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Former NFL center Jason Brown does something truly sweet
Posted by Darin Gantt on February 14, 2018
Getty Images
Once upon a time, Jason Brown was the highest-paid center in the NFL.
Now, he’s doing something even more rewarding.
Via Aaron Moody of the Raleigh News and Observer, the former Ravens and Rams center became a farmer after he retired, and is turning over his harvest to his local community.
Brown struck it rich in football when he signed a five-year, $37.5 million deal with the Rams in free agency in 2009. When he retired after being released in 2012, he bought a 1,000-acre farm near Louisburg, N.C., and he began giving away crops from his First Fruits Farm to local charities.
The University of North Carolina product just had 40,000 pounds of sweet potatoes unloaded near campus, donating his entire crop to area food pantries and shelters.
Former NFL star dumped 20 tons of sweet potatoes on a Chapel Hill lawn – with good intent
BY AARON MOODY
It wasn’t too long ago that Jason Brown had a multimillion-dollar contract to play as a center in the NFL.
So some might find it odd that the North Carolina native and former UNC standout had 40,000 pounds of sweet potatoes dumped on a lawn next to the Chapel Hill campus, as tweets from the university showed Saturday morning.
The explanation: Brown walked away from professional football in 2012 because he wanted to feed the hungry. He bought a thousand-acre farm near Louisburg, and in 2014 his First Fruits Farm made its first donation of sweet potatoes – giving away the entire crop to area food pantries and shelters.
Rams Positional Outlook: Inside Linebackers
Kristen Lago
The 2017 Rams won their first NFC West title since 2003 with an 11-5 regular-season record. As Los Angeles’ focus shifts to 2018 and beyond, we’ll take a position-by-position look at how the Rams performed in 2017 and how each group currently stands at the start of the 2018 offseason.
— 11 total tackles || 2.0 sacks || One forced fumble and fumble recovery || Four special teams tackles
LB | Cam Lynch
— Re-signed to the Rams’ active roster in Week 13 and played three games || Two total tackles
ANY FREE AGENTS?
Lynch will be a restricted free agent in March.
LOOK BACK, LOOK AHEAD
The Rams defense underwent several changes throughout the offseason under coordinator Wade Phillips — most significantly going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. With the new scheme came a few transitions for both of the starting inside linebackers.
While the entire unit took some time to adapt to Phillips’ system, all Los Angeles’ inside linebackers showcased their playmaking abilities down the stretch.
Ogletree agreed to a four-year extension that will keep him with the Rams through the 2021 season. He has been a staple on the franchise’s defense since he was drafted in 2013 — leading the team in tackles in four of his five seasons. He was voted a captain for the second time in 2017.
Barron worked alongside Ogletree and he was one of the Rams most consistent defenders. His 108 total tackles were the second-most on the team, behind only Ogletree. And under Phillips, the Alabama product was able to showcase his impressive athleticism, especially when dropping into coverage — as evidenced by his team-leading three interceptions.
Both Hager and Littleton were also key rotational pieces, stepping in for Ogletree and Barron at various times throughout the year. Although Littleton was most impressive as a special teams contributor — blocking a league-leading two punts — he was able to fill in admirably for Barron when the linebacker suffered an Achilles injury late in the season.
Hager also developed significantly throughout the year. Because of the team’s practice schedule, the Baylor product was able to fill in for Ogletree during the preparation week. And those additional reps with the first-team helped Hager tremendously — getting him ready for situations like the Week 13 contest against the Cardinals, when Ogletree was taken out with an elbow injury.
With Hager as the defensive signal caller, the Rams limited Arizona to just 18 rushing yards in the second half. He finished the contest with with one tackle, one quarterback hit, and one pass defense.
The New England Patriots have now lost 5 Super Bowls tying them with the Denver Broncos for the most and Tom Brady did not shake Nick Foles hand after the loss....Happy Valentines Day, post amongst yourselves.
The Top 10 NFL Teams With Free-Agency Question Marks By Danny Kelly
The NFL free-agency bonanza is set to kick off on March 14, and the league-wide spending spree that comes with it has the potential to reshape teams and throw divisional power structures out of whack. The Super Bowl champion Eagles — who signed future key contributors and playoff stars in quarterback Nick Foles, receiver Alshon Jeffery, cornerback Patrick Robinson, pass rusher Chris Long, and running back LeGarrette Blount last year — are the perfect example.
But before teams can go out and spend big money to bring outside talent in, each front office must first look within, evaluate their own rosters, and prioritize which players to extend and which to let go. Just about every squad has a handful of big-impact starters or key role players set to hit free agency, but a few teams face more uncertainty than the rest. Here are the 10 NFL teams with the biggest question marks heading into free agency.
Los Angeles Rams
While the Rams are set to return most of the key pieces to an offense that led the league in points scored in 2017, they will have two major question marks on that side of the ball. The team must determine how much of its $41 million in cap space it can spare for 32-year-old center John Sullivan, and then decide whether or not to make a long-term offer to receiver Sammy Watkins, whom the team acquired last year (along with a sixth-round pick) in exchange for E.J. Gaines and a 2018 second-round pick.
Of course, those decisions are complicated by the situation on defense: With cornerback Trumaine Johnson (who will likely be the top cornerback in free agency, league-wide), nickelback Nickell Robey-Coleman, and safety Lamarcus Joyner all set to hit the open market, the team may have to dole out big money in order to keep its talented, opportunistic secondary intact.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ quarterback predicament is one of the most important story lines of the entire offseason, and the team must decide whether to pursue one of the three starting-caliber free-agent quarterbacks that were on the roster in 2017 or go out to chase one of a slew of veterans about to hit the open market (or both). Case Keenum, Minnesota’s incumbent starter, is likely the front-runner for that role in 2018, but fresh off a breakout campaign in which he led Minnesota to the NFC championship game, the 29-year-old signal-caller should have plenty of outside suitors, as well.
Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater are both high-upside but risky (because of their previous injuries) fall-back options, and with nearly $50 million in cap space heading into next year, the Vikings could set their sights on Redskins signal-caller Kirk Cousins, former Jet Josh McCown, or former Bill Tyrod Taylor instead.
Minnesota’s cap space could shrink considerably as the team looks to re-up veterans like stalwart cornerback Terence Newman (who played 555 snaps in 2017), guard Joe Berger (1,114), defensive tackle Tom Johnson (673), and running back Jerick McKinnon (527), plus retain core special teamers in return specialist Marcus Sherels and kicker Kai Forbath.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals head into free agency with zero quarterbacks under contract, an offensive line in flux, and a sizable contingent of defenders set to hit the open market. Neither Drew Stanton, Blaine Gabbert, nor Matt Barkley (all free agents) appears to be the long-term answer under center now that Carson Palmer is retired, and the Cardinals’ lack of depth in key spots on offense means attracting any of the top outside free-agent signal-callers could present a challenge.
Guards Alex Boone (who started 13 games in 2017) and Earl Watford (nine starts) are both set to be free agents, as are pass catchers Jaron Brown (31 catches, 477 yards, four touchdowns last year) and John Brown (21 catches, 299 yards, one touchdown). Running back Kerwynn Williams, who took over for an injured Adrian Peterson late in the year and played well, and talented-but-oft-injured tight end Troy Niklas are both free agents, as well.
The team has plenty of question marks heading into next year on defense, too. Safety Tyvon Branch (579 snaps in 2017), linebackers Karlos Dansby (921) and Kareem Martin (457), defensive end Frostee Rucker (606), and corners Tramon Williams (668) and Justin Bethel (452) are all set to hit the open market. With new head coach Steve Wilks taking over for the now-retired Bruce Arians, we may see a lot of roster turnover in Arizona this offseason.
New England Patriots
For New England, free agency all starts up front, with dependable left tackle Nate Solder set to join fellow linemen Cameron Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle (the latter two combined to start 10 games and play over 700 snaps in 2017) on the open market.
But that’s just the start: Dion Lewis, who emerged as the team’s foundational running back this year, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring six touchdowns on 180 totes, is about to be a free agent, too, and will be joined by the always-reliable playoff playmaker Danny Amendola, who caught 26 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns in the team’s three postseason games.
Defensively, New England is clearly prepared to move on from free-agent corner Malcolm Butler and must decide whether to re-sign defensive end James Harrison, who played well for the team down the stretch but will turn 40 before next season begins. Add in special teams standouts Matthew Slater (a first-team All-Pro this past season) and Nate Ebner (a second-team All-Pro in 2016) and the Patriots have free-agency question marks in all three phases.
New York Jets
The biggest unknown for the Jets heading into free agency is obvious: What will the team do at the quarterback position? Incumbent signal-caller Josh McCown’s a free agent, and while the journeyman veteran has expressed interest in returning to New York in 2018, the team may utilize its $73 million and change in cap space to chase after Cousins or another one of the top free-agent passers.
Past that, the Jets have decisions to make on center Wesley Johnson (15 starts in 2017), rotational guard Dakota Dozier (three starts), and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (50 catches, 357 yards, three touchdowns). They also must figure out whether to hang on to cornerback Morris Claiborne, who started 15 games, broke up eight passes, and grabbed one interception in 2017, and the Jets could face stiff competition for free-agent linebacker Demario Davis, who racked up 135 tackles and five sacks last year. Plus, kicker Chandler Catanzaro, who connected on 25 out of his 30 field goal attempts and didn’t miss an extra point, is sure to see some interest on the open market.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks head into the offseason with a bevy of big-name free agents but currently wield just $14 million and change in workable cap space. That number could change if the team cuts any of its big-money vets, but in any case, there’s not much wiggle room to retain Jimmy Graham, who led all tight ends with 10 touchdown catches in 2017, and/or pass catcher Paul Richardson, who reeled in 44 passes for 703 yards and six touchdowns last year.
The team may also struggle to lock up defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, a player they acquired from the Jets last year in exchange for Jermaine Kearse and a second-round pick. Add in expiring contracts for safety Bradley McDougald (who stood out filling in for Kam Chancellor late in the year), plus cornerback Byron Maxwell, tight end Luke Willson, and guard Luke Joeckel, Seattle may have to be very creative — or more selective — in how it approaches free agency. Oh, and the Seahawks have to find a new kicker, too.
New York Giants
The Giants face major turnover along the offensive line, with tackles D.J. Fluker (446 snaps in 2017) and Justin Pugh (436), center Weston Richburg (241), and guard John Greco (105) all set to hit the open market. The team’s running-back spot has the potential to get shallow fast with Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa both hitting free agency, and New York’s linebacker corps could be in for a total makeover too, as Jonathan Casillas (456 snaps in 2017), Keenan Robinson (292), Kelvin Sheppard (386), and Devon Kennard (544) all have contracts set to expire.
Versatile defensive back Ross Cockrell is about to head to free agency, as well. The Giants’ new brain trust under general manager Dave Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur has plenty of decisions to make over the next month, and we could see plenty of change on this New York roster this offseason.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills saw plenty of turnover in 2017 under the leadership of GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott, and when it comes to transforming the team’s roster, that duo may just be getting started. Defensively, Buffalo has several key contributors up for new deals this year, including linebackers Preston Brown (1,098 snaps in 2017) and Ramon Humber (569), cornerbacks E.J. Gaines (654), Shareece Wright (455), and Leonard Johnson (673), and defensive tackles Kyle Williams (756) and Cedric Thornton (387).
Offensively, the team must decide whether or not to re-sign receiver Jordan Matthews, and if Buffalo does end up releasing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, it’ll have to decide whether to roll with Nathan Peterman at that spot or look to free agency for help.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers took care of their most important free agent last week when they gave quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo a new five-year, $137.5 million deal. But GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan are far from done — and still have about $74 million in cap space to work with. Offensively, the team must protect their new $100 million man, and a pair of 16-game starters in center Daniel Kilgore and guard Brandon Fusco are both about to hit the open market in March.
They’ll be joined there by team’s bell-cow back from last year, Carlos Hyde. Defensively, San Francisco’s back seven could look a whole lot different in 2018 with expiring contracts for safety Eric Reid, cornerbacks Dontae Johnson and Leon Hall, and linebacker Brock Coyle.
Houston Texans
The good news for the Texans is that they should get Deshaun Watson back for the start of next year, but the bad news is that it’s unclear who exactly will protect their franchise quarterback from opposing pass rushers. With tackles Breno Giacomini and Chris Clark and guard Xavier Su’a-Filo all set to hit the open market, the team could be dangerously shallow along the offensive line.
Houston’s running back rotation could take a hit with Alfred Blue and Andre Ellington both set to be free agents, and receiver Bruce Ellington, who provided a spark late in the year before a hamstring injury ended his season, is up for a new deal, too. Defensively, the team must decide whether to bring back reliable veteran corner Johnathan Joseph (16-game starter) and safety Marcus Gilchrist (13-game starter).
Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers make this list because of one player, and one player only. Running back Le’Veon Bell racked up 1,946 yards from scrimmage last year — second only to the Rams’ Todd Gurley — scoring a combined 11 touchdowns on the ground and through the air, and is set to become a free agent when the league year opens in March.
He’s one of the NFL’s most versatile players, a mismatch-creator that Pittsburgh deploys from just about every spot on the field. But after playing on the franchise tag in 2017, Bell’s already hinted at a holdout — or even retirement — if Pittsburgh tries to slap that tag on him for a second straight year. The Steelers have a big decision to make: Do they call his bluff, give him a new contract, or let him test free agency? Their decision could have far-reaching implications for not only them, but the league at large.
Is it finally time for the Rams to walk away from Trumaine Johnson?
LOS ANGELES -- The Los Angeles Rams finally have a long-term, hard-line decision to make with Trumaine Johnson, either to pay him among the game's elite cornerbacks or let him walk away.
Speaking shortly after his team's season ended, Rams general manager Les Snead said he could "definitely" envision a scenario under which Johnson returns. Snead added that Johnson, coming off his second consecutive franchise tag, "fit" the scheme of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, a stated concern entering the 2017 season. But that fit must be, in Snead's words, "ideal."
"Especially when it gets to guys that are obviously going to demand -- command, based on their ability and their performance -- top dollar," Snead said. "They definitely have to be ideal scheme fits."
Johnson is widely considered one of the top two or three cornerbacks potentially available on the free-agent market, but the numbers say he hasn't necessarily performed at an elite level.
Among 86 cornerbacks with at least 325 coverage snaps, Pro Football Focus had Johnson ranked 35th in opponents' completion percentage (57.3) and 36th in opponents' passer rating (79.8) when targeted, which accounts for every time a receiver was thrown a pass while Johnson was considered the primary man in coverage.
Johnson assumed the role as the Rams' primary cornerback starting in 2016, when Janoris Jenkins left to join the New York Giants, and gave up an 89.4 quarterback rating that year, ranked 34th. This past season, Johnson allowed 1.33 yards per coverage snap, which put him within the bottom 20 percent of qualified cornerbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. The analytics site gave Johnson an overall grade of 74.2, tied for 68th among 121 players at his position.
That doesn't mean they all fit as alternatives, of course. Colvin and Robey-Coleman, Johnson's Rams teammate, primarily play the slot. Williams, Joseph and Grimes are approaching their mid-30s, with Newman turning 40 in September. Among those who remain, Butler, Robinson, Breeland and Gaines are shorter than 6-foot, which means they can't match the size and length of a 6-foot-2, 213-pound Johnson. Melvin -- listed at 6-foot-2, 196 pounds -- can, but has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.
That leaves five: Amukamara, Carrie, Cockrell, Fuller and Maxwell, all of whom have accumulated a lower career approximate value than Johnson.
Johnson had two interceptions in 2017 -- after recording one in 2016 -- but he also dropped a handful of easy ones. Only 10 players had more than Johnson's 12 pass breakups, according to ESPN Stats & Information. And Johnson handled himself adequately against the opposing team's primary receiver, an important factor for a Phillips defense that asks its cornerbacks to play a lot of man coverage.
Johnson spent a lot of time shadowing Pierre Garcon, Dez Bryant, Marqise Lee, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and Alshon Jeffery in 2017. Those seven combined to catch 30 of 52 targets for 472 yards and two touchdowns when Johnson was responsible for covering them, according to numbers compiled by ESPN analyst Mike Clay. They hauled in 57.7 percent of their targets, nearly eight percentage points below the NFL average.
"He does a good job," Phillips said of Johnson's ability to match up against the opponents' best receivers. "He's versatile to play both sides, which really helps you."
The Rams tried to trade Johnson last offseason, but they couldn't get a deal done. Johnson instead entered training camp upset that they never showed much interest in a long-term commitment.
"I believe the Rams are going in a different direction at the end of the season," Johnson said in late July. "It's out of my control."
But Johnson kept his focus, which is a lot easier to do with a $16.74 million salary. He was named a captain, and as the season went on and the winning became more frequent, Johnson, like so many in the Rams' locker room, progressively warmed up to the organization and its future, stating on several occasions that he would be open to trying once again to negotiate an extension.
Salaries for the top cornerbacks average somewhere in the neighborhood of $13 million a year, and Johnson could very well command something in that range this offseason.
But the Rams might not be able to allocate so much to one player at that position. Kayvon Webster, their No. 2 cornerback, is coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon that could linger into training camp, and behind him there isn't much else. The Rams need a lot more depth at corner, and they appear to prioritize safety Lamarcus Joyner among their pending free agents.
If Johnson's salary demands get too high, it might finally be time to walk away.
