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The Texans and the Jadeveon Clowney contract quandary
- By CGI_Ram
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 6 Replies
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a...solve-the-jadeveon-clowney-contract-quandary/
The Texans picked up Jadeveon Clowney's fifth-year option recently, comfortably ahead of the May 2 deadline. The option will pay Clowney, the top overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, $13.846 million in 2018 and is guaranteed for injury upon exercise. This fifth year becomes fully guaranteed early next March on the first day of the 2018 league year.
Clowney has answered critics that had been suggesting the Texans drafted the wrong edge rusher in 2014 with the first overall pick. Knee problems sidelined Clowney for 15 of the 32 regular-season games in his first two years and kept him out of Houston's playoff loss during the 2015 season. Meanwhile, Khalil Mack, the fifth overall pick, experienced immediate success with the Raiders. Healthy for the first time last season, Clowney was named to the Pro Bowl in 2016 and earned some first-team All-Pro/All-NFLhonors. He played a pivotal role in the Texans giving up the fewest yards in the NFL despite losing three-time Defensive Player of Year J.J. Watt to a back injury three games into the season.
Will the Texans negotiate with Jadeveon Clowney this offseason? USATSI
Clowney's stellar play in 2016 has put him in line for a contract extension either this offseason or next year before the start of the 2018 regular season. The Texans have a long-standing policy against negotiating contracts during the regular season. There are challenges the Texans will encounter regardless of whether Clowney is taken care of contractually sooner or later.
The Texans' pecking order for extensions
DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans' first-round pick in 2013, staged a one-day holdout when training camp opened last year protesting the Texans' refusal the negotiate an extension before his fourth year. Hopkins had a point: The Texans had negotiated with Watt and Whitney Mercilus, their first-round picks in 2011 and '12, before their fourth seasons. Watt's extension came in early September 2014 in the days leading up to the start of the regular season. Mercilus got his new deal in May 2015 at the deadline to pick up his fifth-year option.
Hopkins is entering his contract year. General manager Rick Smith indicated that the Texans intend to re-sign Hopkins when he addressed the media at the NFL combine in early March. A new deal for Hopkins isn't imminent.
DeAndre Hopkins wants to get paid. USATSI
The Texans run the risk of alienating Hopkins if Clowney is treated in the same manner as Watt and Mercilus before his own contract is extended. After expressing displeasure with his contract situation last offseason, Hopkins would likely view the Texans signing Clowney first as disrespectful and make him willing to test free agency in 2018. At the very least, the Texans should engage in meaningful contract discussions with Hopkins before turning their attention to Clowney. If the Texans were to reach an impasse with Hopkins, Clowney getting a new deal at this juncture should be less of an issue for the Pro Bowl wide receiver.
Clowney's contemporaries
Proactive NFL teams make a practice of extending the contracts of core players well in advance of free agency. Early extensions can allow teams to lock up very good to great players for a number of years at more affordable rates than if their contracts had expired.
Two fellow 2014 first-round picks that could receive extensions in the coming months might have an impact on Clowney's next contract. Aaron Donald should get a new deal in 2017 no later than the middle of September if the Rams adhere to the same timetable they did for first-round picks Tavon Austin, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn.
Donald, the 2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year, has quickly become the NFL's most disruptive force from the interior of a defensive line. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), his 82 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) were the third most in the league last season and led NFL interior defensive lineman. Donald took the top spot in PFF's top 101 players for the 2015 season. He was second in PFF's 2016 rankings. A consensus first-team All-Pro the past two seasons, Donald has an excellent chance of becoming the NFL's first $20 million per year non-quarterback with at least $75 million in guarantees. That is if Mack doesn't beat him to it.
Aaron Donald will likely become the NFL's highest-paid interior defensive lineman. USATSI
A new Mack contract is unlikely to occur until quarterback Derek Carr signs an extension. Carr is a higher signing priority for the Raiders this offseason because he is entering his contract year. Mack is under contract through the 2018 season thanks to the option year. He became the first player in NFL history to earn first-team All-Pro honors at two different positions during the same season (defensive end and outside linebacker) in 2015. Mack followed up this outstanding campaign by being named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year last season. If Donald gets a new deal first, his contract will serve as the salary floor for Mack.
Clowney's camp is likely to view new deals for Mack or Donald as relevant or important data points. The Texans probably won't consider Clowney as comparable because both players made an instant impact in the NFL as rookies and have continued to elevate their level of play. In order for it to become a more valid comparison, Clowney will need to erase durability concerns by duplicating or bettering his 2016 success during the upcoming season.
Internal salary consistency
A bigger concern for the Texans than any impact possible Donald or Mack deals might have on Clowney's eventual negotiations is maintaining internal salary consistency. Watt was the closest thing to a modern day Reggie White, who is arguably the greatest defensive football player of all-time, before his two back surgeries last year. If Watt is anything close to his previous form this season, he will be a shoo-in to win the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award for 2017.
Watt has five years left on the six-year, $100 million contract extension he received before the 2014 season, which made him the NFL's highest-paid non-quarterback upon signing. He is a tremendous bargain financially with $67.5 million over the remaining five years of his contract, which runs through the 2021 season. Six defensive players have already surpassed Watt in the NFL's salary hierarchy. He will continue to drop as more players that can consistently put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, such as Donald and Mack, sign new contracts.
J.J. Watt is hoping to return to form this season. USATSI
Paying Clowney more than Watt will likely be problematic if the two-time NFL sack leader continues to be a dominant force. The Texans would need to adjust or renegotiate Watt's contract with multiple years remaining as well to avoid having a disgruntled franchise cornerstone.
A potential solution
The Texans should either reach an agreement on a new deal or impasse with Hopkins before offseason workouts end in mid-June to allow plenty of time to negotiate with Clowney, given their preseason deadline for new contracts. Getting Clowney to take a two-year extension that doesn't reach Watt's $16,666,667 average yearly salary and has less than the $50 million he is scheduled to make over the next four seasons (2017-20) should be seriously considered by the Texans.
A first-round pick receiving a two-year extension after the exercise of his fifth-year option isn't unprecedented. In 2015, the Patriots signed offensive tackle Nate Solder to a two-year, $20.062 million extension with $19.938 million fully guaranteed at signing. Solder also can't be designated as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires after the upcoming season.
A two-year extension for $32.5 million would pay Clowney slightly more than $49.8 million through the 2020 season. A $16.25 million new money average is $250,000 per year less than Cardinals franchise player Chandler Jones' recent five-year contract. Only Mack and Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller have more than Jones' 23.5 sacks during the last two seasons.
This type of deal would need to be front-loaded and a substantial amount of the $32.5 million of new money would need to be fully guaranteed at signing. For example, Clowney's 2017 compensation could be reduced to his $690,000 league minimum where he receives a $16.25 million signing bonus. He would be making close to $17 million in 2017 instead of slightly under the $3.5 million that's in his current rookie contract. Clowney's $13.846 million 2018 option year salary could be increased by a couple million and immediately become fully guaranteed rather than next March. The 2019 season would be either fully guaranteed at signing or convert from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee next March. He would receive no more than an unsecured or conditionally guaranteed $10 million in 2020, the final contract year. A tag prohibition clause shouldn't be given to Clowney.
Clowney would have to be comfortable with his contract not being comparable to the deals Donald and Mack are going to sign. The value of the two-year extension would likely be somewhere between $5 million and $10 million less than the compensation of the first two new years of a longer extension. He would hit the open market or get franchised in 2021 as a 28 year old anywhere from two to four years before Donald and Mack. Absent an extension in 2020, Clowney's third contract would come under a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which could be more favorable to players. The current CBA runs through the 2020 season.
Whether the Texans propose this concept or Clowney is receptive to it remains to be seen. I had a positive experience with a shorter-term extension for a Pro Bowl caliber player in the early 2000s while an agent.
The firm I worked for represented Dolphins cornerback Patrick Surtain. Sam Madison, who entered the NFL a year before Surtain, had previously signed a seven-year extension averaging $7 million per year in 2000. That was really good cornerback money considering the salary cap was $62.172 million.
During our negotiations of Surtain's extension the following year, we initially insisted that he should be the highest-paid cornerback on the team. This was a deal breaker for the Dolphins because they viewed Madison as slightly better at the time and a more accomplished player but also wanted seven new contract years as in his extension.
A good trade off to us was a much shorter extension allowing the Dolphins to maintain their cornerback salary hierarchy. We accepted a four-year extension at slightly under $7 million per year where Surtain's contract was set to expire two years before Madison's.
Surtain got another lucrative contract in a sign-and-trade to the Chiefsseveral days before the 2005 NFL Draft. The Dolphins contract was Madison's only big contract of his career.
The Texans picked up Jadeveon Clowney's fifth-year option recently, comfortably ahead of the May 2 deadline. The option will pay Clowney, the top overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, $13.846 million in 2018 and is guaranteed for injury upon exercise. This fifth year becomes fully guaranteed early next March on the first day of the 2018 league year.
Clowney has answered critics that had been suggesting the Texans drafted the wrong edge rusher in 2014 with the first overall pick. Knee problems sidelined Clowney for 15 of the 32 regular-season games in his first two years and kept him out of Houston's playoff loss during the 2015 season. Meanwhile, Khalil Mack, the fifth overall pick, experienced immediate success with the Raiders. Healthy for the first time last season, Clowney was named to the Pro Bowl in 2016 and earned some first-team All-Pro/All-NFLhonors. He played a pivotal role in the Texans giving up the fewest yards in the NFL despite losing three-time Defensive Player of Year J.J. Watt to a back injury three games into the season.
Will the Texans negotiate with Jadeveon Clowney this offseason? USATSI
Clowney's stellar play in 2016 has put him in line for a contract extension either this offseason or next year before the start of the 2018 regular season. The Texans have a long-standing policy against negotiating contracts during the regular season. There are challenges the Texans will encounter regardless of whether Clowney is taken care of contractually sooner or later.
The Texans' pecking order for extensions
DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans' first-round pick in 2013, staged a one-day holdout when training camp opened last year protesting the Texans' refusal the negotiate an extension before his fourth year. Hopkins had a point: The Texans had negotiated with Watt and Whitney Mercilus, their first-round picks in 2011 and '12, before their fourth seasons. Watt's extension came in early September 2014 in the days leading up to the start of the regular season. Mercilus got his new deal in May 2015 at the deadline to pick up his fifth-year option.
Hopkins is entering his contract year. General manager Rick Smith indicated that the Texans intend to re-sign Hopkins when he addressed the media at the NFL combine in early March. A new deal for Hopkins isn't imminent.
DeAndre Hopkins wants to get paid. USATSI
The Texans run the risk of alienating Hopkins if Clowney is treated in the same manner as Watt and Mercilus before his own contract is extended. After expressing displeasure with his contract situation last offseason, Hopkins would likely view the Texans signing Clowney first as disrespectful and make him willing to test free agency in 2018. At the very least, the Texans should engage in meaningful contract discussions with Hopkins before turning their attention to Clowney. If the Texans were to reach an impasse with Hopkins, Clowney getting a new deal at this juncture should be less of an issue for the Pro Bowl wide receiver.
Clowney's contemporaries
Proactive NFL teams make a practice of extending the contracts of core players well in advance of free agency. Early extensions can allow teams to lock up very good to great players for a number of years at more affordable rates than if their contracts had expired.
Two fellow 2014 first-round picks that could receive extensions in the coming months might have an impact on Clowney's next contract. Aaron Donald should get a new deal in 2017 no later than the middle of September if the Rams adhere to the same timetable they did for first-round picks Tavon Austin, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn.
Donald, the 2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year, has quickly become the NFL's most disruptive force from the interior of a defensive line. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), his 82 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) were the third most in the league last season and led NFL interior defensive lineman. Donald took the top spot in PFF's top 101 players for the 2015 season. He was second in PFF's 2016 rankings. A consensus first-team All-Pro the past two seasons, Donald has an excellent chance of becoming the NFL's first $20 million per year non-quarterback with at least $75 million in guarantees. That is if Mack doesn't beat him to it.
