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Patriots turn busts into contributors for Super Bowl run

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/01/malcolm-butler-new-england-patriots-super-bowl-nfl-mailbag

The Patriots’ Surprise Star
Malcolm Butler was a bottom-of-the-roster player heading into New England’s last Super Bowl. Now he’s getting top billing, and maybe the toughest assignment, against the Falcons in Houston.
by Peter King

mmqb-malcolm-butler-pk.jpg

Photo: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

HOUSTON — So it has come to this for New England cornerback Malcolm Butler, who two years ago this week was as invisible as any bottom-of-the-roster player at Super Bowl 49: Microsoft approached Butler when the Patriots clinched their Super Bowl berth and asked if he’d be the Pats’ player to wear cleats designed by a fan on the field before Super Bowl 51. What?

Butler tried to process it. Fans at the NFL Experience could draw a design for the cleats on a Microsoft Surface, competing for the right to have Butler wear them on the field during warm-ups; late in the week, Butler would choose a winning design.

Malcolm Butler, in one of the NFL’s mega-partners’ major pre-game promotions? What a long strange trip it’s been for a guy who wasn’t drafted in 2014, who wasn’t one of the Patriots’ draft-weekend undrafted free agents, who earned a shot with the Patriots after a mid-May tryout that year when the team had a couple of camp slots left.

“Life has changed,” said Butler, who has written one of the most compelling stories in recent NFL history. “It’s changed a lot, a whole lot.”

This week, Butler is part of the biggest matchup question of the Super Bowl: How will the Patriots defend Julio Jones? At 5-11 and 180 pounds, Butler has not often been matched against the redwoods of NFL receivers, and Jones is four-and-a-half-inches taller and 40 pounds heavier than Butler.

The Patriots could use the 6-1, 207-pound Eric Rowe, or ever the 5-11, 192-pound Logan Ryan, plus a feisty safety like Patrick Chung, to try to limit the potential Atlanta game-wrecker.

Rowe is actually not a bad guess. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged 53 snaps a game, including 61 in the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh. Ryan leads the Patriots in snaps against the slot receiver; that means he could be matched against one of the league’s best in the slot in 2016, Atlanta’s Mohamed Sanu.

Somehow, some way, the Patriots will figure a way to matchup against Jones … and you know that Bill Belichick won’t get lost in this single matchup. He knows that when Jones is a non-factor (Jones missed two games with injuries in 2016, and was held to 35 receiving yards or less in four others), Atlanta’s still very diverse on offense, and very good: 6-0 in fact, averaging 37.0 points per game.

“He can do everything, and he likes to block too,” Butler said. “Best wide receiver in the NFL, and you never hear him complain about anything whether he gets the ball or not.”

The guess here, and that’s all it is, would by Ryan and a safety on Jones, Chung on the back leaking out of the backfield, and Butler handling some of the Sanu duty. But we shall see.

Now, back to the Butler story. Two years ago, when he jumped the Ricardo Lockette route and picked off the Russell Wilson pass at the New England goal line, with Seattle needing one yard in three downs to score the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl, Butler’s life changed. Forever.

I’ll never forget seeing Butler in the locker room afterward, looking legitimately dazed by the turn of events. During the week, no one had interviewed him. No one in the media was even sure he’d be active for the game, never mind playing at crunch time after cornerback Kyle Arrington had been benched for getting beat too much. On his 18th snap of the Super Bowl, Butler made history.

“I went from NFL player to one of the well-known NFL players, in one play,” Butler said. “I was surrounded after the game … [Owner] Mr. [Robert] Kraft gave me a kiss on the cheek. He said to me, ‘My guy! So glad you’re a part of this team.’ When you make big plays, the boss is going to like you. If I didn’t make that play, you know what would have happened—I probably would have been on the coach’s tape for not being able to handle big situations in big-time games.”

I wondered: “What did Bill Belichick ever say to you about the play?”

“He used it on teaching tapes with the squad,’’ Butler said. “Then, shortly after the Super Bowl, he said to me, ‘Long way from West Alabama, huh?’ And he smiled. That was about it.

“It does feel unreal to me, especially where I came from. Division II to the New England Patriots, last cornerback on the roster all season, go out in the biggest game of the year, on the biggest play of the game, make one of the biggest plays in NFL history. Then, come back the next year, accomplish a few things, and then, this year, back in the Super Bowl. It is amazing sometimes when I think about it. Sometimes it does feel unreal.”

But …

“The dream world is over. We got a game to play.” Spoken like a Belichick player.

Report: Top 3 Offseason Needs: Los Angeles Rams

You're missing the bigger picture here. Tavon is a Swiss Army knife. He can be a WR, RB, PR, KR. Brian Quick is just a bad receiver. That's all he is. Plus, Austin has scored 23 total touchdowns compared to Quicks 10 in one less season. I don't know how this is a sound argument.
I know the big picture, but looking even bigger, we are what, last place, second last place offensively?

The focus of developing the play from the backfield so much has hurt this team, a relic of the Fisher era in a passing league, and it's no secret that the league has figured out how to stop us.

The main threat is your quarterback, and the main decoy to that threat is your running back. Adding a third threat to your backfield on a consistent basis really just allows defenses to focus their attack on the backfield, essentially making things worse for the quarterback, especially when your only viable threat outside is Britt, which when you think about it really makes Britt kind of special to this team.

Anyway, to me the other thing hurting this team is the high number of targets to a guy who's a league leader in drops, because we all know that this is a team that just can't afford to squander missed opportunities on offense.

It's not a knock on the kid personally, but his value to this team just isn't what they need or worth what they're paying. Of course it's a forgone conclusion that McVay has no loyalty to a draft choice from a previous regime that isn't working out.

Man did the NCAA get it wrong again?

Ha ha. No, I was about done with it too.

As a fan of a Big Ten team that usually lost to Michigan and Ohio State since joining, and recently seeing both schools land probably the two best possible coaches in College Football, not named Saban, the frustration has me to the point where I pretty much hate both schools nowadays. Sucks too because I actually used to like Ohio State and Michigan before PSU joined the B1G.
My father is a PSU fan growing up out of Pennsylvania and we give eachother grief over it all. It was a huuuuge relief getting Harbaugh to leave the NFC West and into the spot in Ann Arbor. It was amazingly just perfect!