Former National League Rookie of the Year Wally Moon, who played for the Cardinals and Dodgers, has passed away at the age of 87.
Moon came up with the Cardinals and was named NL Rookie of the Year in 1954 after hitting .304/.371/.435 with 12 homers and 18 stolen bases. He’d man center field at first and then moved to the corner as he played in St. Louis through the 1958 season, making the All-Star team in 1957 and even earning a few down ballot MVP votes in 1956.
Moon would make his fame, however, with the Los Angeles Dodgers after being traded there following the 1958 season. At the time the Dodgers played in the Los Angeles Coliseum, which was not configured well for baseball, with the right-field fence standing 440 feet away and the left field fence only 220 feet from home plate. To compensate for the short left-field porch, the Dodgers put up a 42-foot-tall net. As a left-handed hitter, Moon had a problem but he realized that by swinging with a pronounced uppercut and attempting to push the ball the opposite way, even a moderately hard hit ball could clear that net for a homer. Moon didn’t hit a lot of homers, but in 1959 he hit a career-high 19, 14 of which came in Los Angeles. His homers came to be called, appropriate enough, “Moonshots.”
Moon’s primary calling card was his plate discipline. He hit well for contact, finishing with a .289 career average, and took his walks, finishing with a .371 career on-base percentage, leading the National League in the category in 1961 with an outstanding .434 rate. While rarely the best or most famous player on his Dodgers teams, it’s no accident that they won often with his bat in the lineup, winning the World Series in 1959 and 1963 and winning a final title when Moon was a part-time player in 1965.
Moon would retire following the 1965 season, finishing his career with a line of .289/.371/.445, for an OPS+ of 118. He hit 142 homers and knocked in 661 runs in 1,457 career regular-season games across 12 seasons.
Following his playing career Moon would coach for the San Diego Padres and later managed and owned the Dodgers minor league franchise in San Antonio and took other minor league managing jobs, notably in the Yankees system.
As talented as he is, Todd Gurley was viewed as somewhat of a question mark entering the 2017 season. He posted one of the worst seasons in recent memory two years ago when he rushed for 885 yards on 278 carries – one fewer attempt than he had in 2017, when he rushed for 1,305 yards.
No one was calling him a bust, but some questioned whether he could return to a Pro Bowl level in Los Angeles. He silenced those few doubters by leading the league in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns.
His performance this past season established him as a top-level running back, erasing any concerns about his future. That being said, the Rams could still use an addition at the position this offseason.
Lance Dunbar didn’t pan out, Malcolm Brown is a restricted free agent and Tavon Austin – who played mostly at running back – isn’t likely to return in 2018. That leaves Gurley as the only quality back on the roster.
Sure, Justin Davis is still there, but he had trouble holding onto the football in 2017 and is unsure to even make the team next season. Brown should be back as a restricted free agent, but having a dynamic pass-catching back is something Sean McVay would certainly like.
Unfortunately, there won’t be many affordable options in free agency, but the Rams could look to the draft as a way to add a change-of-pace back. That doesn’t necessarily mean they should spend a third or even fourth-round pick on one, but with three sixth-round picks, there are a few guys who could make an impact.
With a deep crop of running backs in this year’s class, talented guys will be pushed down the board, simply because there are so many good players at the position.
Akrum Wadley out of Iowa would be a nice option, but he’s unlikely to last beyond the fifth round. That’d be a bit rich for the Rams, because of how low of a need running back is. If he were to slip to the sixth round, however, the Rams should pounce. The same goes for Nyheim Hines from N.C. State and John Kelly out of Tennessee.
Both can contribute as third-down backs and change-of-pace guys who can make big plays on offense, which is exactly what the Rams hoped Dunbar would be. Kelly is a bit on the smaller side, which will hurt his draft stock, but he’ll boost it at the combine when he runs and goes through the agility drills.
Drafting a running back isn’t a must by any means for the Rams, but unless Dunbar and Austin return, they could use a scat back to contribute in the passing game.
Who is the 6-foot, 195 pound WR Dante Pettis?
Pettis is an explosive receiver and returner that has been a huge part of the Washington offense over the past few seasons. His cousin is former Rams WR Austin Pettis and he's the big reason Dante ended up at Washington. Head coach Chris Peterson coached Austin at Boise State and now at Washington, lured Dante to sign there. Pettis is an interesting prospect that is going to generate a lot of buzz after the first round of the NFL Draft.
Strengths
Pettis possesses the explosion off the line of scrimmage to beat the cornerback cushion and has the subtle hand usage to beat the press. He's played outside and he's played in the slot and will be able to do either at the next level. He has the lateral agility to easily cut right into the secondary with his smooth hips and cutting ability which makes him a prime big-play target once he gets behind the safeties. He uses no wasted motion in getting downfield and does a great job of using his head and his whole upper body to use route deception and fool defenders. When in space, Pettis is almost unstoppable, he's quick, decisive in his vision and he just knows how to make a man miss. His route running is some of the most consistent you will find in this draft, his hands are natural and his body control is great near the line of scrimmage. His ability to finish the play while contested is really impressive and he flashes the ability to go up and get the 50-50 ball consistently if given the opportunity. He has a keen awareness of what is going on around the field at all times and he's a willing and able blocker. He's also likely the best return man coming out of this class and is going to be a great player at the next level.
Weaknesses
The weaknesses for Pettis are lacking and that's a great thing when you look at it. Pettis simply just doesn't have the ideal outside receiver frame and would likely want to bulk up a bit and he doesn't have the long speed that will translate everything he does to the NFL.
How does he fit with the Rams?
Really well, this is someone that has a limited amount of weaknesses and if chosen, he would give the Rams the opportunity to move on from Sammy Watkins. Yes, Austin Pettis' cousin probably makes the most sense for the Rams out of any receiver in this draft. He is going to be able to fit right into Sean McVay's scheme right away with his route running ability, willingness and ability to block and of course his big-play ability. Pettis is also an excellent returner that would fit in well next to Pharoh Cooper on the kickoff. He has a lot of the little nuances in his game that will leave him more polished than many in this class and will allow him to play right away. If the Rams scooped up another third round pick or even a second, Pettis would have to be an option if they didn't want to pay Watkins. If Watkins comes back on a long-term deal, this probably doesn't happen. However, if he is tagged or doesn't come back at all, Pettis makes a ton of sense for the Rams.
Draft Grade
Rounds 2 - 3
Player comparison
Jeremy Maclin
I really like comparing Dante Pettis to Paul Richardson but Richardson I realize is likely because of the frame. It didn't make much sense when I went back and thought about it so now we have Jeremy Maclin. Of course, Maclin has faltered later in his career but he has been a model of consistency for the majority of his tenure in the NFL and really doesn't have too many weaknesses like Pettis. Both stand at 6-feet tall and both aren't extremely bulky but are quick and very reliable receivers. Pettis, like Maclin, is likely to be overshadowed by a receiver for the majority of his career and then once that receiver leaves he's going to be appreciated and people will realize how good he really is. I expect that same type of scenario to happen because neither guy has that blazing 4.3 speed and neither guy is a big 6-foot-4 receiver. Maclin and Pettis are both outstanding route runners that explode off the line of scrimmage and both have solid hands that make them a huge threat on 3rd down. This might even be the guy that is labeled a "possession receiver" for awhile in the NFL but you need him and you are going to realize like Maclin, Pettis is way more than just a guy. Pettis can be a number one receiver at the next level if everything goes the right way for him.
Todd Gurley had a tremendous season in 2017. No one will deny that. He finished second in rushing, first in yards from scrimmage and first in touchdowns. He jumped over people regularly, made them look foolish in the open field and was arguably the Rams’ best pass-catcher this past season.
He didn’t do it all by himself, though. He got plenty of help from his friends – his very big friends.
The Rams offensive line was outstanding in 2017, from Andrew Whitworth to Rob Havenstein. It was nominated for Offensive Line of the Year after performing like one of the worst units in the league just one year prior.
One statistic, in particular, puts into perspective just how great Los Angeles’ front five were. Only one offensive line produced more yards before contact than the Rams, and it was by the slimmest of margins. Carolina averaged 1.91 yards before contact per attempt, while the Rams were second at 1.89, according to PFF.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
No team, however, was better at opening up holes in the middle of the line than the Rams. L.A. averaged 3.02 yards before contact per carry, while the next-best team was Kansas City at 2.66. No other team averaged more than 1.92.
What this means is that the Rams offensive line did a great job leading the way for Gurley, keeping defenders off of him beyond the line of scrimmage on most carries.
Gurley obviously did plenty of work himself, but the offensive line is not to be overlooked.
Wristband 145: Behind The Play That Confused The Patriots and Gave The Eagles The Super Bowl LII Win By Peter King
FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: FRANK REICH, DOUG PEDERSON AND MIKE GROH (PETER KING/THE MMQB)
“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”
—American historian Will Durant, interpreting Aristotle
The quote is on the grease board above the pristine desk of Eagles coach Doug Pederson.
-------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA — Saturday morning. Silence, for the first time all week, in the Nova Care Complex offices of the Super Bowl Bowl champion Eagles in this hungover city. Two days ago, the parade happened. “The noise,” offensive coordinator Frank Reich said, smiling at the memory. “From the start of the parade, way down here, to the steps of the art museum, more than two hours, it sounded like a big play just happened in our stadium. The decibel level was that high; it hurt your ears. So we can use a quiet day.”
Three men here were thankful for the serenity—coach Doug Pederson, Reich and wide receivers coach Mike Groh. Pederson particularly, sucking Halls cherry cough drops, looked like he couldn’t wait to disappear. (The Eagles are off this week.) On this morning, the three men gathered to surgically take apart one play, the play that six days earlier finished off the Patriots and gave the Eagles their first Super Bowl title in history.
There is so much about this play—the play that Philadelphians will see on replay and remember precisely where they were watching it, and with whom, forever—that also says so much about modern football:
• The research, involving Bruce Arians, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Shula, Dan Quinn and, surprisingly, the stunning reach of the Pro Football Focusdatabase;
• The spy vs. spy element of the mysterious Patriot undercover scout Ernie Adams versus a crew of little-known coaches, such as the Eagles’ receivers coach, Groh, the son of Al Groh, who succeeded Bill Belichick when he resigned as HC of the NYJ in 2000;
• The strategic mystery of the bunch/stack formations, with the legal pick plays that have become a quiet and defense-disrupting story in the NFL, and used by so many good offensive minds;
• And finally, the understanding that there is no limit to good football ideas. The Eagles used a strange motion on this play call Star motion, a Jet Sweep sort of motion behind the quarterback that they used only 12 previous times in 1,217 plays this season prior to the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl. The Patriots did not handle Star motion well, leaving the middle of the field wide open (big mistake I) and causing two crucial Patriots to bump into each other like a couple of Keystone Kops (big mistake II).
The winning play highlighted so much of what made the Eagles hard to stop in 2017. Fourth quarter, 2:25 left, Philadelphia trailed 33-32. Eagles ball, third-and-seven at the New England 11.
“Nick!” Pederson said into quarterback Nick Foles’ helmet. “Wristband 145. Wristband 145!”
Foles wears a wristband with the Eagles’ play sheet for the day on it. In the Super Bowl, the wristband had 194 plays in tiny agate type. Pederson scanned all his possible third-down calls and found one he’d liked for weeks … number 145, a triple-bunch formation clustered to the right, a speedy back in Star motion, and tight end Zach Ertz alone at the left of the formation.
Foles looked at the wristband and found play 145. With the play clock running, Foles said to his huddle: “Gun trey left, open buster star motion … 383 X follow Y slant.”
The strangest thing here is that the Patriots—the peerless Patriots, with the greatest coach of our day, and the research power of 10 teams combined in the beautiful mind of Adams—erred significantly on it. What did I learn from studying the winning Super Bowl play?
It’s fine to put Bill Belichick on the Mount Rushmore of coaches in the 98-season history of the NFL, because he truly deserves it. But it does not mean that the great and powerful Oz doesn’t make mistakes. And Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia made a mistake here. You can hear it on NFL Films, from the wiring of the game: “Third-down here. We’re gonna have to double 86.”
Though the play started with a possible double-coverage plan for 86, who is tight end Zach Ertz, that was eliminated when the deep safety followed the Eagle back in motion. (Seen here.) So the Patriots did not double 86. How does Patricia’s communication not get to the field on the biggest play of the season—or how do the Patriots not account for the real possibility of the safety vacating his space to follow a motion man? That’s something the Patriots could be haunted by, the way they’ve haunted so many teams since the turn of the century.
One more plot-thickening thing about Play 145. When the Eagles got on the plane for Minneapolis seven days before Super Bowl, Pederson had his working play sheet that had been established for the week of practice back in Philadelphia. It was the most important sheet he’d use in his life, the sheet he’d mine to try to beat the great Belichick in Super Bowl 52.
But 383 X follow Y slant was nowhere to be seen. It was not in the game plan.
All season, every week, every offensive coach on the Eagles had an assignment: find a play or plays better than those on Pederson’s play sheet. So Groh, along with all the coaches, went to work. In a lonely room at the Radisson Blu Hotel at the Mall of America halfway across the country, Groh dove in one more time, on stacks-and-bunches plays and all others he thought might be valuable, to see if he could find one great third-down call that beat any of the third-down calls on Pederson’s play sheet.
For the 22nd straight Monday of the 2017 NFL season, Groh looked for a better way, a better play.
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This week-after-the-Super Bowl column is always one of my favorite MMQBs of the season. Going back to Eli Manning dissecting the impossibly beautiful throw to Mario Manningham to help beat the Patriots six years ago, to Tom Brady’s play-by-play of the Super Bowl comeback last year, it’s the column of the season that usually allows me to dive deepest into the whys of what we’ve seen in the biggest game of the year.
After the Super Bowl, I kept thinking, even with the surprising Malcolm Butler benching, how amazing it was that this previously unheralded coaching staff, with the previously unheralded quarterback, sliced and diced a defense orchestrated by Belichick and Patricia that was on the stingiest run in football entering the championship game.
Since its shaky 2-2 start, New England tightened up on defense, allowing a league-low 14.4 points per game (including playoffs) since Week 5, and going 13-1 since. This should have been Foles’ waterloo. Instead, the 41-33 shredding of the defending champion Patriots confirmed the coaching and play-calling chops of Pederson, the game-planning chops of Reich, and the ascension of Foles into the pantheon of Super Bowl heroes dating back to Max McGee.
My question, then: How’d this happen? Speaking to Pederson before the game and Reich after the game, I knew the lengths to which the Eagles had gone in this game plan, in no small part because of their immense respect for Belichick and the Patriots. Every one of those of 194 plays on the Foles wristband had to had been vetted once, twice, three times, and again, to be sure of its chance to succeed against the defensive mastermind of this generation.
And not just with Pederson, but with Foles. Pederson always asks his quarterback the day before the game if there are plays in the game plan he doesn’t feel comfortable with, or would like not called in the game. Pederson was an NFL quarterback; he knows what it’s like to go to the line to execute a play you don’t believe. To Pederson’s delight, Foles is free with his vetoes.
“How many plays did Nick veto in the Super Bowl game plan?” I asked Pederson on Saturday.
“Zero,” Pederson said.
Pederson, Reich and Groh agreed to meet me in Pederson’s office Saturday morning to unravel the mystery of “Wristband 145.” With the Olympics muted on the TV next to Pederson’s desk (men’s snowboarding on NBC Sports Network), Reich took over.
“Why don't we run through this tape,” Reich said, taking the coach’s clicker in his hand and pointing to the big screen across from Pederson’s desk, “and Coach and Mike and anybody interject anytime they want. We just put together a tape of how this play happened. It’ll give you an idea of the process we use, and how the staff gets involved.”
A play from Week 2 came up. Eagles at Chiefs. Darren Sproles motioned from deep behind the left guard to his right, behind Carson Wentz. “So this is a unique motion in our offense that we don't use a ton. [Running backs coach] Duce Staley is the one who every week is on Coach and I, saying, 'We've got to get that motion in.’ Because it's a tough motion for defenses to handle,” Reich said.
“This is a motion you don’t see other teams do,” Pederson said. “That motion is a great way to get tells. The Patriots do it too, with different motions. Tom Brady wants to see [whether it’s] man or zone.”
The strength of setting the back in motion like this, the Eagles found out, was the quick tell to confirm whether the defense is playing man or zone. If a defender zeroed in on the back and sprinted toward him, the Eagles discovered this season the defense would always be man. If not, zone.
On this play, Wentz saw Kansas City linebacker Ramik Wilson run at Sproles and knew it would be man coverage; at the shotgun snap, Wentz loved the matchup of Sproles on Wilson and quickly zinged a horizontal throw to Sproles, who beat Wilson up the sideline. Gain of 16.
“You know how when you set multiple alarms on your phone to wake up?” Reich said. “We'll set multiple alarms for the quarterback and give him multiple indicators just to be sure. Maybe he’ll see it’s man because it's corners-over coverage, but then, like Coach said, if we use this and the linebacker responds like that, it’s, ‘Oh now I'm 100 percent sure it’s man.’”
Another play versus the Chargers. Zone coverage. Bunch formation to the right. Wentz ignored the back and found Torrey Smith out of the bunch up the right seam; Smith dropped what would have been a significant gainer.
Another play versus the Chiefs. The back, Wendell Smallwood, motioned behind Wentz to the left. But no bunch. Ertz used a legal pick from Brent Celek to blur coverage and get free on a cross route. Easy pass for Wentz. Gain of 11.
