Wanted to open a little more discussion on a primary concern position group and what might be coming this offseason and beyond for the unit. Here's where we're at right now...

Format:
Position Name Year//CapHit//DeadCapHit

LT Whitworth 2018//$12.1M//$5.8M---2019//$12.4M//$1.6M---2020//UFA
LG Saffold 2018//$7.5M//$1M---2019//UFA
C Blythe 2018//$.6M//$0M---2019//$.7M//$0M---2020//UFA
RG Brown 2018//$1M//$.2M---2019//UFA
RT Havenstein 2018//$1.2M//$.3---2019//UFA

So for starters we can assume that LT is going to be flipped after 2019 best case. Worst case he starts to break down this season and they find themselves in the market and draft for LT after this season. IMO it is extremely unlikely LT is addressed this offseason and draft, because the Rams are better off than most teams there and do not have the draft capital nor the cap room to prioritize LT above other needs.

LG is going to be extremely costly after this season. I expect Roger to have another Pro Bowl season and probably gets the votes he deserves, and it will be his last contract in his prime so he's going to want to get paid. That is an option, but with decisions pending across the other positions I am not certain the Rams will elect to pay him. In fact my guess right now is they let him play out his contract season and then walk in FA because they need to build the line that will allow them to utilize this window of playoff opportunity.

C will be drafted this offseason. I am certain of that. Why? Because you can get them midrounds, the position requires an upgrade or at least depth behind Blythe, and lastly because Sully is old and has that injury history plus should be paid pretty well in this market and rightly so.

RG is the crux for the entire decision tree IMO. If they really like Brown and project him to have a strong season they will lock him up and maybe at a rate that is good for both sides. If not, then they might surprise everyone and pursue a top OG in FA. Why? Because they have to pay someone else besides Whit on this OL as a minimum to lessen the FA hits come 2019. Someone's gonna get paid.

RT is where I expect the Rams to lock up Havenstein. I think it gets done very quickly this offseason. Why? Because he's a solid RT who is serious about his craft and will improve as we go forward. He's also not playing his best ball yet and that's when it's a good time to lock guys up. I don't like to address tackles in FA personally, and don't like this FA class in terms of whether there are upgrades over Havenstein, so I don't expect any possible activity there.

So IMO here's our rough options...

Option 1
* Lock up Havenstein to a reasonable deal
* Draft a Center
Why it's option 1... Because tackles are harder to find and require higher draft capital than interior guys.

Option 2
* Lock up Brown to a reasonable deal
* Draft a Center
Why it's option 2... Because Havenstein might price himself out of the Rams plans.

Option 3
* Sign a top OG in FA
* Draft a Center
Why it's option 3... Because both those knuckleheads might price themselves out of the Rams plans.

Strangely of all the three possibilities above Option 3 is the most beneficial to next season. Why? Because it upgrades the Rams' OL for the 2018 season by replacing Brown, who was their weakest link. Under this option the Rams' center position would be the weakest, but if they hit on a Center in the draft they could field a ridiculous line for one season.

Bottom line IMO is the Rams must lock up one position. If they can get two locked up through club friendly deals so much the better but I am talking bare minimum here. In that case and using Option 1 as an example this is what we're looking at after the season...

LT Whitworth 2019//$12.4M//$1.6M---2020//UFA
LG ***NEED***
C <drafted in 2018 position solid at best>
RG ***NEED***
RT Havenstein <locked up in 2018 position good>

Replacing two positions is a tough order, but it is doable. At that point in time with Whit coming off the books after the 2019 season they can move up in the draft and get their LT, and with money only locked into RT for the future they can add a strong OG through FA and draft the other one or fill through depth.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-just-how-important-are-sacks-for-a-defense

Just how important are sacks for a defense?
BY ERIC EAGER



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Sacks are one of the most game-changing plays in all of football.

Sacks force fumbles.

Sacks end drives.

Sacks are, at least up until Pro Football Focus came onto the scene, how we judged pass-rushers. However, sacks are not a particularly-stable statistic compared to other measures of rushing the passer. During the PFF era (2006-2017), sacks have been correlated season-to-season at a rate of 0.489 (r-squared of 0.239) for players with 150 or more pass-rushing snaps in consecutive seasons.

Pressure rates and pass-rushing productivity (PRP), on the other hand, are correlated at rates of 0.711 (0.505) and 0.717 (0.515), respectively. This means that more than half of the variability in how a pass-rusher performs one season (assuming they are healthy) can simply be gleaned from how they performed the season before.

Both of these pressure metrics predict sacks in subsequent seasons better than sacks themselves, with pressures and PRP correlating with sack rates of 0.548 (0.301) and 0.555 (0.309), respectively, both explaining more than 30 percent of the variability in sacks season-to-season.

So if pressure rates are a better means to evaluate pass-rushers, then why do we care so much about sacks again? The answer to that is simple: because they add so much value.

Using our Expected Points Added (EPA) model, we know exactly how much each impact play by a defender affects opposing offenses, with a positive EPA implying a successful play by an offense and a negative EPA a successful play by the defense.

• EPA on all passing plays: 0.025
• EPA on all non-sack passing plays: 0.145
• EPA on passing plays without pressure: 0.233
• EPA on passing plays with pressure (incl. sacks): -0.397
• EPA on passing plays with pressure but no sack: -0.074
• EPA on passing plays where the quarterback is only hurried: 0.019
• EPA on passing plays where the quarterback is only hit: -0.161
• EPA on passing plays where the quarterback is only hit and hurried: -0.323
• EPA on passing plays that result in sacks: -1.856

Notice that, on average, passing plays are a net positive for an offense, and passing plays that do not result in pressure are even more so. Once pressure is applied to a quarterback, passing plays become a negative proposition for an offense, but are an order-of-magnitude worse when they result in sacks.

So what does this mean for our understanding of pass-rushers using PFF data? First, sacks (and results) matter – they explain a great deal of what happened in a given season. The 2016 Atlanta Falcons’ defense was buoyed in many ways by the play of Vic Beasley and his 15.5 sacks, for example.

However, sacks are not the best way to project pass-rushing efficacy moving forward: Beasley’s relatively-weak pressure rates (18th among 3-4 outside linebackers in PRP in ’16) in relation to other similarly-statured edge defenders was a cause for concern, and his fall to five sacks in 2017 somewhat predictable.

The 2017 Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles spent a 2013 first-round pick on Brandon Graham, an edge defender who never eclipsed 6.5 sacks in a season, causing many to label him a bust.

However, pressure numbers have always reflected positively on Graham, as he was the third-most productive 4-3 defensive end in terms of PRP in 2016, trailing only Cameron Wake and Mario Addison, despite collecting only six sacks. This process led to results in 2017, as he generated 11 sacks in the regular season and a game-altering one in the Super Bowl, earning the Eagles their first title.

Statistics and metrics come in many forms. Some (sacks) are more descriptive than predictive – some more valuable when they occur in real time but difficult to use to project game-changing behavior in the future.

Some (pressure numbers) go relatively latent for a period, adding bits of value on a consistent basis, but lacking in the eye-popping events that we remember. Often the latter can better predict the former, though, meaning we must have a constant conditioning of our eyes as football analysts.

View: http://www.therams.com/news-and-events/article-1/Rams-Positional-Outlook-Running-Backs-/a7361364-43ee-40db-836e-b3341915b88b

Rams Positional Outlook: Running Backs
Kristen Lago

The 2017 Rams won their first NFC West title since 2003 with an 11-5 regular-season record. As Los Angeles’ focus shifts to 2018 and beyond, we’ll take a position-by-position look at how the Rams performed in 2017 and how each group currently stands at the start of the 2018 offseason.

RUNNING BACKS

RB | Todd Gurley III *^

— Team leading 1,305 rushing yards on 279 carries (No. 2 in the NFL) | League-leading 13 rushing touchdowns | AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year and FedEx Ground Player of the Year

RB | Malcolm Brown
— 246 rushing yards on 63 carries | One rushing touchdown scored

RB | Lance Dunbar
— 51 rushing yards on 11 carries | One rushing touchdown scored

RB | Justin Davis
— One yard gained on one carry

FB | Sam Rogers

— Signed a futures contract with the Rams in January

*Pro Bowl

^All-Pro

ANY FREE AGENTS?

Dunbar will become an unrestricted free agent at the start of the new league year, while Brown is set to become an exclusive rights free agent. Fullback Zach Laskey — who has spent the last two years on injured reserve after spending the 2015 season on the practice squad — is also an exclusive rights free agent.

LOOK BACK, LOOK AHEAD

The Rams running game in 2017 was centered around the resurgence of Gurley. After recording just 885 yards on 278 carries in 2016, Gurley showcased impressive development under head coach Sean McVay — re-establishing himself as an elite running back.

Not only did he lead the NFL with 2,093 yards from scrimmage, but he also scored a league-leading 19 total touchdowns. Gurley was key to Los Angeles’ success as his consistent production helped the Rams to an 11-5 record and an NFC West Championship.

Much of the same is expected from the running back in 2018.

Brown came into the season as the No. 2 back, but his campaign was hampered by a series of injuries. The Texas product injured his MCL during the Rams’ Week 8 contest against the Giants and missed the following four games. But he did perform admirably when coming in for Gurley, totaling 48 yards on 11 carries against the Cardinals and 45 yards on 10 carries against the Seahawks.

Dunbar opened the season on the clubs’ reserve/PUP list after aggravating his knee during the offseason. Although he was only active for four games this season, he does have the potential to help the Rams next year as a pass-catching back — should the two sides come to deal to keep him in Los Angeles.

Former USC standout Justin Davis impressed during the offseason to find a spot on the Rams’ active roster. But his struggles with protecting the football kept Davis on the backburner behind Brown and Dunbar for much of the year. Through four games played, he took just six snaps on offense and 34 snaps on special teams.

Joe Branham and I talk about the latest cornerback situation for the Rams following the potential loss of Trumaine Johnson and injured Kayvon Webster. We also talk about potential free agent targets for the Rams, who the team should re-sign and weigh the idea of drafting the "Best Player Available" or "Need" on the 62nd episode of the podcast.

Spreaker:
https://www.spreaker.com/user/downtownrams/downtown-rams-live-ep-62-w-joe-branham-a

iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast...branham-aka/id1233567831?i=1000403049892&mt=2

With the change to the CBA that allows teams to rollover any leftover cap (intended to maximize the spend by teams and penalize teams that do not spend to the floor)...

Could we see more teams "saving" cap dollars with the intent to steal a good player with a heavy front loaded deal?

This seems like it could be used in ways that disrupt things in a potentially negative way; does this motivate players toward free agency? How contracts are perceived, i.e. what does the best contract look like?

Sort of like;

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...ousins-60m-in-the-first-year-of-his-contract/

Jets reportedly want to give Kirk Cousins $60M ... in the first year of his contract

The Jets are not playing around when it comes to free agency. New York reportedly is willing to spend "whatever it takes" to land quarterback Kirk Cousins on the open market, and it appears that number might well be $60 million. In the first year.

According to Brian Costello of the New York Post, the Jets are toying around with ways of getting creative with a contract offer to Cousins, including offering the free agent quarterback an absurd $60 million guaranteed in the first year.