Aaron Donald will likely become the NFL's highest-paid interior defensive lineman. USATSI
A new Mack contract is unlikely to occur until quarterback Derek Carr signs an extension. Carr is a higher signing priority for the Raiders this offseason because he is entering his contract year. Mack is under contract through the 2018 season thanks to the option year. He became the first player in NFL history to earn first-team All-Pro honors at two different positions during the same season (defensive end and outside linebacker) in 2015. Mack followed up this outstanding campaign by being named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year last season. If Donald gets a new deal first, his contract will serve as the salary floor for Mack.
Clowney's camp is likely to view new deals for Mack or Donald as relevant or important data points. The Texans probably won't consider Clowney as comparable because both players made an instant impact in the NFL as rookies and have continued to elevate their level of play. In order for it to become a more valid comparison, Clowney will need to erase durability concerns by duplicating or bettering his 2016 success during the upcoming season.
Internal salary consistency
A bigger concern for the Texans than any impact possible Donald or Mack deals might have on Clowney's eventual negotiations is maintaining internal salary consistency. Watt was the closest thing to a modern day Reggie White, who is arguably the greatest defensive football player of all-time, before his two back surgeries last year. If Watt is anything close to his previous form this season, he will be a shoo-in to win the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award for 2017.
Watt has five years left on the six-year, $100 million contract extension he received before the 2014 season, which made him the NFL's highest-paid non-quarterback upon signing. He is a tremendous bargain financially with $67.5 million over the remaining five years of his contract, which runs through the 2021 season. Six defensive players have already surpassed Watt in the NFL's salary hierarchy. He will continue to drop as more players that can consistently put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, such as Donald and Mack, sign new contracts.
J.J. Watt is hoping to return to form this season. USATSI
Paying Clowney more than Watt will likely be problematic if the two-time NFL sack leader continues to be a dominant force. The Texans would need to adjust or renegotiate Watt's contract with multiple years remaining as well to avoid having a disgruntled franchise cornerstone.
A potential solution
The Texans should either reach an agreement on a new deal or impasse with Hopkins before offseason workouts end in mid-June to allow plenty of time to negotiate with Clowney, given their preseason deadline for new contracts. Getting Clowney to take a two-year extension that doesn't reach Watt's $16,666,667 average yearly salary and has less than the $50 million he is scheduled to make over the next four seasons (2017-20) should be seriously considered by the Texans.
A first-round pick receiving a two-year extension after the exercise of his fifth-year option isn't unprecedented. In 2015, the Patriots signed offensive tackle Nate Solder to a two-year, $20.062 million extension with $19.938 million fully guaranteed at signing. Solder also can't be designated as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires after the upcoming season.
A two-year extension for $32.5 million would pay Clowney slightly more than $49.8 million through the 2020 season. A $16.25 million new money average is $250,000 per year less than Cardinals franchise player Chandler Jones' recent five-year contract. Only Mack and Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller have more than Jones' 23.5 sacks during the last two seasons.
This type of deal would need to be front-loaded and a substantial amount of the $32.5 million of new money would need to be fully guaranteed at signing. For example, Clowney's 2017 compensation could be reduced to his $690,000 league minimum where he receives a $16.25 million signing bonus. He would be making close to $17 million in 2017 instead of slightly under the $3.5 million that's in his current rookie contract. Clowney's $13.846 million 2018 option year salary could be increased by a couple million and immediately become fully guaranteed rather than next March. The 2019 season would be either fully guaranteed at signing or convert from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee next March. He would receive no more than an unsecured or conditionally guaranteed $10 million in 2020, the final contract year. A tag prohibition clause shouldn't be given to Clowney.
Clowney would have to be comfortable with his contract not being comparable to the deals Donald and Mack are going to sign. The value of the two-year extension would likely be somewhere between $5 million and $10 million less than the compensation of the first two new years of a longer extension. He would hit the open market or get franchised in 2021 as a 28 year old anywhere from two to four years before Donald and Mack. Absent an extension in 2020, Clowney's third contract would come under a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which could be more favorable to players. The current CBA runs through the 2020 season.
Whether the Texans propose this concept or Clowney is receptive to it remains to be seen. I had a positive experience with a shorter-term extension for a Pro Bowl caliber player in the early 2000s while an agent.
The firm I worked for represented Dolphins cornerback Patrick Surtain. Sam Madison, who entered the NFL a year before Surtain, had previously signed a seven-year extension averaging $7 million per year in 2000. That was really good cornerback money considering the salary cap was $62.172 million.
During our negotiations of Surtain's extension the following year, we initially insisted that he should be the highest-paid cornerback on the team. This was a deal breaker for the Dolphins because they viewed Madison as slightly better at the time and a more accomplished player but also wanted seven new contract years as in his extension.
A good trade off to us was a much shorter extension allowing the Dolphins to maintain their cornerback salary hierarchy. We accepted a four-year extension at slightly under $7 million per year where Surtain's contract was set to expire two years before Madison's.
Surtain got another lucrative contract in a sign-and-trade to the Chiefsseveral days before the 2005 NFL Draft. The Dolphins contract was Madison's only big contract of his career.
Program ALERT!!!
- By DaveFan'51
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 11 Replies
I just noticed over at NFL.com the NFL will have it's Official " 2017 Season Schedule Release" Show at 8:00pm EST tonight on NFLN!! Set your DVR's!! I did!!
Jon Gruden optimistic about Jared Goff, Sean McVay
- By Prime Time
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 9 Replies
http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angele...gruden-optimistic-about-jared-goff-sean-mcvay
Jon Gruden optimistic about Jared Goff, Sean McVay
Alden Gonzalez/ESPN Staff Writer
AL.com
LOS ANGELES -- Jon Gruden, the ESPN analyst who recently finished taping his eighth "QB Camp" series, isn't yet ready to make a full assessment of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff, last year's No. 1 overall pick.
"He came out early -- a true junior," Gruden said on a conference call Wednesday. "I don't think he's a hundred percent what he's going to be physically; I still think he's going to get stronger, I think he's going to mature physically.
I do think that he went into a difficult situation. That's an offensive line that has struggled; that's a receiving corps that has struggled. And his inexperience -- I think that's a difficult combination for a young quarterback. And I think that's a big reason why they were 0-7 when he was the starter."
During that seven-game stretch to finish the 2016 season, Goff had the NFL's fourth-lowest completion percentage (54.6), fourth-worst touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.71), second-lowest Total QBR (22.2) and fewest yards per attempt (5.31).
Carson Wentz followed Goff by joining the Eagles with the No. 2 overall pick last April, immediately taking the two best quarterbacks off the board. That stands in stark contrast to the outlook for this year's draft, which brings serious questions about the ability and slotting of Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Deshone Kizer.
The Rams certainly weighed the uncertainty of this year's quarterback class when they moved up 14 spots to select Goff last year, but now they have to figure out a way to get Goff right.
Enter Sean McVay.
McVay's first job in the NFL came as a coaching assistant on Gruden's Buccaneers team in 2008. His last job, as Washington's offensive coordinator the last three years, saw him work under Gruden's younger brother, Jay.
And a major reason the Rams ultimately made McVay the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era stemmed from Jon Gruden's ringing endorsement early in their search.
Gruden believes McVay will inject "a lot of energy, a lot of optimism" into a team that has suffered 10 consecutive losing seasons and is coming off a 4-12 year.
"I just think he's going to bring a real positive, upbeat presence to the offensive side of the ball," Gruden said. "And fortunately for him, he's hired one of the best defensive minds in all of football over the last 25 or 30 years [in coordinator Wade Phillips].
I think they have a unique battery there -- a young, energetic offensive coach who's proven he can get the job done, and a very, very good, experienced defensive coach on the other side."
Jon Gruden optimistic about Jared Goff, Sean McVay
Alden Gonzalez/ESPN Staff Writer
AL.com
LOS ANGELES -- Jon Gruden, the ESPN analyst who recently finished taping his eighth "QB Camp" series, isn't yet ready to make a full assessment of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff, last year's No. 1 overall pick.
"He came out early -- a true junior," Gruden said on a conference call Wednesday. "I don't think he's a hundred percent what he's going to be physically; I still think he's going to get stronger, I think he's going to mature physically.
I do think that he went into a difficult situation. That's an offensive line that has struggled; that's a receiving corps that has struggled. And his inexperience -- I think that's a difficult combination for a young quarterback. And I think that's a big reason why they were 0-7 when he was the starter."
During that seven-game stretch to finish the 2016 season, Goff had the NFL's fourth-lowest completion percentage (54.6), fourth-worst touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.71), second-lowest Total QBR (22.2) and fewest yards per attempt (5.31).
Carson Wentz followed Goff by joining the Eagles with the No. 2 overall pick last April, immediately taking the two best quarterbacks off the board. That stands in stark contrast to the outlook for this year's draft, which brings serious questions about the ability and slotting of Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Deshone Kizer.
The Rams certainly weighed the uncertainty of this year's quarterback class when they moved up 14 spots to select Goff last year, but now they have to figure out a way to get Goff right.
Enter Sean McVay.
McVay's first job in the NFL came as a coaching assistant on Gruden's Buccaneers team in 2008. His last job, as Washington's offensive coordinator the last three years, saw him work under Gruden's younger brother, Jay.
And a major reason the Rams ultimately made McVay the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era stemmed from Jon Gruden's ringing endorsement early in their search.
Gruden believes McVay will inject "a lot of energy, a lot of optimism" into a team that has suffered 10 consecutive losing seasons and is coming off a 4-12 year.
"I just think he's going to bring a real positive, upbeat presence to the offensive side of the ball," Gruden said. "And fortunately for him, he's hired one of the best defensive minds in all of football over the last 25 or 30 years [in coordinator Wade Phillips].
I think they have a unique battery there -- a young, energetic offensive coach who's proven he can get the job done, and a very, very good, experienced defensive coach on the other side."
Alternate realities; biggest draft what-if for all 32 teams
- By CGI_Ram
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 5 Replies
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/pag...nate-realities-biggest-draft-all-32-teams#NFC W
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
What if the Bengals hadn't selected James Francis No. 12 overall in 1990?
The Baylor linebacker had been Jimmy Johnson's preferred choice. Johnson saw Francis as a do-everything linebacker with the ability to rush the passer or drop in coverage. The Cowboys had to "settle" for Emmitt Smith at No. 17, and all he did was help bring the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in a four-year span and become the NFL's all-time leading rusher. Francis had a 10-year career, spending nine seasons with a Bengals team that largely floundered during his tenure. Smith has a record that looks like it never will be broken. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
What if the Giants never made the trade for Eli Manning and kept Philip Rivers in 2004?
Would they still have won those two Super Bowls? That's always a fun "what if?" Former Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi conceded over the years there wasn't a contingency plan if things fell through at the final minute. The Giants already had drafted Rivers even though they had Ben Roethlisberger rated ahead of him. In retrospect, it's hard to imagine the Giants would've struggled with Rivers, Shawne Merriman (the 2005 first-round pick from the trade), Nate Kaeding (third round in '04) and Roman Oben on their roster. The only question is whether it would've led to multiple Super Bowls. Rivers developed into a Pro Bowl quarterback. But something tells me the Giants might not be trying for their fifth trophy in the case this year if Rivers had remained a Giant. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
What if the Eagles were more aggressive and drafted Russell Wilson in 2012?
Then-coach Andy Reid was high on Wilson, and there have been countless tales of how the Eagles had intentions of taking the Wisconsin signal-caller in the third round. The Seahawks wrecked that plan by selecting Wilson 13 picks before Philly was on the clock. The Eagles went to Plan B and took Nick Foles, who started off hot, came back down to earth, was traded, and is now back with the team as a reserve. Wilson, meanwhile, has been a steady force on a Seahawks team that has averaged 11 wins over the past five seasons with two Super Bowl appearances (including one win). The Eagles are happy with their new QB, Carson Wentz, but a Wilson-Reid marriage would have changed the trajectory of the franchise. The lesson: If you are sold on a particular quarterback, don't wait around for him to come to you. -- Tim McManus
Washington Redskins
What if the Redskins had never drafted Robert Griffin III in 2012?