Reich paused the Ertz completion. “So now we showed you this motion three different times,” Reich said. “One time it went to Sproles. One time it went to Torrey Smith up the seam versus zone, now it’s to Ertz on a crossing route. We hit three different areas of the field with the same motion. So every time we are using the motion for a different reason. And there’s a different pass concept with it every time.”
“The Patriots break down this motion and don’t see you do the same thing,” I said.
“Exactly,” Reich said. “The sample size is too small to figure out what the next move is.”
“The other thing,” Pederson said, “and this is sort of a philosophy that I've brought here a little bit. I like to create plays or unique formations and motions like this in multiples of three. You have a drop back pass, you might have a screen, you might have a run, off of the same shift in motion.”
“He's always preaching that,” Reich said.
Pederson: “Because those are unique things. Teams are too smart on defense. Coordinators are too smart on defense. So they always see that same formation, same motion, and they can scheme it up. Well, what we've been able to do, sort of collaboratively here, is to take those same unique formations, shifts and motions and try to do it in multiples of three. This is the off-balance thing we try to create.”
The interesting thing to note here: Coaches can be smart and draw up bright plays. But if they don’t have a Wentz or Foles to pick the right option and deliver the ball accurately, and if they don’t have the speed back to win against linebackers and safeties, and if they don’t have the skilled receivers and tight ends to (sometimes) post up corners and safeties, none of this works. The Eagles have the coaching originality, and the players to execute these chess moves.
Research helps. Bruce Arians is a bunch devotee, with his deep receiving group. When preparing to face the Rams in December, Groh and Reich saw a bunch-right formation with Larry Fitzgerald benefiting from a legal pick out of the bunch on Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson. Fitzgerald was wide open on a post route. Carson Palmer hit him for a gain of 17. Maybe, the Eagles thought, this could be an Alshon Jeffery option out of the bunch. Groh picked it out because the formation fit the Eagles to a T.
Said Reich: “One of the things we asked Mike at the beginning of the year was always look at stacks and bunches. We always feel like stacks and bunches is important to understand how things play out. He is our stacks and bunches guru. We use PFF [Pro Football Focus] to give us a folder of stacks and bunches every week.”
“How many per week?” I asked Groh.
“It varies,” Groh said. “Because sometimes PFF has plays in there that aren't what we’d call true stacks or bunches, so I fly by those. But it can be 250 plays. I'll go through that and I cut it up, and I go, ‘Hey, Frank, here’s some things that are interesting.’ Sometimes it's 10 a week, sometimes it's 50. Frank filters that out and goes to Coach and gives him a couple, and they kind of move up the flagpole [as possible game plan additions].”
On every one of the plays Reich shows, traffic happens. Legal picks happen. Receivers can block defenders, or legally pick them, within a yard of the line, but any other contact beyond that has to be deemed incidental or the receiver can be flagged.
“We’re trying to create legal traffic,” said Reich.
“It's the hardest play to defend and officiate,” said Pederson.
“So,” Reich said, “we use this formation a fair amount, so it makes sense to us, it fits our personnel, because now we put Ertz on the backside and we can free-release him. If they put a whole bunch of guys over here where the cluster is, we got Ertz one-on-one on the backside. Doug likes it, and so now we basically put this play in that week. We get to the Rams game and do you remember what happened in the Rams game?
We went up and down the field and we scored a lot of points. We didn't run this play. We didn’t need it. So this one goes in the inventory. Doug and I will sometimes sit in here and bring up that cumulative list on his thing and it's on an excel spreadsheet so you can sort it by everything that has been called. It's just called the cumulative list. It's by section. Every section that Doug has on his call sheet, there is a cumulative list for that section. So, we can bring up that section and say, what haven't we run?”
Said Groh: “No idea gets left behind.”
“No good idea gets left behind,” said Reich.
Now on the screen: the divisional playoff game versus Atlanta. Big moment in the game. Eagles ball, third-and-seven, Atlanta 45, fourth quarter, Eagles up 12-10.
Here is the Super Bowl play, with one important difference: no motion.
Ertz wide left, singled by Falcons nickel back Brian Poole … a triangle-bunch to the right, close to the formation … a first-down conversion vital because the Eagles want at least a field goal to make the Falcons have to score a touchdown to win … and Pederson calls the play, for the first time this season—except without motion.
The Falcons dedicated four defenders to the bunch. Poole was alone on Ertz. Safety Ricardo Allen was the center-fielder, which is lucky: As Ertz cut and ran a quick inside slant, Poole slipped, and Ertz was wide open for an 11-yard gain. Allen saved a touchdown. The Eagles get their insurance field goal and won, 15-10.
“Isn't it interesting that on this play the corner slipped, the same way Devin McCourty slipped in the Super Bowl?” I asked Pederson.
“Certain things you remember,” Pederson said. “Eerily familiar. Is that the word—eerily?”
That’s the one, in retrospect.
A SCREENGRAB FROM NFL FILMS SHOWS THE PLAY UNFOLD, INCLUDING THE TWO PATRIOTS RUNNING INTO EACH OTHER, OPPOSITE THE BUNCH FORMATION. (THE MMQB)
Early in the season, Groh picked one bunch formation from a Panthers-Patriots game. On a third-and-nine play from the Carolina 43, the Panthers bunched three receivers to the left, and motioned Christian McCaffrey into the bunch—a smart personnel grouping by Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula. At the snap, Pats cornerback Stephon Gilmore, apparently confused, doubles a receiver doing a shallow cross, and leaves Kelvin Benjamin alone up the left seam. Cam Newton hit Benjamin. Gain of 43.
This institutional memory in Super Bowl week hit both Groh and Reich. “We're like, yeah, they could be having a problem here,” Reich said. “They could have a problem with a four-by-one cluster deal, so now, here's where all the elements come together for the game-winning play.”
Groh and Reich agreed that a bunch play would definitely be a smart inclusion—and all three men thought splitting out Ertz, as he had against Atlanta, would be smart, as well as the unique motion to the bunch side by the back. This would be a variation of the bunch they’d never run … and, of course, a variation the Patriots hadn’t seen. Groh mined the cluster-route concept, Reich added the running-back motion, Reich and Groh liked splitting out Ertz, Groh brought it to Pederson, and Pederson liked it all.
On Tuesday night, inside the Radisson Blu, the play was added to the game plan, and would be number 145 on Pederson’s Sunday play sheet and Foles’ wristband, the formation first, and the play second:
Gun trey left, open buster star motion … 383 X follow Y slant.
“This is exactly why we keep a databank of plays,” Pederson said. “We took the Kansas City motion with Sproles, we took the Arizona bunch play against the Rams, and then we came back against the Falcons and moved Ertz out and left the back in the backfield, and then we get to this game, we added the motion, and we just put it all together for this specific defense. This play is a result of what we did all season, and what the coaches researched, taking different things from different plays.”
One more pre-game point: “We're sitting here talking about this during the week,” said Reich, “and we say, if we shift [Corey Clement] out, and if they cover him in man coverage, and if we get Alshon [Jeffery], and Alshon comes out of the bunch like he’s supposed to, the guy who is covering that motion back might actually run into Alshon's man.”
A few years ago, doing a Bill Belichick profile for Sports Illustrated, I saw Belichick’s football library. At the time, the library was in Belichick’s Massachusetts home; now it’s housed in the library at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, where Belichick grew up. One of the books, Sun Tsu’s “The Art of War,” seemed a curious inclusion. But Belichick was big on military metaphors. In this book, Sun Tsu wrote, “Every battle is won or lost before it’s ever fought.”
Those are the words I thought of watching Reich run the decisive play back and forth Saturday morning.
Said Groh: “Just like in basketball, right? When you isolate and put everybody on one side of the court and you send Kobe over to go do what he does. Same principle. We knew that they were going to overplay the bunch.”
Pederson, on why he picked this play: “I thought right away, down and distance, situation in the game, boom, that's the one. I know Ertz is matched up one on one, I know we got that motion. Reppin' it, and reppin’ it and reppin’ it, and knowing where it was at. And then you just pull the trigger in that situation and let our guys go execute.”
Groh to Reich. Reich and Pederson massaging the play. Play to the play sheet. Pederson to Foles. Foles to Ertz. How it played out:
New England 33, Philadelphia 32, 2:25 left, fourth quarter. Third-and-seven, Eagles’ 12. Foles in shotgun. Ertz up top, alone, on Devin McCourty, playing three yards off. Clement behind Foles, just to his left. Nelson Agholor at the top of a bunch to the right, tight end Trey Burton (Reich: “one of our best guys to create legal traffic”) just behind Agholor to the left, and Jeffery just behind Agholor to the right.
Pre-snap, Clement sprinted behind Foles, and the lone center-fielding safety for New England, Duron Harmon, followed. At the snap, four Patriots rushed, and linebacker Kyle Van Noy stayed in sort of no man’s land at the 12, apparently to spy Foles. Five Patriots minded the four Philly receivers—including an open Clement—to the right.
Just as Ertz made his incut in front of McCourty, Harmon and Gilmore smashed into each other at the four-yard line.
Foles stared at Ertz from the start. He got single coverage.
McCourty slipped. Ertz had a clear half-step on him, running right across the formation.
Foles cocked to throw and, in what no one noticed, came down to about three-quarters delivery, seemingly in mid-motion, to evade the raised arms of Van Noy. “Look at this,” Reich said, running the tape back and forth, seeing Van Noy’s arms go up for the block. “Nick didn't make that decision when he was about to throw, he's making that as his arm is right here [with the ball nearly out of his hand], adjusting it at the last split second, to win the Super Bowl.”
The ball hit Ertz in stride. Ertz took one step, two, and got hit in the legs by McCourty and dove for the end zone. Touchdown. The play survived a replay review focusing on the Ertz bobble; he was a runner, ref Gene Steratore ruled, and thus only had to break the plane of the goal line with possession for the play to be a touchdown.
“Cover zero,” Reich said, watching it a few more times. “No one to save the day.”
Pause.
“How many times have you practiced this play, this way?” I wondered.
“Twice,” Reich said.
As for the Patriots’ part in this: Hard to blame McCourty, slip or not. He had to be sure he didn’t overplay the slant, because if McCourty overplayed the slant or incut, Ertz could have run a fade or corner and would have been open, with no help. During the game, as our Andy Benoit discovered after tape study, Patriots front-seven players had dropped into man coverage 10 times; clearly this play should have been the 11th. Rarely on plays like this do the Patriots leave a single defender without help. And with Patricia’s fateful words—“We’re gonna have to double 86 here”—someone blew the coverage or blew communication before the play.
Give credit to the Eagles, though. Even if the Patriots had dropped an extra front-seven player into coverage, Pederson thought it likely that Foles would have chosen Clement, with the Gilmore-Harmon collision, and very likely Clement would have made the seven yards if not the touchdown.
The three men rose, heading for their week off. (Until Reich took the Colts’ head-coaching job Sunday.) Before they parted, Pederson and Reich, without guile, spoke about something every coach on every level of every sport should hear.
“For me,” Pederson said, “this story is simple. I hired these coaches for a reason. I hired Frank as my OC for a reason. This is a collaborative effort. It has never been about one guy, one coach, one player. This is a daunting task for one guy. It's way too much. I trust these guys to study the tape like they do, and Frank gives out the assignments during the week. Guys know their lanes, they stay in their lanes. If a play fits our personality, offensively, we will try to get it in the game plan somewhere. It’s a credit to our coaches, all of them, that they found the little gems all season.”
“When someone trusts you, that's the greatest motivator there is,” said Reich. “When you have a head coach who really makes it collaborative, then it motivates guys to work harder, to look longer and look at every third down that the Patriots ran this year.
If it is just coach and I doing that whole thing, maybe that play makes it in, maybe it doesn't. I don't know. Maybe we would have saw it, maybe we wouldn't have. We'll never know. One of the MO’s of our team the whole year was being unselfish. This was us. I firmly believe that's why we won the Super Bowl, because it was about us as a team. That starts from the top.”
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WELL, I GUESS IT WAS A GOOD WEEK TO WRITE ABOUT FRANK REICH
Sunday, Feb. 4, 3 p.m.: Frank Reich in the locker room in Minneapolis, preparing for his offensive-coordinator duties with the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52.
Sunday, Feb. 11, 3 p.m.: Frank Reich in a descending airplane, preparing to land in Indianapolis and sign his five-year contract as the next coach of the Colts.
When Reich was preparing for a third season as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator, the right-hand man and trusted adviser to Doug Pederson, he figured he’d been bypassed, again, for a chance at his post-quarterbacking life goal: becoming an NFL head coach. But then the Josh McDaniels jilting story happened, and the Colts had to star their coach search again. Four days into it, on Sunday, GM Chris Ballard settled on Reich. I’m told owner Jim Irsay happily approved. Reich, to be sure, won’t bring any drama with him.
In fact, Reich’s career in many ways rivals the only Indianapolis Hall of Fame coach, Tony Dungy. Non-famous as players—Dungy for the Steelers, mostly; Reich for the Bills, mostly—each is quiet, religious, an expert at his side of the ball. Dungy and the Tampa-2 defense propelled the Bucs to respectability and helped the Colts win a Super Bowl. Reich played in the Buffalo K-gun offense and has been an advocate of aggressively pushing the ball down the field. Finally, this year under Doug Pederson, the Colts noticed.
The Colts, post-McDaniels, needed a stable partner for Andrew Luck who would make him better. They needed an ego-less partner for Ballard, and they needed a leader for a team that’s going to change a lot over the next two or three years. There could be lean times. Reich is an eternal optimist, a small offensive planner, and a steady guy who’s not going to spooked by a four-game losing streak. Which, Ballard knows, there could be in the next couple of years in a rising AFC South. This is a good choice.
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QUOTES OF THE WEEK
“THIS OFFSEASON, SOME CLOWN NAMED MIKE LOMBARDI TOLD HIM HE WAS THE LEAST QUALIFIED COACH IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!”
—Eagles center Jason Kelce, stealing the show at the Eagles’ victory parade, defending head coach Doug Pederson by shouting at the top of his lungs at the critics who belittled the Eagles throughout the 2017 season.
Lombardi, a long-time NFL scout who now works for The Ringer, actually said this on Sept. 3: “Everybody knows Pederson isn’t a head coach. He might be less-qualified to coach a team than anyone I’ve seen in my 30-plus years in the NFL.”
“If he’s not the [heir], then that would have been the dumbest move in the history of sports.”
—Former Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, on Sirius XM NFL Radio, on the current coordinator, Josh McDaniels.
“Have the day of your life, all right?”
—Super Bowl ref Gene Steratore to Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles, before the Super Bowl, on an NFL Films wiring. Prescient, Gene.
Said the same kind of thing to Tom Brady, too. And both went out and did it.
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THINGS I THINK I THINK
1. I think I’ve got five thoughts about the Niners making Jimmy Garoppolo the highest-paid player in NFL history:
a. It’s not insane. All of you who kill Washington for passing on the chance to get Kirk Cousins signed after his first year of good play, remember this: If you want to sign a quarterback long-term, a quarterback who has shown some flashes of greatness but not a lot, you’re going to have to overpay to get a long deal done. Why would Garoppolo sign for somewhere in the $22-million or so range when he could just play for the franchise tag now and, with a great 2018, make the Niners pay $33 million next year?
b. He’s worth it. He’ll prove it. Every time he’s taken the field, in all seven starts, Garoppolo has shown over and over again that he has the stuff to be a premier player. Eight or 10 series is one thing. Ninety series, or however many he’s played, is a pretty good indicator of future success.
c. Smart move by agent Don Yee getting this done. The reason Yee does well for his clients and doesn’t care what the outside world says can be illustrated with the contract of Tom Brady and Garoppolo. Brady, relatively speaking, is grossly underpaid at what he’s due to make for the next two years—$15 million per. But Brady doesn’t care. He specifically has not wanted to take the last dollar, preferring the Patriots spend the money elsewhere on other players.
Yee has done what his client wanted, and I’m sure it’s at the cost of losing some prospective clients who think Yee doesn’t maximize value for Brady. In the Jimmy G case, Yee got an inexperienced quarterback the biggest contract in the 98-year history of the NFL. Now, that will be eclipsed 10 or 15 minutes from now, but still, Yee played this one right too—the same way he has played Brady right over the years.
d. Finally, smart move by the Niners. They had to know they’d be bashed by some for paying so much to a guy with seven starts. But how smart does San Francisco EVP of football operations/cap guy Paraag Marathe look in making this contract a front-loaded deal in the year the club has $100 million in cap room? Making the first year of the deal $37 million in cap costs (per Schefter) means that over the next four years, the average cap hit for the Niners will be $22.6 million.
And barring a crumbling of the cap number in future years, that means the Niners after this season (when they can most afford it) will never devote more than 12 percent of their salary cap to the starting quarterback between 2019 and 2022. Considering that the typical franchise quarterback eats up closer to 15 percent of the cap, it’s a forward-looking move by Marathe.
e. You don’t always have to have a winner and a loser in contracts. But I think both sides won big … Garoppolo because he’s getting paid like a great player when he hasn’t proven sustained greatness yet, and the team because the contract won’t cripple it, no matter how well Garoppolo plays. The only way the Niners lose is if Garoppolo stinks or is somewhere in the 20 to 25 range among starting quarterbacks. Not likely.