Yes, sixty million dollars. The logic here is that the Jets can't really match up with other potential suitors -- the Vikings, Jaguars, Cardinals and Broncos come to mind -- in terms of offering immediate competitiveness. Such is life on a bad team located in the same division as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

But they can compete with those teams in terms of money. In fact, the Jets have more than just about any other team in the league. Once they release Muhammad Wilkerson (and that will happen) and Matt Forte (and that is likely to happen), New York will be in the range of $100 million in cap space.


Go out and lob $60 million of that in Cousins face, make him swim in it Scrooge McDuck style, and all of a sudden you put him in a position where it's difficult to say no. Cousins can talk about playing for less money all he wants, but there's no one else getting him $60 million up front, in the first year of a contract. At that point you're talking $100 million or more in the first three years of the deal, and basically approaching a contract that ends up being fully guaranteed.

Under this construct, the Jets would also have another $30 million or so to go out and spend on free agents who can help Cousins immediately, not to mention the freedom to either use the No. 6 pick on an impact player (Calvin Ridley, Quenton Nelson, Saquon Barkley come to mind) or to trade down and pick up several players who can make the team better.

The Jets would ostensibly be selling Cousins on a multi-year plan that features them improving this year and then really trying to make a leap in the next few years, when they can be aggressive again in free agency thanks to Cousins's cap number coming down in the later years of his contract.

Whether or not Cousins is willing to go down that path with the Jets may depend on comfort for him. He clearly liked Washington and was willing to make something work, but the franchise never committed to him, particularly on the financial front. The Jets won't have that problem, and they can sell him on Jeremy Bates, a disciple of Mike Shanahan's offense, providing Cousins a lot of comfort with the system in place.


Everything here, by the way, is predicating on the Redskins not being petty and using the franchise tag on Cousins. Washington agreed to a trade for Alex Smith already, so it would be silly/obtuse to tag Cousins. But you never know with them.

They just have to hope that the combination of players, system and financial opportunity for Cousins beats out what everyone else is offering. Based on the rumors being thrown around, they have to at least feel good about their chance to overwhelm Cousins with the almighty dollar.

Add your own..!

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Probably the last one before free agency hits. At this point in time as we all know this is guess work, finding people you like and trying to put a round piece in a square hole.

Rams own Free Agency:

I'm cutting Austin and saving $3 million no explanation needed.

I'm keeping Quinn still.

I don't think we find a suitor for Barron so I'm cutting him. Reading through his contract details I'm not sure it saves as much money as some people hope or are claiming. This saves us $7 million.

I'm tendering Longacre, Lucas, Hill, Neary, Brown and Fickens.

I'm resigning LaMarcus Joyner he's likely going to take in the area of $10 million and I'll happily do that deal.

Resigning NRC to man our slot CB position.

Extending AD, went over this in the previous mock I think it's going to take north of $20 million a year. For this all I'm going to add is it's a 6 year deal with $70 guaranteed signing bonus so we take a $10 million cap hit this year.

Outside free agents:

Signing DT DaQuan Jones from the Titans. Ended the year with a torn bicep missing the last 4 games but was very productive this year and is great against the run. The 26 year old will be a nice addition in between Brockers and AD.

Seems I'm raiding the Titans free agents because I'm signing Avery Williamson at ILB. Good against the run but has room to improve in pass coverage. He and Jones help shore up our run defense.

At corner I looked around a bit. I had Breeland the last mock or two. I thought about Colvin but I think he's good in the slot and unknown on the outside, not much experience there and the results are mixed. Amukamara is a vet that could come in and I had Talib in the last mock who's still a possibility. For this one though I'm going to sign Malcolm Butler. It's going to take around $12-13 a year maybe more but it's hard to tell at this point.

Rough calculations puts me at about $7 million in cap space after free agency.

Draft:

Starting off with a trade. We trade down with the Giants for their 2nd (34) and 3rd (66) we give them #23 and our 4th (120)

Round 2(34) Mike Hughes CB UCF- I've looked at about 20 mocks by random people and about 1/3 of the time he goes in the first round (sometimes to us) and the rest he goes early 2nd. This like with all picks could change.

Round 3(66) Tyrell Crosby T Oregon - I know some aren't going to like taking an OT this high but I see a guy who will be Whitworth's successor and if needed could start for either he or Havenstein in case of injury this coming year.

Round 3(87) Uchenna Nwosu OLB USC - In this scenario he comes in and competes with Ebukam opposite of Quinn and provides good depth with Matt Longacre.

Round 5(151) Scott Quesenberry C UCLA - I didn't resign Sullivan in this mock so I'm having a 4 man competition with Blythe, Neary, Eldrenkamp and Quesenberry. Blythe looked good there and at Guard and Neary did good week 17 starting there against the Whiners. Eldrenkamp was a personal choice of Kromers so he has faith there and I'm adding another body that's capable of playing both Guard and Center as we know Kromer likes.

Round 6(197) Kameron Kelly S San Diego St - Big FS with the ability to play the center field position. Could go higher than this but he can come in as depth behind Joyner and contribute on special teams, which is needed because I didn't have us signing Davis.

Round 6(198) J.T. Thomas CB Oklahoma - Double dipping at CB for some depth. Thomas has some good ball skills and size but has had minor injuries and consistency problems which is why he drops here. Somebody for Pleasant to work with.

Round 6(200) Greg Gilmore NT LSU - I was looking at ILB here but didn't see anybody I liked that would be here this late. Gilmore is a big guy with room to grow. A productive senior year and with us signing Ellis he will be rotational depth as he adds more strength to play the NT.

There are several UDFA priorities I like but I'll refrain until we get closer cause some could be seen as 6th or 7th round picks at this point.

Depth Chart

QB: Goff, Mannion, Allen
RB: Gurley, Brown, Davis
WR: Wood, Kupp, Cooper, Reynolds, Thomas, Brown
TE: Higbee, Everett, Hemingway
LT: Whitworth, Crosby
RG: Saffold, Neary
C: Blythe, Quesenberry
LG: Brown, Eldrenkamp
RT: Havenstein, Lucas

DE: Donald, Fox
NT: Jones, Gilmore
DE: Brockers, Westbrook, Smart
OLB: Quinn, Longacre
ILB: Williamson, Hager
ILB: Ogletree, Littleton
OLB: Ebukam, Nwosu, Price
CB: Butler, Webster, Hughes, NRC, Hill, Thomas, Peterson
FS: Joyner, Kelly
SS: Johnson, Christian, I Johnson

Hughes right now is who I'm looking at for our first pick whether we trade down or stay at 23. I'd love a NT like Payne to fall to us but I just don't see that happening. I let Watkins walk because he will likely get paid more than I personally want him to get and it's time for Reynolds to step up and produce. I thought about signing a vet like Brown or Richardson to push him just didn't devote the free agency money to do it.

Well what do you think?

Ive been having some bad stomach pains the last few days. My daughter had influenza B, I just assumed it was tied together. The pain increased every day and last night was a tipping point. Maybe two hours of sleep.

I got up this morning and couldn’t hardly walk, I was doubled over in pain. The worst damn pain I’ve ever felt, and I get gout.

My wife finally convinced me to go to the ER.

Luckily I listened. Turns out I have diverticulitis and a perforated colon. They caught it early enough that I won’t require surgery, at least at this point. The surgeon seems optimistic.

The pain is so intense. Anyone else have this? Some pointers by chance?

Congratulations Billy Graham on your promotion this morning.



Well done, good and faithful servant.

Volume begins at :38
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https://www.pscp.tv/w/1dRKZeopoDVxB

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I don’t do mocks. Just don’t follow the college game nearly enough. I do enjoy reading the mocks of others, though. They entertain, educate, and provoke strategy thought.

But I do have some 30,000 foot impressions about what we may soon see.

In no particular order:

Watkins is 70%+ to be extended, but not tagged. Probably for more than the $10 million maximum that I would give him, too. I sense that S&M want him, so it will happen.

A LOT prospect that they like that falls to #23 is the only way I see them spending a premium pick on O at any position before the 4th round. So, forget about those C and G picks in the 1st round, fellas. Won’t be a WR or TE that early, either.

This will be a draft to “finish” Wade’s D. He’s gonna get the lion’s share of attention via FA and the draft. Depending on FA, our first 3 picks could be spent on D.

BTW, don’t go to sleep on a trade down possibility. If Snead sees a plateau of more or less equally rated players a bit below at positions of Ram need, I think he would jump on such a trade down opportunity. Maybe pick up an early 2nd and 3rd?

I see a fairly active FA for the Rams. Not necessarily top tier, mostly 2nd tier. They excelled with that strategy last year and I fully expect them to do it again. Don’t laugh, but inexpensive replacements for Watkins and TruJo could come in exactly this way.

I don’t see an incoming TE as a FA, or certainly as an early draft pick. I think they want to develop their in-house corps. Keep an eye on Hemingway, while we’re at it.

I think Quinn is 70% gone, hopefully in a trade of some kind, Barron is 50-50 to go, I think. Both are on cap stressing contracts, so it might come down to what the brain trust thinks our alternatives might yield in terms of bang for the buck. The cap savings by offloading these two would be mighty tempting for use in multiple shrewd 2nd tier FA moves to improve this roster.

I don’t see any way that they don’t extend Joyner for at least 5 years. I’ll even give that a “bank it”.

NRC is in, too. Excellent value with him and leaves one less hole to fill.

I make Sully 90% to be extended for 2 years. Just so effective and so smart. Was a highly underrated signing last year and was a big part of Goff and Gurley’s big years.

Giving Saffold an early extension would be a smart move, too.

I predict a new starting CB via FA and another via draft. Perhaps our #23. Then again, Snead has a superb record of finding quality secondary players after the 1st round and may well choose to try to do so again.

Depending on FA and, more importantly, who falls, I see a pretty evenly divided likelihood of a NT, Edge rusher, CB, or LOT as our 1st rounder. Any would make a ton of sense to me.

In short, anyone expecting many bold moves on O is gonna be disappointed, I’m afraid. I suspect that they’re 90% comfortable with their O situation, pending the Watkins decision. But the D is gonna have a lot of new faces on it this season. Perhaps 6 new starters. Yeah, six. Wade is gonna be heavily involved in many offseason move decisions ranging from TruJo, Quinn, Barron, and Barwin, through maybe the first 3 picks in this draft.

While I realize his hurdling is a split second decision and not pre-planned and he can't help himself, I still cringe each time TD does this.

Click link below to watch video.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-Gt2HhVqSU

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http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angele...todd-gurleys-hurdles-in-honor-of-the-olympics

Auditioning for 2020 Olympics? Ranking Todd Gurley's best hurdles
Alden Gonzalez

If hurdling football players in full pads were an Olympic sporting event, Todd Gurley might be going for gold in Pyeongchang right now. The Los Angeles Rams' star running back has turned heads numerous times for his ability to leap professional athletes in a single bound, especially while on his way to being named the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year in 2017.

It doesn't surprise those who know him best.

Gurley was a star hurdler at Tarboro High School in North Carolina. He was so good, so natural, that his track coach, Andrew Harding, used to think he could someday medal in the Olympics. Instead, Gurley utilized those talents on the football field. He doesn't ever plan to hurdle opponents. "It just happens," Gurley said. It's instinctive -- and yes, it's also dangerous.