It certainly looked like a good move at the time when Griffin became the NFL Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl. But Griffin hurt his knee, never developed as a passer and now is trying to find work with a third franchise. Had the Redskins kept their original choice (sixth overall), they likely would have selected QB Ryan Tannehill. It would have been interesting to see how he would have developed under Mike and Kyle Shanahan. It also would have given the Redskins three more draft choices, including two first-rounders, to try to rebuild an aging roster. After making the trade with St. Louis in 2012, the Redskins learned of salary cap penalties that cost them $36 million of cap space in '12 and '13. Losing those two first-rounders became a bigger deal, especially when Griffin failed to develop. -- John Keim
Chicago Bears
What if the Bears had the foresight to draft Aaron Rodgers No. 4 overall in 2005?
Can you imagine Rodgers quarterbacking the Bears when Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman were all in their primes on defense? Chicago won back-to-back NFC North titles in '05-06 and reached Super Bowl XLI with Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman running the offense. Add Rodgers to the mix, and the Bears -- under Lovie Smith -- probably win multiple championships. Instead, the Bears drafted Cedric Benson, who lasted three years in Chicago. Since 2006, the Bears have qualified for the postseason one time -- ironically losing to Rodgers and the Packers at Soldier Field in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. -- Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions
What if the Lions had taken Andre Johnson instead of Charles Rogers at No. 2 overall in 2003?
The entire course of the franchise in the 2000s might have changed. Instead of a bust at receiver in Rogers, then-quarterback Joey Harrington would have had a potential Hall of Fame pass-catcher and a reliable target instead of Rogers, Bill Schroder, Az-Zahir Hakim, Tai Streets and Scottie Vines as targets. The Lions might not have gotten Roy Williams the following year, but who knows what it would have done for Harrington's confidence having a guy such as Johnson. And as a final kicker to the switch, the reliability of Johnson likely would have meant general manager Matt Millen would not have taken wide receivers in the first round for three consecutive years -- something he never was able to get past in Detroit, particularly after two of the three (along with Mike Williams) were colossal NFL busts. -- Michael Rothstein
Green Bay Packers
What if Aaron Rodgers hadn't fallen all the way to No. 24 overall in the 2005 draft?
Who would be the quarterback today? While in the short term it might have extended Brett Favre's career in Green Bay and the messy divorce might have been avoided, it's a good bet that the Packers wouldn't be on a current run of eight straight playoff appearances. Or maybe Alex Smith would be their quarterback today. If the 49ers had taken Rodgers instead of Smith at No. 1, perhaps Smith would have been the Packers' pick at No. 24. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
What if the Vikings hadn't made the Herschel Walker trade?
It might be the most infamous trade in NFL history, more because of what it did to set up the Cowboys' three championships in the 1990s. But had the Vikings not given up eight draft picks -- including three first-rounders and three second-rounders -- it's interesting to think about how the NFC would have looked in the early '90s, given the fact the Vikings still made the playoffs seven times in the decade. Assuming the Cowboys' dynasty doesn't happen without the trade, do the 49ers win another title or two? Do Brett Favre's Packers teams get to more than two Super Bowls? Or do the Vikings -- a frequent thorn in Favre's side -- use a few of those picks to acquire players that help put them over the top? -- Ben Goessling
Atlanta Falcons
What if the Falcons hadn't traded away five picks to move up and select Julio Jones No. 6 overall in 2011?
If the trade never happened, general manager Thomas Dimitroff would have had to come up with a much better group of five players than the Browns did in return with DT Phil Taylor, WR Greg Little, RB Owen Marecic, QB Brandon Weeden and RB Trent Richardson. Having a player as dynamic as Jones certainly justified the trade, even if the Falcons voided themselves of some depth. Had the trade not occurred, maybe the Falcons could have landed a group of five that included DE Cameron Jordan (21st overall, 2011), WR Randall Cobb (59th overall, 2011), CB Richard Sherman (124th overall, 2011), LB Dont'a Hightower (22nd overall, 2012) and CB Josh Norman (118th overall, 2012). -- Vaughn McClure
Carolina Panthers
What if the Panthers hadn't given up their 1999 (No. 5) and 2000 (No. 12) first-round picks to Washington for Sean Gilbert?
They would have had their choice of Ricky Williams, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey or Daunte Culpepper in 1999 and their choice of defensive ends Shaun Ellis and John Abraham in 2000. For a team that went 8-8 and 7-9 during those two seasons with Gilbert, it seems the value of those they could have had might have been better served. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
What if the Saints had not traded the No. 1 overall pick in the 1967 draft?
There are plenty of worthy candidates for a franchise once known as the "Aints," who didn't win their first playoff game for more than 30 years. (For example, what would be known as the wackiest draft trade in NFL history if the Saints hadn't swapped all of their picks, and more, for Ricky Williams in 1999?) But the Saints never truly topped their very first draft-day blunder, when they traded the No. 1 pick in the 1967 draft to the Colts for Johnny Unitas' backup quarterback, Gary Cuozzo. Cuozzo eventually lost the Saints' starting job to Billy Kilmer and got traded to the Vikings a year later (for two top-10 picks that never amounted to much). The Colts, meanwhile, drafted former NFL great defensive lineman Bubba Smith with that No.1 pick. -- Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What if the Bucs hadn't selected Mark Barron No. 7 overall in 2012?
Tampa could have taken Luke Kuechly, who was picked two spots later and is a four-time Pro Bowler for Carolina. The Bucs' secondary struggled and Barron was traded to the Rams in 2014. The Bucs also could have picked Aaron Rodgers instead of selecting Cadillac Williams with the fifth overall pick in 2005. Rodgers went 24th overall. They also could have selected Drew Brees, who was taken 32nd overall in the 2001 draft, but instead, they selected a human-penalty machine in offensive tackle Kenyatta Walker. For an organization that's never had a true franchise quarterback until now, those misses are tough to swallow. -- Jenna Laine
Arizona Cardinals
What if the Cardinals had drafted Adrian Peterson No. 5 overall instead of tackle Levi Brown in 2007?
This is a sore spot for Cardinals fans, as well as the franchise, a decade later. Arizona passed on drafting a franchise-changing running back in favor of a left tackle (which is a necessary requirement for a team to prosper). But just imagine pairing Peterson with Larry Fitzgerald? A lot of people in Arizona -- including Fitzgerald -- still wince at the lost opportunity. The Cardinals' only Super Bowl appearance in 2009 could've ended very differently had Peterson been in the backfield. Brown started 79 games for the Cardinals over seven seasons. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
What if the Lions had passed on the opportunity to take Matthew Stafford No. 1 overall in 2009?
Not that it was a certainty, but what if the Rams had then taken Stafford with the No. 2 pick? Instead, the Rams chose Baylor tackle Jason Smith, who was expected to replace Hall of Famer Orlando Pace. Smith famously flopped, his three years in St. Louis marked by injury and underperformance. Stafford, meanwhile, has been a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback for the past eight years and counting. Taking Stafford would've provided the Rams with a smooth transition from Marc Bulger and locked down the most important position for a decade. Who knows what would've come after? The Rams would've never drafted Sam Bradford, would've never had to move up to take Jared Goff. And they might not be coming off their 10th consecutive losing season. -- Alden Gonzalez
San Francisco 49ers
What if the 49ers had drafted Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith No. 1 overall in 2005?
After the golden era of 49ers quarterback play spearheaded by Joe Montana and Steve Young had come to an end, the team found itself in a perpetual search to find the next in line. After a series of misses, the 49ers finally had their chance with the first pick in the 2005 draft. The choice came down to Utah's Smith or Cal's Rodgers. Rodgers grew up and played in the Niners' backyard (similar to Tom Brady, another eventual star quarterback the 49ers passed on) but then-coach Mike Nolan didn't view Rodgers as being the "safe" choice. Nolan believed Rodgers was arrogant and had questions about his throwing motion. The Niners went with Smith, who turned into a solid if unspectacular quarterback, while Rodgers has turned into one of the league's best players. Twelve years later, the 49ers' search for a franchise quarterback is still ongoing. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
What if the Seahawks had drafted Andy Dalton in 2011?
General manager John Schneider reportedly was ready to pick Dalton with the 25th pick before the team decided to go with offensive lineman James Carpenter. Had the Seahawks gone with Dalton, they almost certainly would not have selected Russell Wilson the following season. Would Dalton have won the starting job as a rookie like Wilson did? Given the talent on defense, how far could a Dalton-led Seahawks team have gotten? The Bengals have never won a playoff game with Dalton at QB. The Seahawks have made it to the divisional round in every season with Wilson. -- Sheil Kapadia
Buffalo Bills
What if the Bills had drafted Rob Gronkowski in 2010?
The Buffalo area is not a hotbed of NFL prospects, but Gronkowski -- perhaps the greatest tight end in NFL history -- grew up in nearby Williamsville, New York, and easily could have played for his hometown team. Every team except the Ravens, Panthers and Bears passed up Gronkowski before the Patriots selected him No. 42 in 2010. But the Bills had the No. 41 selection and took defensive tackle Torell Troup, whose career was cut short by a back injury. It is debatable whether Gronkowski would have been as successful without Tom Brady throwing him passes in Buffalo, but consider this: Of the 44 tight ends drafted by the Bills all-time, none has made the Pro Bowl. Gronkowski has made it four times. -- Mike Rodak
Miami Dolphins
What if the Dolphins had drafted Darrelle Revis in 2007?
The Dolphins' 2007 draft was littered with "what ifs?" but the biggest was ninth overall pick Ted Ginn Jr., who was not close to being a No. 1 receiver. There were plenty of franchise players available such as Revis, linebacker Patrick Willis and running back Marshawn Lynch. Miami also selected quarterback bust John Beck in the second round and tailback Lorenzo Booker in the third round that year in a draft that contributed to its worst record (1-15) in franchise history. -- James Walker
New England Patriots
What if the Patriots had drafted Jerry Rice in 1985?
The Patriots traded the 16th pick in the draft to San Francisco, along with a third-round selection, in exchange for picks in the first (28th), second (56th) and third (84th) rounds. The 49ers selected Rice with the 16th overall pick. Perhaps Rice never would have had the same Pro Football Hall of Fame career, or maybe he would have starred in New England and the team's current run of success would have started even sooner. That's a fun one to consider, right there with what life would be like for the Patriots if they didn't turn in their 2000 draft card with Tom Brady's name on it in the sixth round (199th overall). -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
What if the Jets had drafted Brett Favre in 1991?
The Jets thought they had a trade worked out with the Cardinals. The plan was to switch places with the Cards in the second round and pick Favre, whom the Jets had rated as the No. 1 player on their draft board. (They had no first-round pick.) At the last minute, the trade fell apart. Favre went to the Falcons and, with the next pick, the Jets settled for QB Browning Nagle. His career consisted of 500 fewer touchdown passes than Favre. -- Rich Cimini
Baltimore Ravens
What if the Ravens drafted Tom Brady in 2000?
Matt Cavanaugh, Baltimore's offensive coordinator at the time, placed a second- or third-round grade on Brady, but he didn't sell Brady as a can't-miss prospect. As a result, the Ravens selected quarterback Chris Redman in the third round. Redman won a total of four games in his eight-year career, while Brady became the first quarterback to win five Super Bowls after being selected in the sixth round by the Patriots. The Ravens are left to wonder what Brady could've done for them if paired with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on defense. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
What if the Bengals traded with the Saints instead of sticking with Akili Smith in 1999?
