Meandered across this whilst using my kid's ESPN+ login (evil laugh). Thorough look at the possibilities.

NFL Week 18 playoff picture: Clinching scenarios, standings​

ESPN staffJan 3, 2024, 06:00 AM ET

There is just one week remaining in the NFL regular season, and the playoff picture is taking shape.
Nine teams have clinched postseason berths, including five in the NFC: the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams. In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs have clinched. That means five more spots are on the line in Week 18. The playoffs begin Jan. 13.


There are four AFC teams at 9-7, including a three-way tie atop the South. In the NFC, there are four teams in the playoff hunt at 8-8 -- but there are two more teams on the outside looking in at 7-9.
Here is the playoff picture for Week 18, along with the clinching scenarios for the weekend:

NFL playoff matchups as things stand​

AFC​

• (7) Indianapolis Colts at (2) Miami Dolphins
• (6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
• (5) Cleveland Browns at (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
• Wild-card round bye: (1) Baltimore Ravens

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NFC​

• (7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys
• (6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit Lions
• (5) Philadelphia Eagles at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Wild-card round bye: (1) San Francisco 49ers

Week 18 playoff-clinching scenarios in the AFC​

Houston Texans (9-7)​

The matchup: at Indianapolis on Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
What's at stake: Houston clinches the AFC South title with:

• Houston win OR
• Jacksonville loss or tie

How the Texans can clinch a playoff berth:

• Houston win OR
• Houston tie plus Jacksonville loss plus Pittsburgh loss or tie

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Indianapolis Colts (9-7)​

The matchup: vs. Houston on Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
What's at stake: Indianapolis clinches the AFC South title with:

• Indianapolis win plus Jacksonville loss or tie OR
• Indianapolis tie plus Jacksonville loss

How the Colts can clinch a playoff berth:

• Indianapolis win OR
• Indianapolis tie plus Pittsburgh loss or tie

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Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)​

The matchup: at Baltimore on Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
How the Steelers can clinch a playoff berth:

• Pittsburgh win plus Buffalo loss OR
• Pittsburgh win plus Jacksonville loss or tie OR
• Pittsburgh win plus Houston-Indianapolis tie OR
• Pittsburgh tie plus Jacksonville loss plus Houston-Indianapolis doesn't end in tie OR
• Jacksonville loss plus Denver win plus Houston-Indianapolis doesn't end in tie

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Miami Dolphins (11-5)​

The matchup: vs. Buffalo on Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
What's at stake: Miami will clinch the AFC East title with a win or tie.

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Buffalo Bills (10-6)​

The matchup: at Miami on Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
What's at stake: Buffalo will clinch the AFC East title with a win.
How the Bills can clinch a playoff berth:

• Buffalo tie OR
• Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
• Jacksonville loss or tie OR
• Houston-Indianapolis tie

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Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)​

The matchup: at Tennessee on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
What's at stake: Jacksonville will clinch the AFC South title with:

• Jacksonville win
• Jacksonville tie plus Indianapolis-Houston tie

How the Jags can clinch a playoff berth:

• Jacksonville tie plus Pittsburgh loss or tie OR
• Pittsburgh loss plus Denver loss or tie plus Indianapolis-Houston does not end in a tie

Week 18 playoff-clinching scenarios in the NFC​

Dallas Cowboys (11-5)​

The matchup: at Washington on Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
What's at stake: Dallas clinches the NFC East title with:

• Dallas win OR
• Dallas tie plus Philadelphia tie OR
• Philadelphia loss

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)​

The matchup: at Carolina on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
What's at stake: Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South title with:

• Tampa Bay win OR
• Tampa Bay tie plus New Orleans loss or tie

How the Bucs can clinch a playoff berth:

• Tampa Bay tie plus Seattle loss plus Green Bay loss or tie

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Atlanta Falcons (7-9)​

The matchup: at New Orleans on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
What's at stake: Atlanta will clinch the NFC South title with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss.