Asked about his hurdling while on Fox Sports 1's "Undisputed" show last month, Gurley smiled and said: "I don't know why I do it, man. ... One day, it's probably going to end bad. But until then, I'm going to keep jumping. For the most part, it's more DBs. Most DBs are not going to hit a running back high, especially if they're going a hundred miles per hour fast at them. It's kind of just a reaction, and for the most part, it's been working."

Has it ever.

Below, we ranked five of Gurley's hurdles from the 2017 season and assigned them a judge's score.

Hurdle No. 5

Courtesy of NFL

Situation: Second-and-11, ball at the Rams' 19-yard line with 9 minutes, 9 seconds left in the fourth quarter of Week 14, leading 35-34.

Human hurdle: Philadelphia Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins.

Outcome: Jared Goff spins out of a sack and dumps it off to Gurley as he streaks across the field. Gurley then leaps over Jenkins as he crouches to make the tackle and picks up 5 or so extra yards for a total gain of 9. Two plays later, however, Goff coughs up a fumble for the key turnover in an eventual loss.

Score: 7.6. Gurley cleared Jenkins, but he didn't have to jump as high to do so. He also changed his landing foot midair, which caused him to slip when he hit the turf. Gurley gets extra points for having to reach across his body to make the catch moments before hurdling a defender, but this was his least-impressive leap of the season -- and that's saying something.

Hurdle No. 4

Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports

Situation: First-and-10, ball at the opponent's 47-yard line with 9:23 left in the third quarter of Week 4, trailing 24-16.

Human hurdle: Dallas Cowboys safety Jeff Heath.

Outcome: Gurley darts through a hole to his left, picks up a first down, then is confronted by Heath, who barely manages to bring Gurley down on his leaping attempt. Gurley picks up about 3 extra yards with his jump and 17 total yards on the play, getting deep into Cowboys territory to eventually set up a field goal.

Score: 8.1. Gurley didn't stick the landing on this one. Heath's head got just enough of Gurley's groin to interrupt what would've been a superb hurdle. Had he not, Gurley might have gained an extra 30 yards for a touchdown. He still would've had to outrun linebacker Jaylon Smith, who was creeping up from behind and ultimately helped secure the tackle. But Heath was acting as the last line of defense.

Hurdle No. 3

Courtesy of NFL

Situation: Second-and-10, ball at the Rams' 32-yard line with 7:09 left in the second quarter of Week 2, trailing 13-7.

Human hurdle: Washington Redskins cornerback Kendall Fuller.

Outcome: Gurley could've been stopped at the line of scrimmage, but his leap instead turned this into an 8-yard catch and run. That play was negated, however, because of a holding call on another Redskins cornerback, Josh Norman, prompting an automatic first down that helped set up a field goal in an eventual loss.

Score: 8.9. Gurley cleanly cleared the defender, then stuck the landing so well that he was able to immediately whip around the corner to get past another defender in linebacker Mason Foster. That's huge. But the degree of difficulty wasn't as high because Fuller was coming low and at an angle.

Hurdle No. 2

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Situation: First-and-10, ball at the opponent's 23-yard line with 10:41 left in the second quarter of Week 16, leading 6-3.

Human hurdle: Tennessee Titans safety Kevin Byard.

Outcome: Gurley runs a drag, makes about a 3-yard catch, runs toward the left sideline, then hurdles Byard and picks up a first down on an eventual 16-yard gain. It extended an eventual 16-play drive that absorbed more than eight minutes. New kicker Sam Ficken couldn't finish off the drive, missing a field goal. But the Rams won the game and thus clinched a division title.

Score: 9.2. There was a lot of traffic on this jump, but a closer look makes you really appreciate what Gurley did. Immediately after he regained his momentum after catching a throw that was behind him, he cleared Byard, then, as he was coming down, used his right leg to propel himself off the body of linebacker Wesley Woodyard to pick up even more yardage. All with very little room to work with.

Hurdle No. 1

Harry How/Getty Images

Situation: First-and-10, ball at the opponent's 18-yard line with 8:53 left in the third quarter of Week 2, trailing 20-10.

Human hurdle: Redskins cornerback Bashaud Breeland.

Outcome: Gurley turned what would've been a modest 8-yard gain into an 18-yard touchdown off a screen pass. After hurdling Breeland, he burst toward the end zone and stretched out his left arm just far enough to cross the plane before Deshazor Everett could push him out of bounds.

Score: 9.9. In the annals of football hurdling, this one should stand as the model. Breeland was barely even crouching, probably because he saw what Gurley did to his poor teammate in the prior quarter of this game. But Gurley still cleared him cleanly with a jump that must have taken him about six feet off the ground. That it led directly to a touchdown because of another impossibly athletic play takes it to another level.

Jake Ellenbogen's 2018 Top Defensive Players Free Agency Prediction
February 20, 2018 | By:Jake Ellenbogen

I gave you the first dose of my free agency predictions earlier with this article on the top offensive players. Now, I move over to the defense.

EDGE rushers


DeMarcus Lawrence, 25 years old, Dallas Cowboys
PFF Grade: 3rd
FA Destination: Dallas Cowboys
Contract: Franchise Tag - 1 year, $16.9 million
Explanation: DeMarcus Lawrence is only 25 years of age and just had an elite season in one of the weaker pass rush free agent classes. He's going to be paid big time, but the Cowboys need to get their bearings and tag him first and foremost. Lawrence is already expected to be tagged by Dallas according to multiple reports.

Ezekiel Ansah, 28 years old, Detroit Lions
PFF Grade: 40th
FA Destination: Indianapolis Colts
Contract: 4 years, $60 million
Explanation: Ezekiel Ansah is rumored to not be a fit for the Lions new scheme under Matt Patricia. The Colts are a team with a lot of cap that will pursue these free agents hard. Ansah struggled to start the year but finished strong and is in a weak class that was even made weaker because of Lawrence being tagged.

Kony Ealy, 26 years old, New York Jets
PFF Grade: 60th
FA Destination: New York Jets
Contract: 4 years, $31 million
Explanation: Kony Ealy and the Jets have mutual interest to get a deal done. The Jets have no interest in letting Ealy go when they have as much cap space as they do. He was a gift last off-season, the Patriots traded a second-round pick for him and waived him. The Jets can't afford to just let someone like that leave.

Alex Okafor, 27 years old, New Orleans Saints
PFF Grade: 22nd
FA Destination: New Orleans Saints
Contract: 2 years, $14 million
Explanation: Alex Okafor received the starting job for New Orleans and was great during his time this season. The only issue is that he went down with an injury. He only signed a one-year deal but I expect him to re-sign with the Saints.

Defensive interior linemen


Sheldon Richardson, 27 years old, Seattle Seahawks
PFF Grade: 27th
FA Destination: Atlanta Falcons
Contract: 5 years, $60 million
Explanation: I don't think the Seahawks have a chance of signing Richardson unless they tag him. I think the Falcons are a perfect scheme fit next to Grady Jarrett and I think that the Falcons will replace Dontari Poe.

Star Lotulelei, 28 years old, Carolina Panthers
PFF Grade: 109th
FA Destination: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Contract: 4 years, $32 million
Explanation: The Buccaneers are expected to part with defensive tackle Chris Baker and Lotulelei is likely out of Carolina. It's a good fit overall putting him next to Gerald McCoy. The Bucs have space and the Panthers can't wait to try out first-round pick Vernon Butler with Lotulelei's departure.

Dontari Poe, 27 years old, Atlanta Falcons
PFF Grade: 35th
FA Destination: Indianapolis Colts
Contract: 3 years, $19 million
Explanation: It was discussed last year whether or not Poe would leave and reunite with Chris Ballard in Indy. I didn't buy it because I felt like Poe was staying in Kansas City. That didn't happen, and Poe went to Atlanta one a one-year deal but now I expect the Colts and Ballard to bring in Poe and replace at Al Woods at nose tackle.

Linebackers


Avery Williamson, 25 years old, Tennessee Titans
PFF Grade: 10th
FA Destination: Tennessee Titans
Contract: 4 years, $42 million
Explanation: There is a good chance that the best linebacker on the market or at least the most valuable is the most underrated. No one is talking about the 25-year old linebacker that is coming off a Pro Bowl caliber season. Williamson might be a great fit for the Steelers after playing under Dick LeBeau and with the injury to Ryan Shazier but I fully expect the Titans to step up to the plate and pay Williamson. A better way to put it, I don't see a former linebacker who is now the Head coach in Mike Vrabel willing to part with his best linebacker on the roster for no reason whatsoever.

Preston Brown, 25 years old, Buffalo Bills
PFF Grade: 42nd
FA Destination: Buffalo Bills
Contract: 4 years, $35 million
Explanation: Preston Brown wants to stay with the Bills and the Bills likely want to keep him in Buffalo. At 25, there is still plenty of potential left for an already very good player in Brown. Could he leave? Sure, but I would most likely bet on him staying in western New York.

Tahir Whitehead, 27 years old, Detroit Lions
PFF Grade: 25th
FA Destination: New Orleans Saints
Contract: 4 years, $32 million
Explanation: Tahir Whitehead could come back to Detroit but I expect him to go to where he gets paid the most. This is likely going to be the last chance for Whitehead to nab a long-term deal and the Saints provide the ability to lead a team in the middle of the defense, a good defense at that and an overall good team that wasn't far from the NFC title game. No, I don't think Craig Robertson, A.J. Klein and Manti Te'o is enough. Whitehead can really help bolster that linebacker core.

Anthony Hitchens, 25 years old, Dallas Cowboys
PFF Grade: 20th
FA Destination: Indianapolis Colts
Contract: 4 years, $26 million
Explanation: The Giants would be the perfect fit for Anthony Hitchens but they won't be able to outbid the Colts. Sure, the Cowboys will want Hitchens back but in the end, he goes and reunites with Matt Eberflus who left the Cowboys to become Defensive coordinator in Indianapolis. The Colts have tons of money to spend and should probably use most of it on repairing that defense. The linebackers could use a major upgrade and luckily you don't end up having to take out a mortgage on a 25-year old LB, because Hitchens is a total value pickup.

Nigel Bradham, 28 years old, Philadelphia Eagles
PFF Grade: 21st
FA Destination: Philadelphia Eagles
Contract: 2 years, $13 million
Explanation: The Eagles cannot afford to let Bradham leave in free agency. The reigning Super Bowl champions will have a rough time fitting him under the cap but with some wiggle room the Eagles can make it happen and I expect they will.

Demario Davis, 29 years old, New York Jets
PFF Grade: 8th
FA Destination: New York Jets
Contract: 3 years, $15 million
Explanation: Demario Davis took almost a three million dollar pay cut before the season started to stay with the Jets. He responded by having a huge season and now he's definitely in the Jets plans. Again, lots of cap space and value? I don't see Davis leaving New York.

NaVorro Bowman, 29 years old, Oakland Raiders
PFF Grade: 11th
FA Destination: Oakland Raiders
Contract: 3 years, $12.5 million
Explanation: Bowman was cut like he didn't matter but the Raiders didn't care. They scooped him up and he had a great year. With Jon Gruden now in command, I would expect Bowman to retained for sure.