The Saints offered the Bengals nine picks -- all of their picks in 1999, first-round picks in 2000 and 2001, and a second-round pick in 2002. But the Bengals didn't budge from the No. 3 overall pick and selected Smith, who was benched by his second season. If the Bengals had accepted the offer, they would have moved down to No. 12 in the 1999 draft, but at least had the No. 2 overall pick in the 2000 draft in addition to their original pick. On the board at that time -- Brian Urlacher. In 2002, the Bengals likely would have picked No. 23 overall via the trade, in addition to their other original first-round selection. Drew Brees would have still been available. The Bengals, however, would have actually had to hit on those extra draft picks. Of all the players they selected in 1999 and 2000, none made the Pro Bowl as a Bengal. They didn't strike gold until 2001, when they selected wide receiver Chad Johnson in the second round. The Bengals went 4-12 in 1999, 4-12 in 2000, 6-10 in 2001 and 2-14 in 2002, finally righting the ship in 2003 when they hired Marvin Lewis and drafted quarterback Carson Palmer. Could one of those extra picks have changed the direction of the franchise starting in 1999? -- Katherine Terrell
Cleveland Browns
What if the Browns had drafted Khalil Mack and Derek Carr in 2014?
The team never gave much consideration to Mack, who has turned into a star for the Raiders. Had the Browns taken Carr, their quarterback saga might have ended. The most painful part of the story: Instead of Mack and Carr, the Browns wound up with Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel in the first round. It's not overstating it to say that draft set the Browns back five years. -- Pat McManamon
Pittsburgh Steelers
What if the Steelers had drafted Darrelle Revis in 2007?
In Mike Tomlin's first season with the franchise, Revis went one selection ahead of the team's No. 15 pick, which it used on linebacker Lawrence Timmons. What if Revis fell one more spot? The Steelers' defense would have rolled out a vicious corner tandem of Ike Taylor and Revis, who grew up in the Pittsburgh area. Revis would test his shrewd business sense with the Steelers' patient, tradition-rich organizational approach. Perhaps Revis could have retired on his own terms -- as a Hall of Famer in his hometown. -- Jeremy Fowler
Houston Texans
What if the Texans had drafted Derek Carr in 2014?
After a 2-14 season, the Texans had the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. They used the first overall pick on Jadeveon Clowney, but Carr was still on the board at No. 33. Instead, Houston took guard Xavier Su'a-Filo, who has not been an impact player thus far. Carr, who is the brother of former Texans No. 1 pick David Carr, had a breakout season in 2016 and has been consistent for the Raiders for the past three seasons. Meanwhile, the Texans have started eight different quarterbacks during that time period. -- Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts
What if the Colts had taken Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning No. 1 overall in 1998?
The state-of-the-art Lucas Oil Stadium likely wouldn't be in Indianapolis because Leaf lasted only three seasons in the league. Manning's right arm and intelligence helped the Colts to 11 seasons of 10 or more victories, 11 postseasons and a Super Bowl title. Manning is a lock to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The Colts are hoping their decision to take Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick over Robert Griffin III in 2012 will end as well. -- Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars
What if the Jags drafted Russell Wilson in 2012?
The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in 2011 and brought in Chad Henne as a free agent in March 2012, so there was no reason for the Jaguars to consider taking a quarterback in the 2012 draft. That's why they never even considered Wilson in the third round, instead opting to use the 70th overall pick on punter Bryan Anger. Four picks later, Seattle took Wilson -- who had a fantastic career at NC State and Wisconsin -- and eventually led the Seahawks to a pair of Super Bowl appearances. How much different would the Jaguars' fortunes be in the weak AFC South had Wilson been the starter over the past five seasons? It's unlikely the franchise would be entering the 2017 draft having lost at least 11 games for six consecutive seasons. -- Mike DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
What if the Titans had drafted Randy Moss in 1998?
He was still on the board at No. 16, when the Titans were the Tennessee Oilers, but they drafted Kevin Dyson out of Utah instead. Dyson had the ball in his hands for the franchise's two iconic moments: the Music City Miracle and the stretch that came up short of the goal line and a tie on the final play of Super Bowl XXXIV. But Moss, drafted 21st in Minnesota, scored 17 TDs as a rookie, 92 in eight years with the Vikings and 156 in his 14 seasons. The Titans have yet to have a receiver nearly as dynamic. Moss was with three teams in 2010, including eight games with the Titans when they had no idea what to do with him at that stage. -- Paul Kuharsky
Denver Broncos
What if coach Josh McDaniels had done more with the Broncos' 2009 class?
The team had two first-round picks -- Knowshon Moreno and Robert Ayers -- who never were selected to a Pro Bowl. McDaniels, by then the lead voice in the Broncos' personnel decisions, traded a first-round pick to move up in the second round to take Alphonso Smith, whom he eventually shipped out. One of the other second-rounders, tight end Richard Quinn, didn't think he would be drafted and never caught a pass for the team. Of the 10 players in the draft class, Moreno led the team in rushing three times, but only safety David Bruton Jr. (a fourth-rounder) consistently played at or above the level of where he was selected. The Broncos had five picks in the draft's top 64 players -- two became starters and none was named to a Pro Bowl. McDaniels was fired 12 games into the 2010 season. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
What if the Chiefs could've drafted Andrew Luck?
In 2013, the one time the Chiefs had the draft's No. 1 overall pick, there was no quarterback worthy of such a lofty selection. But if Andrew Luck had stayed at Stanford for his final season instead of declaring for the 2012 draft, there would have been. There's no telling what the Chiefs would have accomplished the past four seasons if Luck was their quarterback. But it's safe to say they would have done better than one AFC West title and one playoff victory. -- Adam Teicher
Los Angeles Chargers
What if Peyton Manning had fallen to the Chargers at No. 2 overall in 1998?
The move would have put a team four years removed from a Super Bowl appearance right back in position to contend for an NFL title, and also changed the career paths of future franchise quarterbacks in Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, as the Chargers likely would have passed on both with Manning in the fold. And a Super Bowl appearance led by Manning could have been the driving force to get a stadium deal done in America's Finest City, so perhaps the Chargers could have stayed put in San Diego. However, just like younger brother Eli, Peyton Manning may not have been thrilled about the possibility of playing for the Chargers, so perhaps we would have seen another draft day trade. -- Eric D. Williams
Oakland Raiders
What if the Raiders had drafted Dan Marino No. 26 overall in 1983 instead of Don Mosebar?
Yes, we already know the Raiders believed they had a deal for John Elway hijacked by the NFL earlier in the day, but when it came time for the Raiders to pick, there sat Marino, who was free-falling and could only watch as other QBs in Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien all went before him. Unfounded drug rumors circulating about Marino scared off the Raiders, who thought they were set with Jim Plunkett and former first-round pick Marc Wilson, and Marino went one selection later to Miami. Mosebar had a solid career, going to three Pro Bowls, but Marino was a Hall of Famer. How much better might he have been with the Raiders' defense? How much better would the Raiders have been with Marino under center in the 1980s and '90s? "[We] made a bad, bad mistake in relationship to Marino," former Raiders director of player personnel Ron Wolf said on an ESPN 30 for 30 special on that 1983 draft. "To this day I call him Dan, Dan Mosebar. Because [we] blew [it on] Marino. And he knows that." Perhaps Marino wins a Super Bowl or two and the galvanized Raiders do not become nomads, never leaving Los Angeles for a return trip to Oakland with a future engagement in Las Vegas on the horizon. -- Paul Gutierrez
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
What if the Bengals hadn't selected James Francis No. 12 overall in 1990?
The Baylor linebacker had been Jimmy Johnson's preferred choice. Johnson saw Francis as a do-everything linebacker with the ability to rush the passer or drop in coverage. The Cowboys had to "settle" for Emmitt Smith at No. 17, and all he did was help bring the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in a four-year span and become the NFL's all-time leading rusher. Francis had a 10-year career, spending nine seasons with a Bengals team that largely floundered during his tenure. Smith has a record that looks like it never will be broken. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
What if the Giants never made the trade for Eli Manning and kept Philip Rivers in 2004?
Would they still have won those two Super Bowls? That's always a fun "what if?" Former Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi conceded over the years there wasn't a contingency plan if things fell through at the final minute. The Giants already had drafted Rivers even though they had Ben Roethlisberger rated ahead of him. In retrospect, it's hard to imagine the Giants would've struggled with Rivers, Shawne Merriman (the 2005 first-round pick from the trade), Nate Kaeding (third round in '04) and Roman Oben on their roster. The only question is whether it would've led to multiple Super Bowls. Rivers developed into a Pro Bowl quarterback. But something tells me the Giants might not be trying for their fifth trophy in the case this year if Rivers had remained a Giant. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
What if the Eagles were more aggressive and drafted Russell Wilson in 2012?
Then-coach Andy Reid was high on Wilson, and there have been countless tales of how the Eagles had intentions of taking the Wisconsin signal-caller in the third round. The Seahawks wrecked that plan by selecting Wilson 13 picks before Philly was on the clock. The Eagles went to Plan B and took Nick Foles, who started off hot, came back down to earth, was traded, and is now back with the team as a reserve. Wilson, meanwhile, has been a steady force on a Seahawks team that has averaged 11 wins over the past five seasons with two Super Bowl appearances (including one win). The Eagles are happy with their new QB, Carson Wentz, but a Wilson-Reid marriage would have changed the trajectory of the franchise. The lesson: If you are sold on a particular quarterback, don't wait around for him to come to you. -- Tim McManus
Washington Redskins
What if the Redskins had never drafted Robert Griffin III in 2012?
It certainly looked like a good move at the time when Griffin became the NFL Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl. But Griffin hurt his knee, never developed as a passer and now is trying to find work with a third franchise. Had the Redskins kept their original choice (sixth overall), they likely would have selected QB Ryan Tannehill. It would have been interesting to see how he would have developed under Mike and Kyle Shanahan. It also would have given the Redskins three more draft choices, including two first-rounders, to try to rebuild an aging roster. After making the trade with St. Louis in 2012, the Redskins learned of salary cap penalties that cost them $36 million of cap space in '12 and '13. Losing those two first-rounders became a bigger deal, especially when Griffin failed to develop. -- John Keim
Chicago Bears
What if the Bears had the foresight to draft Aaron Rodgers No. 4 overall in 2005?
Can you imagine Rodgers quarterbacking the Bears when Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman were all in their primes on defense? Chicago won back-to-back NFC North titles in '05-06 and reached Super Bowl XLI with Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman running the offense. Add Rodgers to the mix, and the Bears -- under Lovie Smith -- probably win multiple championships. Instead, the Bears drafted Cedric Benson, who lasted three years in Chicago. Since 2006, the Bears have qualified for the postseason one time -- ironically losing to Rodgers and the Packers at Soldier Field in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. -- Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions
What if the Lions had taken Andre Johnson instead of Charles Rogers at No. 2 overall in 2003?
The entire course of the franchise in the 2000s might have changed. Instead of a bust at receiver in Rogers, then-quarterback Joey Harrington would have had a potential Hall of Fame pass-catcher and a reliable target instead of Rogers, Bill Schroder, Az-Zahir Hakim, Tai Streets and Scottie Vines as targets. The Lions might not have gotten Roy Williams the following year, but who knows what it would have done for Harrington's confidence having a guy such as Johnson. And as a final kicker to the switch, the reliability of Johnson likely would have meant general manager Matt Millen would not have taken wide receivers in the first round for three consecutive years -- something he never was able to get past in Detroit, particularly after two of the three (along with Mike Williams) were colossal NFL busts. -- Michael Rothstein
Green Bay Packers
What if Aaron Rodgers hadn't fallen all the way to No. 24 overall in the 2005 draft?
Who would be the quarterback today? While in the short term it might have extended Brett Favre's career in Green Bay and the messy divorce might have been avoided, it's a good bet that the Packers wouldn't be on a current run of eight straight playoff appearances. Or maybe Alex Smith would be their quarterback today. If the 49ers had taken Rodgers instead of Smith at No. 1, perhaps Smith would have been the Packers' pick at No. 24. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
What if the Vikings hadn't made the Herschel Walker trade?