2. I think there was a reason so many teams thought Reuben Foster was fool’s good in the 2017 draft—and why the Niners, who loved the Alabama linebacker so much they’d have taken him third overall if all their other plans failed, are lucky they also were able to land Solomon Thomas at the top of the draft. As it was, they took Foster number 31, and celebrated to have gotten him there. Foster reportedly was arrested in a domestic violence case Sunday in California.
That follows his diluted sample for marijuana at the combine last year, a pair of concerning shoulder injuries—one before the draft, and one after—and now, in addition to the domestic violence case, he reportedly was charged with possession of an assault rifle. If these charges prove true, Foster will be in danger of 49ers discipline as well as the NFL’s. The Niners have drawn a hard line on domestic violence since the Ray McDonald issues three years ago. Foster’s a great player, but it might be somewhere else now if he’s run afoul of the law in California.
3. I think the football world lost a great man Friday with the death of former college coach and Dallas Cowboys scout Jim Garrett, the father of Jason Garrett. What an intelligent man. Everything about him involved education. He preached it, on all subjects, not just football.
An invaluable resource to me and so many others over the last couple of decades, Garrett had Jerry Jones’ ear as one of his most trusted advisers. I’ll never forgot covering the Cowboys’ 2002 draft, when Jones allowed me to sit in on draft meetings as the Cowboys finalized their draft board. I was in the room for two days, sitting next to Garrett.
Every player who came up, Garrett knew so many things from memory. Quentin Jammer (a Dallas favorite)—I swear Garrett knew his middle-school tackle stats. It was uncanny. Jones loved picking his brain. The other thing about Garrett: He never wasted anyone’s time. When it was his time to give an opinion, it was almost like he was a network color analyst.
Brevity was crucial. But information was king, and the room fell silent when he spoke. I could even overlook how devoted he was to the Yankees. Quite literally, unless he was on the road scouting, he did not miss an inning of a Yankee telecast. What a loss for football. Scores of people, inside and outside the Cowboys and his family, will miss him dearly.
4. I think it would be smart to change the rules about coach-hiring with men still in the playoffs. But here’s my issue: In the McDaniels case, don’t you think he would be having the same second thoughts after the Super Bowl had he been signed by the Colts or not?
If he’s not all in, and it’s clear he wasn’t, it’s a ripped BandAid now but it’s better to have a guy who truly wants to be there. This is in no way to clear McDaniels, who deserves major scorn for pulling out of a verbal deal. It’s simply to say allowing coaches to sign while their team is still playing would not have stopped McDaniels from second-guessing his decision.
5. I think, for those who asked, I forget to include my ballot last week in this column from the Pro Football Hall of Fame voting. Our ballots are not made public, but we can do with them what we wish after the meeting. The way the voting works: There are 15 modern-era finalists and a combination of three finalists in the Contributor and Senior categories.
We discuss the Contributor (Bobby Beathard) and Senior (Robert Brazile, Jerry Kramer) candidates first, then vote yes or no on them. Each must get 80 percent yes votes to make it. Then, we discuss the 15 modern-era finalists. We vote for our top 10, and then the top 10 vote-getters are told to us, and then we vote for our top five among the final 10. Once the five leading vote-getters determined, the selection committee (47 voters were at the Feb. 3 meeting in Bloomington, Minn.), votes yes or no on those five finalists. A rundown of how I voted:
• Cut to five: Yes on Boselli, Dawkins, Lewis, Moss, Owens. Thought long and hard about eliminating Urlacher there, and it came down to my enthusiasm for Boselli’s case.
• Modern-era final votes: Yes on Dawkins, Lewis, Moss, Owens, Urlacher.
6. I think I’ve got to hand it to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. He kept saying in the 48 hours before Josh McDaniels dropped out of the Indy job that there were rumblings McDaniels wouldn’t take the job. Nine days before the Super Bowl, Albert Breer called me and said he heard rumblings that McDaniels was waffling on taking the job. I checked it out. I thought it was wrong. I thought about writing something on the order of There are stories out there that McDaniels might jilt the Colts, but in the end I decided not to, because then I’m giving what might be spurious rumors legs.
During Super Bowl week, I kept my ears open, and kept hearing McDaniels was solid in Indianapolis. The Patriots thought he was gone. They still thought he was gone walking out of the stadium after the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. And, as I wrote on Tuesday night, McDaniels drove to Gillette Stadium that morning to clean out his office and prepare for his next life in central Indiana. If Kraft and Belichick didn’t recruit him hard on Tuesday, there’s a very good chance he’d be Colts coach Josh McDaniels today. But he’s not. To the victor goes the spoils, and Florio was the media victor in this story.
7. I think, in the end, this was about McDaniels feeling high regard and respect from Belichick and Robert Kraft for the first time, and about feeling he’d rather cast his lot with Robert Kraft over Jim Irsay, and about being just a bit unsure about the long-term health of Andrew Luck.
8. I think, by the way, I heard something very interesting about Luck on Wednesday: McDaniels walking away from the Colts has given Luck a shot of motivational adrenaline that he didn’t have before Tuesday. Not that it’s going to make him work extra hard in rehab from his shoulder injury. But that every time the Colts play the Patriots (starting in 2018, assuming Luck is healthy enough to play), it’s going to be a mega-game for Luck. This basically is along the lines of, So you decided we weren’t good enough for you? Okay. We’ll see what happens when we meet again.
9. I think I didn’t spend much time in the wake of the Super Bowl thinking about the officiating, with everything else that happened. So I asked a guy I respect a lot, Ben Austro, editor-in-chief of the officiating site Football Zebras, to review the game within a game by Gene Steratore and his crew. His analysis:
“I thought Gene Steratore worked a fantastic game, and his crew of Super Bowl veterans showed exactly why they were selected. It wasn't a perfect outing—such a game, it can be argued, may never occur—but the officials allowed the players to play through and dictate the game. With the season replete with officiating and replay controversies, this game for the third team was a good note to end on.
There was really more drama than there should have been with the replay reviews on two touchdowns by the Eagles. The go-ahead touchdown by Zach Ertz is the textbook example of how a receiver transitions to a runner to finish the catch process, and is consistent with the legacy language of the rules to ‘perform an act common to the game.’
“I understand the need to have a stop-down review for a Super Bowl touchdown, but there seemed to be much more deliberation between Steratore and Al Riveron, who was in the replay decision seat. There was a little more equivocation on the touchdown catch by Corey Clement earlier in the third quarter, and I think if we set aside the replay decisions of the 2017 regular season, this call undeniably stands.
The ball movement in Clement's hands is certainly cause for a closer look, but there is nothing that shows a conclusive loss of control. Is this catch reversed in the regular season? There are certainly several examples of similar calls where ball control was ruled from the regular season — many fans will point to those that coincidentally benefited the Patriots.
I have a sense that Riveron and his replay deputy Russell Yurk recalibrated the evidence standards at the start of the playoffs. They could not do that in the middle of the regular season, but there was an opportunity to do so when everybody was reset to a 0-0 record.
“The other point of controversy was the formation on the ‘Philly Special,’ the touchdown pass to quarterback Nick Foles. Foles shifted from a shotgun formation to a pseudo-H-back position and sets for a full second. Whenever the offense presents a shift, the formation must be legal before and after the shift. The point of contention was whether wideout Alshon Jeffery was too far off the line, as the offense must have a minimum of seven players on the line …
In this case, Jeffrey apparently got the thumbs up from veteran line judge Byron Boston, the margin of noncompliance was less than a yard, the reference point (the snapper's belt) is about 20 yards away from Jeffrey, and he was matched up by a Patriots defender. This all adds up that there was no deceptive practice and no advantage leveraged by the offense, therefore the best call is to hold the flag.”
My wife's aunt died last week, after a 20 year battle with cancer. She always had a smile on her face and she will be missed. Her daughter Courtney went to UNC. She has moved around the country several times and has several friends that were involved with UNC sports. She gets free tickets to Orioles games and has been to many NFL games. She even dated an NFL player for a few years. Apparently Courtney Brown settled in the Raleigh area and she is close friends with he and his family.
We were at the memorial service for Aunt Pam and the dinner that follows and my wife pointed out that the enormous guy sitting next to her cousin was Courtney something or other from Penn State. I looked and immediately figured it was Courtney Brown, the first overall pick in the 2000 NFL draft and star defensive end for Penn State. I had no idea they were close enough with her cousin to get up at 2:00 AM and come to her mothers funeral but there they were.
I introduced myself and we talked a good bit. It was very interesting to hear his take on the NFL and what it does to players. He played for 8 years and has had many surgical procedures that have extended into his retirement. I wont disclose specifics but will say aside from the usual knee and shoulder stuff he has some pretty severe injuries resulting from the NFL. Fortunately he has good doctors that have been able to help him but it is an ongoing process to this point. The injury was more of an over time type of thing, instead of a sudden, carted off the field type.
He also told me that the speed of the game at the NFL level was so intense that it took him about 3 years for it to slow down for him. By then his body was starting to break down. He now does missionary work abroad and is a great guy. His son does not play football. I wonder why? I mentioned how bad the impact of those crushing hits you see players absorb must be for the body. He told me there was a drill at Penn State where players would line up and run straight into two other players at full speed. It was to develop the ability to hit with maximum impact. He also said it is very difficult to take on two Olinemen at a time and do it at practice and in games for all of those years. He says he is amazed at any player that can have a healthy career that lasts over 10 years. He says they are truly elite athletes and have some great genetics to take that abuse for so long. Many of his old teammates struggle to walk or get out of bed each day. Most have back problems or neck problems.
My father in law is a big guy by normal standards. He is around 280 lb and 6'-1". He has had some back, nerve and hip problems that makes it very difficult for him to get around. He stood up at the table and the folding chair caught his belt and he went down. Courtney rushed right over and grabbed him behind the shoulders and lifted him like I lift my 11 year old son. Bob said his feet even came off the ground at first. That is some impressive strength. Courtney was huge. I had no idea he was that big. My wife said I looked like a child standing next to him. I wont soon forget that experience. I now have met too former NFL players and both are regretting what it has cost them. The other was an offensive lineman who played for Tampa Bay and he is so bow legged from knee injuries that he can hardly walk.
(I love Tavon as a player and a person, but the fact of the matter is that he simply costs too much. I know that I didn't mention Barron, but he'll be dealt with later.)
Re-sign:
Aaron Donald - six years, fifteen million per year.
Lamarcus Joyner - five years, eight million per year.
Nickell Robey-Coleman - five years, five million per year.
Jake McQuaide - two years - two million per year.
Cody Davis - one year - one million.
Cornelius Lucas - one year, veteran minimum.
Troy Hill - ERFA
Malcolm Brown - ERFA
Matt Longacre - RFA
(This assumes that we can sign Joyner, NRC, and Donald, but let Tru and Watkins go. McQuaide is obvious, Lucas provides cheap depth, Davis is easier to re-sign than replace, and the rest are under team control.)
Free Agent Signings
Weston Richburg, five years, 7.5 million per year.
Richard Sherman, three years, 8 million per year.
Dontari Poe, two years. 5 million per year.
Navorro Bowman, two years, 5 million per year.
(Richard Sherman to the Rams? It could be likely that he is a cap casualty. Seattle's loss is our gain, and we gain a solid press-man cornerback. Richburg remains my free agent priority. Poe - someone whom I pounded the table for in the 2012 draft before we took Brockers - is a dominant nose tackle who would wreak havoc in our system. Also, I've jumped on the Navorro Bowman bandwagon!)
Trade:
Robert Quinn to the New York Jets for their 2018 second round pick.
(This trade was jrry's idea, so I'm going to borrow it for a moment (only reason it's not linked to him is because it literally restarted this mock, like, a dozen times before now.) Anyway, the Jets need everything. Quinn is talented, but not a fit in our 3-4. We do this deal.)
Mark Barron to the Pittsburgh Steelers for their 2018 third round pick.
(Ryan Shazier may never be the same after his tragic spinal injury. Mark Barron fills a need for the Steelers, and they'll likely fall in love with his skillset.)
Rams 1st round pick to the Cleveland Browns for two second round picks (Texans and Eagles).
(Vea and Payne are gone by the time we pick, so we trade down for Cleveland's other two second round picks, while they go select a player they really like (I'm assuming a wide receiver like Sutton.)
Ethan Westbrooks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 2018 fourth round pick.
(Westbrooks no longer has a spot in our system due to Poe filling in at nose tackle. Tampa has a desperate need for defensive line help, particularly at end. Enter Westbrooks.)
(Settling on Settle? Maybe. But I like the kid. Not as much as Vea or Payne, but he's a great prospect. Very athletic for his size. Built like a tank. Good pass-rusher, better run-stuffer. He'll back up Poe until he's ready to take the reins.)
2nd (Jets) - Sony Michel, RB, Georgia.
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I thought that our running game mostly struggled when Gurley went out. Here the rich get richer. Michel is a breakaway threat any time he touches the ball. He'll give Gurley a breather, and he'll also get reps as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Maybe he even takes Tavon's role?)
2nd (Eagles) - Hercules Mata'afa, OLB, Washington State.
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(Mata'afa is a kid I really like the more I watch him. He could definitely go higher than this, but right now, he's a second round pick, in my mind. Like his namesake, he's ridiculously strong. He played defensive tackle at Washington State, and he was rarely overpowered. He'll be an excellent fit as the SAM starter.)
3rd - Shaquem Griffin, ILB/OLB, UCF.
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(Everyone here knows his story. I really want him for his ability on the field. He has instincts, breath-taking speed, and the ability to make splash plays as well as everything else. I like him to back up Bowman and later take his place.)
3rd (Steelers) - Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan.
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(Very athletic left tackle type. There are things that turn a team off. Is he a little soft? Yeah. Does he have problems with technique. Yeah. But does he have the ability to correct them? I say yes. I also say that he eventually takes over for Whitworth after learning from the All-Pro how to learn in the NFL.)
4th (Buccaneers) - Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame.
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(Aside from having an awesome name, St. Brown is a gifted wide receiver. Tall, runs like a gazelle, deep threat, redzone threat. The reason he's going later is because he had no production while he was at Notre Dame. I feel that he'll be a better pro than college player.)
4th - Holton Hill, CB, Texas.
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(Hill is a huge cornerback at 6'3" who immediately reminds me of Tru. He sticks on a receiver like glue. Scouts say that he's immature and has technical errors that need to be corrected. I like the tape on him against James Washington of Oklahoma State.)
5th - J.C. Jackson, CB, Maryland.
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(Jackson is an athletic cover corner who has size, ball skills, and the ability to effectively erase a wide receiver. Why is he here? Because he has serious off-the-field issues, including an arrest for armed robbery while he played for Florida. He transferred to Maryland, and has been clean ever since, but it could cost him in the draft. Still, he'll join a strong locker room and a strong coaching staff, so he could be worth rolling the dice on.)
6th (Lions) - Folorunso Fatukasi, DE, Connecticut.
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(Fatukasi is extremely raw, but just as talented. He's the type of player you try to stash on your roster somehow and let him learn the ropes behind a veteran coaching staff. He could very well go earlier than this, though.)
6th (Bills) - Olasunkamni Adeniyi, OLB, Toledo.
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(Adeniyi is a smaller end who fits in a 3-4. He put up monster stats for Toledo, notching twenty tackles for a loss, twelve sacks, and three forced fumbles. He may not be the athletic type, but he could be a solid backup for years.)
6th - Nic Shimonek, QB, Texas Tech.
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(Here's a backup quarterback to roll the dice on. Shimonek really stood out at the East/West Shrine game, and he's the type of quarterback who could make a living as a backup. He can make all the throws and throws well on the run. His problem is accuracy. But as a backup, you can't go wrong with him.)
QB - Jared Goff, Sean Mannion, Nic Shimonek.
RB, Todd Gurley, Sony Michel, Malcolm Brown, Sam Rogers.
TE - Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Temarrick Hemingway.
WR - Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp, Mike Thomas, Pharoh Cooper, Equanimeous St. Brown.
OL - Andrew Whitworth, Rodger Saffold, Weston Richburg, Jamon Brown, Rob Havenstein, Chukwuma Okorafor, Austin Blythe, Jake Eldrenkamp, Cornelius Lucas.)
DL - Aaron Donald, Dontari Poe, Michael Brockers, Tanzel Smart, Tim Settle, Folorunso Fatukasi, Morgan Fox.
LB - Samson Ebukam, Alec Ogletree, Navorro Bowman, Hercules Mata'afa, Shaquem Griffin, Cory Littleton, Matt Longacre, Olasunkamni Adeniyi, Ejuan Price.
DB - Richard Sherman, Kayvon Webster, Lamarcus Joyner, John Johnson III, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Holton Hill, J.C. Jackson, Cody Davis, Troy Hill/Kevin Peterson/Marqui Christian/Blake Countess.
K - Greg Zuerlein
P - Johnny Hekker
LS - Jake McQuaide.
It's around that time of year when everyone speculates which player their team should re-sign. Well, here's an interesting one, Jared Goff. No, it's not time to pay him but it's never too early to take a look at the future and Goff is going to cost a lot for the Rams to keep down the road.