Cornerbacks


Kyle Fuller, 26 years old, Chicago Bears
PFF Grade: 22nd
FA Destination: Chicago Bears
Contract: Franchise Tag - 1 year, $14.2 million
Explanation: I could see the Bears not tagging Fuller and letting him test free agency but the Bears know he is a goner if he gets out on the open market. Teams like the Chiefs who could pair him with his brother Kendall, the Colts who have a lot of cap space, the Browns, the 49ers and even more teams could make a run at Fuller. Vic Fangio stayed as Defensive coordinator, you cannot afford to let Fuller leave now. Bears tag Fuller for sure.

Malcolm Butler, 27 years old, New England Patriots
PFF Grade: 51st
FA Destination: Green Bay Packers
Contract: 5 years, $67 million
Explanation: Look, Malcolm Butler is way more than just an interception in the Super Bowl. He's surprisingly been underrated since doing that and this year he was disrespected after the Patriots decided to not only avoid paying Butler but sign a free agent to a big contract in what was seemingly replacing Butler. The Packers just made a fantastic hire of Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, he is going to need to really turn this defense around and that will certainly require a lockdown on-an-island cornerback like Butler. Ted Thompson is no longer the General manager and you may actually see a Green Bay splash this season. It's a good fit for both parties involved.

Trumaine Johnson, 28 years old, Los Angeles Rams
PFF Grade: 68th
FA Destination: Oakland Raiders
Contract: 5 years, $63 million
Explanation: Jon Gruden has always spoken highly of Trumaine Johnson when he has covered the Rams on ESPN Monday Night football. I think the Raiders have some nice secondary pieces in the form of Karl Joseph, Obi Melifonwu and Gareon Conley but the Raiders lack another true corner next to Conley. With T.J. Carrie hitting free agency and Sean Smith completely underachieving I expect Johnson to stay in the west coast and sign with the Raiders. Johnson wants to come back to the Rams but it appears the Rams are ready to move on from him according to a report from Jason La Canfora.

E.J. Gaines, 25 years old, Buffalo Bills
PFF Grade: 13th
FA Destination: Tennessee Titans
Contract: 5 years, $50 million
Explanation: E.J. Gaines has been a really good cornerback in his career but his problem has been injuries. The 25-year old is likely going to leave Buffalo. I think his best fit is with the Titans. The team is already talented, they have the cap space and really can use Gaines to tune up the secondary. Gaines offers the versatility to play inside or outside with Logan Ryan and Adoree Jackson so he will fit in like a glove. Gaines with his age and his production when healthy makes him perhaps the most interesting free agent cornerback available.

Prince Amukamara, 28 years old, Chicago Bears
PFF Grade: 41st
FA Destination: Houston Texans
Contract: 1 year, $8 million
Explanation: This is the NFL mercenary of the league. Prince Amukamara signs another one-year deal and joins a struggling Texans secondary.

Bashaud Breeland, 26 years old, Washington Redskins
PFF Grade: 54th
FA Destination: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Contract: 4 years, $29 million
Explanation: The Bucs are going to need to get younger at the cornerback position. Brent Grimes is 34 years old and is a free agent. Breeland is a nice piece that comes at a do-able cost and can join forces with Vernon Hargreaves III who Tampa Bay is hoping to develop into a star.

Patrick Robinson, 30 years old, Philadelphia Eagles
PFF Grade: 6th
FA Destination: Philadelphia Eagles
Contract: 3 years, $21 million
Explanation: The Eagles have one of the best General managers in the business. Howie Roseman who will be able to clear enough space to bring back breakout CB Robinson.

T.J. Carrie, 27 years old, Oakland Raiders
PFF Grade: 22nd
FA Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Contract: 3 years, $18 million
Explanation: T.J. Carrie just came off the best season of his career and it can not be understated. He will likely command at least five million annually and this could be one of the reasons the Rams decide to let Johnson walk in free agency. I think Carrie being a year younger, having an arguably more productive season and of course, being cheaper. It makes it obvious the Rams would go this route and acquire another CB via the draft.

Nickell Robey-Coleman, 26 years old, Los Angeles Rams
PFF Grade: 19th
FA Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Contract: 3 years, $16.5 million
Explanation: Arguably one of the best nickel cornerbacks in the league had himself a year for the Rams. The Rams are already expected to lose Trumaine Johnson, but that doesn't mean they are clearing house. I expect the Rams to give Robey-Coleman top nickel cornerback money.

Safeties


LaMarcus Joyner, 27 years old, Los Angeles Rams
PFF Grade: 3rd
FA Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Contract: Franchise Tag - 1 year, $10.8 million/Negotiated into 5 years, $53 million
Explanation: It's a no-brainer for the Rams to tag LaMarcus Joyner to be really honest. The 27-year old has a market value just below what he would get from the franchise tag so the Rams can tag him and work on a long-term deal. I think that's exactly what is bound to happen, the Rams are going to tag and then extend Joyner for five more years. This was the one Ram that didn't have his return in question. He basically started one season at the position and overnight became a superstar. You sign guys like that before they hit free agency.

Tre Boston, 25 years old, Los Angeles Chargers
PFF Grade: 30th
FA Destination: Los Angeles Chargers
Contract: 5 years, $45 million
Explanation: The Chargers struck gold with a one-year deal. Boston is going to get paid, he wants to stay in L.A. and the Chargers luckily have them money to make that happen.

Eric Reid, 26 years old, San Francisco 49ers
PFF Grade: 30th
FA Destination: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Contract: 4 years, $36 million
Explanation: Eric Reid could come back but he's likely gone from the 49ers. The Buccaneers drafted Justin Evans last year and will need another safety to play alongside him due to the fact that Chris Conte simply isn't a starter at this level and T.J. Ward is a free agent. Reid's versatility next to Evans would allow the Buccaneers to finally patch up that secondary a bit.

Morgan Burnett, 29 years old, Green Bay Packers
PFF Grade: 47th
FA Destination: Houston Texans
Contract: 3 years, $24 million
Explanation: I don't see the Packers paying Burnett long-term after they invested a high pick on Josh Jones. I don't care how behind Jones might be, you cannot justify paying Burnett for four more years. Burnett definitely fits with the Texans and would instantly be their best safety to help in the backend of the secondary.

Tyvon Branch, 31 years old, Arizona Cardinals
PFF Grade: 6th
FA Destination: Oakland Raiders
Contract: 1 year, $5 million
Explanation: I don't believe Melifonwu is ready to start at safety or corner for that matter, so let's bring Tyvon Branch back to Oakland and pay him for one year while Melifonwu grows into that role. Branch continues to play at a high level and the secondary I just predicted for the Raiders is starting to look scary.

Bradley McDougald, 27 years old, Seattle Seahawks
PFF Grade: 47th
FA Destination: New Orleans Saints
Contract: 2 years, $6 million
Explanation: The Saints move on from Kenny Vaccaro and add an upgrade over Vonn Bell. McDougald was forced to play more snaps than he expected when Kam Chancellor & Earl Thomas went down with injuries during the season. He's not your top guy or your second guy but McDougald is a good player that works especially for the value. If the Saints can use his services for two years and then find their guy of the future next to Marcus Williams that would be a mission accomplished.

If you go to the rams site it will break down new benefits and incentives. Nothing crazy but they are offering a payment plan now for those interested. Just renewed mine!

http://www.therams.com/tickets/stmrenewals/benefits.html

https://www.dailynews.com/2018/02/19/los-angeles-rams-offseason-analysis-defensive-linemen/

Los Angeles Rams offseason analysis: Defensive linemen
By RICH HAMMOND


Photo by Kyusung Gong

Dominique Easley pursued an ordinary running play along the sideline and never got up. Suddenly, early in training camp, the Rams’ situation along the defensive line looked bleak, and it took a while to improve.

Easley was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Star lineman Aaron Donald missed all of training camp, and the first regular-season game, because of a contract dispute. Eventually, the Rams got things together, and the line turned in a solid, but perhaps less than spectacular, season.

Donald dominated again and won NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors, but the Rams rushed the passer well, yet weren’t always stout against the run.

Donald’s contract remains the major issue going forward, but should the Rams make other changes? As part of an ongoing series, here’s an in-depth glance at the Rams’ situation on the defensive line:

2017 STARTERS: Aaron Donald (41 tackles, 11.0 sacks, five forced fumbles), Michael Brockers (55 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Ethan Westbrooks (23 tackles, 4.0 sacks).

RESERVES: Tanzel Smart (14 tackles), Morgan Fox (19 tackles, 2.5 sacks, one forced fumble), Tyrunn Walker (22 tackles, 1.0 sack, one forced fumble), Dominique Easley (injured all season).

PENDING FREE AGENTS: Easley, Walker.

GRADING 2017

First, some clarification. Because the Rams switched to Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense, players like Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin weren’t considered linemen, even though most of their time was spent close to the line of scrimmage.

Donald would get a grade higher than “A,” if one existed. After he returned from his holdout, it took a couple games to get back into dominant form, but he finished with 11 sacks and became the first interior lineman to win Defensive Player of the Year honors since Warren Sapp in 1999.

Brockers enjoyed something of a breakout season, as he totaled 4.5 sacks a year after he recorded zero. Brockers also had a career-high 55 tackles. Ethan Westbrooks had something of a slow start but played his way into a starting role by the end of the season.

The Rams struggled to find the correct answer in the middle, though. Brockers spent some time at nose tackle, as did Smart and Walker, but there didn’t seem to be a great fit and opponents ran for 4.7 yards per carry against the Rams, the second-highest average in the NFL. GRADE: B

ANALYZING 2018

Donald’s contract situation looms, but mostly as a locker-room situation. The Rams technically could keep Donald through the 2021 season by using franchise tags, but that would get very expensive and likely would risk the alienation of their top player and perhaps damage relationships with other players.

Donald could skip the Rams’ optional offseason program, but in any scenario, he’s unlikely to miss much of training camp (if any) because he would risk losing his (pending) free-agent status next year.

So, Donald will be there, and Brockers seems to be an excellent complement if the Rams can keep him at end on the other side. The Rams also could choose to bring back Easley, who played well in 2016.

The question is what to do in the middle. The Rams could look to the draft or free agency, or give another chance to Smart, a sixth-round draft pick last year who was given a role that was larger than expected and, not surprisingly, was inconsistent.

The Rams need stouter play at nose tackle in order to improve their run defense, but with Smart and Brockers and a possible addition, they should be able to figure it out. LEVEL OF NEED: LOW

Jake Ellenbogen's 2018 Top Offensive Players Free Agency Prediction
February 20, 2018
| By:
Jake Ellenbogen


It's almost that time of year again! Free Agency period is less than a month away and here are my free agency predictions for this year's class. I will be predicting the top five-seven players per position, their future team, contract and listing their Pro Football Focus position grade to give you an index of the players' value. To read the 2017 prediction article I wrote last season click here

Quarterbacks


Kirk Cousins, 29 years old, Washington Redskins
PFF Grade: 19th
FA Destination: New York Jets
Contract: 5 years, $140 million
Explanation: The Redskins have completely failed at locking up Kirk Cousins long-term and so a young up-and-coming team like the Jets, who are building a legitimate defense will step up to the plate and offer Cousins a deal that works for both sides. In doing this, the Jets acquire their franchise QB and can use their sixth-overall pick on the best overall player or even trade down to acquire more talent to build around Cousins. With almost $80 million in cap space and the Jets reportedly willing to offer "whatever it takes" for Cousins. This seems like the fit.

