Bad Projections Disappear into the Ether..

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Loyal

Loyal

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I remember when we first traded for Matthew Stafford and the draft was over,,a prediction from Cynthia Frelund upset me very much. So much so, I promised myself to go after her stupid assed prediction about the Rams not even making it to the playoffs in 2021, once the Rams secured a spot.


Problem being, I can’t find the prediction she made on a cable tv show, anywhere. I did find a later prediction that had the 49ers winning the division and the Rams barely getting the last Wild Card spot. Not good enough, because I KNOW she said it, but now the proof is gone. She worked for the NFL Network back then, so WTH? I remember it so clearly because I was so amped to hear the over the top projection of a Stafford/Rams Super Bowl win at SoFi. And then she dropped the bomb saying the opposite…

Does anyone else remember this awful prediction? If so, tweet her about her pre-seasonal spewage….
 
Loyal, I think that your posting is a blessing enough.I’d be curious to
see what was posted.
Merlin & no blue font

Alright you got me- pretending to be Merlin,but we all know there is only one of them. So I’ll just ask for a
RAMS SUPERBOWL VICTORY 2022
 
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I know what you're talking about. And when I went to go find it just a month or so, she had already updated it to the one posted above.

There were plenty of 9-8 and 10-7 predictions out there too. I remember a 7-10 as well
 
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Antonius said:
This article is the closest I could find

2021 NFC win total projections: Can Washington repeat in NFC East?

www.nfl.com
Click to expand...
Rams 8.8 wins
tenor-158.gif
 
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Loyal said:
I remember when we first traded for Matthew Stafford and the draft was over,,a prediction from Cynthia Frelund upset me very much. So much so, I promised myself to go after her stupid assed prediction about the Rams not even making it to the playoffs in 2021, once the Rams secured a spot.


Problem being, I can’t find the prediction she made on a cable tv show, anywhere. I did find a later prediction that had the 49ers winning the division and the Rams barely getting the last Wild Card spot. Not good enough, because I KNOW she said it, but now the proof is gone. She worked for the NFL Network back then, so WTH? I remember it so clearly because I was so amped to hear the over the top projection of a Stafford/Rams Super Bowl win at SoFi. And then she dropped the bomb saying the opposite…

Does anyone else remember this awful prediction? If so, tweet her about her pre-seasonal spewage….
Click to expand...
I got some pushback for saying this before, because Freelund is supposedly a very good statistician. But her numbers generated predictions are a worthless waste of time. Most of what she computes is based off meaningless stats.

I’m sure the NFL Network thought that this would generate more betting as people would feel Cynthia was giving them some sort of edge. What I’ve found over the years is that you cannot take the human portion out of factoring in wins. There are too many circumstances involved. Otherwise it would be too easy to win on betting football.

So all of her work is a waste of time. It actually pisses me off that anyone would think that gimmick had value. If it did we would all be rich right now.
 
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Elmgrovegnome said:
I got some pushback for saying this before, because Freelund is supposedly a very good statistician. But her numbers generated predictions are a worthless waste of time. Most of what she computes is based off meaningless stats.

I’m sure the NFL Network thought that this would generate more betting as people would feel Cynthia was giving them some sort of edge. What I’ve found over the years is that you cannot take the human portion out of factoring in wins. There are too many circumstances involved. Otherwise it would be too easy to win on betting football.

So all of her work is a waste of time. It actually pisses me off that anyone would think that gimmick had value. If it did we would all be rich right now.
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She seems like a nice person.. but her projections are garbage - in fantasy and everything else.

All her projections are typically low - they are silly.

This week what i saw briefly she was about 50/50
 
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Cynthia Freelund is a horse faced analytics wannabe. Her and Kimberly Martin are oxygen thieves and total hacks. It boggles my mind how they even have those jobs.
 
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Well I expected a rebirth of the GSoT so yeah. But then I am relentlessly optimistic by nature when it comes to problems and shit, I blame the military career for that too. For example I can't watch games with my Pops, he's so fucking negative throughout that I want to slap the shit out of him. So either I didn't get that from him or the Navy drummed it out of me idk.

But re: Cynthia she's basically another example of the fantasy football culture outgrowths I think. My kids are all about that stuff, they're totally different fan types than I am. They don't really care about the team wins/losses but more about their different rosters. And maybe that's the way to be idk. Seems like the only time being this type of fan pays off is when you win it all and how often does that happen lol.
 
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Merlin said:
Well I expected a rebirth of the GSoT so yeah. But then I am relentlessly optimistic by nature when it comes to problems and shit, I blame the military career for that too. For example I can't watch games with my Pops, he's so fucking negative throughout that I want to slap the shit out of him. So either I didn't get that from him or the Navy drummed it out of me idk.

But re: Cynthia she's basically another example of the fantasy football culture outgrowths I think. My kids are all about that stuff, they're totally different fan types than I am. They don't really care about the team wins/losses but more about their different rosters. And maybe that's the way to be idk. Seems like the only time being this type of fan pays off is when you win it all and how often does that happen lol.
Click to expand...

If anything, having fans who are player focused rather than team focused make it far easier to steer games because so many fans aren't focused on how these systems benefit teams, they only care about how the systems affect their player rosters.

The level of outrage is different... far different.

Also, I dunno what data Cynthia is using, but either her models lack data or she's terrible at deducing who's gonna win based on the output of the model because her win percentage would bankrupt her if she was the house in Vegas. So we KNOW Vegas has a significantly better track record than her... which means either they have a totally different methodology or they have better data... in 2021, it's likely both...
 
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I remember her projection. She said we'd end up being 9 and 8 and I believe she had us missing the playoffs. I stopped watching her mathematical projections thereafter. As far as that Cindy lady, I'd rather do the classy thing and hold off on making her eat it until we win the Super Bowl first.
 
Merlin said:
Well I expected a rebirth of the GSoT so yeah. But then I am relentlessly optimistic by nature when it comes to problems and shit, I blame the military career for that too. For example I can't watch games with my Pops, he's so fucking negative throughout that I want to slap the shit out of him. So either I didn't get that from him or the Navy drummed it out of me idk.

But re: Cynthia she's basically another example of the fantasy football culture outgrowths I think. My kids are all about that stuff, they're totally different fan types than I am. They don't really care about the team wins/losses but more about their different rosters. And maybe that's the way to be idk. Seems like the only time being this type of fan pays off is when you win it all and how often does that happen lol.
Click to expand...


Both for me.

I definitely would take a Rams win over my fantasy teams if I had to choose. But when the Rams lose and I win some fantasy match ups it definitely takes the sting off. Makes watching other games so much more enjoyable too.
 
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FrantikRam said:
Both for me.

I definitely would take a Rams win over my fantasy teams if I had to choose. But when the Rams lose and I win some fantasy match ups it definitely takes the sting off. Makes watching other games so much more enjoyable too.
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I get that. About the only time I focus on my fantasy rosters is when the Rams are not playing. I don’t think about fantasy when I’m watching the Rams. It is, as you say, a little numbing medication to take the sting out of a Rams loss to otherwise do good in fantasy. I’d gladly forfeit all my fantasy games in exchange for a Rams win any game day!
 
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