Spotrac recently put out a market value projection for Jared Goff and here is what we got from it:
Base Calculated Value: 5 years, $125,836,310 AVG. Annually ($25,167,262)
This value is based on the simple fact of taking the contracts of QB's that happened at Goff's age of contract extension. Here is what we have:
Derek Carr: 5 years, $125,000,000 AVG. Annually ($25,000,000) - Age 26
Andrew Luck: 5 years, $122,970,000 AVG. Annually ($24,594,000) - Age 26
Matthew Stafford: 5 years, $135,000,000 AVG. Annually ($27,000,000) - Age 29
Joe Flacco: 3 years, $66,400,000 AVG. Annually (22,133,333) - Age 31
Calculated Market Value: 5 years, $106,131,242 AVG. Annually ($21,226,248)
This value is based on Goff statistically compared to the QB's mentioned above prior to signing.
Derek Carr: 96.86% of Games Played, 255.48 Passing YDs per Game, 1.94 Passing TDs per Game, 0.61 INTs per Game, 62.38 COMP%, 93.93 RTG, AVG. RTG: 86.85
Andrew Luck: 100% of Games Played, 297.56 Passing YDs per Game, 2.5 Passing TDs per Game, 1 INT per Game, 61.69 COMP%, 96.52 RTG, AVG. RTG: 86.7
Matthew Stafford: 100% of Games Played, 268.41 Passing YDs per Game, 1.75 Passing TDs per Game, 0.72 INTs per Game, 66.27 COMP%, 95.14 RTG, AVG. RTG: 81.15
Joe Flacco: 81.25% of Games Played, 260.65 Passing YDs per Game, 1.58 Passing TDs per game, 0.92 INTs per game, 63.19 COMP%, 86.98 RTG, AVG. RTG: 77.75
Jared Goff: 68.75% of Games Played, 222.41 Passing YDs per Game, 1.5 Passing TDs per game, 0.664 INTs per game, 58.34 COMP%, 82.07 RTG, AVG. RTG: 59.75
So, first of all, this is skewed a little bit. Goff only played in seven games his rookie year and he struggled mightily in them. Even after the year he just had it still wasn't enough to push his rating among the top guys. Goff shouldn't worry though, this is a QB that improved heavily in his second year and still has two more years to play and boost his stock. You may think $21M is a lot annually but in the thick of things right now? It's not. It's going to be way more if Goff continues the pace he is on after the 2017 season. You saw a QB that only started seven games at the age of 26 receive the richest contract in NFL history. If Goff can continue to improve and lead his team to the playoffs consistently and potentially win a Super Bowl he is going to be expensive and likely the highest paid player in NFL history when it's his turn. Of course, there is also Carson Wentz but Goff will be two years younger to add even more to his value. Luckily for the Rams, they will have $150,000,000 million of cap space to work with, not really, but right now that's what they have since only Alec Ogletree, Robert Woods and Johnny Hekker are signed through 2021. Tavon Austin is, but we already know his fate.
I'm starting to churn a bunch of these out as I get to see more and more players. I'm also starting to get excited for the Combine. Draft season is officially here!
Cut
WR Tavon Austin
ILB Mark Barron
I don't see anyone trading us anything for Austin. Barron played well for us, but we can find a better fit for our scheme at a cheaper price.
Re-Sign/Extend
DT Aaron Donald - 6 years $120 million
WR Sammy Watkins - 3 years $30 million
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman - 5 years $25 million
S LaMarcus Joyner - 5 years $42.5 million
S Cody Davis - 3 years $4.5 million
C John Sullivan - 1 year $1.5 million
DT Tyrunn Walker - NFL minimum
OLB Connor Barwin - 1 year $1.5 million
CB Troy Hill - ERFA
HB Malcolm Brown - ERFA
OLB Matt Longacre - RFA
LS Jake McQuaide - 3 years $4.5 million
Trumaine asks for too much and ends up walking. We bring Sammy back on a 3 year $30 million deal. It's a win-win for Sammy and us. Other than that, it's pretty standard.
Free Agency
CB Aqib Talib - 2 years $18 million
ILB Navorro Bowman - 1 year $4 million
OLB Aaron Lynch - 1 years $1.5 million
NT Beau Allen - 3 years $6 million
Talib was a star in Wade's defense before and should be more affordable than Tru due to his age. He's still one of the NFL's best press CBs. Yes, he's a bit of a knucklehead, but he's also a hell of a player. I can deal with his shenanigans if he's locking down #1 WRs for us.
Bowman is brought in to play the thumper role next to Ogletree. We give him an affordable, short deal to bring leadership and run-stuffing ability. I think he'd be a good guy to have in the locker-room. I also think he can really be a positive influence for Ogletree and our other young LBs. Plus, he doesn't have to go far from Oakland/SF.
Lynch is us taking a chance on a low risk/high reward player. We give basically nothing in guarantees. He has some character issues, but he also is an incredibly talented player who can really get after the QB. He no longer fits SF's scheme, and Wade is one of the best in the game at building relationships with his players.
We bring in Beau Allen to give us some beef in the middle. He's been a strong run-stopping presence in the middle for Philly the past few years, but he doesn't bring much pass rush potential with him. That ought to make him fairly cheap. He'll give Wade more of a true NT.
Analysis: We spend our first round pick on CB Mike Hughes from UCF. At 5'11" 192, Hughes is a tad undersized, but he doesn't play small. Hughes is an outstanding fit here because the strongest part of his game is press-man coverage. He still is growing as an off-man and zone CB when it comes to pattern and route recognition as he only has one year of starting experience at the FBS level (JUCO transfer). However, in press-man coverage, he shows outstanding feet and hip flexibility. He's aggressive with his upper body using a jarring punch, but he's patient in the lower body. He really beats up WRs off the line and doesn't make it easy for them to get free releases. And when it comes time to turn and run, he has the deep speed to stay in their hip pocket along with the quickness to break off the route. He also got better and better as the year went on using his the sideline as an extra defender. I think he'll be a very valuable player in our scheme. He also has the athleticism to slide inside if we want Kayvon playing outside CB when we go into our subpackages.
Our second pick (in the third round) is spent on Shaquem Griffin. Many people have him rated as a Day 3 pick, and some even have him rated as a 7th round pick or UDFA. Personally, I think this is similar to the disrespect Aaron Donald was given throughout his senior season before he blew up at the Senior Bowl. Donald's size scared teams. Griffin's missing hand also likely scares teams. However, after the Senior Bowl and Combine, it was clear that Donald's size issues were overblown. I expect the same to be true with Griffin after the Combine. He already had a great Senior Bowl week and won Practice Player of the Week. I expect him to dominate at the Combine by posting great jump and agility numbers and running a 40 in the 4.45 to 4.55 range. Griffin checks in at 6'0" 222 with surprising power and elite burst/speed. Griffin closes like few can at the LB position. He's been a highly-effective pass rusher because of his ability diverse set of rush moves and evolved pass rush plan along with his elite speed and quickness off the edge. He doesn't have the size to hold up as an edge, but he should be an effective blitzer. Griffin has had plenty of snaps in coverage and shows the athleticism to handle M2M coverage responsibilities in the NFL. In the running game, he's a sideline-to-sideline LB who will sift through traffic to make TFLs. He can also close from the backside due to his incredible speed. Despite his small stature, Griffin has shown the ability to work off of and through blockers. Griffin's missing hand can limit him at times. It can make it harder for him to disengage from blocks and can cause him to miss tackles. However, Griffin's unique blend of elite speed for his position along with top-notch instincts means that the tackles he generally misses due to his hand are tackles that few other LBs would have been in a position to make. Griffin is a film room junkie who went as far as to put his mattress in there during camp. It shows in his play through his tremendous instincts, tendency to be in the right place at the right time, and his evolved pass rush plan. Simply put, if Griffin had two hands, I think he'd be considered one of the top players in the Draft. His game reminds me of Lavonte David and Deion Jones.
Desmond Harrison is a long and tremendously-athletic OT. He's definitely a project as he competed against a low level of competition at West Georgia. He was one of the top HS players in the nation but was kicked out of Texas for disciplinary issues. He had to sit out the Senior Bowl due to illness and only checked in at 279 pounds. However, he measured in at 6'6" with nearly 35 inch arms and 10.5 inch hands. On the field, Harrison is an easy mover and bender with a mean streak. He's a raw player who will need time to put on weight in the NFL, but he has the athletic gifts of a top LT. Kromer and Whitworth will have time to work with this kid and get him ready to play on Sundays.
P.J. Hall is an incredibly productive DL who played at Sam Houston State. At 6'0" 310, he is an interesting fit at either NT or DE in our scheme. He'll need some time to develop and get used to the NFL game, but he's a powerful kid who wins with natural leverage and quality hand usage. He's been compared to Grady Jarrett. He finished his career at SHSU with 284 tackles (61 per year), 86.5 TFLs (22 TFLs per year), 42 sacks (10.5 sacks per year), 9 FFs, 4 Ints, and 14 blocked kicks.
Tyler Conklin is a solid athlete who displays good blocking ability. He has a lot of similarities to Derek Carrier. Coming off a Jones fracture, there are some big questions about his foot that he'll need to clear up at the Combine. Scott Quessenberry is a guy whom I've liked for years. He has the versatility to play anywhere on the interior, good size at 6'5" 315, and a lot of experience as a starter. Athletically, he's pretty average all around, but he's a smart player with good technique who will play through the whistle. His brother, David, overcame cancer to return to the NFL. Scott seems like a kid who could end up starting for us at Center down the line.
Phillip Lindsay's nickname is the "Tasmanian Devil" because of his endless energy, toughness, and refusal to let his size limit him. At 5'8" 190 pounds, Lindsay is definitely undersized, but that didn't stop him from rushing for 2726 yards and 30 TDs over the past two seasons at Colorado. He also caught 76 passes during that time. Lindsay is a fearless pass protector who will stonewall edge rushers despite his small stature. He saved his QB from a number of hits in college. He's actually been compared to Chris Thompson by some, and there's validity to the comparison. Lindsay is small with good speed, great pass protection skills, and good pass-catching skills. He won't break a lot of tackles as a runner, but he'll get what's blocked. He has the potential to be a valuable HB on passing downs.
Projected Starters
QB: Jared Goff
HB: Todd Gurley
XWR: Sammy Watkins
ZWR: Robert Woods
SLWR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Gerald Everett
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Rodger Saffold
C: John Sullivan
RG: Jamon Brown
RT: Rob Havenstein
SDE: Michael Brockers
NT: Beau Allen
DT: Aaron Donald
WOLB: Robert Quinn
WILB: Alec Ogletree
SILB: Navorro Bowman
SOLB: Connor Barwin
LCB: Aqib Talib
RCB: Mike Hughes
SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman
FS: LaMarcus Joyner
SS: John Johnson III
K: Greg Zuerlein
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide
It's that time of year, now we are going to talk about all of the off-season possibilities and such. Recently on the brand new episode of the Downtown Rams Podcast (which you can find here) Joe Curley and I discussed the possibility of trading Sammy Watkins for Darius Slay. Now, it's time to take a look at the potential trade.
Darius Slay just had a monster season and Sammy Watkins had an underwhelming season for many, so why would this be a reasonable trade? Well, the Lions are likely the favorite to land impending Free Agent CB Malcolm Butler and besides that, they are going through a regime change as the team will now be in command of Head coach Matt Patricia. It's uncertain if Slay will fit Patricia's defense and with the amount, the Lions will have to pay Butler it may not make too much sense to spend more money on the position. Besides that fact, the Lions have Quandre Diggs, D.J. Hayden (UFA), Nevin Lawson (UFA), Jamal Agnew, Jalen Tabor & Des Lawrence on the roster. Tabor is a high pick, Diggs and Lawson are good cornerbacks, add Butler to that team and the Lions can trade a surplus to gain in another area.
That surplus would mean trading Slay for Rams impending Free Agent WR Sammy Watkins. The Rams are likely going to hurt themselves if they re-sign Watkins as they will probably have to move on from Trumaine Johnson or even LaMarcus Joyner. Instead of worrying about the draft and free agency, the Rams trade Watkins to the Lions and acquire Slay to either be a standalone starter or pair with Johnson to form a dynamic duo of cornerbacks. Sure, Slay's production outweigh's what Watkins did, but Watkins is 24 years old at the moment and oozing with talent and potential. Sure, the Lions recently signed Marvin Jones and Golden Tate on top of drafting Kenny Golladay for the receiver position but the Lions do have an out this season in Tate's deal if they choose to take it and Jones' potential out is after the 2018 season. Also, Tate is 29 years old and Jones is 27 and has shown way too much inconsistency. Watkins is again, 24 years old and is only going to get better. He is probably the type of receiver that wants to be the guy and with Matthew Stafford he would be the guy. Stafford has lacked that consistent deep threat since Calvin Johnson retired from the NFL. He would finally have that alongside Golladay for the future. The Lions could easily part with Jones after the season and keep Tate to man the slot.
Slay is already under contract but it's very affordable for his play and his age (27 years old). Slay is signed until the 2021 off-season which would give the Rams the ability to choose whether or not to move on with him or not when he was 30 years of age. There is a lot of balance that works with this trade, no one gives up any draft capital, the Rams get something from their big investment that cost them a top 15 CB and a second-round pick and the Lions make a big PR move to show the fans that this is a new era in Detroit. Everyone ends up happy, sure, the ideal scenario is to trade Watkins to the AFC but this is a really good fit for both teams. I think if this deal were to happen you might have to keep Johnson to play with Slay. That whole idea of having two number one cornerbacks seems to be the way the league is trending now with Aqib Talib & Chris Harris Jr., Jalen Ramsey & A.J. Bouye and the brand new duo of Marcus Peters & Kendall Fuller. If the Rams paired Slay and Johnson it would be right back to how it used to be with Johnson and Janoris Jenkins.
So, now, with the Rams parting with Watkins what would be the likely scenario to replace him you ask? First off, the Rams drafted a second-round TE Gerald Everett who will likely be used a lot more in round two and a fourth-round WR Josh Reynolds who is likely to be the next guy in line behind Watkins. Even so, the Rams could easily grab a WR in this draft class that can stretch the field like Watkins does, the Rams could bring in another Pettis, Dante Pettis, D.J. Chark or someone like Auden Tate via the draft. Bear in mind, if the Rams were to acquire Slay and keep Johnson while also re-signing Joyner and not trading or cutting Barron, they would be free to spend their draft capital on a wideout.
How the contracts stack up per Spotrac:
Rams get CB Darius Slay: 4 years, $48,150,000 - $12M annually
Lions get WR Sammy Watkins (Market Value): 3 years, $17,991,258 - $5.9M annually
Rams sign CB Trumaine Johnson (Market Value): 5 years, $55,311,605 - $11M annually
Overall, it makes a lot of sense, obviously, Watkins is going to command more than that, but in reality, I think the Rams might franchise tag him and trade him. That would be the best bet for the Lions. The Rams could decide to use Slay as the guy at CB and feel confident in Troy Hill to play alongside him and then draft someone, moving on from Johnson altogether. It would save cap space and fill a need that is expected. Not many expect Johnson to be brought back, but many do believe it is the right move to do so. The Rams already lost the Watkins trade to the Bills but they can salvage what's left and grab a Pro Bowl level CB and move forward with the ability to sign their own free agents if they play this right. This is not a knock on Watkins because to a degree, it wasn't his fault his numbers were down and he's going to want way more than his market value. One thing that was huge for Watkins was his ability to stay healthy all year long which was the biggest red flag with signing Watkins long-term. In the end, if the Rams decide to sign Watkins long-term for the right price in the range of 10-12 million annually I won't be against that, but I will be against the idea of signing Watkins for 15-17 million annually and losing possibly both of Joyner and Johnson. Watkins was an add-on, you don't want to make his acquisition cause you to become vulnerable in other positional areas because of the money you had to spend on him.
The 2018 NFL Stability Index After a tumultuous season, some of the usual powerhouse franchises have holes to fill and questions to answer … which team is now the most stable in the league? By Danny Kelly
Chaos is a ladder, or so we’ve been told, and for the NFL’s ambitious, power-hungry non-playoff teams, the 2018 season could provide an extraordinary opportunity to climb up the rungs. It’s not just because of the garden-variety parity drivers we see every year, like the unpredictable draft, the salary cap, or free agency. It’s not just that seven teams are going through head-coaching changes (that’s about average), that another three are under the control of new general managers (that list may grow), or that many more are facing turnover at the coordinator positions.
It’s all those factors combined with the most exciting quarterback carousel in recent memory and the fact a handful of the league’s most stable franchises appear to have developed cracks in their normally rock-solid foundations that creates a formula for uncommon pandemonium in 2018.
This Stability Index is focused primarily on the transition from the 2017 season to 2018 and beyond. This competition does not include the number of division titles, playoff games, or Super Bowls any of these teams have won over the past five or 10 years, it weighs factors that matter most right now: continuity in the front office and the coaching staff, security at the quarterback position, a core nucleus of stars, established schemes, a strong culture, and an identity.
Stability is fleeting, but for the most steady teams, we know what we can expect—and for the other end of the spectrum, it’s a total crapshoot. Here’s a list of all 32 teams, ranked from most to least stable heading into next season.
1. Atlanta Falcons
If this feels underwhelming, that’s because, well, it is underwhelming—but the Falcons’ place atop these rankings hints at the current state of tumult across the league. In three years at the helm, head coach Dan Quinn has proved to be a savvy game planner (see: the team’s wild-card win over the Rams) and capable leader, and is in no danger of losing his job.
Both coordinators will return (a rarity this year), the schemes and language therein remain unchanged, and both sides of the ball are packed with talent—with few major holes to patch. There’s plenty of hand-wringing in Atlanta about the decision to retain offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, but a drop-off from the team’s offensive explosion under Kyle Shanahan in 2016 was completely predictable (plus, they weren’t as bad as you might think from an efficiency point of view, finishing ninth in offensive DVOA). This isn’t the sexy top pick, but it’s hard to find a team that checks more stability boxes.