Drew Brees, 39 years old, New Orleans Saints
PFF Grade: 2nd
FA Destination: New Orleans Saints
Contract: 2 years, $50 million
Explanation: Drew Brees' home is in New Orleans, he won a Super Bowl there and he came close to another one this past season after the defense blew a last-second chance at the NFC Championship game. Brees, has unfinished business, the Saints have finally started to build up the defense and have given Brees arguably the most dangerous weapon of his career in OROY RB Alvin Kamara. Teams will try to pay Brees tons of money but in the end, he's staying with the Saints and vying to win one more with Head coach Asshole Face.

Case Keenum, 30 years old, Minnesota Vikings
PFF Grade: 9th
FA Destination: Denver Broncos
Contract: 4 years, $80 million
Explanation: There is a good chance Keenum won't play out his whole contract in Denver. However, I think John Elway is going to want to bring in a guy like Keenum to give the Broncos stability while they develop a young QB from the draft which I think will end up being Baker Mayfield. Similar play styles involved, Keenum would be a good mentor for Mayfield. The Broncos do not have a ton of cap but they can free quite the amount by releasing Aqib Talib and or trading Emmanuel Sanders.

Sam Bradford, 30 years old, Minnesota Vikings
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: Arizona Cardinals
Contract: 2 years, $36 million
Explanation: The Cardinals are reportedly looking for a bridge QB and will not pay deep Kirk Cousin money. That's when Bradford comes in, the Cardinals will likely draft a QB like Lamar Jackson and sit him behind a player like Bradford. The 30-year old QB, looked very impressive week one of the season but lost his job to Case Keenum due to injuries. Arizona is a team that could make a postseason push as long as they solidify or stabilize the QB position.

Teddy Bridgewater, 25 years old, Minnesota Vikings
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: Minnesota Vikings
Contract: 1 year, $11 million
Explanation: The Vikings have got to be the first team I've ever seen with three free agent QB's. Bridgewater is the youngest by five years and is the most likely to return. He hasn't started in a game in two years and that's worrisome but I think the Vikings will be fine with Bridgewater moving forward and the talented UDFA they kept on the active roster almost the whole year in Kyle Sloter.

A.J. McCarron, 27 years old, Cincinnati Bengals
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: Buffalo Bills
Contract: 2 years, $16 million
Explanation: Buffalo for whatever reason does not want and does not appreciate Tyrod Taylor. I firmly expect the Bills to draft a QB and draft one early on by using their two first-round picks to trade up and get their guy. However, a two year deal of McCarron might be the safety net they employ in case their draft day plans do not work. McCarron recently won a grievance case against the Cincinnati Bengals and was awarded free agency. He's not going to receive a huge deal because he has limited playing experience but he is 27 and teams around the league have been interested in his services. He may not be what Bills fans want but he's a placeholder for the bigger picture which starts with the draft.

Running backs


Le'Veon Bell, 26 years old, Pittsburgh Steelers
PFF Grade: 7th
FA Destination: Pittsburgh Steelers
Contract: Franchise Tag - 1 year, $14.5 million
Explanation: The Steelers are in a pickle. They will likely cut safeties, Mike Mitchell & J.J. Wilcox but they still won't be that high above the cap. Bell has been all about the money and will not take a hometown discount under any circumstances. The Steelers are probably going to have to tag Bell because it's obvious that if they don't he will leave and go to the highest bidder. The tag is going to "piss him off" but it's a business and the Steelers will have to slow-play this because as of right now they wouldn't even be able to afford a long-term deal for Bell.

Carlos Hyde, 26 years old, San Francisco 49ers
PFF Grade: 52nd
FA Destination: Seattle Seahawks
Contract: 3 years, $18.5 million
Explanation: The Seahawks are going to need to help Russell Wilson and find him a running back. Luckily Carlos Hyde can be that guy. Seattle has Chris Carson, C.J. Prosise, Mike Davis and JD McKissic but they don't have a go-to-guy. Hyde can be that guy and you don't have to spend premium dollar for him. The years Seattle had a back like Marshawn Lynch, were the days where Wilson didn't have to do everything himself. If the Seahawks want to avoid a total drop-off they will need to help Wilson out and the first step is running back.

Dion Lewis, 27 years old, New England Patriots
PFF Grade: 5th
FA Destination: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Contract: 3 years, $18 million
Explanation: Dion Lewis was great for the New England Patriots this past season and showed not only the ability to change the pace as a back but also the sneaky ability to start in the NFL. The Buccaneers have a lot of cap space and with Charles Sims set to hit free agency and the team expected to move on from Doug Martin, the Buccaneers will likely sign Lewis and draft a running back in the middle rounds of the draft. Lewis excels in pass protection and would be a great fit in Tampa Bay.

Jerick McKinnon, 25 years old, Minnesota Vikings
PFF Grade: 8th
FA Destination: New York Giants
Contract: 4 years, $17 million
Explanation: The Giants have been looking far and wide for their go-to RB. General manager Dave Gettleman has made it known he wants Eli Manning to run the franchise at QB for the next few years and if that's going to happen he's going to need a do-it-all back like McKinnon. One of the top young receiving backs, homerun threats and of course pass protectors. McKinnon has the familiarity with Pat Shurmur who worked with him and took him to new heights last season in relief of injured rookie RB Dalvin Cook. It's become obvious McKinnon will not take a backseat and wants to be the guy. In New York, he can be just that. This also would allow the Giants to allocate their rare number two overall pick on a future franchise QB to sit behind Manning.

Isaiah Crowell, 25 years old, Cleveland Browns
PFF Grade: 47th
FA Destination: San Francisco 49ers
Contract: 3 years, $12 million
Explanation: The 25-year old RB has had success in measly Cleveland. He ran into a scuffle with his coach Hue Jackson and there is no way he returns. The 49ers are expected to lose Carlos Hyde and at 25, for someone that has shown the ability to go over the 1,000-yard mark, Crowell offers intriguing upside. It's not the best fit in the world but the 49ers should be in the market for a back and I think Crowell might be a little under the radar and could make for a steal of a pickup. It's also worth noting that Head coach Kyle Shanahan worked with Crowell in Cleveland during his rookie season.

LeGarrette Blount, 31 years old, Philadelphia Eagles
PFF Grade: 41st
FA Destination: Buffalo Bills
Contract: 1 year, $3.7 million
Explanation: At this point in LeGarrette Blount's career he is going to only want to go to a playoff contender. The Bills made the playoffs last year. I think with LeSean McCoy was great as he is, the Bills would be smart to find him a back that can take over and give him a breather here and there. I don't think the dual fullback thing works and that's why Blount is a good fit. He proved he had no issue being in a committee backfield this year in order to win a Super Bowl.

Jeremy Hill, 25 years old, Cincinnati Bengals
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: New England Patriots
Contract: 1 year, $3 million
Explanation: At 25 years of age, Jeremy Hill has already had a career in which he went from the top guy who tallied almost 30 touchdowns in his first three seasons to not even rushing for 200 yards this past season. He's talented and maybe has just fallen out of favor of the coaches, that doesn't mean the Patriots who are expected to lose Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis to free agency wouldn't want him. Hill is a young talent with a successful past. He could be another revitalizing project for New England.

Wide receivers


Jarvis Landry, 25 years old, Miami Dolphins
PFF Grade: 19th
FA Destination: Chicago Bears
Contract: 5 years, $73 million
Explanation: Jarvis Landry is 25 years of age and would probably like to go to a team and be the guy at receiver for a young QB like Mitch Trubisky. The Bears have a new Head coach, cap space and plenty of targets to go around. Landry may shoot for a team like the Titans or Ravens but I think the Bears are the best fit and have a chance to really turn it around under Head coach Matt Nagy.

Allen Robinson, 24 years old, Jacksonville Jaguars
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: Jacksonville Jaguars
Contract: Franchise Tag - $15.6 million
Explanation: The Jaguars almost went to the Super Bowl with no receiver talent quite like Allen Robinson on the field. Robinson tore his ACL after making his first catch of the season during opening day. At 24-years old and the amount of talent Robinson possesses, he could easily be in line for a huge payday. The Jaguars have already been reported that they will tag Robinson if no long-term deal is agreed upon.

Sammy Watkins, 24 years old, Los Angeles Rams
PFF Grade: 41st
FA Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Contract: 5 years, $65 million
Explanation: I am really not a fan of giving Watkins a long-term deal like this but I think this the direction the Rams are going if the recent report of Trumaine Johnson's departure is true. If the Rams indeed let Trumaine Johnson walk in free agency that should be an indicator they prioritized Sammy Watkins and LaMarcus Joyner. Watkins is a very talented receiver and is 24 years old but he will have a lot to live up to if and when this contract is signed.

Marqise Lee, 26 years old, Jacksonville Jaguars
PFF Grade: 37th
FA Destination: Baltimore Ravens
Contract: 4 years, $28 million
Explanation: The Ravens are in dire need of receiver help. Mike Wallace is about to leave for free agency, Jeremy Maclin is a shell of his former self and Breshad Perriman has been a complete bust. The Ravens will likely want to delve into the top dollar WR market but they really can't afford it if they want to bring back Ryan Jensen. I think Lee becomes a great for the Ravens who has started to find his stride in his career and could surprise people and become a cheap number one option. Baltimore will likely double dip with a free agent and a draft pick at the receiver position.

Paul Richardson, 25 years old, Seattle Seahawks
PFF Grade: 59th
FA Destination: Carolina Panthers
Contract: 3 years, $21 million
Explanation: The Panthers traded away Kelvin Benjamin during this past season and really don't have much left at the receiver position besides Devin Funchess. Paul Richardson is a solid player that offers upside, consistency and big-play ability. Those are three things Cam Newton would love in a new receiver. Richardson will likely not return to Seattle after the Seahawks set their max for Richardson.

Jordan Matthews, 25 years old, Buffalo Bills
PFF Grade: 113th
FA Destination: Dallas Cowboys
Contract: 2 years, $10 million
Explanation: This is another team that needs some receiver help. Dez Bryant is a shell of his former self and continues to struggle as a receiver, Terrance Williams is still an inconsistent receiver and Brice Butler is set to leave in free agency. I don't know what the plan is with Jordan Matthews for Buffalo but I doubt he is staying after a nightmare season. Matthews has shown in the past he has legitimate high-end number two receiver and even low-end number one receiver potential. He dealt with multiple injuries and was unable to truly build up his stock. Still, at 25, Matthews is well known as someone who can make a defense pay, Dallas saw that up close and personal. The Cowboys grab a legit receiver and acquire him for a bargain deal after his stock plummets.

Terrelle Pryor, 28 years old, Washington Redskins
PFF Grade: 109th
FA Destination: Cleveland Browns
Contract: 1 year, $4.8 million
Explanation: 2017 showed us something we all saw coming, Terrelle Pryor should have stayed in Cleveland. Another nightmare scenario for another receiver took him out of the spotlight and into the unknown and obscurity. Pryor was a fun story and was turning into a star receiver after making the switch from QB but after the 2016 season he put a high price on himself and was forced to take a prove-it deal with the Redskins. The prove-it deal backfired and now his stock is as low as it's been. The only way to save his career is to go back to where it all ascended, with the Browns and Hue Jackson.