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New Orleans Saints (8-8)​

The matchup: vs. Atlanta on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
What's at stake: New Orleans clinches the NFC South title with:

• New Orleans win plus Tampa Bay loss or tie OR
• New Orleans tie plus Tampa Bay loss

How the Saints can clinch a playoff berth:

• New Orleans win plus Seattle loss or tie plus Green Bay loss or tie OR
• New Orleans tie plus Seattle loss plus Green Bay loss

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)​

The matchup: at Giants on Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
What's at stake: Philadelphia clinches the NFC East title with:

• Philadelphia win plus Dallas loss or tie OR
• Philadelphia tie plus Dallas loss

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Seattle Seahawks (8-8)​

The matchup: at Arizona on Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
How the Seahawks can clinch a playoff berth:

• Seattle win plus Green Bay loss or tie OR
• Seattle tie plus Green Bay loss plus Tampa Bay loss or tie OR
• Seattle tie plus Green Bay loss plus New Orleans loss or tie

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Green Bay Packers (8-8)​

The matchup: vs. Chicago on Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

How the Packers can clinch a playoff berth:

• Green Bay win OR
• Green Bay tie plus Seattle loss or tie plus New Orleans loss or tie OR
• Green Bay tie plus Seattle loss plus Tampa Bay loss OR
• Green Bay tie plus Seattle tie plus Tampa Bay loss or tie OR
• Minnesota loss or tie plus Seattle loss plus Tampa Bay loss OR
• Minnesota loss or tie plus Seattle loss plus New Orleans loss

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Minnesota Vikings (7-9)​

The matchup: at Detroit on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
How the Vikings can clinch a playoff berth:

• Minnesota win plus Green Bay loss plus Seattle loss plus Tampa Bay loss OR
• Minnesota win plus Green Bay loss plus Seattle loss plus New Orleans loss

We’ve now reached a point where we can have a meaningful (re)evaluation of the “purge” moves the Rams made during the 2023 offseason. As a whole, it’s the moves have obviously worked out very well. As individuals (or position-based) decisions, I’m going to assign one of three ratings to each:

V – validated. Decisions that, in hindsight, look like very smart.
M – mixed bag. Decisions that could still go either way.
R – regretful. Decisions we wish we had not made.

Odell Beckham, Jr. (did not re-sign) – V
The Rams declined to pay the market price (he received a 1 year, $15M contract) to bring back OBJ. While he’s had his moments (against us, unfortunately), his overall production (35 receptions, 565 yards, 3 TDs) has not warranted that price tag. Instead, we found a nice alternative in the 5th round of the draft!

Jalen Ramsey (traded) – M
This one has a lot of factors. On the plus side, the Rams got out from his contract (which he subsequently renegotiated with Miami), and got a nice return on the trade by drafting Byron Young. On the minus side, Ramsey’s absence has definitely been felt, notwithstanding the bargain value acquisition of Ahkello Witherspoon. I think, in the long run, this could become a “V,” but I’ll put it as a hit and miss move at this stage.

Bobby Wagner (released) – M
We arguably could have afforded one more year with Wagner, and he’s still playing a Pro Bowl level. I do think the defense would have been a bit stronger this year with Wagner and Ernest Jones playing together, but the flip side it that Wagner’s presence may have held back Jones’ development. Jones, with Wagner gone, has clearly become the “quarterback of the defense,” and he’s been very productive.

Leonard Floyd (released) – M
If the Rams had a bit more at the EDGE spot, I’d put this as a “V.” Byron Young has been productive at the spot, but you have to wonder what our pass rush would have looked like this year with Young and Floyd playing as bookends. Still, in the long run, this was a financial move that makes sense.

Baker Mayfield (did not re-sign) – M
Not bidding for Mayfield, who was paid $8.5 million to be the Buccaneers’ starter, made perfect sense. The Rams simply could not afford that type of a price tag for a guy who, if all went well, would never start a game. That said, I have to give an “M” score due to the Rams’ lack of a suitable “Plan B" (thanks, Stetson!) which could very well be the reason we don’t have 10 wins already.

A’Shawn Robinson/Greg Gaines (did not re-sign) – V
My only hesitance on this one is that Gaines ended up being very affordable ($3.5M). Nonetheless, given the production of Bobby Brown and Kobie Turner, both on rookie deals, you have to tip your cap to the Rams’ foresight at the DT position.

Nick Scott/Taylor Rapp (did not re-sign) – V
Another good decision, as the Rams have done well with players already on the roster (Russ Yeast, Quentin Lake, Jordan Fuller) and the return of an older vet (John Johnson).