It really is a shame what has happened to Penn State football with all that crap but it was seriously nice to see you guys do better this year. I can't stand the Buckeyes or their fans. Remind me so much of Seattle fans... band wagon pos's!

Funny story I grew up in New Mexico and obviously no where near Michigan to become a fan. My step father was a Rams fan and he passed me down the football fandom but I knew they played on the weekends and they had yellow strips on their helmets but confused the Wolverine helmet from the Rams. Obviously this was corrected and told to me but as I got older I always followed the Wolverines since their helmets were similar to the Rams! Lol

Qb competition

Mannion has gotten the short end of the stick so far. Rams use a 3rd rounder for him and he has only seen the field for 6 or 7 snaps. I doubt there are many 3rd rounders that have made the 53 man roster as many years as Mannion that have seen the field less.

Well the scouting report did say that Mannion was a 5-6th round player, and other than Winston and Mariota every other QB in the class (Mannion was the 4th QB taken of 6) was projected as a backup at best... So he's basically right where he should be...

The Falcons Are the New “Greatest Show on Turf”

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-atlanta-falcons-breakthrough-here-teaches-us

It was almost impossible to predict the Falcons ... so who could be next?
Bill Barnwell/ESPN Staff Writer

If somebody who isn't a Falcons fan expected to see Atlanta lining up on the side of the field for Sunday's Super Bowl, they've done a great job of hiding their prediction.

None of the 42 ESPN experts predicted that the Falcons would make it out of the NFC playoffs and into Super Bowl LI. They weren't alone. Not one of 20 NFL.com folks predicted the Falcons would win the NFC South, let alone make it to the Super Bowl. The same was true for CBS and the MMQB. You get the idea.

Of course, it would have been crazy for anyone to predict that an 8-8 Falcons team would make the Super Bowl the following season, which is why predictions are so often useless. And yet, nearly six months later, here we are. The Falcons are no fluke. They've dominated in the postseason thus far, beating Seattle and Green Bay by an average of 19.5 points. Regardless of what happens Sunday, Dan Quinn's team has dramatically defied expectations.

Since that's the case, though, what was everyone missing? How and why did the Falcons blow away even the rosiest outlook for their 2016? And perhaps more importantly, what does the success of the Falcons tell us about which non-playoff teams might be in line to make a similarly unexpected leap next season? Let's look at some of the factors that led Atlanta to its conference championship and find out ...

The reason: A lot can happen in a 16-game season.

This isn't news, of course, but we often forget just how much variance comes into play from a schedule that is less than 20 percent the length of the NBA campaign and less than 10 percent the length of the major league baseball season.

As a result, we get a much smaller window into a team's true level of talent. There were several 16-game stretches during the Cubs' 2016 championship campaign in which Kris Bryant & Co. went 5-11. A team that went 103-59 over the entire campaign, winning 63.6 percent of its games, at one point had a 1-9 run.

As I mentioned, the Falcons were no fluke -- they outscored their opponents by a combined 134 points, good for a 10.6-win Pythagorean expectation. Even if we believe that their true talent level is that of a team that will win an average of 10.6 games if we could simulate the 2016 NFL season a billion times, though, a lot can go wrong (or right) over one measly 16-game stretch.

We can use the binomial distribution to estimate just how things could have gone for a 10.6-win team like the Falcons. Atlanta actually won 11 games this season, which isn't necessarily surprising, as the most likely outcome for a 10.6-win team would naturally be to win 11 games. That would occur 20.7 percent of the time, and the Falcons would win 11 or more games in 53.4 percent of simulations.

And 5.6 percent of the time, a team of this caliber would win 14 or more games. On the flip side, though, a team can play excellent football and still (at least theoretically) struggle to win games. There's a 5.4 percent chance a team with Atlanta's Pythagorean expectation would post a losing record.

Hate this level of randomness? Try hoops. Teams are far less likely to put up similarly impressive win rates over a longer season. The equivalent to an 11-win NFL season, in terms of winning percentage, would be a 56.4-win NBA campaign.

A team with that Pythagorean expectation would make it to 56 wins or more only 39.9 percent of the time, a significant drop from the 53.4 percent case over a 16-game sample. It would also post a losing season only 0.1 percent of the time, down from 5.4 percent in football.

2017 candidates: everyone else

We grossly underestimate just how much randomness impacts each NFL season, even though we know that nearly half the teams (48.2 percent) who make the playoffs in a given year have failed to make the postseason the following year since the league went to its current playoff structure in 2002. It's way easier for a team to make a leap over 16 games than it is over 82 or 162. The shorter the schedule, the more likely it is teams will do something totally unexpected.

The reason: The division broke their way.

The Falcons went 5-1 in the NFC South for just the third time since the division was created in 2002. It came one year after they went 1-5 in the division in 2015. It also represents the entirety of their improvement, given that the Falcons were 6-4 in non-division games this season after going 7-3 in those contests in 2015.

Several critical factors that have little to do with Atlanta broke in the Falcons' favor. The Panthers, 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer last season, regressed toward the mean and went 2-6 in those same contests this season.

They weren't able to sign star cornerback Josh Norman and allowed him to leave for free (minus a compensatory pick that they'll make this year), the driving factor in dropping their defense from second in DVOA to 10th. Perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Luke Kuechly missed six games, while MVP Cam Newton also dropped off, owing to injuries and a collapsing offensive line.

The Saints and Buccaneers were competitive, but the Panthers were expected to be the class of the division after winning the South in each of the three previous seasons. It might have been reasonable to predict that the Panthers would decline in 2016, but nobody could have expected them to decline by nine wins. Their first-to-worst fall-off opened up the division for the Falcons, just as a nine-win decline by the 2013 Falcons created an opportunity for Carolina.

2017 candidates: Cardinals, Washington, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, Colts

There are other teams that might qualify -- a lot of divisions are suddenly winnable when their only team with a winning record drops off by nine wins -- but the midtier teams around the league are the ones that stand to benefit from this, specifically in divisions in which the champion has question marks.

It's still not totally clear that Earl Thomas and Ben Roethlisberger are going to return in 2017, and they would fundamentally change their teams' respective outlooks upon retirement. The Cowboys were 7-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. The Texans were 8-2 in those same contests.