Tight ends


Tyler Eifert, 27 years old, Cincinnati Bengals
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: Detroit Lions
Contract: 3 years, $23 million
Explanation: Eifert has some injury concerns for sure, but his age and upside will likely get him a legitimate high-end TE type of deal. The Lions have been riding Eric Ebron since they drafted him early in the first round back in the 2014 draft. Unfortunately, Ebron has been a bust and the Lions can save around eight million in cap space if they cut him. Eifert is a top-five TE when healthy and would only add more to the potentially lethal Detroit offense.

Trey Burton, 26 years old, Philadelphia Eagles
PFF Grade: 13th
FA Destination: Seattle Seahawks
Contract: 3 years, $21 million
Explanation: Trey Burton has played second-fiddle to Zach Ertz in Philadelphia and that is not expected to continue. Burton is hitting free agency in what is a stronger class than last year but not as youthful. Burton could be looking at a starting job and with the Seahawks likely to part with Jimmy Graham, Burton would be able to come in and right away become a starter.

Jimmy Graham, 31 years old, Seattle Seahawks
PFF Grade: 33rd
FA Destination: Houston Texans
Contract: 2 years, $12 million
Explanation: The Texans have the cap to grab Graham for two years and run a two tight end set with him and Fiedorowicz. He still has big-play ability and the Texans like to air it down the field with Deshaun Watson. It can't hurt to add another weapon to Watson's arsenal for when he comes back from his ACL tear.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 25 years old, New York Jets
PFF Grade: 44th
FA Destination: New York Jets
Contract: 3 years, $13 million
Explanation: Seferian-Jenkins just turned down a 2 year and $8 million deal but the two sides are expected to come to terms on a deal. The Jets found a steal in Seferian-Jenkins who went through some issues off the field but has started to turn it all around and at 25, he has a chance to develop into a really good tight end. The Jets will give him a little bit more money and another year to make sure they lock him up.

Benjamin Watson, 37 years old, Baltimore Ravens
PFF Grade: 56th
FA Destination: New England Patriots
Contract: 1 year, $3.7 million
Explanation: Ben Watson started with the Patriots and unfortunately he was overshadowed for the majority of his career. He was always considered to be a blocking tight end but that was partly due to the fact he was never really given a chance to be the go-to-guy. Watson is still very talented and received for more yards than any tight end in this free agent class this past season. I know people throw out the idea that Rob Gronkowski is retiring but I don't buy it. I think the Patriots will bring back Watson who spent six years in New England and pair him with Gronk for one year.

Offensive linemen
SMLXL

LT Nate Solder, 29 years old, New England Patriots
PFF Grade: 32nd
FA Destination: New England Patriots
Contract: 2 years, $26 million
Explanation: For a while now it's been a battle for Nate Solder. His son is battling cancer and Solder has considered retirement. I do not see him leaving New England and I don't see him staying much longer either. Nonetheless, the Patriots get a short-term deal done with their blindside protector.

LG Andrew Norwell, 26 years old, Carolina Panthers
PFF Grade: 3rd
FA Destination: New York Giants
Contract: 5 years, $60 million
Explanation: The Giants are likely going all in to secure Andrew Norwell. GM Dave Gettleman knows him from Carolina and it's looking likely that guard Justin Pugh will join his former college HC Doug Marrone and former NFL HC Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville. Norwell is by far the best offensive lineman in this free agency class and the Giants are the favorite to land him.

LG Justin Pugh, 27 years old, New York Giants
PFF Grade: 52nd
FA Destination: Jacksonville Jaguars
Contract: 4 years, $28 million
Explanation: See above. In all seriousness though, Pugh is still a great player and he is not returning to the Giants. The reuniting of Pugh, Marrone and Coughlin is going to be the easiest prediction of the 2018 free agency. Jaguars can only get better on the offensive line.

C Ryan Jensen, 26 years old, Baltimore Ravens
PFF Grade: 9th
FA Destination: New York Jets
Contract: 5 years, $47 million
Explanation: The Jets earlier in this article were projected by me to get Kirk Cousins. They are going to need to give him some protection. The Jets offensive line can be upgraded but especially the center position. Well, here's a nasty mean streak of a center Ryan Jensen to beef the Jets up front.

C Weston Richburg, 26 years old, New York Giants
PFF Grade: N/A
FA Destination: Baltimore Ravens
Contract: 2 years, $10 million
Explanation: The Ravens lose Jensen but they are able to stay in their price range and acquire a young talent that is likely much better than his price tag shows. Richburg has battled injury and has been on a bad offensive line in what has been his whole career. Whoever gets Richburg is getting a potential steal, but that all depends on how healthy he stays.

C John Sullivan, 32 years old, Los Angeles Rams
PFF Grade: 10th
FA Destination: Los Angeles Rams
Contract: 1 year, $3 million
Explanation: The Rams could really consider drafting or targeting someone like Weston Richburg. However, I expect this coaching staff to ride the lightning with Sullivan, Austin Blythe and Jake Eldrenkamp. The Rams offensive line ascended last season with the addition of OL coach Aaron Kromer but let's not kid ourselves, John Sullivan and Andrew Whitworth had a lot to do with that. I think the Rams like Blythe and Sullivan for another season. Sullivan had a good year last year and there is no reason to move on from him until he really shows his age and proves he isn't the answer anymore.

RG Josh Kline, 28 years old, Tennessee Titans
PFF Grade: 22nd
FA Destination: Indianapolis Colts
Contract: 3 years, $30 million
Explanation: The Colts actually have a decent group of talent on the offensive line but the right side is a mess. If Andrew Luck is coming back he needs to be protected. Josh Kline had a really good year in Tennessee and is going to make some money this off-season. Luckily for the Colts, they have plenty of cap room to bring in Kline and steal him away from their division rivals.

I know it's probably too early for this - but that's what this forum is for! - who do you guys think the most likely trade down partners will be if we decide to go that route? What do you think we can get in a trade down? What have people historically gotten?

For this exercise, I'm ruling out trading down for a future pick as our team has too many holes (expecting FA loses) to make that seem a reasonable course of action.

It seems to me we could possibly pick up (conservatively) at least a 3rd and drop to the end of the 1st round here. A similar trade was made when the Broncos sent their 1st and 3rd in 2016 to the Seahawks for the 26th pick (Broncos were picking 31st in the first round that year and the third rounder was late). In that scenario, a QB dropped to a hungry team and with this crop of QBs this year, I could see a similar scenario play out too.

Whatcha think?

These are excerpts. To read the whole article click the link below.
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https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/19/quarterback-free-agency-draft-peter-king-mmqb

The Offseason of Quarterback Movement: Early Guesses on Who Goes Where in Free Agency, Draft
By Peter King


GETTY IMAGES (6)

Free agency is 24 years old. Since the dawn of it, I don’t remember a year (because there hasn’t been one) with the same combined level of depth at quarterback in the free market and in the draft.

It’s amazing, really. We could see four quarterbacks (Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield) picked in the top 10 in the April draft. By the end of April, six of the NFL’s 12 top-rated quarterbacks from 2017 could either move on or begin to be moved out by their teams.

Alex Smith (first, with a 104.7 rating) will be traded from Kansas City to Washington, and will sign a four-year contract extension when the new league year begins March 14 … Drew Brees (second, 103.9) will likely re-sign with the Saints, but he’s free to sign anywhere come the start of free agency on March 14 … Case Keenum (seventh, 98.3) hopes to parlay a career year into a starting job and multiyear contract …

Philip Rivers (ninth, 96.0) turns 37 this year, and could see the Chargers draft his heir, even coming off a very good year … Josh McCown (11th, 94.5) will be 39 in July, but coming off a career year, he could keep the seat warm for the Jets or another team drafting a quarterback of the future … Kirk Cousins (12th, 93.9) will be the most attractive vet on the street—assuming Washington doesn’t try to franchise him and trade him, which is possible but not likely.

So, in my first column this winter looking ahead to the offseason, I’m going to do the impossible: guess where each available quarterback will land. On May 1, after free agency and the draft, we’ll all have a good laugh over this column. Because I’ll be wrong on the vast majority, and maybe all. But we’ll go in order, and we’ll go by need.

DESPERATE NEED

Denver: Kirk Cousins. GM John Elway has made one mega-signing in his tenure: Peyton Manning, in 2012, when Elway was in desperate quarterback straits. To solve this problem again, I say Elway goes big. Cousins isn’t flawless, but he’s got seven or eight prime years left (he’s 29), and has put a premium on going somewhere he can win, somewhere with a good defense, and somewhere he can walk into the building every day excited about going to work.

The Broncos, coming off a 5-11 year, haven’t had back-to-back losing seasons since 1971 and 1972, and my bet is on Elway, even at the ridiculous sum of something like $30 million a year, going hard after Cousins to make sure he doesn’t have to keep worrying about the position.

In the last two years, Denver has employed the 23rd- and 29th-rated quarterback, Trevor Siemian. Elway’s had enough of mediocrity. One other thing that will play a role: Elway’s willingness to whack a couple of big-ticket defenders, Aqib Talib and Derek Wolfe, from a tight cap situation. It could play a role in clearing enough cap room to fit Cousins onto the roster.

Arizona: A.J. McCarron. This would, of course, break Hue Jackson’s heart. But I just think the alternatives for McCarron are these: Go to Cleveland, and risk the Browns drafting a quarterback high in the first round, and risk being in the same place he was in Cincinnati, behind Andy Dalton, for the next three or four years … or go to Arizona (or another spot that won’t draft a passer high) and be handed the starting job on a team with a playoff defense.

Not a very tough choice in my mind. Of course, when you’re guessing, no choice is very hard. Also: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona focus on Sam Bradford and pick a rookie in the first or second round to supplement him.

Cleveland: Sam Darnold and Sam Bradford. The reason Browns GM John Dorsey wanted Alex Smith, or even McCarron or another veteran, is because he wants to be competitive from the start this season. You sign Bradford because you know as long as he stays healthy (Ten days? Ten games?), he’s a top-12-caliber quarterback.

But he’s played more than seven games in just two of the last five seasons, and so the Browns won’t be guaranteed anything except some sleepless nights if they sign Bradford. But no matter which veteran Cleveland gets (and McCarron is certainly a strong prospect here), Dorsey will backstop with a rookie, and Darnold, who needs a large dose of development, would be fine with a year or more of clipboard-holding.

New York Jets: Baker Mayfield and Josh McCown. To say that McCown made a positive impact on the Jets in his gap year would be a major understatement. He’s a selfless coach on the field, and he would love to spend 2018 doing what he tried to do in 2014 in Cleveland, when he was there to usher Johnny Manziel into the ranks of respectable NFL starter. We know what happened then, and it wasn’t McCown’s fault. Mayfield is a marvelous talent, if a bit of a wild colt. He’d be a great fit with McCown and new and imaginative offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates.

And McCown can play (combined 90.8 rating over his last three seasons) until Mayfield’s ready. Now, here’s the other thing about the Jets. Everyone in the league knows they love Cousins, will hotly pursue Cousins, and could get Cousins. It would not surprise me at all. Bates would be a perfect teacher for him, because he has so much in common with his mentors in Washington, particularly Kyle Shanahan. So if I did this exercise two weeks from now, who knows? I could give Keenum to Denver and Cousins to the Jets.