2. New Orleans Saints
The only reason the Saints aren’t no. 1 on this list is because of one small, technical detail: Drew Brees is a free agent. However, it’s all but a lock that Brees returns to New Orleans in 2018 and plays under Asshole Face’s guidance for the 12th time in the past 13 years. That kind of head coach–quarterback relationship is practically unheard of outside New England, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay, and sets the Saints up to hit the ground running:
Brees still has his top-tier outside threat Michael Thomas, his elite offensive line, running back Mark Ingram, and Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen returns for his fourth year on the job, and retains most of the key players on his top-tier defense.
3. New England Patriots
The Patriots have been the gold standard for organizational stability for damn near two decades, but head into 2018 in a state of relative disarray. There are the reports of internal strife, and that devastating Super Bowl LII loss and defensive meltdown caused, in part, by Bill Belichick’s mysterious decision to bench Malcolm Butler. There’s also the loss of defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, and the uncertainty around if and when 40-year-old Tom Brady will fall off the performance cliff (he’s shown few signs of that yet, but it’s called a cliff for a reason).
Even Belichick’s drive to keep coaching comes into question following Josh McDaniels’s decision to back out of the Colts head-coach job. Oh, and Rob Gronkowski might retire. Still, this is a team that just put up 600-plus yards and 33 points on one of the best defenses in football in its Super Bowl loss. There’s work to be done on the defense, obviously, but Brady and Belichick remain. Players, coordinators, styles, and schemes come and go, but as long as the Patriots are held up by those two pillars, they’ll have a shot at contending every year.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have all the pieces in place for a title defense in 2018. Sure, offensive coordinator Frank Reich could be headed to Indianapolis, and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo may be off to Minnesota, but this is still going to be head coach Doug Pederson’s offense. The defending champs have most of their nucleus of playmakers locked in, and getting left tackle Jason Peters, middle linebacker Jordan Hicks, and cornerback Sidney Jones back from injury next year should provide a nice boost.
Baltimore must make upgrades in the pass-catching corps and address the offensive line (guard James Hurst and center Ryan Jensen are free agents), but running backs Alex Collins, Buck Allen, and Danny Woodhead provide a solid foundation on which the team can build its offense.
The Ravens’ top-echelon defense returns most of its key pieces, but will be playing under new coordinator Don Martindale after Dean Pees’s departure. GM Ozzie Newsome is set to retire following the 2018 season, but the team’s succession plan (which has been in the works for five years, per Newsome) to highly regarded assistant general manager Eric DeCosta should make for a smooth transition.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ move to L.A. and their ownership situation in general is less than ideal, but apart from that, they have a strong foundation for a big jump in 2018. The troika of head coach Anthony Lynn, offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley returns next year, as does the offensive big four of quarterback Philip Rivers, running back Melvin Gordon, tight end Hunter Henry, and receiver Keenan Allen.
Defensively, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram make up one of the best pass-rush duos in the NFL, and the secondary’s stacked, featuring cornerbacks Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King. They just have to figure out their kicking game.
7. Los Angeles Rams
L.A. lost offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur to the Titans, but head coach Sean McVay’s still going to be calling plays for an offense that returns quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley, most of the offensive line (center John Sullivan is a free agent), and its top two wideouts, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
Defensively, L.A. must lock up Aaron Donald for the long term (a no-brainer), and must address the secondary, with cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson and Nickell Robey-Coleman and safety LaMarcus Joyner all set to become free agents. The Rams were the most improved team in 2017—and the foundational pieces are there for their continued ascent into the NFC’s elite.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin returns for his 12th year as head coach of the team: Check. Ben Roethlisberger says he’ll be back for his 15th season: Check (sorta). Antonio Brown, still a Steeler: Check. The offensive line, all set to return: Check. The elite defensive line, still intact: Check. Pittsburgh appears ready to hit the ground running in 2018, but a few major questions hang over the team’s figurative head:
Will star running back Le’Veon Bell get a new deal—or is a holdout or possible retirement on the table? What will the offense look like under new coordinator Randy Fichtner? And how can the team add depth to a linebackers group and secondary that got exposed by Blake Bortles and the Jaguars in the divisional round?
9. Green Bay Packers
The Packers overhauled their front office, fired both coordinators, and, much to the chagrin of Aaron Rodgers, dumped their quarterbacks coach. With those changes come many questions, like: How is the dynamic between new general manager Brian Gutekunst, director of football operations Russ Ball, senior adviser to football operations (and former GM) Ted Thompson, and head coach Mike McCarthy going to work?
What type of scheme can we expect from offensive coordinator Joe Philbin (now in his second stint with the team)? And how will the defense change under Mike Pettine? Only time will tell, but the Packers also have the most talented quarterback on the planet returning to action, and Rodgers’s ability to put the team on his back provides enough stability to keep Green Bay in the top 10 on this list.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars return their head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, and most of their devastatingly stout defense—and the foundational run game under Leonard Fournette should remain a constant. But the Blake Bortles decision (do they keep him as starter?
Will they be forced to pay his fifth-year option if he can’t pass a physical in March?) looms large. With receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson set to hit free agency as well, Jacksonville’s got some work to do on an offense that held the team back at times in 2017.
11. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys head into 2018 with (albeit uneasy) continuity at general manager, head coach, and both coordinator spots. They return most of the pieces that make the offense—and by extension, the entire team—go: starting quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott, and a road-grading offensive line. Dez Bryant’s future is in doubt, and Prescott must recover from a disastrous second-half performance last year, but the Cowboys are set up to bounce back.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback Andy Dalton and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor developed a nice rapport in the second half of the year, so it made plenty of sense when the Bengals signed Lazor to a two-year contract extension in early January. A.J. Green returns, as do running backs Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, so there are pieces upon which to build.
But Cincy’s offensive line is still a mess, and that factor puts a cap on the team’s offensive potential. On the other side of the ball, new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is a wild card. The Bengals have talent on defense, but it’ll be up to Austin to squeeze more out of that unit in 2018.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers boast plenty of stability in the form of returning head coach Dirk Koetter, offensive coordinator Todd Monken, defensive coordinator Mike Smith, quarterback Jameis Winston, and offensive stars Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. But that stability is tenuous: Tampa Bay underachieved on both sides of the ball in 2017, so Koetter heads into next season with one of the warmest seats in the league. If he can’t quickly right the ship, a coaching staff reboot may be in order.
14. Houston Texans
Head coach Bill O’Brien returns, and while defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel has been hired away by Tennessee, a familiar face in Romeo Crennel takes over the Texans defense. With that relative continuity, there’s plenty of reason for optimism in 2018, especially if Deshaun Watson can get back onto the field and pick up where he left off before he tore his ACL at practice in Week 9. Plus, if J.J. Watt returns to the fold after sitting out most of the year with a broken leg, the defense will gets its leader and best player back out on the field.
15. Carolina Panthers
Quarterback Cam Newton was erratic as a passer for most of last season, the team fired offensive coordinator Mike Shula and lost defensive coordinator Steve Wilks to the Cardinals’ head-coach job, and the franchise is up for sale.
But under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner, much of the language and play design should remain the same, making for what should be a relatively smooth transition, and another year in the system should pay dividends for both running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Devin Funchess. Plus, this club can still lean on its always dependable defense, anchored by linebacker Luke Kuechly and defensive tackle Kawann Short.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll fired some of his assistant coaches (or, in Kris Richard’s case, sort of just decided to start dating other people) and could be without several key defensive players. Safety Kam Chancellor and pass rusher Cliff Avril may both retire due to neck injuries, and All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman may not be ready for the start of the year with an Achilles injury.
Safety Earl Thomas has threatened a holdout, fueling trade rumors, and both tight end Jimmy Graham and defensive end Sheldon Richardson are free agents. The Seahawks have lost their identity—the run game was a total no-show in 2017 and the defense took a step back. Still, what Seattle has over most of the teams that follow is a bona fide, proven franchise quarterback.
17. San Francisco 49ers
For the first time in three years, the Niners are set to kick off a new season with an incumbent head coach at the helm. Kyle Shanahan—along with GM John Lynch and returning defensive coordinator Robert Saleh—has San Francisco poised for big things, but a few uncertainties remain: First, they must officially lock in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for this season, whether that means a long-term deal or the franchise tag.
And second, Garoppolo must prove that his outstanding performance over the last five weeks of the 2017 season was no small-sample-size fluke. The 49ers look like they’re on track toward contention next year, but “stable” isn’t the word I’d use in describing this franchise quite yet.
18. Miami Dolphins
Both Jay Cutler and Matt Moore are free agents, and the team must decide whether or not to double down on Ryan Tannehill (and his twice-injured knee) or release him and take its chances on the open market. Miami would take a $4.6 million dead-cap hit if it releases its former starter, but the Dolphins would save $15.2 million of cap space, which they could use to go after Kirk Cousins, Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor, or any of the other quarterbacks who could become available in the coming months. What happens at that spot could define the Dolphins’ season.
19. Washington Redskins
As long as Dan Snyder owns the team, Washington will never achieve much stability. And its decision to trade for quarterback Alex Smith rather than retain the incumbent starter, Kirk Cousins, creates plenty of uncertainty going into next year.
Will Smith play up to his performance last year, when he threw 26 touchdowns and just five picks? Or will he revert to the checkdown-heavy passer we saw for most of his career? How will Smith fit into the Jay Gruden offense, and how will he mesh with the team’s pass catchers? It may end up looking like a brilliant sign-and-trade, but right now it’s a major unknown.
20. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings return most of the pieces to their vaunted defense, and the leadership structure—general manager Rick Spielman, head coach Mike Zimmer, and defensive coordinator George Edwards—remains a constant. There are just two huge, glaring issues:
Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, the architect behind the team’s offensive explosion last year, is gone, and the team has zero quarterbacks under contract. Until we know who’s calling plays, and whether the Vikings are going to bank on Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, or someone behind Door No. 4, it’s impossible to know what to expect from the offense in 2018.
21. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are going through a near-full reset on the coaching staff. Jon Gruden, who hasn’t coached in a decade, replaces Jack Del Rio. The team’s got a new set of coordinators (Greg Olson and Paul Guenther), and a new offensive line coach (Tom Cable). Everything, from schemes, culture, identity, and style, could be different in 2018, and it’s unclear how Gruden and his new staff will mesh with the team’s $125 million quarterback, Derek Carr.
22. Tennessee Titans
I’m excited to see the direction the Titans take in 2018. New head coach Mike Vrabel sounds dedicated to modernizing the team’s offense under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, and Tennessee gets an experienced, respected defensive coordinator in Pees, who should bring toughness and physicality to that side of the ball. But right now, we just don’t know how, or whether, any of these changes will work.
23. Detroit Lions
Matt Patricia isn’t coming to Detroit under the best of circumstances, having surrendered 41 points and over 500 yards to a Nick Foles–led Eagles offense in the Super Bowl. The first-time head coach has a long way to go toward proving that his reputation for attention to detail and unmatched preparedness translates to his new team. Keeping offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter is a good start.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
To sum up the Chiefs’ offseason, consider this: They’re transitioning from a quarterback (Smith) best known for being conservative and protecting the football to another (Patrick Mahomes II) best known for his derring-do as a downfield passer. Mahomes’s talent is undeniable, but stylistically, he couldn’t be more different from his predecessor—and it’s anything but a given that the Chiefs’ transition to their new starter is going to be smooth. (It should be fun as hell to watch, though.)
25. New York Giants
The Giants have a new general manager (Dave Gettleman), new head coach (Pat Shurmur), new offensive coordinator (unknown), and a new defensive coordinator (James Bettcher). They will also have: new schemes, a new identity, a new culture, and likely many new players.
Add in uncertainty about the contract status of the team’s best player (Odell Beckham Jr.) and, well, there’s no telling what to expect. The only reason the Giants aren’t last on this list is that they still have an established, somewhat predictable quarterback in Eli Manning.
26. Chicago Bears
I love the Matt Nagy head-coach hire. I love the Mark Helfrich offensive-coordinator hire. And I love the idea of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky running that duo’s hybrid scheme, which should marry college-style plays with pro-style concepts. But Trubisky’s still very much a work in progress. We don’t know whether Nagy, a first-time head coach, has the makeup to be more than a good play-caller for the franchise, either. Uncertainty abounds … but this is a team to watch.
27. Buffalo Bills
The Bills made their first playoff appearance in 18 years this season, but, once again, must figure out what to do at quarterback. It’s pretty clear that Tyrod Taylor isn’t long for Buffalo, so the question becomes whether GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott will look to Nathan Peterman, to the draft, to free agency, or to all three, to fill that role. Until we know the answer to that, it’s tough to project what this team will look like in 2018.
28. New York Jets
Maybe the Jets make a run at Kirk Cousins. Perhaps they add Taylor, or Keenum, Bradford, or Bridgewater. It could be Foles, or even Bortles, who ends up under center for New York. But as it’s been for, well, seemingly forever, the outlook for the Jets’ season hangs on what the team does at the quarterback position.
29. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have won just a single game in the past two years and they have no apparent starting quarterback. They’re not last here because they have a shitload of draft picks, including no. 1 and no. 4 overall, and those two picks could be a catalyst toward some semblance of stability.
30. Denver Broncos
First-year head coach Vance Joseph kept his job after the Broncos’ disastrous 5-11 campaign, but six of his assistants weren’t so lucky. Denver’s once-fearsome defense has lost most of its bite, and the team’s search for its quarterback of the future has not gone well. Paxton Lynch doesn’t look like the answer, and now Brock Osweiler is a free agent (again).
The Cardinals have an almost entirely new staff and zero quarterbacks under contract. The team returns many pieces of its stellar defense from last year, but there’s no telling how that group will adapt to Steve Wilks’s new scheme.
The NFL’s offseason just started, but for front-office executives, vacation already has ended.
This month, teams will start to cut veterans with bloated contracts, then convene in Indianapolis on Feb. 27 for the league’s scouting combine. The NFL’s free-agent signing period starts in mid-March.
So it’s already time to look ahead. The Rams and Chargers both have a core of players under contract for 2018 but face big decisions. As part of an ongoing series, here’s an in-depth glance at the Rams’ quarterback situation:
GRADING 2017
In danger of becoming a top-pick punchline on the level of fellow quarterback JaMarcus Russell, Goff rebounded in his sophomore season and perfectly executed Coach Sean McVay’s offense. Goff took tremendous strides in terms of pocket awareness and decisions with the ball, and impressively spread the ball around among a sizable group of receivers, tight ends and backs.
Goff also appeared more at ease in a leadership role. He’s not an extrovert, but Goff sees to be at ease with his teammates and, most importantly, has developed a tight relationship with McVay.
Goff also did a much better job of taking care of the ball, and had only one game in which he committed multiple turnovers. Goff also played his best down the stretch. In his final five regular-season games, Goff threw 12 touchdowns and three interceptions as the Rams went 4-1 and clinched the division.
Things didn’t end particularly well, as Goff completed only 53.3 percent of his passes (his third-lowest mark of the season) in the playoff loss to Atlanta. GRADE: B+
ANALYZING 2018
Goff made great strides in 2017 but he’s not a finished product. Goff’s biggest improvements can come against the blitz. He’s much better than he was as a rookie, but he still needs to speed up a bit against pressure, particularly when it comes from the outside.
Then there’s the Todd Gurley dilemma. So much of the Rams’ pass offense in 2017 involved getting the ball to Gurley, either on designed routes or check-down plays. In 2018, defenses will game-plan against that — just as Atlanta did in the playoff game — so Goff, McVay and the Rams must find a proper balance with Gurley in the pass game.
At some point, it would be good to see Goff direct a fourth-quarter, field-length drive to win a game, just to show he can do it. Thus far, his ability to lead the Rams from behind hasn’t been shown, but then again, they didn’t trail very often in 2017.
The Rams don’t need to do anything here, in terms of the roster. Mannion, a solid backup, is under contract for one more season. At one point, the Rams might have thought about trading Mannion for a draft pick, but things probably will remain static at this position.
Going to kick this thread off with a player who is likely going mid-rounds, who lacks that high end speed to go early but is strong and has a nice ability to shed blocks or avoid them to make the tackle. Also showed up and played hard during Senior Bowl week and game, and fits nicely what the Rams are looking for next to Tree. By all accounts from staff to players at Auburn, he played hurt all season, with an assortment of shoulders, neck, concussion, etc.
ILB Tre Williams, Auburn
Strengths: physical & has attitude, can get off blocks, rarely gets pushed around, lays the wood.
Weaknesses: range is iffy on tape, concerns about his ability to stay healthy.
Who is the 6-foot-4 and 246 pound EDGE Dorance Armstrong Jr.?
He is one of the unique pass rushers in this draft class. Armstrong Jr. possesses tons of upside and a pretty high floor at the next level. He's freaky athletic and is built the exact way you want an edge rusher to look. He's got long arms, great quickness and an explosive first step. He's another high motor monster that will chase down and truly fight for the sack on the QB. It's even more impressive when you put context behind what he is doing during that play. You might see on the scoreboard ticker below his game film, he's in the fourth quarter and his team is down by more than 30 points and you won't notice that mindset as Armstrong is still fighting every play to produce for his team. That is a quality that you can say, no everyone has.