It might be the most infamous trade in NFL history, more because of what it did to set up the Cowboys' three championships in the 1990s. But had the Vikings not given up eight draft picks -- including three first-rounders and three second-rounders -- it's interesting to think about how the NFC would have looked in the early '90s, given the fact the Vikings still made the playoffs seven times in the decade. Assuming the Cowboys' dynasty doesn't happen without the trade, do the 49ers win another title or two? Do Brett Favre's Packers teams get to more than two Super Bowls? Or do the Vikings -- a frequent thorn in Favre's side -- use a few of those picks to acquire players that help put them over the top? -- Ben Goessling
Atlanta Falcons
What if the Falcons hadn't traded away five picks to move up and select Julio Jones No. 6 overall in 2011?
If the trade never happened, general manager Thomas Dimitroff would have had to come up with a much better group of five players than the Browns did in return with DT Phil Taylor, WR Greg Little, RB Owen Marecic, QB Brandon Weeden and RB Trent Richardson. Having a player as dynamic as Jones certainly justified the trade, even if the Falcons voided themselves of some depth. Had the trade not occurred, maybe the Falcons could have landed a group of five that included DE Cameron Jordan (21st overall, 2011), WR Randall Cobb (59th overall, 2011), CB Richard Sherman (124th overall, 2011), LB Dont'a Hightower (22nd overall, 2012) and CB Josh Norman (118th overall, 2012). -- Vaughn McClure
Carolina Panthers
What if the Panthers hadn't given up their 1999 (No. 5) and 2000 (No. 12) first-round picks to Washington for Sean Gilbert?
They would have had their choice of Ricky Williams, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey or Daunte Culpepper in 1999 and their choice of defensive ends Shaun Ellis and John Abraham in 2000. For a team that went 8-8 and 7-9 during those two seasons with Gilbert, it seems the value of those they could have had might have been better served. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
What if the Saints had not traded the No. 1 overall pick in the 1967 draft?
There are plenty of worthy candidates for a franchise once known as the "Aints," who didn't win their first playoff game for more than 30 years. (For example, what would be known as the wackiest draft trade in NFL history if the Saints hadn't swapped all of their picks, and more, for Ricky Williams in 1999?) But the Saints never truly topped their very first draft-day blunder, when they traded the No. 1 pick in the 1967 draft to the Colts for Johnny Unitas' backup quarterback, Gary Cuozzo. Cuozzo eventually lost the Saints' starting job to Billy Kilmer and got traded to the Vikings a year later (for two top-10 picks that never amounted to much). The Colts, meanwhile, drafted former NFL great defensive lineman Bubba Smith with that No.1 pick. -- Mike Triplett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What if the Bucs hadn't selected Mark Barron No. 7 overall in 2012?
Tampa could have taken Luke Kuechly, who was picked two spots later and is a four-time Pro Bowler for Carolina. The Bucs' secondary struggled and Barron was traded to the Rams in 2014. The Bucs also could have picked Aaron Rodgers instead of selecting Cadillac Williams with the fifth overall pick in 2005. Rodgers went 24th overall. They also could have selected Drew Brees, who was taken 32nd overall in the 2001 draft, but instead, they selected a human-penalty machine in offensive tackle Kenyatta Walker. For an organization that's never had a true franchise quarterback until now, those misses are tough to swallow. -- Jenna Laine
Arizona Cardinals
What if the Cardinals had drafted Adrian Peterson No. 5 overall instead of tackle Levi Brown in 2007?
This is a sore spot for Cardinals fans, as well as the franchise, a decade later. Arizona passed on drafting a franchise-changing running back in favor of a left tackle (which is a necessary requirement for a team to prosper). But just imagine pairing Peterson with Larry Fitzgerald? A lot of people in Arizona -- including Fitzgerald -- still wince at the lost opportunity. The Cardinals' only Super Bowl appearance in 2009 could've ended very differently had Peterson been in the backfield. Brown started 79 games for the Cardinals over seven seasons. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
What if the Lions had passed on the opportunity to take Matthew Stafford No. 1 overall in 2009?
Not that it was a certainty, but what if the Rams had then taken Stafford with the No. 2 pick? Instead, the Rams chose Baylor tackle Jason Smith, who was expected to replace Hall of Famer Orlando Pace. Smith famously flopped, his three years in St. Louis marked by injury and underperformance. Stafford, meanwhile, has been a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback for the past eight years and counting. Taking Stafford would've provided the Rams with a smooth transition from Marc Bulger and locked down the most important position for a decade. Who knows what would've come after? The Rams would've never drafted Sam Bradford, would've never had to move up to take Jared Goff. And they might not be coming off their 10th consecutive losing season. -- Alden Gonzalez
San Francisco 49ers
What if the 49ers had drafted Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith No. 1 overall in 2005?
After the golden era of 49ers quarterback play spearheaded by Joe Montana and Steve Young had come to an end, the team found itself in a perpetual search to find the next in line. After a series of misses, the 49ers finally had their chance with the first pick in the 2005 draft. The choice came down to Utah's Smith or Cal's Rodgers. Rodgers grew up and played in the Niners' backyard (similar to Tom Brady, another eventual star quarterback the 49ers passed on) but then-coach Mike Nolan didn't view Rodgers as being the "safe" choice. Nolan believed Rodgers was arrogant and had questions about his throwing motion. The Niners went with Smith, who turned into a solid if unspectacular quarterback, while Rodgers has turned into one of the league's best players. Twelve years later, the 49ers' search for a franchise quarterback is still ongoing. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
What if the Seahawks had drafted Andy Dalton in 2011?
General manager John Schneider reportedly was ready to pick Dalton with the 25th pick before the team decided to go with offensive lineman James Carpenter. Had the Seahawks gone with Dalton, they almost certainly would not have selected Russell Wilson the following season. Would Dalton have won the starting job as a rookie like Wilson did? Given the talent on defense, how far could a Dalton-led Seahawks team have gotten? The Bengals have never won a playoff game with Dalton at QB. The Seahawks have made it to the divisional round in every season with Wilson. -- Sheil Kapadia
Buffalo Bills
What if the Bills had drafted Rob Gronkowski in 2010?
The Buffalo area is not a hotbed of NFL prospects, but Gronkowski -- perhaps the greatest tight end in NFL history -- grew up in nearby Williamsville, New York, and easily could have played for his hometown team. Every team except the Ravens, Panthers and Bears passed up Gronkowski before the Patriots selected him No. 42 in 2010. But the Bills had the No. 41 selection and took defensive tackle Torell Troup, whose career was cut short by a back injury. It is debatable whether Gronkowski would have been as successful without Tom Brady throwing him passes in Buffalo, but consider this: Of the 44 tight ends drafted by the Bills all-time, none has made the Pro Bowl. Gronkowski has made it four times. -- Mike Rodak
Miami Dolphins
What if the Dolphins had drafted Darrelle Revis in 2007?
The Dolphins' 2007 draft was littered with "what ifs?" but the biggest was ninth overall pick Ted Ginn Jr., who was not close to being a No. 1 receiver. There were plenty of franchise players available such as Revis, linebacker Patrick Willis and running back Marshawn Lynch. Miami also selected quarterback bust John Beck in the second round and tailback Lorenzo Booker in the third round that year in a draft that contributed to its worst record (1-15) in franchise history. -- James Walker
New England Patriots
What if the Patriots had drafted Jerry Rice in 1985?
The Patriots traded the 16th pick in the draft to San Francisco, along with a third-round selection, in exchange for picks in the first (28th), second (56th) and third (84th) rounds. The 49ers selected Rice with the 16th overall pick. Perhaps Rice never would have had the same Pro Football Hall of Fame career, or maybe he would have starred in New England and the team's current run of success would have started even sooner. That's a fun one to consider, right there with what life would be like for the Patriots if they didn't turn in their 2000 draft card with Tom Brady's name on it in the sixth round (199th overall). -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
What if the Jets had drafted Brett Favre in 1991?
The Jets thought they had a trade worked out with the Cardinals. The plan was to switch places with the Cards in the second round and pick Favre, whom the Jets had rated as the No. 1 player on their draft board. (They had no first-round pick.) At the last minute, the trade fell apart. Favre went to the Falcons and, with the next pick, the Jets settled for QB Browning Nagle. His career consisted of 500 fewer touchdown passes than Favre. -- Rich Cimini
Baltimore Ravens
What if the Ravens drafted Tom Brady in 2000?
Matt Cavanaugh, Baltimore's offensive coordinator at the time, placed a second- or third-round grade on Brady, but he didn't sell Brady as a can't-miss prospect. As a result, the Ravens selected quarterback Chris Redman in the third round. Redman won a total of four games in his eight-year career, while Brady became the first quarterback to win five Super Bowls after being selected in the sixth round by the Patriots. The Ravens are left to wonder what Brady could've done for them if paired with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on defense. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
What if the Bengals traded with the Saints instead of sticking with Akili Smith in 1999?
The Saints offered the Bengals nine picks -- all of their picks in 1999, first-round picks in 2000 and 2001, and a second-round pick in 2002. But the Bengals didn't budge from the No. 3 overall pick and selected Smith, who was benched by his second season. If the Bengals had accepted the offer, they would have moved down to No. 12 in the 1999 draft, but at least had the No. 2 overall pick in the 2000 draft in addition to their original pick. On the board at that time -- Brian Urlacher. In 2002, the Bengals likely would have picked No. 23 overall via the trade, in addition to their other original first-round selection. Drew Brees would have still been available. The Bengals, however, would have actually had to hit on those extra draft picks. Of all the players they selected in 1999 and 2000, none made the Pro Bowl as a Bengal. They didn't strike gold until 2001, when they selected wide receiver Chad Johnson in the second round. The Bengals went 4-12 in 1999, 4-12 in 2000, 6-10 in 2001 and 2-14 in 2002, finally righting the ship in 2003 when they hired Marvin Lewis and drafted quarterback Carson Palmer. Could one of those extra picks have changed the direction of the franchise starting in 1999? -- Katherine Terrell
Cleveland Browns
What if the Browns had drafted Khalil Mack and Derek Carr in 2014?
The team never gave much consideration to Mack, who has turned into a star for the Raiders. Had the Browns taken Carr, their quarterback saga might have ended. The most painful part of the story: Instead of Mack and Carr, the Browns wound up with Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel in the first round. It's not overstating it to say that draft set the Browns back five years. -- Pat McManamon
Pittsburgh Steelers
What if the Steelers had drafted Darrelle Revis in 2007?
In Mike Tomlin's first season with the franchise, Revis went one selection ahead of the team's No. 15 pick, which it used on linebacker Lawrence Timmons. What if Revis fell one more spot? The Steelers' defense would have rolled out a vicious corner tandem of Ike Taylor and Revis, who grew up in the Pittsburgh area. Revis would test his shrewd business sense with the Steelers' patient, tradition-rich organizational approach. Perhaps Revis could have retired on his own terms -- as a Hall of Famer in his hometown. -- Jeremy Fowler
Houston Texans
What if the Texans had drafted Derek Carr in 2014?
After a 2-14 season, the Texans had the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. They used the first overall pick on Jadeveon Clowney, but Carr was still on the board at No. 33. Instead, Houston took guard Xavier Su'a-Filo, who has not been an impact player thus far. Carr, who is the brother of former Texans No. 1 pick David Carr, had a breakout season in 2016 and has been consistent for the Raiders for the past three seasons. Meanwhile, the Texans have started eight different quarterbacks during that time period. -- Sarah Barshop
Indianapolis Colts
What if the Colts had taken Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning No. 1 overall in 1998?
The state-of-the-art Lucas Oil Stadium likely wouldn't be in Indianapolis because Leaf lasted only three seasons in the league. Manning's right arm and intelligence helped the Colts to 11 seasons of 10 or more victories, 11 postseasons and a Super Bowl title. Manning is a lock to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The Colts are hoping their decision to take Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick over Robert Griffin III in 2012 will end as well. -- Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars
What if the Jags drafted Russell Wilson in 2012?
The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in 2011 and brought in Chad Henne as a free agent in March 2012, so there was no reason for the Jaguars to consider taking a quarterback in the 2012 draft. That's why they never even considered Wilson in the third round, instead opting to use the 70th overall pick on punter Bryan Anger. Four picks later, Seattle took Wilson -- who had a fantastic career at NC State and Wisconsin -- and eventually led the Seahawks to a pair of Super Bowl appearances. How much different would the Jaguars' fortunes be in the weak AFC South had Wilson been the starter over the past five seasons? It's unlikely the franchise would be entering the 2017 draft having lost at least 11 games for six consecutive seasons. -- Mike DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
What if the Titans had drafted Randy Moss in 1998?