Even perennial standouts like the Patriots and Packers are one serious quarterback injury away from looking like totally different teams, especially if the Patriots trade away Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason. It's too early to make predictions about which teams will specifically decline in 2017, but history tells us one or more of those division champs will fall into the top 10 of the 2018 draft.

The reason: They were relatively healthy.

The Patriots might have been the healthiest team in football this season, but the Falcons also made it through the season relatively unscathed, particularly on offense. Atlanta's 11 offensive starters missed a total of 11 games, eight of which came from Jacob Tamme, who was ably replaced by Austin Hooper and Levine Toilolo. Crucially, the Falcons' offensive line made it through all 16 games without missing a start, the only group in the league to go 80-for-80 in 2016.

The Falcons had more injury issues on defense, where they notably lost star cornerback Desmond Trufant to a torn pectoral muscle in November. It's also true that present doesn't always mean healthy, given that superstars Julio Jones and Alex Mack will both be playing through ailments in the Super Bowl.

The Falcons were also exceedingly healthy on offense during the 2015 season, when they finished second in the league in adjusted games lost on the offensive side of the ball. Given how valuable their offense was in pushing them to the Super Bowl, though, the Falcons needed all hands on deck and mostly had them around.

2017 candidates: Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Panthers

The Chargers and Vikings are the obvious candidates for teams that could benefit from being healthy. Minnesota lost Teddy Bridgewater before the season started, spent virtually the entire year without Adrian Peterson, and saw an already-questionable offensive line disintegrate. The Vikings' defense held out for most of the season but finally gave way once Harrison Smith suffered a high-ankle sprain. And it would be easier to make a list of the players who managed to stay healthy for the Chargers, who had just seven of their projected starters on Day 1 of training camp start 16 games.

The reason: Alex Mack had an exponential impact on the offense's effectiveness.

It's almost impossible to judge offensive line play as a layman and account for an individual player's performance, especially on the interior, but all accounts (and observations) suggest the Falcons made a massive upgrade at center. They swapped out replacement-level center Michael Person, who didn't play a single snap in the NFL this season after starting 14 games at the pivot in 2015, for Mack, who might have been the best center in football.

Mack made both the offensive linemen and the offense as a whole better, as Robert Mays noted for The Ringer. Making an enormous improvement at one position doesn't necessarily guarantee success, given that players can decline, get hurt or be suspended, as Chicago's additions of Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker made clear, but Mack worked out as well as any free agent in recent memory. Free agency is often a fool's errand, but teams with a competent offense or defense and one glaring hole will look to emulate what Atlanta did this offseason.

2017 candidates: Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cardinals, Panthers, Vikings

Plenty of contenders were frustrated all season by major offensive line holes, notably the Bengals (right tackle) and Panthers (left tackle), while the others on this list had broader concerns up front. It won't be as simple as signing a player such as Mack and letting him do his thing, but teams are going to see what the Falcons did this season and pay a premium to add players like Kevin Zeitler, T.J. Lang and Ronald Leary this offseason.

The reason: They had a much better offensive coordinator than people realized.

Kyle Shanahan has rightly received a lot of credit for Atlanta's success on offense this season, and his playcalling and ability to scheme Atlanta's secondary receivers open this season have been enormously valuable during Shanahan's second year at the reins.

This time last year, though, Shanahan was closer to the unemployment line than he was to an NFL head-coaching gig. He took the brunt of the blame for Atlanta's disappointing season after a 5-0 start, leading to fans petitioning for his job, while Roddy White blamed Shanahan for "screwing up" Atlanta's offense.

Remember: It was a story in itself when the Falcons decided to bring Shanahan back last year.

At the time, nobody was questioning Shanahan's spot on the hot seat. His résumé as an offensive coordinator was spotty; after two solid years in Houston, Shanahan had mostly struggled during four years under his father in Washington, finishing 23rd or worse in scoring three out of his four years on the job, with Robert Griffin's rookie year (in what some construed afterward as a "gimmick" offensive scheme) the lone exception. Shanahan then spent one middling season in Cleveland before resigning and heading to Atlanta, where he oversaw Matt Ryan's worst season by either passer rating or QBR since 2009.

Now, a year later, the story has changed. We note how Shanahan never really had a steady quarterback before Ryan, how he struggled with an injured Griffin, a premature Kirk Cousins, and the overmatched duo of Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer. He gets credit for developing Cousins now that the Washington quarterback has turned into an above-average starter. Shanahan's complex scheme was a problem last season, when Ryan "was overwhelmed" by the offense, but now it's portrayed as a strength.

In reality, Shanahan wasn't as bad a coach as the story made him out to be after 2015, and he's probably not as incredible as the stories you're reading about him now portray him. He's somewhere in the middle, but that's a massive improvement versus the liability some thought Shanahan was before this season.

2017 candidates: Vikings, Eagles, Colts, Raiders

We're almost always too quick to judge coaches. It would take only one great year for coordinators like Pat Shurmur and Ken Norton Jr. to rebuild their reputations.

The reason: There was an MVP lurking at quarterback.

Shanahan's renaissance might have been more likely than Matt Ryan's showing up as an MVP candidate. Ryan had struggled for three years after his 2012 peak, tossing 47 interceptions between 2013 and 2015 while often making questionable decisions with the football. Ryan was still a decent quarterback, of course, but he had appeared to both hit his ceiling and settle far below said ceiling.

Instead, Ryan set career-best marks in just about every category, reminding us that we are often overconfident in judging quarterbacks, too. Some players have typical career paths, but it's foolish to assume most passers are going to keep improving until they hit age 28 and start a slow decline from that point forward. That may be true of quarterbacks as a species, but individual players can have all kinds of odd careers. Ryan's stunning season is a testament to that fact.

2017 candidates: Dolphins, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Saints, Lions, Vikings

While we would expect younger quarterbacks like Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston to continue improving, it's reasonable to look at passers like Drew Brees and Joe Flacco and assume that we've already seen the best years of their careers. In most cases, we'll be right. Ryan and the Falcons proved this season, though, that exceptions to the rules of aging curves can drive shockingly great seasons.

