I look at 2 things with the Falcons.
#1 is Penix. He started 3 games last year and won 1. His comp% was under 60%. He threw as many INTs as he did TDs (3). He's going to need to make a huge jump to get them into the postseason.....or in other words, above .500.
#2 is their schedule. Sure they get Carolina and New Orleans twice. They have 6 games vs 2024 playoff teams, 4 of them in the first 5 weeks and another vs a 10 win non-playoff team, which is bunched with those other 2 at the end of the year.
I know they have "talent" but they also have an inexperienced QB and a tough schedule. If I were to bet on them, I'd take the under. I like them for about 6 or 7 wins.....which would put them at about the #10-#12 pick in the first. The Rams could put both 1st rounders together and get to 4 or 5, I'd think.