SIGNIFICANT NEED

New Orleans: Drew Brees and Luke Falk. I can’t see Brees, 39, going elsewhere. I see him playing out his last two or three years (or more) with Asshole Face, particularly with the Saints being on the cusp of another competitive run. Falk? Precision passer (69, 70, 67 percent accurate in his last three years at Washington State) who could use some development.

You know who wouldn’t surprise me here? Tyrod Taylor. I think Payton could do very good things with him. By the way, I hear Payton loves Mayfield too. Hard to imagine, though, that Payton and GM Mickey Loomis could move up high enough from their first-round slot (27th overall) to get in position to get Mayfield.

New York Giants: Josh Allen. It could be Darnold or Josh Rosen too, obviously. Much smarter NFLers than me told me in the last few days that they think GM Dave Gettleman will pass on a quarterback to fill another major need at number two overall, and I don’t doubt it.

But the Giants have a 37-year-old quarterback who has been average at best for the past six years, and I don’t see New York passing on a good quarterback crop when the chance to get the next long-termer is there. Allen’s the kind of big, strong, developmental player (though his accuracy could be a big issue) who would be a good pupil under Eli Manning and Pat Shurmur for the next couple of years. Or less.

Minnesota: Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater. This is too safe. I sort of hate it. Keenum will likely be more inclined to go somewhere with no summer competition for the starting job (Buffalo?), but he also knows his team intimately here, and he knows (or should know) how he’d flourish under new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. Bridgewater … I have no idea. What do you make of a guy who hasn’t played for two years, and who was not a sure long-term thing the last time he played? Seems the comfort-level play for him would be to stay for an incentive-laden deal.

Buffalo: Josh Rosen. The musical chairs are getting scarce. This could be a McCarron, Keenum or Bradford spot too. If Denver gets Cousins, I could see Elway dealing his one (fifth overall) for Buffalo’s two first-round picks (21, 22) and another high pick this year or next—I could see Tampa Bay, Chicago, Oakland and San Francisco at seven through 10 in round one doing the same—to allow Buffalo to jump up and get a good quarterback prospect.

NEED

New England: Kyle Lauletta. I write about the Pats and Lauletta later in the column. But this is a year New England has to do what it did in 2014: find the heir to Tom Brady, who turns 41 in August. I can see the future now. In February 2022, I’m writing this column, and I’m writing new Patriots head coach Josh McDaniels saying, “Well, we know Tom just won the MVP, and he looks great even though he’s 45, but we’ve got to look out for the future too.”

Jacksonville: Mason Rudolph. The Jags will say all the right things about Blake Bortles, and actually mean a few of them. But they’ve got to backstop the position. Rudolph should still be there late in round one.

KEEPING THEIR EYES OPEN

Baltimore: Lamar Jackson. Joe Flacco’s last three years: 20-22, 52 touchdowns, 40 picks. Meh. Time to look around, and the versatile Jackson could be a weapon even when he’s not an every-down quarterback.

Miami: Tyrod Taylor. Never know about Ryan Tannehill, from either an injury or a talent perspective. Taylor will fare well under mechanics specialist Adam Gase.

LA Chargers: Mike White. Wild guess. Good arm. The Chargers might find a third-rounder this year they believe is a good student of the game who could learn well from Philip Rivers for the next two or three years.

So Nick Foles stays in Philadelphia, Jacoby Brissett stays in Indianapolis. I think I’ve answered all your questions now. Also, if you’d like, I could advise you on some really great Lotto numbers I’ve got for tonight.
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I GET THE SAQUON BARKLEY HYPE. I DON’T GET PICKING A BACK THAT HIGH

The recent history of rookie running backs suggests to me that picking Barkley, the Penn State star and very highly rated running back, in the top five would be … well, I won’t call it a mistake. Because a great player is a great player. But I am saying the history of this position shows a team might be much better off solving its needs at another position and getting the back later in the draft.

2017: Offensive rookie of the year Alvin Kamara was the 67th overall pick, the fifth back selected. NFL rushing champion Kareem Hunt was the 86thoverall pick, the sixth back taken.

2016: Jordan Howard, the 10th back chosen and 150th overall pick, finished second in rushing as a rookie. The 13th back picked, Alex Collins, has developed into the Ravens’ number one and a stalwart back.

2015: Seventh running back picked: David Johnson (86th overall), who led the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2016 with 2,118 … Thirteenth running back picked: Jay Ajayi, 149th overall.

2014: Devonta Freeman (ninth back picked, 103rd overall) is the Falcons’ franchise back.

And so on.

ESPN’s Todd McShay has Barkley as his highest-rated player in the draft. “Adrian Peterson is the last back I gave a higher grade to,” McShay told me. “But I hear you. The question I would ask is, say I needed a pass-rusher—really needed one. Would I pass on [North Carolina State’s] Bradley Chubb to take Barkley in the top five, then try to get a rusher near the top of the second round? If you’re picking 33, 35, 38 [overall], I can tell you that you’ll have a chance to get a running back with a first-round grade who will be very productive for you. But the pass-rushers may be gone by then.”

I’m not ignoring the greatness of Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley, all of whom were top-10 picks and have played great. But the average overall pick for Kamara, Hunt and David Johnson—each of whom are either franchise backs or verging on that title—was number 80. I just think smart teams can solve franchise-player needs high in the first round elsewhere, and get a very good back down the line. History backs it up.
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THINGS I THINK I THINK

1. I think if you want to know why Larry Fitzgerald, who will return for a 15th season with a new coach and quarterback in 2018 in Arizona, should be judged as one of the best receivers ever—say, certainly in the top five—consider these nuggets:

• If he has a normal season in 2018 based on recent history, he’ll finish next year with about 200 more receptions than any wideout who ever played other than Rice, and with 500 or so more receiving yards than anyone who ever played, save Rice.

• Rice had Steve Young or Joe Montana as his quarterback in 85 percent of his career starts. Fitzgerald had Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer for 51 percent of his career starts.

• In the five seasons he’s played since turning 30, Fitzgerald has missed three games due to injury (all in 2014).

2. I think—and have for a year now—that 2017 was not going to be Fitzgerald’s last year. Too many footprints he wants to leave in the sand. When the NFL elects its 100th anniversary team in three years, my bet is that Fitzgerald, who has significant respect for history and loves to be a major part of it, would want badly to be one of the four wide receivers on that team. Who would they be? Just a guess: Don Hutson, Jerry Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, and either Steve Largent or Randy Moss. Could be different, of course, because the candidate list at that position will be very strong.

3. I think it appears interim Panthers general manager Marty Hurney is the favorite to take over the full-time Carolina GM job after being cleared by the NFL of harassment claims by his ex-wife. Which is the best decision the team could make. With Hurney free of the claims now, and judged innocent, his role as the favorite for the permanent job should not be affected.

4. I think the best news of the week was Ryan Shazier sitting in on scouting meetings with the Steelers. What happened to him was awful. What he could do with his life is powerful, whether in football or something else. Good for the Steelers, paving the way for him to transition to an off-field football life if that’s what Shazier chooses.

5. I think the best TV fit for Peyton Manning might be FOX—and as the New York Post’sAndrew Marchand reported, FOX and ESPN both want him for weeknight prime-time games this year—for three reasons.

• The FOX deal is for 11 games a year, and it’s on Thursday nights, which means Manning could dip his toe in the water of TV without being married to it for a long season. Manning could be home every week in Denver by 3 a.m. Mountain Time Friday, and not leave again until Tuesday evening, if he chooses. And his work would be 11 weeks long, not 19 or 20 including playoffs.

• Manning, I believe, eventually wants to be an Elway or a Jeter, a guy who runs his own team. This would allow him to fact-find with good coaches and GMs for free, and allow him to see the teams that do it the right way and the teams that do it wrong. Jon Gruden can tell him how much you can learn by sitting in on productions meetings with the coaches and players you’ll either be trying to beat in a couple of years—or trying to hire.

• Though I don’t think Manning wants to be a TV guy, this is a low-commitment way that will allow him to find that out for sure.

6. I think it’s very hard for me to imagine Washington giving Kirk Cousins the franchise tag for one simple reason: When you put a franchise tag on a player, you intend to employ him at that rate of pay for the season. Washington intends to employ Alex Smith as it quarterback for 2018 and beyond. So if the team does tag Cousins, he would immediately file a grievance to block it, as our Albert Breer reported Thursday. And Cousins would win easily.

7. I think I read the rant of former WFAN talk-show host Mike Francesa about the Jason Kelce expletive-peppered speech during the Eagles’ Super Bowl celebration. The Francesa take (he was angry that Kelce cursed) is one of the most get-off-my-lawn things I’ve heard in a while. Said Francesa on WOR in New York: “You ever heard about winning like a champion?

Somebody should have taken a hook and pulled him off … I was in the car when I heard it and people were replaying it like it was the greatest thing in the world. How dumb are you to replay that? I wouldn’t give that one second airtime … If I were the owner of the team, I’d cut him.” I do agree with Francesa that the cursing was over the top, and at time slightly cringe-inducing. But the rest—seriously?

8. I think, not that Francesa would know this, but Jason Kelce was the NFL’s first-team All-Pro center in 2017. He’s an unquestioned team leader. He’s got the 10th-highest salary-cap number for centers in 2018, which means he’s a player of great value. If Jeff Lurie cut Jason Kelce, players on that team would be beyond furious—as would coach Doug Pederson. Would the Eagles have been better with Kelce not f-bombing the speech? Of course. Cutting him? Knee-jerk to the max. But hey, it’s a hot take.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/02/19/directv-raises-price-for-nfl-sunday-ticket/

DirecTV raises price for NFL Sunday Ticket
Posted by Michael David Smith on February 19, 2018

Being a hard-core NFL fan is getting more expensive.

DirecTV is raising prices on its NFL Sunday Ticket package, which is the only way to watch every NFL game. The retail price will reach an all-time high of $293.94 in 2018, with the package that includes Red Zone Channel increasing to $395.95.

Many subscribers don’t pay full price, as DirecTV often offers discounts to entice new subscribers, or to convince current subscribers to renew. But the base price of the package is higher than ever.

And that may point to the future of the NFL on television: For many years, the NFL has thrived by reaching as broad an audience as possible. But with audiences shrinking the last two years and advertising revenue down last year, the league may seek to make more money off fans who are paying more money to see games. That includes fans who buy the Sunday Ticket package and fans who pay for the cable Red Zone Channel.

Although there were scattered reports of people canceling Sunday Ticket last year to protest players protesting during the national anthem, DirecTV can likely continue to raise Sunday Ticket prices for some time and lose few subscribers. It remains a popular package, one that millions of fans think is well worth a few hundred dollars a year.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/13/los-angeles-rams-offseason-analysis-wide-receivers/

Los Angeles Rams offseason analysis: Wide receivers
By RICH HAMMOND


AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

The Rams did a near-total renovation of their group of receivers last year, and it worked quite well. It didn’t bring long-term stability, though, so some decisions remain in the near future.

Quarterback Jared Goff thrived in large part because he had a trio of quality receivers, none of whom was on the Rams’ roster in 2016, when their top threats were the inconsistent Kenny Britt, Brian Quick and Tavon Austin.

The Rams face a compelling decision over the next couple weeks with Sammy Watkins, who underwhelmed in 2017 after a high-profile trade.