Peter King: MMQB - 1/30/17

These are excerpts. To read the whole article click the link below.
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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/01/30/robert-kraft-patriots-nfl-super-bowl-51-falcons-peter-king

Robert Kraft Made a ‘Mistake’ and Turned It Into a Dynasty
The story of how the Pats owner ignored some bad advice to kick-start an era of NFL dominance. Plus why the 49ers hired John Lynch to be GM, a TV legend signs off and more from Houston as Super Bowl week begins
by Peter King

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Robert Kraft/Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

There is only one word to describe what happened Sunday night, on Super Bowl Week eve: wow. The 49ers hired Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist John Lynch to be their general manager, shocking the football world, as the partner for likely new Niners coach Kyle Shanahan.

Well, maybe one other word: risky. “Neither of those guys are afraid of failure, and I’m not either,” club CEO Jed York told me as the clock neared midnight Sunday. Heck of a story, to be told after another story, a truly historic one.


NEW YORK — “Sweetheart,” New England owner Robert Kraft said to me the other day, in his 11th-floor apartment with the view of all views of Central Park, “I’ve got a little factoid for you this week.”

The owner of the Super Bowl-bound Patriots had a big smile when he said it. Seems that a few days earlier, the night before the AFC Championship Game, Kraft had a small dinner party at his home in the posh Boston suburb of Brookline. A video was shown. Three young defensive players—Elandon Roberts, Vincent Valentine and Malcom Brown—came into view and said in unison, “Mr. Kraft! We weren’t born when you bought the team!” He purchased the Patriots in January 1994; they were born in the next three months.

“Twenty-three seasons,” Kraft mused. “Nineteen years in the playoffs. Two years under .500. Twelve conference championship games. Eight Super Bowls. I feel pretty proud.”

Kraft is right in pointing out this extended run of greatness, because it’s unlike any in team sports over the past quarter-century. To make it happen—to make the Patriots the kind of dominant franchise that is so counter to every tenet of pro football, to send the Patriots to the favorite’s role in another Super Bowl this week—the most important thing Kraft did happened nearly two decades ago.

It was the kind of against-the-grain move that will go down in football history as one of the smartest decisions an owner has made.

Against the grain might be putting it mildly.

In fact, one team owner, when Kraft was about to make this momentous decision, advised against it. Kraft remembers this owner’s exact words.

“He said if I did it, I’d be making the biggest mistake of my life,” Kraft said, his voice taking an ominous tone.

The owner: Art Modell of the Baltimore Ravens.

The looming catastrophe: hiring Bill Belichick.

* * *

So there’s a lot going on this United States this morning, and I don’t mean the start of Super Bowl week in Houston. But since this is (mostly) a football column, let’s get to the nuts and bolts of these strangers, Atlanta and New England, meeting in Super Bowl 51. Namely:

• Will the Vengeance-Thy-Name-is-Patriots and Roger Goodell co-exist without fisticuffs this week? (They will.)

• Will Patriots corner Malcolm Butler shadow all-world Julio Jones on Sunday? (I doubt it.)

• Will the Falcons be able to win if Jones is shut down? (The numbers say: without a doubt, yes.)

• Will Tom Brady become the winningest quarterback in the Super Bowl era? (Give me a couple of days to ruminate on that one.)

• And is this the year (with voting looming Saturday) for Terrell Davis to make the Hall of Fame? Or Kurt Warner? Or both, in a class devoid of automatics outside (probably) of LaDainian Tomlinson? (It’s clearly the best shot yet for both.)

We start high above Central Park, 11 afternoons before the Super Bowl. Kraft ducked into the other room at one point to speak with Tom Brady. But for most of two hours on this unseasonably warm January afternoon, the Patriots’ owner reflected on the franchise of our time—hated by many, envied by 31 owners, beloved by six states and the president of the United States (who called Kraft with congratulations 24 hours after the AFC Championship rout of the Steelers), and respected by those who understand how hard it is to post 16 straight winning National Football League seasons.

My favorite Kraft line was about money. “The key to success in business, and the key to life, really, is creating aligned interests with smart people,” he said. “Winning football games has been more important to me than making money. Winning is what turns me on. Money is pretty good, but a shroud has no pockets.”

My favorite Kraft story was about the Belichick hire.

It happened 17 years ago this month, the drama that caused a rift between Belichick and his mentor, Bill Parcells; that caused Belichick to resign as the coach of the Jets within two days of assuming the position; that caused Belichick to sue the NFL and the Jets for not allowing him to coach elsewhere; that prevented Dom Capers from being the coach of the 2000 New England Patriots; and that caused bitter rivals (the Jets and Patriots) to exchange Belichick and five draft choices in the biggest trade for a coach in history.

In short: Belichick was an assistant on Parcells’ Jets staff, and his contract (buttressed by a $1 million bonus from then-owner Leon Hess) called for him to succeed Parcells when Parcells stepped down as coach. Which happened on the night of Jan. 2, 2000, after the Jets finished the 1999 season with a win over Seattle. Parcells’ resignation was announced the following day (he would remain director of football operations).

The Patriots filed a request with the league on the morning of Jan. 3 to interview Belichick for their vacant coaching job (after firing Pete Carroll), but were denied, because the clause in Belichick’s contract tied him to the Jets. The next day Belichick quit due to uncertainty surrounding the sale of the team to Woody Johnson (smart move) and his distaste for non-football-man president Steve Gutman.

The Jets hired Al Groh to coach the team. But they wouldn’t let Belichick out of his deal. The battles between the two teams, involving commissioner Paul Tagliabue and a federal court as well, lasted three weeks.

“To start,” Kraft said, “you need to understand we were without a coach for almost a month, and the other coaches had been hired around the league, and they had hired coaching staffs, and I was getting killed for it. Killed. The league office thought I was crazy for wanting Bill. Everybody in there—George Young, Joe Browne, people at the highest level of the league. It was toxic.

Nobody thought it was a good idea. I was getting killed by the media in Boston. Bill had one winning year in five seasons in Cleveland. And then I got sent video tapes of a couple of his press conferences in Cleveland.”

Proof, he saw, of Belichick’s communication skills. Or lack thereof.

“So after all that,” I said, “were you a little scared of hiring him?”

“Of course!” he said. “How could I not be? I watched those tapes!”