He was still on the board at No. 16, when the Titans were the Tennessee Oilers, but they drafted Kevin Dyson out of Utah instead. Dyson had the ball in his hands for the franchise's two iconic moments: the Music City Miracle and the stretch that came up short of the goal line and a tie on the final play of Super Bowl XXXIV. But Moss, drafted 21st in Minnesota, scored 17 TDs as a rookie, 92 in eight years with the Vikings and 156 in his 14 seasons. The Titans have yet to have a receiver nearly as dynamic. Moss was with three teams in 2010, including eight games with the Titans when they had no idea what to do with him at that stage. -- Paul Kuharsky
Denver Broncos
What if coach Josh McDaniels had done more with the Broncos' 2009 class?
The team had two first-round picks -- Knowshon Moreno and Robert Ayers -- who never were selected to a Pro Bowl. McDaniels, by then the lead voice in the Broncos' personnel decisions, traded a first-round pick to move up in the second round to take Alphonso Smith, whom he eventually shipped out. One of the other second-rounders, tight end Richard Quinn, didn't think he would be drafted and never caught a pass for the team. Of the 10 players in the draft class, Moreno led the team in rushing three times, but only safety David Bruton Jr. (a fourth-rounder) consistently played at or above the level of where he was selected. The Broncos had five picks in the draft's top 64 players -- two became starters and none was named to a Pro Bowl. McDaniels was fired 12 games into the 2010 season. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
What if the Chiefs could've drafted Andrew Luck?
In 2013, the one time the Chiefs had the draft's No. 1 overall pick, there was no quarterback worthy of such a lofty selection. But if Andrew Luck had stayed at Stanford for his final season instead of declaring for the 2012 draft, there would have been. There's no telling what the Chiefs would have accomplished the past four seasons if Luck was their quarterback. But it's safe to say they would have done better than one AFC West title and one playoff victory. -- Adam Teicher
Los Angeles Chargers
What if Peyton Manning had fallen to the Chargers at No. 2 overall in 1998?
The move would have put a team four years removed from a Super Bowl appearance right back in position to contend for an NFL title, and also changed the career paths of future franchise quarterbacks in Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, as the Chargers likely would have passed on both with Manning in the fold. And a Super Bowl appearance led by Manning could have been the driving force to get a stadium deal done in America's Finest City, so perhaps the Chargers could have stayed put in San Diego. However, just like younger brother Eli, Peyton Manning may not have been thrilled about the possibility of playing for the Chargers, so perhaps we would have seen another draft day trade. -- Eric D. Williams
Oakland Raiders
What if the Raiders had drafted Dan Marino No. 26 overall in 1983 instead of Don Mosebar?
Yes, we already know the Raiders believed they had a deal for John Elway hijacked by the NFL earlier in the day, but when it came time for the Raiders to pick, there sat Marino, who was free-falling and could only watch as other QBs in Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien all went before him. Unfounded drug rumors circulating about Marino scared off the Raiders, who thought they were set with Jim Plunkett and former first-round pick Marc Wilson, and Marino went one selection later to Miami. Mosebar had a solid career, going to three Pro Bowls, but Marino was a Hall of Famer. How much better might he have been with the Raiders' defense? How much better would the Raiders have been with Marino under center in the 1980s and '90s? "[We] made a bad, bad mistake in relationship to Marino," former Raiders director of player personnel Ron Wolf said on an ESPN 30 for 30 special on that 1983 draft. "To this day I call him Dan, Dan Mosebar. Because [we] blew [it on] Marino. And he knows that." Perhaps Marino wins a Super Bowl or two and the galvanized Raiders do not become nomads, never leaving Los Angeles for a return trip to Oakland with a future engagement in Las Vegas on the horizon. -- Paul Gutierrez
Season Tickets
- By Ramhusker
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 1 Replies
Got this email today. Y'all ready????????????????????
Dear Rams Fan,
The 2017 NFL schedule will be released on Thursday at 5 PM PT and we will find out who we play in our home opener as well as when the Seahawks, Redskins and Eagles will face us and our fans at the Coliseum.
Given this impending release, we have some important Rams ticket information to share. We are pleased to let you know that season tickets will become available to our Deposit Holders on the Waitlist in priority order starting next week. These tickets will be the best available locations throughout the Coliseum at the lowest available price.
If you are interested in joining the Waitlist, you must visit therams.com/tickets and put down a $100 refundable deposit to secure your spot. In addition to having access to Rams season tickets, exclusive presales and other special offers, Deposit Holders have priority over the general public to purchase seats in the new Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park.
In addition, we are pleased to make a limited number of single-game tickets available for purchase on therams.com/tickets starting Wednesday, April 26. Should you join the Waitlist, you may participate in the exclusive 48-hour presale for Deposit Holders starting Monday, April 24th at 10 am PT. As a reminder, you will have access to better seat locations at lower prices when our season ticket sales process opens up to Deposit Holders next week.
Los Angeles Rams Season Ticket Members enjoy several exclusive benefits and special offers, including:
Thank you for your continued support and we look forward to seeing you at the Coliseum this fall. Go Rams!
Sincerely,
Jake Bye - Vice President of Consumer Sales & Marketing
Key Dates
Please add Rams@team.nfl.com to your safe sender address book.
You were sent this email because you are valued Season Ticket Member
Contact me here to remove your name
from our communications.
29899 Agoura Rd, Los Angeles CA, 91301
Dear Rams Fan,
The 2017 NFL schedule will be released on Thursday at 5 PM PT and we will find out who we play in our home opener as well as when the Seahawks, Redskins and Eagles will face us and our fans at the Coliseum.
Given this impending release, we have some important Rams ticket information to share. We are pleased to let you know that season tickets will become available to our Deposit Holders on the Waitlist in priority order starting next week. These tickets will be the best available locations throughout the Coliseum at the lowest available price.
If you are interested in joining the Waitlist, you must visit therams.com/tickets and put down a $100 refundable deposit to secure your spot. In addition to having access to Rams season tickets, exclusive presales and other special offers, Deposit Holders have priority over the general public to purchase seats in the new Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park.
In addition, we are pleased to make a limited number of single-game tickets available for purchase on therams.com/tickets starting Wednesday, April 26. Should you join the Waitlist, you may participate in the exclusive 48-hour presale for Deposit Holders starting Monday, April 24th at 10 am PT. As a reminder, you will have access to better seat locations at lower prices when our season ticket sales process opens up to Deposit Holders next week.
Los Angeles Rams Season Ticket Members enjoy several exclusive benefits and special offers, including:
- Paying less per game compared to single-game ticket buyers;
- Exclusive access to Rams Training Camp, a chance to attend the NFL Draft and Pro Bowl, and trips to Rams road games;
- Right of first refusal for your seats to Rams home playoff games;
- Online Account Manager, where you can easily donate or sell tickets for games you cannot attend;
- Priority access to purchase season tickets at the new LA Stadium at Hollywood Park.
Thank you for your continued support and we look forward to seeing you at the Coliseum this fall. Go Rams!
Sincerely,
Jake Bye - Vice President of Consumer Sales & Marketing
Key Dates
- Thursday, April 20 - 2017 NFL Schedule Release
- Friday, April 21 at 10 am PT – Season Ticket Member exclusive 72-hour presale for single-game tickets
- Monday, April 24 at 10 am PT – Deposit Holder exclusive 48-hour presale for single-game tickets
- Wednesday, April 26 at 10 am PT – Single-game tickets on-sale to all fans
- Week of April 24 – Season Tickets available to Deposit Holders
Please add Rams@team.nfl.com to your safe sender address book.
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29899 Agoura Rd, Los Angeles CA, 91301
Do you care to Hazard a guess ...
- By DaveFan'51
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 25 Replies
The actual new schedule for the 2017 season is due out tomorrow! Would you care to hazard a guess as to who The Rams 1st Home game will be against!?
And who the Rams 1st who the Rams 1st away game will be against!?
I'll guess 1st!!
1st Home game - The Washington Redskins!
1st Away game - Seattle Sea-Hawks!:snicker::shades:
Your Turn!!
And who the Rams 1st who the Rams 1st away game will be against!?
I'll guess 1st!!
1st Home game - The Washington Redskins!
1st Away game - Seattle Sea-Hawks!:snicker::shades:
Your Turn!!
Ranking the 2017 NFL Head Coaches
- By CGI_Ram
- RAMS / NFL TALK
- 25 Replies
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/r...ach-from-bill-belichick-to-the-class-of-2017/
Call it the great coaching divide. That ís what we have in the NFL today. There ís New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, and the rest -- no matter how you stack them -- are way, way, way behind.
Belichick is arguably the greatest coach of all time, a sentiment bolstered by continued success in the era of free agency and roster turnover. Of course, Tom Brady cures almost any ills and allows Belichick to be bold with his roster, but even so he is a detail freak who gets the most out of his players and is unreal when it comes to game planning.
Add all that to his five Super Bowl rings and Belichick is the obvious No. 1 on my list ranking current coaches from 1-32. Nobody else is in the conversation and it's not because there aren't plenty of good coaches in this league.
Belichick drives fantasy players nuts because they never can tell what the Patriots will do on offense from week to week. And on defense, Belichick's hybrid unit is as unpredictable as they come. It's all testament to his greatness: You never know what ís coming.
He ís not afraid to take chances. Those Super Bowl rings -- including the latest, the epic comeback vs. Atlanta after trailing 28-3 in the second half -- are his skins on the wall. They allow him freedom to gamble, though any risk is always calculated.
I can't read enough about Belichick and his philosophy. Books or stories about him are textbooks on coaching and team building. This might sound like I am slobbering about the guy, but he has made some bonehead decisions late in games -- which I am quick to point out, much to the chagrin of Patriots nation -- though none of them diminish his football genius; it just shows that even the best can screw up situational coaching.
Even though he got lucky getting Brady in the sixth round -- that's the only way to describe drafting the greatest of all time that late -- Belichick also has helped mold Brady into the player we see today.
It's always a treat to log onto Patriots.com and watch Belichick break down tape of players and plays. I recommend it to anybody who wants to take a look behind the curtain at this football savant.
For this list, I'm ranking 27 coaches who have experience, with the five first-time coaches tied at No. 28. It wouldn't be fair to rank them since they have yet to coach a game. They have a long way to go to sniff Belichick territory. Then again, so does everybody else.
1. Bill Belichick, Patriots
Five Super Bowl victories solidifies this spot. It's hard to consider any conversation about the best ever without his name coming up. How much longer will he do it is the question. He has a winning percentage of .673, which is 11th all time, one spot behind Don Shula. He has 237 regular-season victories, which is fourth all time, and he can tie Tom Landry for third if he wins 13 next season. Shula appears to be out of reach with 328, but he did it in 33 seasons. Belichick has done it in 22, although 14 of Shulaís seasons came with a 14-game schedule and one shortened to nine because of a strike. The guy is legend, and it ís a treat to watch him work -- even when he blows the end of games. Yes, that's another dig.
USATSI
2. Mike McCarthy, Packers
There were some who wanted him fired the past two seasons. That was purely absurd. He has the second-best winning percentage (.651) of any active coach, behind Belichick. He has had double-digit victories in eight of his 11 seasons with the Packers, with only one losing season. He also has a Super Bowl win, but gets dinged some for his 10-8 playoff record. With Aaron Rodgers, some expect more. Maybe one more ring ends the debate.
USATSI
3. Andy Reid, Chiefs
He has had three losing seasons in 18 as a head coach, one of those in his first with the Eagles in 1999. He has had 11 seasons of 10 or more victories, including the past two seasons with the Chiefs. He has been to the playoffs 12 times, but reached the Super Bowl only once and has an 11-12 postseason record, which hurts. Even so, he's a damn good coach. I know he doesn't have a ring, but he has done some amazing things, which is why he's in this third spot, above some guys who have won rings.
