will display how well they can locate and track the ball before making the catch and keeping both feet in bounds in a tight area.

ELIMINATED: Toe tap drill

Tight ends

NEW: End zone fade route

End zone fade: Quarterbacks will throw passes to receivers running 10-yard fade routes to the right side of the end zone, creating a need for the use of pylons in these drills. The route addition is intended to mimic a popular pass attempt seen inside the red zone, typically attempted from a snap taken close to the goal line with the target being the back corner pylon. As is the case for receivers, this will measure how well tight ends can locate and track the ball before making the catch and keeping both feet in bounds in a tight area.

ELIMINATED: Toe tap drill

Offensive line

NEW: New mirror drill, new screen drill

New mirror: Player lines up at set point between middle of two cones roughly six yards apart and slides laterally left and right based on coach's direction. Drill places emphasis on feet and change of direction ability of player with at least four movements to right and left.

New screen: Player will set in pass protection position, then release and sprint toward first coach holding blocking shield 15 yards wide of starting point to simulate engage and release action of a screening lineman. If the first coach steps upfield, player must adjust direction and advance to second coach, at whom he will break down and engage. If first coach remains stationary, player will break down and engage him (and will not advance to second coach).

Miscellaneous: Pull drills will include engaging a one-man sled instead of a bag. Inclusion of "rabbit" is eliminated in pass rush drops and pass pro mirror drill, with a coach's hand motion changing direction of lateral slide in latter drill.

Defensive line

NEW: Run and club drill, run the hoop drill

Run and club: Five stand-up bags are in a vertical line, five yards apart, with the final bag including "arms". The defender will fire out of a three-point stance and run through the bags, clubbing the first with his right arm, spinning on the second bag, clubbing the third bag with his left arm, ripping through the fourth bag and flattening downhill to slap bag with arms to simulate a strip.

Run the hoop: Two pass-rush hoops are laid on the ground two yards apart, forming a figure eight. Two towels are inside the hoops, one in each. The player lines up at a start cone (to right of hoops) in a three-point stance, fires off at movement of a ball on a stick (simulating snap), runs around the first hoop, picks up the towel with his left hand, crosses to the second hoop and drops the towel, continues around the second hoop, picks up the towel with the right hand and crosses back to the first hoop and drops the towel before finishing through the start cone.

ELIMINATED: Stack and shed drill

Linebackers

NEW: Shuffle, sprint, change of direction drill; short zone breaks drill

Shuffle, sprint, change of direction: In a measure of a player's quickness and agility, the defender will start in a two-point stance five to seven yards outside the hash before shuffling across the field. He'll then open his hips and sprint on the coach's command, then change direction on command and finish with a catch of a thrown football.

Short zone breaks: Three different route reactions are involved here. First, the player drops at a 45-degree angle, flattens out at five yards and breaks forward (simulating breaking on a short out) before catching a ball. Then, the player drops at a 45-degree angle, flattens at five yards again and breaks inside (simulating breaking on an underneath route) and catches the ball. Finally, the player takes a flat drop and reacts to a coach's signal to turn and run with a wheel route before catching a ball.

ELIMINATED: Pass drop

Defensive backs

NEW: Line drill, Teryl Austin drill, box drill, gauntlet drill

Line: This one will look familiar. Players will back pedal, open their hips at the direction of the coach, return to back pedaling, then open the hips again on command, the catch ball being thrown from opposite location of coach.

Teryl Austin: The drill named after the Steelers secondary coach includes two parts. First, a player will back pedal five yards, then open and break downhill on a 45 degree angle before catching a thrown ball. Then a player will back pedal five yards, open at 90 degrees and run to the first coach and break down, then plant and turn around (180 degrees) to run toward a second coach and catch a ball from thrown by a QB before reaching the second coach.

Box: The player will back pedal five yards and then break at a 45 degree angle on the coach's signal. Once he reaches the cone, the player will plant, open his hips and run back five yards with his eyes on the coach. On the coach's signal, the player will break toward a coach at a 45 degree angle and catch a thrown ball.

Gauntlet: This one is essentially the same drill run by receivers. A player will start with two stationary catches with each made in opposite directions before sprinting across the 35-yard line catching balls from throwers alternating between each side. The drill will be timed from the second stationary catch to when the defensive back reaches a cone 10 yards upfield from the final catch. The player will also perform in a second time in the opposite direction.

ELIMINATED: Close and speed turn, pedal and hip turn

Not a tatt I know, but this made me smile.

Mojo Ram said:

They could go that route but i'd lean towards bringing in another vet like they did in '18 with CJ.

Some old but interesting names out there.
LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore(who is chasing Walter Payton & Emmitt Smith), Chris Thompson(who played for McV in WASH).