But Kraft remembered a couple of things. In 1996, after he was fired by Cleveland, Belichick was on the market, and Parcells lobbied for Kraft to hire him; Kraft thought Belichick, if he didn’t go to New England, would have ended up coaching on Miami’s staff in 1996. So Kraft okayed the hire, and the Patriots went to the Super Bowl that season, with Belichick’s secondary a big reason.

“I asked the defensive backs, ‘What has Bill [Belichick] brought?’ And they said he always put them in the right position to make plays.’ When Parcells left after the Super Bowl, we decided to clean house, and I met with Bill [Belichick]. Now, we had just started this era of the salary cap a couple years earlier, and to understand the salary cap was to understand value.

The one thing he said to me when he left was, ‘You should sign Troy Brown. Great value there.’ I remembered that. Here was a guy on the other side of the ball, and Bill knew how important he was. And he turned out to be right.”

With the case hung up in court, and the Jets knowing they’d get nothing if they hung on to Belichick for a season, Parcells called Kraft on the night of Jan. 26. The two men hadn’t spoken in three years, since a bitter parting after the Super Bowl season of 1996.

“My [secretary], one night, says to me, ‘Someone saying he’s Darth Vader is on the phone. Do you know who that is?’” Kraft said.

“Oh, I knew who that was.”

Said Parcells: “He was getting ready to hire Capers. I just said to him, ‘I want a 1 [a first-round pick] and something else.’ It really wasn’t that hard.”

The Patriots sent a first-round pick in 2000 and fourth-round and seventh-round picks in 2001 to the Jets for the rights to Belichick, plus a fifth-round pick in 2001 and a seventh-round pick in 2002. (None of the picks mattered but for longtime serviceable defensive lineman Shaun Ellis, taken with that first-rounder by the Jets.)

“He could have held me up for more,” Kraft said.

“I called Bill the next morning,” Parcells said. “I told him to call Kraft. I told him he should make sure to get at least four years in his contract.”

Belichick’s New England deal was announced less than 24 hours after Darth Vader’s phone call.

“I always felt we had a little bit of simpatico,” Kraft said. “It’s like a woman. A spouse. What’s right for me might not be right for some other man. In a football sense, he had product knowledge. Troy Brown. I listened. I remembered. Honestly, it was like when I bought the team. I thought I was going to pay $115 million, maybe $118, $120.

I ended up paying $172 million, the most for a team ever at that time. I broke every rule in business when I did that. But you know why I did it? It’s my hometown team. I loved that team. I knew I’d never get another chance to buy it. So with the coach, I wanted Belichick. I was getting what I wanted if I got him. I’m not thinking about the next year or two. I’m thinking about three years, five years, 10 years. He was going to be with us for a long time.”

Now he has been. And Kraft has no regrets. Four Lombardi Trophies, a few spats … and no regrets. You hear about differences inside the upper echelon of the Patriots, the kind of differences that happen when strong-willed successful people disagree. But the thing about the Patriots is, the disagreements rarely reach the front page of the Globe.

“We’re like a family,” Kraft said. “When we disagree, we disagree in private. In all my businesses, we do not tolerate division from within.”

Now for the obvious question: Won’t this one mean more?

For so many reasons, but mostly because of the war between the NFL and the Patriots over Deflategate and the Tom Brady suspension to start this year, and because of Kraft. He’s an extremely loyal league guy, but got slapped down with such an onerous sanction: a four-game suspension for his quarterback, the loss of first-round and fourth-round draft choices for the team and a $1 million fine.

“Nothing, to me, will ever top the first [Super Bowl win],” Kraft said of the 20-17 upset of the Rams that capped the 2001 season. “It’s right after 9/11. We’re red, white and blue. The Patriots. The underdog. So many people pulling for us. We’d waited 42 years for it.

“This year, to me, is life. When you want something so badly, you work for it and go through the hard times. You persevere. Our organization hasn’t made excuses. What happened was unfortunate. I don’t think it was fair, the league’s penalty on us. But it is what it is. In a way, our fan base has bonded even more with us through the hard times.

“I want Roger [Goodell] to do the right thing for the league, obviously. In this case, I don’t think he did that. He got bad advice from the people around him, and the league didn’t handle it well. But I’ve compartmentalized it. Now we try to win the biggest game of the year.”

“But,” I said, “what would it be like to stand up on the podium after the game and have Roger hand you the Lombardi Trophy?”

Pause. Kraft looked over my shoulder, out the window, toward Central Park.

“It’d be sweet.”

* * *

The Very Interesting Shanahan-Lynch Pairing

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John Lynch/Photo: Helen H. Richardson/Getty Images

Sometimes, a story that seems so preposterous when you first hear it makes more sense the longer you digest it. A preface: I’ve always thought an arranged marriage between a coach and a GM is stupid. On very rare occasions (Pete Carroll-John Schneider) it works. Most often (Josh McDaniels-Brian Xanders, Chip Kelly-Howie Roseman, Rex Ryan-John Idzik, Rex Ryan-Doug Whaley, etc.) it does not.

That’s why it seemed odd that the 49ers would place Kyle Shanahan—their coach one week from today—in a room with ace Vikings scout George Paton and then with ace Cardinals scout Terry McDonough, and then smoke would come out of the chimney and Shanahan would say about one of them: “That’s it! That’s my GM!”

It’s just not a smart way to form a partnership. So when Adam Schefter of ESPN reported that John Lynch had contacted Shanahan last week and told him he was interested in leaving TV to be a GM, and Shanahan returned the interest, the story began to make sense.

Lynch spent Thursday night with Jed York in the Bay Area, then flew to Atlanta and had four more interviewing hours with York, and then York saw him debriefed by Shanahan in an Atlanta hotel room … that’s when York thought this was real, and possible.

After going through the Shanahan sessions with Paton on Friday night and then McDonough on Saturday morning, York thought the Lynch fit was best. As did Shanahan.

Shanahan is 37. Lynch is 45. Lynch has watched John Elway go from inexperienced former star player to Super Bowl champion GM. They are friends. Lynch has enjoyed his Fox analyst work, but I am told he longed for something more, something with more substance.

Now he’ll have to figure out whom to hire and trust as his football czars in San Francisco—as Elway has, with Tom Heckert and Matt Russell in Denver. Maybe it’ll be former Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominik, or incumbent personnel man Tom Gamble in San Francisco. But Lynch is going to need help. Lots of it.