Matt Gay (did not re-sign) – R
This is the only clear miss. Yes, Gay proved to be expensive, but, again… the lack of a suitable “Plan B” has really hurt. This miss can be tempered next year if the Rams can find a long-term solution at PK in the draft but, right now, we could use a guy like Matt!

I kind of understood their decision to put a regular season game on peacock only - they are trying to promote it - but the playoffs?

Actual rosters come out tonight but here is a list of the top players from fans voting. Goes to show how stupid the average fan is.

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He is about to be released. As much as the running game means to this offense I wouldn't mind picking him up for insurance in case williams goes down again. He hasn't been used much this year, I know hes lost a step but hes better than anything we have behind Williams.

I guess the Rams might be considering resting Stafford this week. But it also could be simply a playoff expedient move. Should Wentz need to take over, then the Rams have a backup QB on the roster who knows the playbook behind Wentz.

Also, they can look at Dresser as a backup option should Wentz move on next year. IMO Dresser is another Wolford type of JAG backup. As a playoff roster adjustment, it makes sense.

With Wentz at QB2 the Rams have a backup very much able to win playoff games.

Statistically they were similar but close to us this year. With our fab four healthy though, I think we're on another level offensively.

Defensively, their pass rush was superior to ours which would be the main difference here - but we do have Aaron Donald.

They even beat the Niners on the road on the way to doing it....

So why not us?

This should be an interesting game.

Does the competitive nature of Shanahan and McVay keep them from sitting Star players?

I’m on the fence.
I’ve always believed in beating those assholes no matter what.
I’m leaning towards starting our stars and kicking those no good, dirty, pricks.

They say that numbers don't lie. Here are some that might surprise you:

Rushing Yards/Attempt
The Rams are tied for 8th in the NFL with 4.4 yards per carry. What I find particularly noteworthy about this stat is the fact that the Rams achieved it without the boost that is provided by a running QB, as is the case with Arizona (2), Baltimore (3), Chicago (5) and Buffalo (8t). This is definitely a tribute to Kyren Williams and the vastly improved (and significantly more healthy) 2023 offensive line.

Completion Percentage Allowed
The Rams are ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing only 60.7% of opposing passes to be completed. This is particularly impressive given the fact that the Rams are 24th in the NFL with only 38 sacks. It also suggests that there has been a significant change in Raheem Morris' soft coverage approach of the past, which resulted in a completion percentage allowed of 67.4% in 2022 (28th in NFL) and 66.6% in 2021 (24th).

Completion Percentage/Dropped Passes (Offense)
The Rams are tied for 27th in the NFL with a completion percentage of 61.5% (Matthew Stafford is at 62.6% - the average is lowered by Brett Rypien's 47.4%). The interesting thing here is that a primary cause of this stat has been dropped passes. The Rams have 32 drops and a drop percentage of 6% (5th worst in NFL). If you applied last year's drop percentage of 3.5%, the Rams would have 14 additional completions, which would raise the team completion percentage to a much more respectable 64.0% (19th in the NFL).

Sure looked and sounded like a Steelers home game to me.....

As reported in The Athletic:

"Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay pondered stepping away from the job following the 2022 NFL season after the team went 5-12 to follow up a Super Bowl-winning campaign in 2021. Those thoughts seemingly don’t exist a year later.

When wrapping up the latest edition of “The Coach McVay Show” this week, the Rams coach was asked if he could promise a McVay show in the 2024 season, to which McVay replied, “That I can promise you.”

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Tutu get's injured and Mr. Robinson steps into the breach. Even @Memento seems to have forgotten his real first name!
He seemed to be coming into his own before the concussion and was taking meaningful reps. Will he have a role in the playoffs and into the future?

I have Alabama and Texas winning today. How do you see it going down?

Wishing you and those closest to you a healthy, prosperous, and fulfilling 2024!

Hopefully our Rams finish this season writing another good chapter into our franchise storybook!

Go Rams!
Go Blue!

A shout out to Tomlin for officially continuing his impressive streak of winning seasons as head coach. I bet Fish would have loved some of that during his 7-9 BS streak.

But watching that Steeler vs Seahawk game pointed out a subtle difference in style that our young, already-accomplished coach could do well to adopt.