Strengths
Armstrong Jr. really has the mold of a potential star sack artist at the next level. He has the ability to play with his hand in the dirt or as a stand-up pass rusher as he did both at Kansas. He's one of the quicker and more powerful edge defenders in the class and as mentioned before his motor doesn't run out as he is trying to chase down a QB for the sack. He's an extremely talented run defender that will be a boost to any team instantly that he ends up with. His short-area burst and his bend around the edge makes him a threat for any defense. There is an argument to be made with Armstrong Jr.'s dynamic athleticism and 2016 production that he has elite level potential and if he goes to the right place he could have a coaching staff that hones in on his pass rushing maneuvers and makes him virtually unstoppable.
Weaknesses
The issue with Armstrong Jr. is that he has an arsenal of pass rushing moves, but he doesn't always stay consistent with using all of them. He can go with a speed rush or a bull rush more often than not despite the fact he has shown that he has a rip move and a spin move that he neglects to use even when necessary. He could use some more weight and upper body strength to help him disengage from blockers. He's going to need to improve on his play recognition due to the fact he falls for the ball-fake often. He had a serious production drop-off in 2017 and even though he played on a bad team, it's still something to be wary of.
How does he fit with the Rams?
Armstrong Jr. fits tremendously well with the Rams. He has huge upside and the interesting thing is that his Head coach David Beaty actually recruited Von Miller back when he was the Head of Recruiting at Texas A&M. There was an article on ESPN that suggested he could be the next Von Miller and of course Wade Phillips, the Rams Defensive coordinator coached him. Will he be the next Miller? Who knows? The Rams though, do not need him to be the greatest pass rusher in the league but they do need to get better at defending the run and Armstrong Jr. will instantly help with that. If the Rams take Armstrong Jr., it will likely be in the 1st round or the early 2nd after a trade down. So, with that being said if they take him they clearly don't view Samson Ebukam as the long-term answer or they don't see Robert Quinn sticking around much longer. Still, though, this is someone that has elite potential, has starting NFL pass rushing ability and is a stout run defender. There is definitely a fit for the Kansas prospect in Los Angeles.
Draft Grade
Rounds 1 - 3
Player comparison
Leonard Little
The Rams all-time leader in sacks (since we don't count the guy that came up with the term sack for some reason) Leonard Little is the best comparison in my mind for Armstrong Jr. Like Little, Armstrong Jr., has that motor, the bend and explosive first step on the edge. Little played with his hand in the dirt but Armstrong Jr., did most often in college as well. The two both have that athleticism that stands out to you on film instantly. Little was one of the more underrated pass rushers in the history of the league and Armstrong Jr. is built a lot like him. The main issue is Armstrong Jr. needs to bulk up and develop the upper body strength Little had to really meet his full potential some day. Overall, I do think Armstrong Jr. can be that blue-collar sack artist Little was for the Rams for so many years.
Ranking the NFL's Neediest Teams What are your franchise's chances of reaching the Super Bowl, football’s biggest stage, next year? That all depends on where you fall on our list of neediest teams. By ANDY BENOIT
1. NEW YORK JETS (5–11)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 6
PRIMARY NEED: BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE
The Jets wildly surpassed expectations by winning five games... which says everything about this roster. There are enough glaring needs that GM Mike Maccagnan can draft his board’s top player in the first four rounds and trust that each rookie will immediately have a major role. Quarterback is the most significant need.
After that: interior O-line, tight end, linebacker, cornerback.... How each spot is filled could influence the others. Coach Todd Bowles is known for blitzing, but he’s disciplined about playing to personnel. A stud corner would allow Bowles to use more pressure packages, but if there’s a pass rusher New York loves, the coach could rework around him.
2. CLEVELAND BROWNS (0–16)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 1, 4 (VIA TEXANS)
PRIMARY NEED: SLOT RECEIVER
The Browns are more talented than their 0–16 record suggests. They could use another playmaker or two on D (what last-place team couldn’t?), but more than anything, they need to redesign their O. Part of DeShone Kizer’s struggles at QB can be attributed to coach Hue Jackson’s asking the rookie to make deep, full-field progression reads out of spread formations.
It doesn’t get more challenging than that. Jackson is a shrewd offensive strategist; his unit can be better—especially if he has a true slot receiver around whom he can build shorter route combos, increasing the ways versatile receiving back Duke Johnson and nimble tight end David Njoku are used.
3. BUFFALO BILLS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 21, 22 (VIA CHIEFS)
PRIMARY NEED: EDGE RUSHER
The Bills’ biggest need is at QB, but that’s true for just about any team without a franchise guy in that spot. Digging deeper, look to the D-line. Coach Sean McDermott is a creative, effective blitz schemer. But he more often plays traditional zone coverages, which require a potent four-man rush.
Buffalo had just 27 sacks last season, tied for third fewest in the NFL, and you can see that reflected on film: Their front four rarely controlled games. This roster’s only viable pass rusher is defensive end Jerry Hughes, who can go quiet for stretches. The Bills need an edge bender opposite him, as well as a penetrator inside, especially if 34-year-old free agent Kyle Williams does not return.
4. CHICAGO BEARS (5–11)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 8
PRIMARY NEED: WIDE RECEIVER
The offense that new coach Matt Nagy coordinated under Andy Reid in K.C. prospered despite mediocre receivers. But that was a function of Reid’s passing-game creativity with running backs, plus the presence of multi-tooled tight end Travis Kelce. Nagy can employ his backs in the air (especially the electrifying Tarik Cohen), but tight ends Dion Sims and Adam Shaheen are neither dynamic nor flexible.
In his second year, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky will need more talented receivers. Cameron Meredith, coming off a left-ACL tear, can fill one spot—but that leaves three more. Just about any style of player will work here, as long as he’s a proficient enough route runner to aid the timing and rhythm throws that Trubisky’s success will hinge on.
5. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4–12)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 3
PRIMARY NEED: EDGE RUSHER
Everyone derides the Colts’ offensive line, but third-year center Ryan Kelly and guards Jack Mewhort (entering year five) and Joe Haeg (three) form a solid, improving interior; and Anthony Castonzo is a quality left tackle. The real problem: Injuries have kept these guys from playing together. Chemistry can develop once they stay healthy.
Instead of meddling there, expect second-year GM Chris Ballard to use his cap space ($84 million) and early draft picks to restock a defense that ranked 30th last season and needs work at every position except tackle and free safety. The fastest way to improve a defense is to add an edge rusher who can influence an opposing offense’s blocking scheme and make the quarterback play hastily.
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS (7–9)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 12
PRIMARY NEED: QUARTERBACK
This is as much about a franchise philosophy as it is about Andy Dalton in particular. The Bengals’ approach has long been to pay for a middle-tier QB and surround him with talent, investing early picks at receiver, running back, tight end and offensive tackle. With Dalton there have been ups and downs (dictated largely by how well he moves within the pocket), and all but one of his seven campaigns have ended somewhere between 6–10 and 11–5.
That’s respectable but ultimately unfulfilling. If owner Mike Brown is unwilling to change leadership at the coaching level, he at least needs to evolve Cincinnati’s on-field identity. This year’s draft offers at least four first-round QBs, and Dalton would count just $2.4 million in dead money against the cap if he was released.
7. TENNESSEE TITANS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 25
PRIMARY NEED: WIDE RECEIVER
Sure, the Titans drafted Corey Davis with the No. 5 pick last year. But he has yet to show the transitional quickness or top-end speed to stretch the field. Barring a sudden turbo boost (which we might see once he acclimates more to the NFL), Davis will most likely build his career on contested catches and possession targets.
In other words: Tennessee doesn’t have anyone who can threaten a defense deep, and that makes every part of the passing game more difficult. (There’s also the matter of Eric Decker’s free agency in 2018, and Rishard Matthews’s in ’19.) Finding a speed receiver with upside to pair with Davis and fellow ’17 rookie Taywan Taylor (a quintessential slot man) would be prudent.
8. ARIZONA CARDINALS (8–8)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 15
PRIMARY NEED: OFFENSE
New coach Steve Wilks inherited the defensive talent to run his blitz-intensive scheme. On the other side of the ball, there’s barely the personnel to run any scheme. There’s no quarterback under contract; starting guards Alex Boone and Earl Watford are both free agents; so is wide receiver Jaron Brown; and Larry Fitzgerald’s return is up in the air.
Cardinals general manager Steve Keim, in other words, has plenty of work to do. The silver lining: New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy is an adaptable play-caller with a strong grasp of modern passing concepts. Arizona can mold its system to fit just about any quarterback. If Keim can’t get in on the rookie QB action through this year’s draft, he’ll find a bridge guy and draft men to block and catch for whichever passer comes next year.
HARRY HOW/GETTY IMAGES
9. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (7–9)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 13
PRIMARY NEEDS: WIDE RECEIVER, LINEBACKER
Alex Smith is a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, but he can be serviceable with the right weapons. The Redskins need to find those. Wide receiver is the top priority, especially if free agent Ryan Grant is not retained. If he returns, then linebacker becomes the top need.
Speed demon Zach Brown was the only constant in 2017. Fans love him, but his performances are sometimes marred by misreads. It’ll be fascinating to see what kind of money he’s offered in free agency. Washington, a zone-based D, has no long-term depth around Brown, so linebacker will be addressed even if he sticks around.
10. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5–11)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 7
PRIMARY NEED: PASS RUSHER
It will be tempting to pursue a replacement for disappointing running back Doug Martin, especially considering that Charles Sims is also a free agent. But it’s far more important for the Bucs to get some teeth on a D that had no bite in 2017. This season was essentially lost when second-year end Noah Spence separated his shoulder in Week 3.
He was the only edge-rushing threat; without him, Tampa’s pass rush floundered and its zone coverages were exposed. The Bucs need an infusion of pass-rushing talent to ensure a single injury doesn’t scuttle their D again. Currently, Gerald McCoy and—once or twice a game—Robert Ayers are the only forces who flash up front.
11. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6–10)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 9/10
PRIMARY NEED: OFFENSIVE LINE
For Jimmy Garoppolo to be the QB savior that so many pundits imagine, he needs to be protected. Center Daniel Kilgore and right guard Brandon Fusco are free agents (and probably backups on most teams). At left guard, Laken Tomlinson has size and strength, but maybe not the ideal agility for Kyle Shanahan’s outside-zone running scheme.
Something else to consider: Left tackle Joe Staley is 33. He was strong in pass protection last season, but he wasn’t impermeable. Shanahan often asks his tackles to block one-on-one, sending all five eligible receivers out in routes. That helps his QB throw quickly, which Garoppolo thrived doing in 2017. Because of this, the Niners don’t necessarily have to invest hugely in the O-line—but it wouldn’t hurt.
12. DENVER BRONCOS (5–11)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 5
PRIMARY NEED: RIGHT TACKLE
Next year’s QB is anyone’s guess. Paxton Lynch? Kirk Cousins? Some first-round prospect? Whoever lands the job will need better pass protection than the Broncos’ passers got in 2017. Right tackle is the spot of greatest concern: The talented but unrefined Menelik Watson was a turnstile, and long-armed Donald Stephenson (another nice player who has never put it all together) couldn’t stick in the starting lineup.
Now: Stephenson’s a free agent and will most likely walk; Watson, who’s due $7.1 million, will probably be cut. Finding a reliable replacement would aid Denver’s undefined passing attack. (And if Watson somehow re-turns too? He could become a utility backup or guard, where he’s better suited.)
13. OAKLAND RAIDERS (6–10)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 9/10
PRIMARY NEED: WIDE RECEIVER
With his propensity for drops, Michael Crabtree and his $7.7 million cap number are not worth keeping. Two years ago, Crabtree’s fellow starting wideout, Amari Cooper, looked like the Next Big Thing—but injuries and his own slippery hands have been problematic. Also concerning: the way that Cooper, one of the league’s quicker and more nuanced route runners, struggles against press coverage.
If his 2018 is like the second half of his ’16 or any of his ’17, his long-term role will be, at best, as a No. 2. The Raiders can make Cooper’s (and QB Derek Carr’s) life easier by finding a topflight bookend. One with size and the fearlessness to go inside would best fit in new coach Jon Gruden’s system.
14. MIAMI DOLPHINS (6–10)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 11
PRIMARY NEED: CORNERBACK
The Dolphins could fall in love with some quarterback, running back or receiver—but they ought to prioritize corner. Xavien Howard, a polished, agile second-rounder from 2016, is on the cusp of stardom, and across from him, coaches appear comfortable with ’17 third-round pick Cordrea Tankserley.
But coach Adam Gase, a trips-formation evangelist, knows better than anyone that today’s NFL demands a solid slot corner too. Bobby McCain is decent, but his contract expires after ’18, and there’s no depth behind him. Miami should find a corner who has the spatial awareness to play zone inside but also the size to move outside as insurance for Tankersley. Someone fitting this description will cost a first-or second-round pick.
15. DETROIT LIONS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 20
PRIMARY NEED: DEFENSIVE END
It’s funny. In 2016, Ziggy Ansah looked so much better on film than his two sacks suggested. In ’17 he had 12 takedowns but looked markedly worse. His playing time diminished and he slid into a pass-rushing-specialist role later in the year. Long and limber, Ansah has the potential to be elite, especially on stunts and D-line slants.
And, yes, some of his inconsistencies can be attributed to knee and back injuries. Still, the Lions must think long and hard before applying the $18 million franchise tag to this free agent. If they don’t, another team will almost certainly overpay for him. Even if Ansah stays, a zone-based defense like the Lions’ can never have too many pass rushers. Detroit could definitely use another.
16. CAROLINA PANTHERS (11–5)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 24
PRIMARY NEED: OFFENSIVE LINE
It’s a myster how left guard Andrew Norwell—sturdy but by no means spectacular—earned first-team All-Pro. (No one on this line was All-Pro-worthy; that’s partly why the Panthers’ backs rushed for the second-fewest yards in the NFL.)
This perplexing nod might beef up Norwell’s market value, and his franchise-tag number is already inflated by the NFL’s asinine practice of lumping all linemen into the same pricing category. Re-signing him could be tough, and while he’s the only 2018 free agent on this line, right tackle Daryl Williams will be up in ’19, as will center Ryan Kalil. Carolina must replenish its depth up front.
17. NEW YORK GIANTS (3–13)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 2
PRIMARY NEED: RUNNING BACK
If the Giants fall head over heels for one of this draft’s QBs, fine. But Eli Manning has shown little sign of decline. His poor 2017 should be resolved, partly, by a healthy receiving corps and a revamped system under new coach Pat Shurmur. Any scheme is stronger with a dynamic back, which New York hasn’t had since Ahmad Bradshaw in ’12.
Last year’s fourth-round pick, Wayne Gallman, is intriguing, but not enough to build around. Orleans Darkwa, a better pure runner, could test free agency. So could Shane Vereen. If he leaves, the Giants will need a three-down weapon. If Vereen returns, they ought to get a first- and second-down bell cow, which shouldn’t be too expensive.
18. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10–6)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: NONE
PRIMARY NEED: INTERIOR RUN DEFENDER
The Chiefs’ defensive front seven has had some rich individual talent, but collectively that group has finished 25th and 26th against the run the last two years. Part of the problem is coordinator Bob Sutton’s preference for a three-safety, three-corner dime package on second or third down when facing a three-receiver set (which is common in today’s NFL).
Here the Chiefs almost always align in a light 4–2, and against agile runners they get gashed. If Sutton keeps this up, he must find an imposing every-down ’backer (Derrick Johnson, 35, is no longer that guy), plus another dynamic D-lineman in the mold of third-year pro Chris Jones.
19. LOS ANGELES RAMS (11–5)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 23
PRIMARY NEED: SECONDARY
The Rams’ best DBs—corner Trumaine Johnson and free safety LaMarcus Joyner—are free agents, but there’s enough cap room to re-sign both. If that doesn’t happen, any vacated position there becomes priority No. 1. Nickell Robey-Coleman is also headed for the open market, and his slot corner position could be hard to fill.
If the Rams somehow return all three DBs, they’ll refocus on the edge. Connor Barwin is a free agent. Robert Quinn could be cut next year. (He isn’t as swift as he was in 2013, when he had 19 sacks, and he doesn’t have a refined array of pass-rushing moves.) L.A. needs more juice on the edge.
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 18
PRIMARY NEED: DEFENSE
Four end-of-year starters are entering free agency: DT Sheldon Richardson, OLB Michael Wilhoite, SS Bradley McDougald and CB Byron Maxwell. More important, a trove of stars—DE Cliff Avril, SS Kam Chancellor and CB Richard Sherman—each suffered what are most likely career-altering (or -ending) injuries in 2017.
Plus, DE Frank Clark, OLB K.J. Wright and FS Earl Thomas all become free agents in ’19. Retaining all three is unlikely; replacing even one will be hard. Coach Pete Carroll’s replacing coordinator Kris Richard with Ken Norton Jr., (who was Seattle’s linebackers coach from ’10 through ’14), suggests that he wants to get back to a Cover 3 foundation. And that suggests speed is the attribute he’ll look hardest for in rebuilding.
21. BALTIMORE RAVENS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 16
PRIMARY NEED: EDGE RUSHER
THE INTERIOR O-line was the Ravens’ biggest weakness in 2017, but with Marshal Yanda (ankle) and Alex Lewis (shoulder) returning, guard should be set. Center Ryan Jensen (a free agent) improved greatly and is worth re-signing. Receiver is a position of need, and if Baltimore’s brass feel it’s time to give up on ’15 first-rounder Breshad Perriman, they’ll draft there. (Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin are an average duo.)