The reason why I’m not down on it? I know Lynch. He knows his limitations. He knows he needs a couple of great scouts to help him. Lots of people will recall the last Fox analyst to ascend to the throne of an NFL team without personnel training—Matt Millen in Detroit in 2001—and how miserably he failed.

This may be the same thing. If Lynch doesn’t surround himself with strong personnel people, it will be the same thing. If Lynch and Shanahan don’t find a long-term quarterback, regardless of their long contracts, they will fail in their quest to lead the 49ers out of the wilderness.

“Nothing is guaranteed,” York said late Sunday night. (He also said, “I need some sleep.”) “But so many opportunities are missed in the NFL because people don’t want to do something different. We’re okay with that, because I am confident in Kyle and John. John has watched John Elway, and how he’s built a team in Denver.

As easy as it is to say he hasn’t built a team yet—I get that—I talk to Kyle, and he says John is the most prepared of all the TV [people] he meets in the production meetings before games. We understand we’ll have to live with growing pains, but I’m willing to do that because I believe the upside with both of them is so great.”

It all sounds good—the enlightened GM, the overly bright coach—but nothing will matter until one of them picks the right quarterback to help rebuild the Niners. Knowing each man the way I do, I expect they both know it.

* * *

Bon Voyage, Brent Musburger

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Brent Musberger/Photo: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

It’s a shame that, except for two years in the mid-’90s when he hosted a halftime segment on ABC’s “Monday Night Football,” Brent Musburger hasn’t worked the NFL for a quarter-century. He was Chris Berman before Berman, the iconic host of the iconic studio show “The NFL Today,” which was appointment viewing before and during football games until CBS parted ways with Musburger in 1990.

He’s 77 now, and has been a fixture on ESPN college games for years, and he is retiring now to move to Las Vegas to work with a new sports betting network; the Las Vegas Review-Journalreported he’ll host an afternoon talk show on sports and gambling on Sirius XM Satellite Radio. His final game on ESPN is Tuesday night with Jay Bilas: Georgia at Kentucky.

“I always knew I would head back out west one day, closer to our two boys in Montana,” Musburger told me Friday. “[Sports gambling] is a growth industry, and with the Trump administration in office, it might be a chance it grows beyond the Nevada borders. People like the action, and those in the NFL who are honest realize how much the gaming factor has played into the growth of the league.”

Three questions for Musburger, from his home in Jupiter, Fla. (he’ll soon move to Nevada), yield this insight: He might not have been working football over the years, but he sure knows a lot about it. (More about my personal feelings on Musburger in Ten Things I Think I Think.)

MMQB: How much have you missed working the NFL?

Musburger: Here is what I miss. Things like this: If you give Mr. Belichick an extra week, he will take one thing away from the Falcons. Just watching the games and watching the Patriots, you learn what he does so well and why he’s such a great coach. Also: How is the money flowing? What are the bettors saying about this game? I have fun with the games, and look forward to all of them.

I miss the NFL a lot. This era of NFL players I covered in college. Matt Ryan, at Boston College … one of the most intelligent players I dealt with. Tom Brady, entirely different story. He was engaged with Drew Henson in college so often, battling for the quarterback job at Michigan. And he was … well, I did not see this coming. But the people in that league intrigue me. Can you imagine how things have changed?

Think back to my favorite photo. The photo of Joe Namath before Super Bowl III, on the beach chair, getting interviewed down in Miami. [Musburger, a radio man from Chicago, and several sportswriters were in the photo.]

My wife, Arlene, and I went to that dinner a couple nights before the game where Joe guaranteed the win. Strange thing. Not Trumpian at all. Not emotional. Just matter-of-fact. I watched the game from a photo deck at the Orange Bowl. Right next to me was Howard Cosell.

MMQB: Assuming the Raiders move to Vegas, how do you think they’ll do?

Musburger: I think it will be an enormous success, especially for the fans of the teams that play the Raiders in Las Vegas. Every season, the road fans will plan trips to Vegas to see their teams. They will find a very, very warm reception in the community. It’s a growing community, very transient. It’s a natural. Vegas has grown so much beyond the gambling, and the NFL will find that out.

MMQB: Best coach of all time: Paul Brown, Vince Lombardi, Bill Belichick?

Musburger: Such a tough call. I really wasn’t around Paul Brown in his prime. Vince Lombardi, I was around him more than any of those three. Talk about how times changed: On Saturdays before Green Bay home games in the sixties, Red Smith and some of the New York columnists, and some of the rest of us coming in for the game from out of town, we would all go to Lombardi’s house for cocktails and hors d’ouevres. And he’d be there with a drink, as jovial and engaging and as wonderful a personality as you could imagine.

Vince Lombardi! Entertaining the media the day before the game!
Somebody would ask him about his preparation, and he’d say, ‘Hay’s in the barn, young man. Nothing I can do.’ Now, Bill … Bill has mastered being a stoic. I ran into Bill down here in Jupiter last year, in a yogurt shop, with his lady friend. A social conversation with Bill lasts a minute, minute and a half, then you move down the road. But it’s so much harder to build teams now, obviously.

The free-agent era makes it much more difficult than what it used to be. I marvel at how Bill handles his roster. He gets rid of Richard Seymour and the name players. He did it this year too [with Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins] … I would say this: In the Super Bowl era, he is the best of all the coaches. The very best.”

*Bonus question: What do you think of Deflategate?

Musburger: This is what I tell people about that. Go get the play-by-play of the championship game with the Colts, when the Patriots supposedly tampered with the footballs, and the balls were changed out by the league at halftime. Look at Brady’s stats in the first half (11 for 21, 95 yards, one TD, one interception), and then look at his stats in the second half (12 of 14, 131 yards, two TDs, no interceptions). I shake my head still at how far the league went on that one.

* * *

The Falcons have five single-digit players, and all are named Matt:

2: Matt Ryan, QB
3: Matt Bryant, K
4: Matt Simms, QB (practice squad)
5: Matt Bosher, P
8: Matt Schaub, QB

Atlanta has no players between 9 and 99 named Matt.

As you’ll note, the three quarterbacks on the roster are all named Matt. Their position coach? Matt LaFleur. Which leads me to wonder when coach Dan Quinn ducks into the quarterback room and says, “Hey, Matt,” do four heads turn?