Watkins is set to become an unrestricted free agent next month, so should the Rams give it another try with him? As part of an ongoing series, here’s an in-depth glance at the Rams’ situation at receiver:

2017 STARTERS: Cooper Kupp (62 receptions, 869 yards, five touchdowns), Robert Woods (56 receptions, 781 yards, five touchdowns), Sammy Watkins (39 receptions, 593 yards, eight touchdowns).

RESERVES: Josh Reynolds (11 receptions, 104 yards, one touchdown), Pharoh Cooper (11 receptions, 84 yards, 0 touchdowns), Mike Thomas (5 receptions, 93 yards, 0 touchdowns).

PENDING FREE AGENTS: Watkins.

GRADING 2017
Even deep into training camp, this position seemed a little unsteady. The Rams were set to rely on Woods as their No. 1 receiver and Tavon Austin as their primary deep threat, and both players seemed ill-suited for those roles. Then came Watkins, in a late-camp trade with Buffalo.

Watkins had a complicated season. By no means was it a statistical success, given that he finished fourth on the team in catches and receiving yards, but there was a value to what Watkins brought. He field-stretching speed drew the attention of defenders and opened up things underneath for Woods and Kupp. Woods worked the sidelines and Kupp worked the middle of the field, and both thrived.

Kupp, a boom-or-bust third-round draft pick, had issues with drops at times but also made some dynamic catches and clearly earned Goff’s trust.

A significant nod also should go to running back Todd Gurley, who often was the Rams’ top target because of his ability to catch and make defenders miss in the open field. And an extra nod to Woods, whose run-blocking ability opened up things for Gurley on the ground. GRADE: B+

ANALYZING 2018
Given how well things went in 2017, the Rams would be wise to keep things static at receiver and bring back this entire group. That probably means applying the franchise-player tag to Watkins, who would be free to sign elsewhere if the Rams don’t take action.

It’s probably not wise to sign Watkins to a long-term contract. The Rams still need to see how he can fit with Goff and within the offense, and it’s fair to say Watkins got an “incomplete” grade in 2017. If Goff and Watkins can improve their chemistry, the Rams’ pass game might be even better in 2018.

The Rams likely will make a move and cut Austin, who technically remains a receiver but played almost no part in the pass game this season. Austin’s small role in the offense in 2017 can easily be filled by Pharoh Cooper, who took a star turn this season as a returner.

Woods, likely, will remain as steady and productive as ever, but the Rams will look for more from Kupp. His circus catches are remarkable, but consistency remains a bit of an issue. LEVEL OF NEED: MEDIUM

Just heard Cushing was going to be available. Was wondering if you guys thought he would be a fit in Phillip's defense. He did go to USC. Maybe he wants to come home. Just a thought !

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/02/18/nfl-should-open-trade-window-earlier/

NFL should open trade window earlier

The window for making trade in the NFL closes on the Tuesday after Week Eight. It opens on the first day of the league year.

It should open sooner than that.

That’s not simply because teams should have the ability at any time to make a trade (although they should). It’s because there’s no reason not to allow teams to make trades after the postseason has ended.

Every year, the waiver period begins the day after the Super Bowl. That’s when teams should be able to make trades, too.

Currently, teams are allowed to negotiate trades whenever they want. They’re allowed to tentatively complete negotiations. They’re not allowed to finalize trades until the first day of the league year, which this year lands on March 14.

Consider the situation in which Washington currently finds itself. A deal is in place to acquire quarterback Alex Smith from the Chiefs. But if the Chiefs get a better offer before March 14, they can accept that offer without consequence.

This could leave Washington in a major bind, since a renege by the Chiefs could occur after Washington has sacrificed its ability to apply the franchise tag to Kirk Cousins. Apart from the question of whether a decision to tag Cousins as protection against the Smith trade falling through would survive a grievance, Washington should be able to finalize the trade before making a final decision on whether to tag Cousins.

It’s a defect in the calendar that can affect any team, in any year. A tentative trade is arranged, making a team not inclined to tag a looming free agent. The team doesn’t tag the free agent, the trade falls through, and the team is screwed.

So why not allow teams to make trades as of the day after the Super Bowl? There’s no reason to make teams wait until the middle of March to make trades official, and there’s every reason to let teams formally complete trades before someone gets cold feet.

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angele...explain-the-rams-unprecedented-rise-in-points

Five stats that explain the Rams' unprecedented points rise
Alden Gonzalez


Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Top Turnarounds

Rams coach Sean McVay engineered an offense that had the biggest turnaround in NFL history. The three teams with the highest points-per-game increase from the previous season since 1970:

TEAM/ INCREASE/ W-L
2017 Rams/ +15.9/ 11-5
1999 Rams/ +15.1/ 13-3
1975 Colts/ +14.6/ 10-4

Elias Sports Bureau

Their season ended nearly six weeks ago, and the turnaround still feels shocking. In one year, the Los Angeles Rams went from last in the NFL in points to first. The only other team to do that was the 1965 San Francisco 49ers, who played in the final season without a Super Bowl.

And it wasn't just some outlier bad year that the 2017 Rams improved upon. The Rams fielded one of the NFL's worst offenses for a decade, the 2016 version only the latest in what seemed like a never-ending cycle of despondency.

Then along came a rookie head coach named Sean McVay, and voilà, first. First. The Rams went from a league-worst 14.0 points per game under Jeff Fisher in 2016 to a league-best 29.9 points per game under McVay in 2017. The 15.9-point year-to-year increase is the largest in NFL history, topping the previous mark of 15.1 points by the 1999 Rams team that played in St. Louis. Here are five key team stats that help illustrate how the Rams pulled off their miraculous, unprecedented turnaround.

Interception rate: "It's all about the ball." McVay repeated that phrase in a lot of meetings last year, and his players took it to heart. More specifically, Jared Goff took it to heart. With Goff and Case Keenum as the starting quarterbacks in 2016, the Rams threw an interception on 3.7 percent of their passing attempts, accounting for the second-worst rate in the NFL.

In 2017, with Goff taking almost every snap for the first 15 regular-season games, the Rams had a 1.4 percent interception rate that was tied for the NFL's best. Goff did a nice job going through his progressions and not forcing downfield throws. If someone wasn't open, he could usually just dump it off to Todd Gurley as a checkdown option. It also helped that the Rams allowed contact to their quarterback only 58 times -- 26 fewer than the previous season.


Jared Goff threw interceptions on 1.5 percent of his passes in 2017. As a rookie in 2016, his interception percentage was 3.4. Jim Brown/USA TODAY Sports

First-down yardage: Another phrase McVay will often use is "third-and-manageables," which means third-down attempts from a reasonable distance (ideally within 5 yards). First-down success is crucial for that, and the Rams made major strides there, too. In 2016, they averaged an NFL-worst 4.50 yards on first down. In 2017, they averaged 5.54 yards on first down, seventh in the league. Thanks in large part to that, the Rams picked up 311 first downs in 2017, 66 more than the previous season.

Rushing yards before contact: This stat tells you everything you need to know about the improvement on the offensive line, and thus why Gurley went from one of the least productive running backs in NFL history to a legitimate MVP candidate. The Rams accumulated 683 rushing yards before contact in 2016, the lowest in the NFL. In 2017, they nearly doubled that with 1,206 yards before first contact, ranked fifth.

The Rams benefited from continuity along their offensive line, their five starters playing almost every snap for the first 15 games (before most starters sat in the regular-season finale). They also had a lot more talent, thanks to the additions of left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan.

Yards after the catch: This stat helps capture McVay's playcalling brilliance. Rams receivers averaged 5.18 yards after the catch per reception in 2016, which ranked 12th. Not bad, right? Well, in 2017, it was 6.60 average yards after the catch, the most in the NFL by a wide margin. Sure, Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbeeand Gerald Everett were all adept at making defenders miss in space.

But this stat mostly shows us how wide open they were, whether it was Gurley in the screen game, Woods and Kupp down the middle of the field or, at times, Watkins over the top off play-action. Goff's passer rating went from 63.6 as a rookie to 100.5 as a second-year quarterback. The degree of difficulty on his throws diminished significantly.

Average starting position: The Rams' offense deservedly gets a lot of credit for the team's meteoric rise in points, but so should a defense that generated a lot of turnovers and a special-teams unit that sent four players to the Pro Bowl. The Rams forced 28 turnovers in 2017, fifth most in the NFL and 10 more than the previous season.

Pharoh Cooper averaged 27.41 yards per kickoff return (first in the NFL) and 12.47 yards per punt return (second). Thanks to all that, the Rams, on average, began their offensive drives 67.8 yards away from the end zone, second best in the NFL. The previous season, they needed an average of 72.6 yards to reach the end zone, which ranked 22nd.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...choice-peyton-manning-with-one-going-all-out/

Two networks reportedly want 'top choice' Peyton Manning, with one going all-out

Everyone wants a piece of Peyton Manning, but he might not be willing to sell the pie in the first place. According to a report from the New York Post, Manning is "reluctant" to join the broadcast booth, despite receiving what amounts to a full-court press from both FOX and ESPN.

Both networks have high-profile jobs to fill: FOX recently purchased the rights to "Thursday Night Football" for the next few years, while ESPN lost Jon Gruden from the "Monday Night Football" booth to the Oakland Raiders.

And neither network is playing around with what amounts to billion-dollar properties. FOX paid $3.3 billion for TNF over the next five years, while ESPN regularly pays over $1.5 billion annually to the NFL for its full television contract (which features MNF, a playoff game and rights to use highlights on sundry television shows).

Manning is the target here, according to the report from Andrew Marchand of the Post, and it is a "high stakes" battle between the two for his services. Manning is a logical target, Marchand writes, particularly in the wake of Tony Romo's success on the "NFL on CBS" this year. The ex-Colts and Broncosquarterback is smart, engaging, funny and would probably slot onto a broadcast pretty seamlessly. It would be stunning if he wasn't good on television.

According to Marchand, FOX reached out to Manning before last season to gauge his interest, but the ex-QB declined to sign up. "FOX will try again, but, at this point, it is ESPN who is being far more aggressive," Marchand writes.

Per the report, ESPN is willing to "back up the truck" to land Manning on its NFL property, and may be interested in rebooting the franchise entirely. The network admitted earlier this year it will "talk to" Manning for the MNF job. Sean McDonough replaced Mike Tirico when the latter left for NBC recently, but if Manning signs on, he could be joined by another play-by-play man, with Joe Tessitore, Steve Levy, Dave Pasch and Bob Wischusen all getting referenced as possible partners and/or next men up for the play-by-play role.

Manning will be driving a pace car for the Daytona 500 this weekend and will get the hard sell from top FOX executives, according to Marchand. One possible selling point? TNF keeping Manning at home on the weekends. The prep work for the Thursday game involves multiple days, obviously, but Manning would be able to return home for the weekend after doing a Thursday broadcast, assuming he doesn't also do a Sunday broadcast for FOX as well. (That would be a major upset, because it would mean Manning shifting into a No. 2 role behind Troy Aikman.)

It's also entirely possible Manning will remain focused on owning and/or running a professional football team. He's been linked as a possible owner/personnel man since before he retired, and would have a number of suitors in the NFL if he is interested.

But maybe Manning is simply waiting for brother Eli Manning to retire so he can team up with his family and run a team. The paths are wide open for Manning, who everyone expects will be just as successful in his next venture as he was in his professional football career. Give him credit for being just as prepared and patient as he was as a quarterback when it comes to taking the next step.