USATSI
4. Pete Carroll, Seahawks
He has been an NFL coach in three different spots, totaling 11 seasons. His has a .588 career winning percentage, but he has a .629 percentage in his seven seasons in Seattle, with one Super Bowl victory and was a yard away from a second. He has at least 10 victories in each of the past five seasons. His easy-going approach with players has paid off big. It's hard to believe he turns 66 this September, but there is a lot of good coaching left in him.
USATSI
5. Mike Tomlin, Steelers
In his 10 seasons with the Steelers, he has never had a losing record. That's impressive. He has seven seasons of double-digit victories and is 1-1 in Super Bowls and 8-6 overall in postseason play. There are some who question whether he's just a guy who oversees everything rather than a hands-on coach. I don't buy that. He knows what it takes to win, no matter how he gets it done.
USATSI
6. Asshole Face, Saints
There are some who will say three consecutive 7-9 seasons should drop him, but I don't buy it. Take a look at the roster. Yes, he's responsible for some of it, but I think the blame goes above him. The defense has lacked play-makers. Payton is still one of the league's best offensive minds. If he were a free-agent coach, he would be signed in an instant. He has five seasons of double-digit victories and no season worse than 7-9. He also won a Super Bowl. If they fix the defense this season -- and they've made strides -- they will be in the mix again to get back to the Super Bowl.
USATSI
7. John Harbaugh, Ravens
He has five seasons of double-digit victories in nine with the Ravens, and he has one Super Bowl victory, that coming in the 2012 season. He has had only one losing season, a 5-11 stinker in 2015, and he's only 13-19 the past two seasons without a playoff berth. It hasn't helped that he has changed offensive coordinators like he changes underwear. That makes Ravens fans a little jumpy when it comes to their coach. This could be a big year for Harbaugh and his job status. Three non-playoff seasons would be tough to overcome.
USATSI
8. Adam Gase, Dolphins
He is a star in the making. Gase took over the Dolphins last season and got a team hardly stacked with talent to 10-6 and into the playoffs. He has great give-and-take with his players, knowing when to push and when to pull back. He is also a great offensive mind, which you need in this league today. One more thing: He is a maniac when it comes to working, which can be seen in his preparation. A few years from now, he might top this list when Belichick retires if he can keep it going forward.
USATSI
9. Bruce Arians, Cardinals
He had his first losing season as Cardinals coach in 2016, going 7-8-1 in what can only be described as a major disappointment. But, counting his interim stint with the Colts in 2012, Arians has a .648 winning percentage, third best among active coaches. His players love him, and he's a keen offensive mind. If there's one criticism, he needs to fix his special teams.
USATSI
10. Bill O'Brien, Texans
O'Brien has gone 9-7 in each of his first three seasons with the Texans, making the playoffs the past two and winning a playoff game last season. That's unreal considering the quarterback situation since he has been there. He has coached the heck out of this team without a true franchise passer. Imagine if he gets one? He's a smart offensive mind who plays without a true weapon under center. That's the definition of frustration. Yet he's 27-21 over three seasons (.567). That is coaching.
USATSI
11. Chuck Pagano, Colts
Does this seem high for a guy on the hot seat after last season? Maybe, but he has a .613 winning percentage and still hasn't had a losing season in five with the Colts. This is a team that hasn't had a lot of talent, yet it has been to the postseason three times during Pagano's tenure. The past two 8-8 seasons, coming in a bad division, don't help his ranking. But the talent level wasn't good and Andrew Luck has suffered nagging injuries. If he had been fired, I think another team would have hired him quickly.
USATSI
12. Dan Quinn, Falcons
He took the Falcons to the Super Bowl in his second season, and was a blown 28-3 second-half lead away from winning a ring. The decisions made late in that game will help him grow, and he has shown amazing maturity getting past it. One of the hidden stories behind last season's Super run was how he became more involved with the defense in the second half of the season, spurring the turnaround. He has a great temperament to be a long-term success. In two years, I bet he's much higher on this list.
USATSI
13. Mike Zimmer, Vikings
It's hard to evaluate him based on an injury-decimated 2016. No coach, not even Belichick, could have sustained success through that, and yet Zimmer got the Vikings to 8-8. The year before, Zimmer led the Vikings to a division title in his second season. I think that's more of who he is as a coach than last season. His fiery approach is perfect for the modern NFL player. The offensive coordinator issues last season -- with Norv Turner walking away -- stain his résumé a little.
USATSI
14. John Fox, Bears
In his 15 seasons with Carolina, Denver and Chicago, he has been to two Super Bowls, losing both, and has five seasons of double-digit victories. He has had a rough go of it in Chicago the past two seasons, going 6-10 and 3-13, but he has had some injury issues. Even so, his belief that running the football wins games is out of date. Failing to change with the times on offense has held his teams back. His .533 winning percentage isn't that impressive, but he was 38-10 in his final three seasons in Denver. If only they had won a Super Bowl.
USATSI
15. Marvin Lewis, Bengals
He has the exact same winning percentage as Fox (.533) but has never reached a Super Bowl. In 14 seasons with the Bengals, he has six seasons with double-digit victories and four losing seasons, including 2016 when his team went 6-9-1 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010. There's pressure to win this season, or he could be out. There are a lot of Bengals fans who want him out, but ownership has been patient, and understandably so until last season. It's hard to argue with his record the past six seasons.
USATSI
16. Ron Rivera, Panthers
He led the Panthers to an NFC title in the 2015 season before a Super Bowl loss to the Broncos. Carolina had a Super hangover last season and fell to 6-10 after going 15-1 the previous season. In five seasons with the Panthers, he has two seasons of 10 or more wins, but losing records in the other four. His winning percentage is .557, thanks in large part to the 15-victory season. He is a defensive-minded coach, and he loves to run it and play great defense to win games. That's his style.
USATSI
17. Jason Garrett, Cowboys
Garrett has a .558 career winning percentage and led the Cowboys to a 12-4 record and a division title last season. He has had only one losing season in seven as Cowboys coach, including his interim stint in 2010. He is 29-19 the past three seasons and overcame the loss of quarterback Tony Romo in training camp last season to make the playoffs with rookie Dak Prescott. That was impressive. Early in his Cowboys career, he was criticized for game management and play-calling, but he has improved those areas the past few seasons.
USATSI
18. Jack Del Rio, Raiders
Del Rio has turned the Raiders into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. If quarterback Derek Carr didn't go down last season, they could have pushed the Patriots in the AFC. Del Rio was previously the coach in Jacksonville and led the Jaguars to the playoffs twice in nine seasons. He has a .509 career winning percentage, but expect that to go up the next few seasons with this young, talented team.
USATSI
19. Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers
He went 9-7 in his first season with the Bucs, justifying ownership's decision to fire Lovie Smith and make Koetter the coach after he served as offensive coordinator in 2015. Koetter is a bright offensive mind who has nice give-and-take with players. I always expected him to be a better NFL coach than college coach, where he served stints at Boise State and Arizona State. That's because he's a true football guy. He has no time for glad-handing the alums. I think Tampa Bay is finding that out, and his young team should push for a division title next season, which should move him up the list. I think he's the right guy and will have long-term success in Tampa.
USATSI
20. Jay Gruden, Redskins
He has done a nice job turning the Redskins around, going from 4-12 in his first season in 2014 to 9-7 the next and 8-7-1 in 2016. He made the playoffs in 2015, but missed out last season with a Week 17 home loss to the Giants that hurts him some on this list. His winning percentage is .448, which isn't pretty, but the first year drives it down. He is a smart offensive coach who needs to figure out how to get his team to play better defense. A change in coordinators this season might help.
USATSI
21. Jim Caldwell, Lions
Going into 2016, many expected Caldwell to struggle and maybe get fired with first-year GM Bob Quinn bringing in his own guy. But Caldwell got the Lions to the playoffs, where they lost a wild-card game to the Seahawks. If not for a late-season collapse, they would have won the division. They finished 9-7. In his three seasons with the Lions, he is 27-21. Before that, he was coach of the Colts when they went to the Super Bowl in 2009, his first year with the team. They lost to the Saints in that game. The Colts let him go after they went 2-14 without Peyton Manning in 2011.
USATSI
22. Ben McAdoo, Giants
He took the Giants to the playoffs his first season as coach in 2016, going 11-5 before losing to the Packers in the wild-card round. McAdoo, who was the offensive coordinator before taking over for Tom Coughlin, continued as the team's play-caller. The offense struggled in 2016 with McAdoo handling both roles. That will be something to watch going forward.
USATSI
23. Mike Mularkey, Titans
The Titans are Mularkey's third team after previous stops with the Bills and Jaguars. Those two stints didn't end well. He was 14-21 in two seasons with the Bills and 2-14 in one season with the Jaguars. After taking over as interim coach of the Titans in 2015, he was hired as the full-time guy last season and led the Titans to a 9-7 record. His outdated belief in running the football paid off last season as the Titans nearly won the division. The question is whether this team can continue to push for a playoff spot with that style.
USATSI
24. Hue Jackson, Browns
It's unfair to grade Jackson by his first season with the Browns. They had little talent, quarterback issues and understandably finished 1-15. He was 8-8 in his only season as the Raiders' coach in 2011. I still think he can be a darn good coach, but the body of work is so small. The Browns need to be patient and let him coach a few more seasons before passing judgment.
USATSI
25. Doug Marrone, Jaguars
He was 15-17 in two seasons with the Bills, including 9-7 in 2014 before he quit. He was 1-1 as Jacksonville's interim coach after taking over for Gus Bradley last season, which led to his hiring on a full-time basis. He is a no-nonsense guy who will bring discipline to the team, but how much is he going to be a puppet for Tom Coughlin?
USATSI
26. Doug Pederson, Eagles
When a guy starts a rookie quarterback his first season as coach, it's tough to evaluate him. But Pederson did a nice job getting the Eagles to 7-9, although they did start fast before fading. Even so, the former quarterback who learned under Andy Reid seems to have a good feel for being a head coach. As quarterback Carson Wentz improves, Pederson will look a lot better as well.
USATSI
27. Todd Bowles, Jets
In 2015, it looked like the Jets struck gold with Bowles when he led them to a 10-6 record in his first season as their coach. He did it with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, which is even more impressive. But then last season, it all came apart. The Jets finished 5-11 and many were questioning Bowles. Can he turn it around? The talent isn't good on his roster, and the quarterback situation is a mess. It will be a miracle if he does -- no matter what type of coach we think he can become.
USATSI
28. (tie) Sean McVay, Rams; Anthony Lynn, Chargers; Vance Joseph, Broncos; Kyle Shanahan, 49ers; Sean McDermott, Bills
We have no idea how these first-year guys will perform, even if you think you do, so they land here. There is a lot to be excited about in these cities, but isn't it always that way for first-time coaches?
Call it the great coaching divide. That ís what we have in the NFL today. There ís New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, and the rest -- no matter how you stack them -- are way, way, way behind.
Belichick is arguably the greatest coach of all time, a sentiment bolstered by continued success in the era of free agency and roster turnover. Of course, Tom Brady cures almost any ills and allows Belichick to be bold with his roster, but even so he is a detail freak who gets the most out of his players and is unreal when it comes to game planning.
Add all that to his five Super Bowl rings and Belichick is the obvious No. 1 on my list ranking current coaches from 1-32. Nobody else is in the conversation and it's not because there aren't plenty of good coaches in this league.
Belichick drives fantasy players nuts because they never can tell what the Patriots will do on offense from week to week. And on defense, Belichick's hybrid unit is as unpredictable as they come. It's all testament to his greatness: You never know what ís coming.
He ís not afraid to take chances. Those Super Bowl rings -- including the latest, the epic comeback vs. Atlanta after trailing 28-3 in the second half -- are his skins on the wall. They allow him freedom to gamble, though any risk is always calculated.