I wonder where Carlos Hyde ends up. Just spitballing here, but with Henderson who needs to develop...i think a vet RB could be the way to go. Maybe that vet pushes Gurley into another good season.

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I'd do backflips if they brought in CJ. He is still a really nice fit for that SR type role in this offense.

But yeah I think all options are on the table. The Rams are definitely going to add to that room just a question of how.

Ram65 said:

What does the Director of Football Operations for the Rams do?

Good Luck Sophie whatever your job entails?

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den-the-coach said:

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Did you know:

Love it!

Still can't believe Gabe never gets a nod for the HOF....

The Rams need to draft a WR early.Look a for Cooks to get 1,000 yards in 2020

hard to know who has a difficult schedule since teams rise and fall so much.

Memento said:

I absolutely guarantee that they'll at least draft a center. This class is the best I've ever seen for centers. Biadasz, Muti, Ruiz, Hennessey, Cushenberry, Harris, etc. We'd be stupid not to draft a center, especially with Allen's problems.

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I might have to agree ??

FaulkSF said:

You forget the great Superbowl winning Tony Banks?

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Small hands and slow feet....I can't forget Banks.

Riverumbbq said:

Perhaps so, but not always with so many relevant starters as the Rams are potentially losing this season. A limited CAP with Fowler, Littleton, Whitworth & Brockers possibly being lost will have an impact. How deep into the restructure business the Rams choose to go in retaining them or replacing them with outside free agents will also have an immediate and future impact on the team.

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Bottom line here is I am tired of the hand wringing and stupidity around the cap. Way too many people acting like big cap space is some amazing thing. Rams have enough room to maneuver and fix their holes, question is will they hit the choices. Acting like they're a fucking wildcard team treading water pisses me off. Anyone who agrees, so be it, not sweating that. Just think it's way overdone with the hand wringing around it and that caters to the morons in the media.

TexasRam said:

Brockers ain’t coming back. We have higher priorities.

Gaines didn’t get enough snaps to project
How good of an NFL player he will be, but when I reviewed his limited snaps I was impressed.

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I am fully in line with your thoughts here on Mr. Micheal Brockers "One outstanding & true professional NFL player of the highest order"!

Obviously, I am a big Brockers fan I love his style, passion for the Rams & the game. He was one of the better Snead first round draft selections ....outside Aaron Donald of course! I would desire to have his return & pay out his entire career as a Ram.

However, It's my belief his game day overall performance can greatly benefit by moving to a standard 43 Defense. A NFL team who has a very young inexperienced interior DL would receive big dividends in investing in this 29 yr old DT. MB can play both interior DL posts & play when the needed any of the specialized responsibilities that any DC would dream up. His experience offers much more elsewhere than in LA with the Rams & thus his payday rewards will be much bigger & well-earned for him & his family!

I would imagine that Snead scouts have been burning up overtime hrs on 2020 prospective 5 tech DL'ers who will fit the desires of new DC Brandon Staley on day 2 & 3 of the draft. In addition, Snead has options outside the draft. Under contract last year rookie 5 tech Marquise Copeland & possible the larger edge Rusher who was on injured reserve in 2019 Justin Lawler. Lawler is very solid against the run but offers little pass rush wise. Snead also might offer long time Ram veteran 5th yr Morgan Fox the low cost RFA tender for one more season.

Other options is the other non starting DL'ers who have seen NFL action like Tanzel Smart/ SJD & Gaines can play the 5 tech post if needed.

All my opinion but Brady will return to NE for a couple more years. Chargers would be a waste of talent since they had Rivers and still never managed to accomplish much. With a new HC in Carolina and a high draft pick I think Rhule drafts his QB but signs Newton to a year or two deal until the new QB is ready. It would be an immediate upgrade for Tampa and Chicago. Chicago's not so great OL will still hold them back.

RamFan503 said:

Hmmmmm.... Sundresses and thunderstorms? May have to rethink the whole tournament thing.

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It’s really an underrated place for checking out babes

High quality and lots of ‘em

Cal, AZ, Florida, Texas... blonde hair, tans and boobs

WestCoastRam said:

Look, I get if Noteboom had not been injured, the majority of this convo would be moot. But things aren't perfect.

And hoping and praying that either Evans or Edwards could even be as good as a declining Whitworth is a tall freaking order. Not as good as Whitworth... but as good as a declining Whitworth!

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Whitworth would be retiring if he thought he was going to be declining. The penalties that were called on him this season we’re borderline. He still has a lot to The Rams organization.
Whitworth will be a Hall of Famer and depending on how the season goes may go in as a Ram ? It’s still funny that McVay is younger than Big Whit and looks up to him in many of ways.

Here is some of the sideline action with Gurley and Spruce.

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