Multiple times, when the Seahawks were trying to catch up late, Tomlin would call unexpected pass plays on obvious run out the clock snaps that sealed this game.

We’ve seen many games where we’ve let the other team hang around and in some cases, win when they had no business doing so (including the Steelers), and I hope McVay can learn something from what Tomlin did against the Seahawks late.

I haven't been able to find scenarios that would move the Rams up or down in the playoff seeding. Does anyone know?

If the 2023 draft was today, where would our picks be taken and by whom?

Offense


Defense


ST

1. Did anyone deserve to win that game?

2. It was an ugly tree. Turnovers, punt coverage and kicking game turned a game that should have been a runaway victory into a frustrating nail biter.

3. The Giants went all out with the blitz. The Rams handled it at times, with some very effective screens and roll-out plays, but it was also disruptive, and Stafford took too many hits.

4. That's not an excuse for two interceptions, which were just bad throws, nor does it excuse the dropped passes that helped scuttle at least two drives.

5. The defense had its moments, particularly rushing the passer, but it again was beat deep, and allowed Tyrod Taylor to nearly run them out of the Meadowlands on the final drive.

6. Special teams, though, may have been the biggest culprit. Two missed extra points and a second punt return TD allowed in four weeks. Not good.

7. The Giants, thankfully, were in a giving mood too, as Taylor missed a sure fire two point conversion, and "former Ram" Mason Crosby missed an extra point and a potential game winning FG.

8. Was it the Giants style? The Rams looking past them? The pitfalls of a young team that, for all its recent success, still has deficiencies?

9. And, does it matter? The Steelers did us a solid and took out the Seahawks, turning the day into a playoff clinching celebration, and making this season a beautiful forest!

10. My offensive player of the week is Kyren Williams. His 87 yards rushing, 14 yards receiving, and 3 TDs (not to mention some man-sized blitz pickups) kept the team moving all day. He is having an amazing season.

11. You have to give Puka Nacua a shout-out as well, as his 118 yards moved him to third on the all-time rookie receiving yards list, passing Justin Jefferson. With 29 more yards, he'll have the record (passing Jamar Chase and Bill Groman).

12. How much did we miss Alaric Jackson? Hard to say, given the fact that the pressure on Stafford was due to blitz packages creating free runs at the QB, but it certainly didn't help to have him out. Hopefully, his personal issue is short-term.

13. My defensive MVP is Kobe Turner. His numbers jump off the page: 5 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 QB hits. He now leads all rookies with 9 sacks, tying Aaron Donald's record for most sacks by a rookie DT.

14. Donald added 2 sacks of his own, and Byron Yong had one, bringing his total to 7 (tied for second among rookies). I'm not going to spend much time now talking about offseason moves, but adding another high end edge rusher to Turner, Donald and Young could take the D to the next level.

15. As for immediate moves... how can we stick with Lucas Havrisik? There MUST be someone who could do a better job? Right? Anyone?

16. Ethan Evans has a huge leg (57.4 yards per punt), but he clearly is outkicking the coverage. At this point, I'd trade some punt yardage for some hang time. Can he make that adjustment and, if so, can he do it soon?

17. Enough about the today's difficulties. This team came into the season with so many people doubting that it could compete. A combination of veteran leadership, an amazing rookie (and 2nd year) class, and some very good schemes by the coaches has brought us back to the playoffs for the 5th time in 7 seasons under Sean McVay's leadership.

18. While I predicted a playoff spot (with a 10-7 record) before the season starts, I'm not ready to call this team a contender. That said, they're not going to be an easy out, and, next year... look out!

19. The Rams face a 49ers team that has clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 18. Will the 49ers play their starters and, if so, for how long? And, will the Rams go all out to try to hold on the No. 6 seed, which likely would mean a trip to Detroit to see an old friend, rather than a tough matchup at Dallas (or, less likely, Philadelphia)? Stay tuned!

20. Either way, the Rams will play an 18th game this year. Celebrate! And... HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!

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We’ll be playing at the exact same time as GB-Chicago. Probably won’t know our seed until 7pm next Sunday

Tonight will sound like a war zone when midnight hits. A lot of fireworks and also people firing guns in the air. Here it is still close to 5 hours away and I'm already hearing the loud booms from the illegal fireworks.