I can't read enough about Belichick and his philosophy. Books or stories about him are textbooks on coaching and team building. This might sound like I am slobbering about the guy, but he has made some bonehead decisions late in games -- which I am quick to point out, much to the chagrin of Patriots nation -- though none of them diminish his football genius; it just shows that even the best can screw up situational coaching.
Even though he got lucky getting Brady in the sixth round -- that's the only way to describe drafting the greatest of all time that late -- Belichick also has helped mold Brady into the player we see today.
It's always a treat to log onto Patriots.com and watch Belichick break down tape of players and plays. I recommend it to anybody who wants to take a look behind the curtain at this football savant.
For this list, I'm ranking 27 coaches who have experience, with the five first-time coaches tied at No. 28. It wouldn't be fair to rank them since they have yet to coach a game. They have a long way to go to sniff Belichick territory. Then again, so does everybody else.
Five Super Bowl victories solidifies this spot. It's hard to consider any conversation about the best ever without his name coming up. How much longer will he do it is the question. He has a winning percentage of .673, which is 11th all time, one spot behind Don Shula. He has 237 regular-season victories, which is fourth all time, and he can tie Tom Landry for third if he wins 13 next season. Shula appears to be out of reach with 328, but he did it in 33 seasons. Belichick has done it in 22, although 14 of Shulaís seasons came with a 14-game schedule and one shortened to nine because of a strike. The guy is legend, and it ís a treat to watch him work -- even when he blows the end of games. Yes, that's another dig.
USATSI
There were some who wanted him fired the past two seasons. That was purely absurd. He has the second-best winning percentage (.651) of any active coach, behind Belichick. He has had double-digit victories in eight of his 11 seasons with the Packers, with only one losing season. He also has a Super Bowl win, but gets dinged some for his 10-8 playoff record. With Aaron Rodgers, some expect more. Maybe one more ring ends the debate.
USATSI
He has had three losing seasons in 18 as a head coach, one of those in his first with the Eagles in 1999. He has had 11 seasons of 10 or more victories, including the past two seasons with the Chiefs. He has been to the playoffs 12 times, but reached the Super Bowl only once and has an 11-12 postseason record, which hurts. Even so, he's a damn good coach. I know he doesn't have a ring, but he has done some amazing things, which is why he's in this third spot, above some guys who have won rings.
USATSI
He has been an NFL coach in three different spots, totaling 11 seasons. His has a .588 career winning percentage, but he has a .629 percentage in his seven seasons in Seattle, with one Super Bowl victory and was a yard away from a second. He has at least 10 victories in each of the past five seasons. His easy-going approach with players has paid off big. It's hard to believe he turns 66 this September, but there is a lot of good coaching left in him.
USATSI
In his 10 seasons with the Steelers, he has never had a losing record. That's impressive. He has seven seasons of double-digit victories and is 1-1 in Super Bowls and 8-6 overall in postseason play. There are some who question whether he's just a guy who oversees everything rather than a hands-on coach. I don't buy that. He knows what it takes to win, no matter how he gets it done.
USATSI
There are some who will say three consecutive 7-9 seasons should drop him, but I don't buy it. Take a look at the roster. Yes, he's responsible for some of it, but I think the blame goes above him. The defense has lacked play-makers. Payton is still one of the league's best offensive minds. If he were a free-agent coach, he would be signed in an instant. He has five seasons of double-digit victories and no season worse than 7-9. He also won a Super Bowl. If they fix the defense this season -- and they've made strides -- they will be in the mix again to get back to the Super Bowl.
USATSI
He has five seasons of double-digit victories in nine with the Ravens, and he has one Super Bowl victory, that coming in the 2012 season. He has had only one losing season, a 5-11 stinker in 2015, and he's only 13-19 the past two seasons without a playoff berth. It hasn't helped that he has changed offensive coordinators like he changes underwear. That makes Ravens fans a little jumpy when it comes to their coach. This could be a big year for Harbaugh and his job status. Three non-playoff seasons would be tough to overcome.
USATSI
He is a star in the making. Gase took over the Dolphins last season and got a team hardly stacked with talent to 10-6 and into the playoffs. He has great give-and-take with his players, knowing when to push and when to pull back. He is also a great offensive mind, which you need in this league today. One more thing: He is a maniac when it comes to working, which can be seen in his preparation. A few years from now, he might top this list when Belichick retires if he can keep it going forward.
USATSI
He had his first losing season as Cardinals coach in 2016, going 7-8-1 in what can only be described as a major disappointment. But, counting his interim stint with the Colts in 2012, Arians has a .648 winning percentage, third best among active coaches. His players love him, and he's a keen offensive mind. If there's one criticism, he needs to fix his special teams.
USATSI
O'Brien has gone 9-7 in each of his first three seasons with the Texans, making the playoffs the past two and winning a playoff game last season. That's unreal considering the quarterback situation since he has been there. He has coached the heck out of this team without a true franchise passer. Imagine if he gets one? He's a smart offensive mind who plays without a true weapon under center. That's the definition of frustration. Yet he's 27-21 over three seasons (.567). That is coaching.
USATSI
Does this seem high for a guy on the hot seat after last season? Maybe, but he has a .613 winning percentage and still hasn't had a losing season in five with the Colts. This is a team that hasn't had a lot of talent, yet it has been to the postseason three times during Pagano's tenure. The past two 8-8 seasons, coming in a bad division, don't help his ranking. But the talent level wasn't good and Andrew Luck has suffered nagging injuries. If he had been fired, I think another team would have hired him quickly.
USATSI
He took the Falcons to the Super Bowl in his second season, and was a blown 28-3 second-half lead away from winning a ring. The decisions made late in that game will help him grow, and he has shown amazing maturity getting past it. One of the hidden stories behind last season's Super run was how he became more involved with the defense in the second half of the season, spurring the turnaround. He has a great temperament to be a long-term success. In two years, I bet he's much higher on this list.
USATSI
It's hard to evaluate him based on an injury-decimated 2016. No coach, not even Belichick, could have sustained success through that, and yet Zimmer got the Vikings to 8-8. The year before, Zimmer led the Vikings to a division title in his second season. I think that's more of who he is as a coach than last season. His fiery approach is perfect for the modern NFL player. The offensive coordinator issues last season -- with Norv Turner walking away -- stain his résumé a little.
USATSI
In his 15 seasons with Carolina, Denver and Chicago, he has been to two Super Bowls, losing both, and has five seasons of double-digit victories. He has had a rough go of it in Chicago the past two seasons, going 6-10 and 3-13, but he has had some injury issues. Even so, his belief that running the football wins games is out of date. Failing to change with the times on offense has held his teams back. His .533 winning percentage isn't that impressive, but he was 38-10 in his final three seasons in Denver. If only they had won a Super Bowl.
USATSI
He has the exact same winning percentage as Fox (.533) but has never reached a Super Bowl. In 14 seasons with the Bengals, he has six seasons with double-digit victories and four losing seasons, including 2016 when his team went 6-9-1 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010. There's pressure to win this season, or he could be out. There are a lot of Bengals fans who want him out, but ownership has been patient, and understandably so until last season. It's hard to argue with his record the past six seasons.
USATSI
He led the Panthers to an NFC title in the 2015 season before a Super Bowl loss to the Broncos. Carolina had a Super hangover last season and fell to 6-10 after going 15-1 the previous season. In five seasons with the Panthers, he has two seasons of 10 or more wins, but losing records in the other four. His winning percentage is .557, thanks in large part to the 15-victory season. He is a defensive-minded coach, and he loves to run it and play great defense to win games. That's his style.
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Garrett has a .558 career winning percentage and led the Cowboys to a 12-4 record and a division title last season. He has had only one losing season in seven as Cowboys coach, including his interim stint in 2010. He is 29-19 the past three seasons and overcame the loss of quarterback Tony Romo in training camp last season to make the playoffs with rookie Dak Prescott. That was impressive. Early in his Cowboys career, he was criticized for game management and play-calling, but he has improved those areas the past few seasons.
USATSI
Del Rio has turned the Raiders into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. If quarterback Derek Carr didn't go down last season, they could have pushed the Patriots in the AFC. Del Rio was previously the coach in Jacksonville and led the Jaguars to the playoffs twice in nine seasons. He has a .509 career winning percentage, but expect that to go up the next few seasons with this young, talented team.
USATSI
He went 9-7 in his first season with the Bucs, justifying ownership's decision to fire Lovie Smith and make Koetter the coach after he served as offensive coordinator in 2015. Koetter is a bright offensive mind who has nice give-and-take with players. I always expected him to be a better NFL coach than college coach, where he served stints at Boise State and Arizona State. That's because he's a true football guy. He has no time for glad-handing the alums. I think Tampa Bay is finding that out, and his young team should push for a division title next season, which should move him up the list. I think he's the right guy and will have long-term success in Tampa.
USATSI
He has done a nice job turning the Redskins around, going from 4-12 in his first season in 2014 to 9-7 the next and 8-7-1 in 2016. He made the playoffs in 2015, but missed out last season with a Week 17 home loss to the Giants that hurts him some on this list. His winning percentage is .448, which isn't pretty, but the first year drives it down. He is a smart offensive coach who needs to figure out how to get his team to play better defense. A change in coordinators this season might help.
USATSI
Going into 2016, many expected Caldwell to struggle and maybe get fired with first-year GM Bob Quinn bringing in his own guy. But Caldwell got the Lions to the playoffs, where they lost a wild-card game to the Seahawks. If not for a late-season collapse, they would have won the division. They finished 9-7. In his three seasons with the Lions, he is 27-21. Before that, he was coach of the Colts when they went to the Super Bowl in 2009, his first year with the team. They lost to the Saints in that game. The Colts let him go after they went 2-14 without Peyton Manning in 2011.
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He took the Giants to the playoffs his first season as coach in 2016, going 11-5 before losing to the Packers in the wild-card round. McAdoo, who was the offensive coordinator before taking over for Tom Coughlin, continued as the team's play-caller. The offense struggled in 2016 with McAdoo handling both roles. That will be something to watch going forward.
USATSI
The Titans are Mularkey's third team after previous stops with the Bills and Jaguars. Those two stints didn't end well. He was 14-21 in two seasons with the Bills and 2-14 in one season with the Jaguars. After taking over as interim coach of the Titans in 2015, he was hired as the full-time guy last season and led the Titans to a 9-7 record. His outdated belief in running the football paid off last season as the Titans nearly won the division. The question is whether this team can continue to push for a playoff spot with that style.
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It's unfair to grade Jackson by his first season with the Browns. They had little talent, quarterback issues and understandably finished 1-15. He was 8-8 in his only season as the Raiders' coach in 2011. I still think he can be a darn good coach, but the body of work is so small. The Browns need to be patient and let him coach a few more seasons before passing judgment.
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He was 15-17 in two seasons with the Bills, including 9-7 in 2014 before he quit. He was 1-1 as Jacksonville's interim coach after taking over for Gus Bradley last season, which led to his hiring on a full-time basis. He is a no-nonsense guy who will bring discipline to the team, but how much is he going to be a puppet for Tom Coughlin?
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When a guy starts a rookie quarterback his first season as coach, it's tough to evaluate him. But Pederson did a nice job getting the Eagles to 7-9, although they did start fast before fading. Even so, the former quarterback who learned under Andy Reid seems to have a good feel for being a head coach. As quarterback Carson Wentz improves, Pederson will look a lot better as well.
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In 2015, it looked like the Jets struck gold with Bowles when he led them to a 10-6 record in his first season as their coach. He did it with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, which is even more impressive. But then last season, it all came apart. The Jets finished 5-11 and many were questioning Bowles. Can he turn it around? The talent isn't good on his roster, and the quarterback situation is a mess. It will be a miracle if he does -- no matter what type of coach we think he can become.
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28. (tie) Sean McVay, Rams; Anthony Lynn, Chargers; Vance Joseph, Broncos; Kyle Shanahan, 49ers; Sean McDermott, Bills
We have no idea how these first-year guys will perform, even if you think you do, so they land here. There is a lot to be excited about in these cities, but isn't it always that way for first-time coaches?