* * *

This week’s conversations: Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and legendary Boston sports writer and columnist Bob Ryan.

• Shanahan on working with his father, Super Bowl-winning coach Mike Shanahan, in Washington:

“When I was younger I always told my dad that I wanted to coach with him one day. … I had to prove myself first, and once I had a chance to prove myself, that is when I wanted to coach with him. When he got fired from Denver, kind of unexpectedly, and he had that year off, I remember telling him—I was a coordinator at Houston at this time, and we had been third in the league and things were going really well in Houston, and my dad was taking the year off because he just got fired—and I remember telling him, 'Dad, when you get back, whether it is next year or 10 years from now, college or NFL.

I realize that you aren’t going to be an NFL coach forever, and it is important to me that we coach together someday, so whenever you get back, I am going to go with you if I can.’ He came back the next year, and it was Washington, and I went there and I would never take it back. If my dad had ever passed away and I had never coached with him before, that is something that would have been real hard on me. I wish it could have gone a little bit better.

But I think it was something I needed to do. Even though it was hard, it made me stronger, and I wouldn’t take it back for anything. My dad and I have always been close, and that was the first time I ever really got to see him as a coach, being a coach, and he is a hell of a coach and I don’t regret anything.”

Ryan on how Tom Brady compares to the best basketball player he covered daily in Boston, Larry Bird:

“I'm going to tell you a Larry Bird story that I think you can apply to Brady. In 1983 the Celtics were swept in the playoffs by the Milwaukee Bucks, and it was the low point of that particular era. Bird had been sick and missed game one and never got off the mark. After game four in Milwaukee … I was there and I didn't have a deadline so I was able to hang around in the locker room after everyone had left. There were two of us left in the locker room with Larry Bird.

Larry said that he was taking this loss personally and he was going home and he was going to practice and he was going to get better and he was going to come back a better player and next year they were going to come back and win a championship. And he went home and they came back next year and he was a better player. He had a left-hand shot that he did not have before.

He had moves that he did not have before, and of course they made a big move to get Dennis Johnson, and they also changed coaches, but the point is, that is the attitude that I think Brady has always had as well. Never satisfied, he always feels that he can get better. He has the highest demands on his players, as you know with his receivers.

Do you agree with me, that it has got to be the hardest team in the league to be a wide receiver? If only because of the complexity of the offense and most specifically because of the demands of the quarterback.”

* * *

Things I Think I Think

1. I think these are my quick notes of analysis from the off-week:

a. I know one thing about the Jets’ hire of Kevin Greene as outside linebackers coach: If any 2017 Jets linebacker doesn’t love football, Greene will snuff him out.

b. Still think the best landing spot for Tony Romo is the Texans.

c. I simply cannot see Bill O’Brien starting Brock Osweiler next fall.

d. East Carolina wideout Zay Jones jumped up some draft boards with his performance during Senior Bowl practices. He made some Beckham-like catches.

e. When I wrote the other day that Mike Tomlin needs to have a tougher hand with some players on his team, I wasn’t saying that Tomlin’s lost the locker room—not even close—but rather that every coach sometimes needs a reality check about disciplining his players.

f. This is going to be a difficult and fascinating year for the Hall of Fame selections and the 48 selectors when they gather Saturday morning in Houston to pick the class of 2017.

g. Of the 14 modern-era candidates not named Tomlinson, there’s not a single one who’s close to a lock, which leads me to think (probably dubiously) that it finally could be a year where we break the safety logjam (John Lynch, Brian Dawkins and, as a senior committee finalist, Kenny Easley) that has festered in Hall voting for so long.

h. This is also the week for the NFL awards to be announced (Saturday night in Houston), and, to refresh, I’ve got Matt Ryan as MVP and Bill Belichick as coach of the year; feel good about Ryan, not so good about Belichick’s chances.

i. It still seems like a huge reach to me for the league to be doing anything but a hand-slap to Seattle for the Richard Sherman injury-report investigation, seeing that Sherman never missed a game and played in the Pro Bowl last night.

j. The object of the report is to ferret out information about players who likely will miss a game or games—which Sherman never did.

2. I think, from some viewing of the Pro Bowl (for the first time in several years), one player impressed me: Tennessee defensive tackle Jurrell Casey. Few players play this game hard. Rare players play like it’s a real game. Casey is one of the latter.

3. I think, as I wake up this morning, I am still mind-boggled at the 49ers taking the risk of the year and hiring John Lynch as GM. Hiring a coach, 37 years old, who’s never been a head coach. Hiring a GM, 45, who’s never worked in personnel. Well, Jed York wanted to buy a lottery ticket and shoot for the moon … he’s done that.

4. I think the Colts hired a very good man in Chris Ballard as GM. Always wondered why he never got a job before Jim Irsay hired him this weekend. Come to find out Ballard withdrew from some, and wanted to stay in the Midwest for family reasons, and this is the perfect shot for him. What GM who wants to win a Super Bowl wouldn’t want to have Andrew Luck as the baseline player to start?

Now Ballard is going to have to convince some great scouts—and he is very well-connected in the scouting business—to come help him build a great team around Luck. Immediately, he’s going to have to build an offensive line. There’s a fire alarm there, because Luck is the most important player on this team, and the line is D quality at best.

5. I think this is your DVR Alert of the Week: a one-hour special Thursday night at 10:30 p.m. ET on the life and broadcasting times of ESPN's Chris Berman ... including an interview with Bill Clinton, who was in in the booth when Berman and Buck Martinez had the call on Cal Ripken's Ironman game. Cool hour of TV, I'm sure. Marv Levy, Dan Patrick and Bill Belichick on the show too.

6. I owe Brent Musburger a debt of gratitude. In the mid-’90s I did NFL news updates at halftime of the Monday night game for two seasons for ABC. The first time I ever walked into the studio, on a September Monday night in 1994, I met Brent and told him I’d never done TV before. (Seems like something significant, but who I am to divine what’s important about television?) Brent being the coolest cucumber in the room, he said, “Kid, don’t worry. I’m gonna make you look good.”