But don’t be surprised if they focus on bolstering a D that’s already among the NFL’s best. You can never have too many edge rushers—especially if your only consistent one soon turns 36. Hello, Terrell Suggs! If an instant threat isn’t available in the draft, Baltimore needs a developmental replacement who can learn from Suggs.
22. HOUSTON TEXANS (4–12)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: NONE
PRIMARY NEED: OFFENSIVE LINE
THE DESHAUN WATSON hype is justified. He’s a mobile out-of-pocket threat and has the potential to be one of the NFL’s best downfield passers. Those traits elevate his ceiling—but a QB’s floor is set by his capacity to play from the pocket.
After Watson became the starter in Week 2, he grew more patient and polished from the pocket, but it’s hard to see that continuing if the Texans don’t shore up the NFL’s least talented line. Foes eagerly attacked with stunts and inside blitzes, and that constant assault can erode a QB’s pocket comfort. Houston must upgrade all five spots.
23. DALLAS COWBOYS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 19
PRIMARY NEED: WIDE RECEIVER
Dez Bryant started slowing down in 2015. In ’16 top corners often defeated him. In ’17 defenses stopped giving those corners safety help, trusting that the 29-year-old Bryant—whose route tree was already limited to slants, posts and digs—could be handled one-on-one. (He was.)
Dak Prescott is a quality QB, but his style and skill set require that he be surrounded by talent, and that starts with a perimeter receiver who can separate and influence coverages. Bryant, who averaged a little more than 50 yards per game since ’15, and whose cap number is $16.5 million, is not that receiver.
24. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9–7)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 17
PRIMARY NEED: FREE SAFETY
Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s best years as a play-caller came with the Seahawks in 2009–12. There he had the NFL’s rangiest free safety, Earl Thomas, which gives a coach (and 10 other defenders) the confidence to be aggressive. Bradley is mostly running his old Seahawks-style Cover 3 zone and single-high safety man-to-man in L.A.
That demands superior personnel, which Bradley has in dominant edge rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, plus a talented cornerbacking group led by Casey Hayward. A playmaking centerfielder would do wonders for this unit. Last year’s starter, Tre Boston, had his moments, but he’s a free agent—and not the type you break the bank to re-sign.
25. GREEN BAY PACKERS (7–9)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 14
PRIMARY NEED: CORNERBACK
From last year’s roster, only 2017 second-round pick Kevin King is a bona fide starter at corner (and that’s assuming he can build on a stellar rookie season). Davon House’s contract is up, and Damarious Randall, a ’15 first-rounder, has his peaks and valleys. A change at coordinator does little to assuage the need for a reliable cover corner opposite King.
Dom Capers valued that role because it left more chess pieces for his pressure packages, and his replacement, Mike Pettine, thinks the same way. Pettine was the Jets’ coordinator in the Darrelle Revis years, when New York played solo coverage outside while ’backers and DBs were used interchangeably on inside pressure concepts.
26. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (10–6)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 29
PRIMARY NEED: TIGHT END
Regardless OF who’s at QB, this will remain a defensive-minded, run-first team. That approach becomes infinitely stronger with quality every-down tight ends. Really, you need two, which diversifies your formation options and your running game. It also fortifies your aerial attack, especially over the middle in this play-action-intensive scheme.
The Jags had a solid-but-unspectacular tight end for 12 years in Marcedes Lewis, but with his $4 million contract now voidable, it’s time to look forward. (A quality pass catcher would be an improvement on backups Ben Koyack and James O’Shaugnessy.) Some of the NFL’s best developmental TEs have been drafted in the middle rounds.
27. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (13–3)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 30
PRIMARY NEED: DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Case Keenum is the QB the Vikings should re-sign. Sam Bradford can’t stay healthy, and Teddy Bridgewater has limitations. In the end, only one of those guys will stick, and GM Rick Spielman’s search will shift to the defense. The starting unit is rock-solid, so a luxury draft pick can be afforded if the right player is on the board.
To plug future holes, the Vikes might also look to D-tackle, where free-agent rotational guys Tom Johnson and Shamar Stephen will most likely earn starter money on the open market. A project DT makes sense in the draft, given how successful Mike Zimmer has been at developing talent off his bench.
28. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (13–3)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 32
PRIMARY NEED: OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Jason Peters was playing at a Pro Bowl level before tearing his right ACL and MCL in Week 7. Philly’s left tackle will be coming off the IR at age 36. Peters’s 2017 replacement, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, improved his pass-blocking technique through the back end of the year, but he still might be seen internally as a high-end backup. (He can play on either side.)
Cutting Peters would save $5.3 million in cap space, but it would also carry $6.3 million in dead money. Optioning out of that contract a year later would save $8 million and cost nothing. Either way: If Peters departs, All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson can move to the left, but that’d still leave a need on the right. (Vaitai?) With franchise QB Carson Wentz to protect, the Eagles won’t be chintzy in restocking the position.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11–5)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 27
PRIMARY NEED: TIGHT END
With Asshole Face as the architect, Drew Brees the orchestrator and Alvin Kamara the headliner, the Saints have one of football’s most powerful offenses. A dynamic, versatile tight end—imagine the formations available alongside Kamara!—would make it borderline unstoppable. Saints fans will point out they once had this tight end: Jimmy Graham. And maybe they will again, given that his Seahawks contract is up.
Even so, New Orleans—which is at its best when balanced in the run and pass, and which plays a lot more base personnel than people realize—would also need to develop a quality in-line blocker. (Graham is not that.) Incumbents Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui are entering contract years; Coby Fleener, who’s pretty mediocre, can be released for a $3.4 million cap savings.
30. ATLANTA FALCONS (10–6)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 26
PRIMARY NEED: GUARD
Even with first-and-second-down D-linemen Dontari Poe, Adrian Clayborn, Courtney Upshaw and Ahtyba Rubin hitting free agency, the Falcons’ front is in fine shape. Every position on both sides of the line is set for the near future. Except guard. On the right, Wes Schweitzer, a sixth-round pick in 2016, improved late last year, particularly in pass protection, but he still has athletic limitations.
Andy Levitre, 31, was solid on the left but finished the year on IR and now carries an $8.4 million cap number ($7 million of which can be scrapped with his release). Matt Ryan is at his best when climbing the pocket, so Atlanta will invest in that pocket’s cleanliness. Whoever they acquire must be mobile, too, as that’s critical in Atlanta’s outside-zone running scheme.
31. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (13–3)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 28
PRIMARY NEED: INSIDE LINEBACKER
This defense wasn’t the same after Ryan Shazier went down with a spinal injury. Shazier wasn’t always disciplined, but his speed and athletic, multidirectional burst brought a unique ferocity to the front seven. The Steelers’ No. 2 inside ’backer, Vince Williams, was one of the league’s most improved players (including as a blitzer), but he’s not quite an every-down guy.
And much of coordinator Keith Butler’s scheme requires two of those. (At the very least he needs one in order to run his complex dime-package blitzes.) In base and nickel situations, Pittsburgh’s D-linemen often switch gap assignments after the snap. That high-risk, high-reward approach requires stable linebacking behind it.
32. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13–3)
FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICK: 31
PRIMARY NEED: CORNERBACK
Last year’s $65 million signing of ex–Bills corner Stephon Gilmore was a tacit declaration that Malcolm Butler wouldn’t return in 2018. Butler, undrafted in ’14, has made $5.4 million as a pro—a fraction of what he’ll be offered in guarantees as this year’s top free-agent corner. He’s one of football’s rarest commodities: a cover artist who travels with smaller, agile receivers like Antonio Brown.
He might not always shut them down, but the ability to even match up has lent coach Bill Belichick valuable coverage-design flexibility. The Patriots’ depth at corner is iffy already, and Eric Rowe will be a free agent after next season. With no other roster holes, don’t be shocked if New England, which plays a lot of man coverage, invests in multiple corners.
Fearless Predictions For the 2018 NFL Season By JONATHAN JONES
Last year I made nine fearless predictions about the 2017 season. I missed on a couple (Jeff Fisher did not coach this past season and Tony Romo most certainly did not play for the Broncos) but more or less (...less) hit on the others.
This season I re-up this column with double the takes as we enter into our NFL offseason together. Some of these predictions aren’t that far out but I went out on a limb for a few. Don’t be afraid to check my record this time next year.
The Seahawks get Malcolm Butler to keep their Legion of Boom on life support
Belichick may or may not ever explain why he decided to bench Butler during Super Bowl LII, but whatever the reason, I doubt the Seahawks care. Whether it was poor play in practice or something ranging on the nefarious scale (which Butler has vehemently denied), Butler is going to get paid in free agency and no longer be a Patriot. Seattle’s Legion of Boom has crumbled.
Earl Thomas could be traded if they can’t reach an extension. Kam Chancellor may never play again. Richard Sherman is recovering from an Achilles’ tendon tear. Seattle will surely add to the defensive backfield in the draft, but they need a free-agent signing now and that’s got to be Butler. Unless, of course, some hard feelings get in the way.
... and the 49ers win the division and go from worst to first
With all the respect to the Coach of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, 2018 belongs not to the Rams but to the 49ers. Mr. Perfection Jimmy Garoppolo went 5–0 while closing out the season with wins against playoff-bound Tennessee, Jacksonville and the L.A. Rams. He hung 44 on Jacksonville’s defense. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan seem to have figured things out rather quickly in the Bay Area, and another great draft this spring will solidify my prediction.
Nick Foles will be the Eagles’ starting quarterback in Week 1
The Super Bowl MVP will unseat Carson Wentz as the starter in Philly. How about that for fearless?
OK, not really. Wentz is clearly the franchise quarterback, but Philadelphia needs to be smart about his recovery from his ACL and LCL tear. He might be ready for the opener, but why chance it when you have a successful backup in Foles? That’s the reason you have him on the roster, after all.
It’s true that Foles is a free agent after the 2018 season, but that doesn’t mean they have to rush this offseason to get something for him. Start him for the first few weeks until Wentz is ready, send Foles back to the bench and come mid-to-late October, figure out which quarterback-needy team is willing to deal at the deadline.
Ben Roethlisberger will threaten to retire and will actually follow through with it the following year
That Big Ben says he’s mulling retirement isn’t so much a fearless prediction as it is clockwork in the NFL. But I think this will be it for Roethlisberger. His 2017 season was marred by throwing teammates and coaches under the bus. He’s clearly over the new generation of players coming into the league. He’s taken a beating over his career. The Steelers can’t seem to get over the New England (or Jacksonville) hump. This year, I’ll actually believe Roethlisberger when he says it.
Someone outside of the sports world buys the Carolina Panthers
Everyone in Charlotte thinks either some NASCAR team owner or local business leader will buy the Panthers, keep them in Charlotte and everything will forever and always be the same. I find that difficult to believe, because that ignores the fact that there are extremely wealthy people in this country who would love to own an NFL team simply so they can boast that they own an NFL team.
Why won’t some hedge fund manager in New York, who’s liquid enough to run for political office and win, decide he’d rather have a shiny NFL toy? What about a co-founder of some tech company in Silicon Valley? You need to be able to write a check for $600 million on the spot to even be considered a controlling owner of an NFL team. The pool of people like that in this country is small, and it consists mostly of people of whom you’ve never heard.
The Texans return to the playoffs
Deshaun Watson is back running on the treadmill, J.J. Watt is walking without a cane and the Houston Texans are my AFC South favorites. No disrespect to the Jaguars, who will still contend for the crown, but the Texans will be back in the postseason after a one-year hiatus.
Before Watt went down injured last season, he and Clowney were finally working well together, and Watson has plenty of weapons in Hopkins and Fuller. Watson had his team within a score in all three of his losses and should take that step next season with a healthy knee.
… along with the Chargers
The Chargers came close last year, finishing 9–7 with tiebreakers awarding the wild cards to the 9-7 Bills and Titans. Philip Rivers is still slinging it, Keenan Allen returned nicely from his 2016 injury for a nearly-1,400-yard season, Melvin Gordon broke the 1,100-yard rushing mark and Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram had double-digit sacks. With all the uncertainty in the AFC West, the most stable team is in Los Angeles.
The Bills sign a veteran quarterback in free agency
By benching Tyrod Taylor last season, this Buffalo has shown it’s not interested in him being the starting quarterback in 2018. Nathan Peterman, he of six interceptions in two-plus quarters, shouldn’t be the answer. And the team, picking 21st and 22nd in the NFL draft, may not want to wait or trade assets to move up in the draft.
I’m not convinced the Bills have the structure in place to foster a 21-year-old rookie starting quarterback with new OC Brian Daboll and a defensive-minded head coach. Go out and get a guy who knows what he’s doing—a Bradford or Keenum (or eventually trade for Foles)—and who can get you another wild-card berth. Because we all know who’s winning the AFC East.
The Patriots sign a free-agent QB better than Brian Hoyer and ultimately get back to the conference title game
I’m not willing to send the Patriots to Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII because there’s plenty to work out. Yes, it appears Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will remain together for at least one more season. And Josh McDaniels, the likely eventual head coach of the Patriots, is back as offensive coordinator after a big raise and some hurt feelings in Indianapolis.
The Patriots have to figure out their defense and plan for the future at tight end. All that said, though, if you have Brady and Belichick, you should expect this team to be in the AFC title at the least.
Drew Brees signs two-year deal with the Saints with voidable years later that will push cap space down the road
The Saints signal-caller confirmed he’s sticking in New Orleans, but of course he’s going to come at a price. If you look at the Saints, every year they seem to be in cap hell because of Brees’s contract that has some impossibly large cap hit that season. That won’t change. Brees will get a big signing bonus that will be spread out for cap purposes over multiple years. The end result: one, good final run at a Super Bowl with Asshole Face and locking up every meaningful passing record on his way out.
Dave Gettleman and Odell Beckham Jr. strike up a deal just before the season starts
In the 2014 NFL draft, the Panthers, Gettleman’s former team, selected Kelvin Benjamin, but the new Giants general manager gushed about Beckham, quick to share how he thought Beckham was the total package. He’s been around the block long enough to know that you don’t let a top-three receiver walk in free agency just because he’s a diva—that comes with Elite Receiver Territory.
There’s going to be some hardball and leaks on both sides throughout the summer, but Gettleman will reach an agreement to make Beckham the highest-paid receiver before the Giants kick off the 2018 season.
Kirk Cousins will sign a deal worth at least $29 million per year
Now that we are sure Cousins won’t be in Washington, we are also sure (maybe?) that Washington wouldn’t do something as dumb (maybe?) as tagging Cousins again and potentially being on the hook for $34.5 million. He will be the first true top-tier quarterback to hit free agency since Drew Brees, and there’s no doubt he’s going to get a contract bigger than Jimmy Garoppolo, who now tops the charts at $27.5 million per year.
Cousins is coming off an extremely impressive season considering the team around him, passing for his third consecutive 4,000-yard season. He’ll be 30 at the start of the season, and the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Teams continue to make a sham of the Rooney Rule
This year we saw just one team (Cardinals) hire a minority head coach. We saw the Raiders make a mockery of the Rooney Rule and the Patriots put themselves in position to do the same when Belichick steps down and McDaniels takes over. Hiring minority coaches in the NFL shouldn’t be that hard: seven out of every 10 players are black, and many coaches are former players.
Yet the numbers continue to be disproportionate despite the best efforts of the Fritz Pollard Alliance. No team seems to be getting in trouble by violating the spirit of the Rooney Rule, so I imagine teams will continue to try to circumvent this very important policy.
Jon Gruden flubs a crucial late-game decision that costs the Raiders a game because he hasn’t been on a sideline in a decade.
Sort of speaks for itself, no? Coaching an NFL after 10 years off isn’t exactly like riding a bicycle. This isn’t to say Gruden doesn’t know the rule changes or how the speed of the game has changed since he last roamed the Bucs sideline. But there’s bound to be some rust on THIS GUY!
The ratings will continue to decline
It’s obvious that we’re still oversaturated with pro football: fans can watch games wherever we want on Sunday, Monday and Thursday. In order to reverse ratings, there needs to be more exclusivity. On a whole, our television viewing habits have changed and that’s reflected across the board. And if the ratings from this year’s Super Bowl, one of the greatest ever pitting two teams in major media markets, turned out another year of declining ratings, then why is the 2018 season going to be any different?
Ryan Shazier gets back to running in 2018
Man, it was uplifting to see the Steelers linebacker stand when being applauded at the Penguins game this week. Shazier is now reportedly walking with assistance just more than two months after his scary spinal injury in December.
It’s obviously too early to tell if Shazier will ever return to football, but every positive update we get brings us more hope that he’ll be able to live a healthy and full life whether he plays football again or not. Here’s hoping that his recovery goes so well that we see Shazier back on a treadmill by the end of the year.
The Rams came in with the second-largest Super Bowl window, meaning that the club should be in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy for the foreseeable future.
No. 2: The Los Angeles Rams
“It's hard to do much better than having the Offensive Player of the Year (Todd Gurley), Defensive Player of the Year (Aaron Donald) and Coach of the Year (Sean McVay). Los Angeles is stacked with young talent and a strong coaching staff that also includes Wade Phillips, who is always going to be put together a good defense. Quarterback Jared Goff, meanwhile, will only improve. The Rams are in a similar place to the Eagles, only Goff isn't quite at Wentz's level.”