And for two seasons, every time we were together, he’d ask me about the news of the day, and how we wanted to present it, and he’d say things like, “What if I set you up like this?” Sometimes we’d talk about stories and he’d tell me what would play best for a Monday night audience. In 1995, Deion Sanders, one of the game’s biggest stars, said he’d talk to me after undergoing ankle surgery in Coral Gables, Fla., and he wasn’t totally lucid for the interview; he was still slightly anesthetized, but halftime was approaching, so we had a choice to make.

Brent and the producers found a good sound bite that was Lucid Deion, and we got a good scoop. Brent knew news, and he knew you don’t embarrass people who’d gone the extra mile to do an interview with you.

7. I think I have a feeling Tom Brady Sr., won’t be doing many interviews in Houston this week. But Sunday night? After the game? All bets will be off.

8. I think Tim Graham and the Buffalo Newsare to be congratulated for their work in not letting the sad saga of concussion-ravaged kicker Bjorn Nittmo go away quietly. Graham has now written twice at length about the pain Nittmo suffered, and then inflicted on his family as he attempted to fade into darkness himself. Great piece by Graham on Saturday.

9. I think I could not be more proud of The MMQBthis week, for:

a. Emily Kaplan’s incisive and news-breaking story in which Erin Andrews opens up on the stalking scandal and her cervical cancer diagnosis.

b. Tim Rohan, on how close the Patriots’ dynasty actually came to taking place in Hartford, not Foxboro.

c. Jenny Vrentas, on the intriguing roots of Matt Ryan, and how he’s never forgotten where he’s from.

d. Robert Klemko, with an insightful story about the Patriots getting discounts from players they sign because they want to play for the Patriots so much.

e. Andy Benoit with some insight on what kind of defensive game plan to expect from the Patriots against Atlanta’s explosiveness.

f. Albert Breer with the special instructor Matt Ryan and Tom Brady both used, quietly, to get better in the offseason.

g. Photographer/videographer John DePetro and Road To Houston tour boss Kalyn Kahler, on finding real Falcons in north Georgia, and by golly, in downtown Atlanta.

Why Aaron Donald was the NFL's best pass rusher this year

How did Aaron Donald look in the pro bowl ?? Robert Quinn three years ago was a star in the new format. He was part of the drafting . What a joke it was last year as well.
The AFC vs NFC had been tradition for years.Glad to see it back this way.The players actual cared more & defense (afc) had a goal line stance on 4th & goal.
Kurt Cousins looks good & is faster than you'd think.Ran A CB down after a into caused by a drop by Jimmy Graham. He threw another pass in the end zone right through Grahams bread basket.Goff is not as fast.

UFC: Fight Night VanZant vs Waterson

I'm fortunate. Here in FL, there's a place that shows the fights with no cover. Even if I'm broke, I will at least nurse a coffee and leave a nice tip so the server isn't hosed, but yeah, it works out. Had a pretty fat burger there tonight.

Got to see my fave, Nunes, drop bombs on Rousey tonight.

Man, I went from grousing that Nunes shouldn't be fighting Tate for the Championship to cheering for her at the top of my lungs by the end of that fight. Have been ever since. Can't remember the last time a fighter won me over that fast.

Tyson? I dunno.

Good card tonight.

The January 15 card worries me a bit. I used to be a huge BJ Penn fan. Still am...of his legacy. I dunno if I EVER saw a guy as naturally flexible and strong as he was. They didn't call him "The Phenom" for no reason. But he's gonna get rocked. He's been in some wars and in his last few fights, he's taken some big damage. That's the problem with some of those island warriors (Penn is Hawaiian). Pride goeth before the fall... I just don't want Penn getting permanently hurt.
It's weird I've found I've had several fighters win me over here recently in the last few years. I think part of it is the UFC is brilliant on making stacked cards (even the free ones) and how they give you the back drop human side of the fighters leading up to the fight.

One of those being the Polish Princess Karolina Kawkolicz. God just her demeanor coming out to fight the champ, her smile and the calm about her made me a huge fan! Not to mention she is cute asf! Lol

I sure hope he doesn't fight again. Lost his last 4, only 1 win in his last 8 fights, he has truly become a tomato can. Its sad

Yeah it's sad with Penn and how's he's turned out. It bound to happen for all fighters when father time randomly catches up to you. Maybe the hand eye coordination is slipping? Idk...

UFC Fight Night Jan 28 2017

Man so upset Cerrone lost and especially like that! I bet he's not feeling go great losing in front of his home crowd either!

Shevchenko was such a surprise not striking much and going for the submission on Pena. Looked damn good on her take downs. Man she gave Nunez problems previously and I really think she is going to take the belt from her in the upcoming fight.

That women's division is getting good! Curious to see who my babes Waterson fights next! Lol

Jets hire former Rams great Kevin Greene

Actually....the switch to a 4-3 defense had alot to do with it. Plus, his contract came up, ironically, on the first year of free agency in the NFL....

He asked the Rams for 1m per year, Steelers offered alittle more than 2m per. But he was already gone, because he wanted a team that employed the 3-4 and allowed him more opportunities to rush the passer.

Chad Brown was a stud there as well. Talk about a low ball offer for a star home grown player, after all the other stuff. That was the beauty about Charlie & Hacksaw deal !! Why not pay your players. In the long run it cost team money.
Let Pittsburg out bid you in FA' ?
I saw Kevin Greene(seat across) at a Olive Garden on a date back then in HB. It stunk knowing he was in battle with The Rams. That was part of fans frustration.

Site Updates

What about a trial basis first that's free. Like a week or 30 day period or something before the person having to pay. So the person can see if they like what they they see, or only have to deal with the troll for a week or 30 days or whatever before having to choose. Just an idea off top of head I'd figure I'd throw out.

*Also would allow fans of opposing teams the chance to come here during the week we play them and talk with us about there team without having to pay. Since I doubt any would come if they had to dish out some dough.

I'm assuming potential members can still watch this forum without a membership ? I myself was a casual observer for months before taking the plunge.
Perhaps fans of other teams could identify themselves and be given a temporary user name based on their home team affiliation and be allowed a one week free membership grace period for the time surrounding their game of interest ? Or maybe allow a one week grace period for all interested new members ? Either way, a paid membership might separate real Rams fans from the trolls, so it's difficult to see how $5.00 is excessive. Maybe a free pass for students would be in order ?

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