he should come here. Would have a nice DE rotation with him and Fowler on the edge.

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What I mean is what do you want to see.......a blowout, a shoot out, a close hard fought game that goes back and forth..........

I think if it's a blowout the sports talk "experts" will say the Saints had an off day. But this is my preference. @LARAMSinFeb. posted earlier in another thread he wants to see a dismantling and to quote him a "destroy somebody" game.

This is what I have decided I want also.

As in all phases. As in SEA late last year where it was just a comical blowout and complete domination. Or like the Giants game I posted for him in the thread where he said that. haha. I would love to see a 50 burger and 2 of the TD's coming from one each from the defense and ST. I would love to see Littleton add a blocked FG to his list of huge plays this year and he deserves the reward of picking it up and taking it all the way for the score. And on the defense I would like to see a scoop and score from a strip sack. The offense can feel free to go ahead pick up the other 35 or so points.

A close game would be fine too. A hard fought win on the road, in that venue, over an excellent team would get peoples attention.

Realistically I am afraid of a shootout on the road in a loud ass stadium. I don't want to see both teams over 30, that's risky. I like seeing it when I am watching a game the Rams aren't playing because it's fun, but when it's the Rams it makes me edgy.

I do realize (At least I think!) that Sean McVay has a few more years left on his current contract BUT the sooner the Rams can commit him to a LOOONG Term Contract the Happier I will be! Sean McVay is special and I do hope he remains the Rams Head Coach for many, many years/seasons!

So... what do you think of daylight saving time?

Let’s please avoid the politics of how it would be changed... instead, do you see any benefit or disadvantage to it?

Not every country observes it, so it’s really one of those odd duck things we do.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time_by_country

———

Daylight saving time needs to be abolished – Let's stop the insanity

Clocks set to 'fall back' on Sunday

Here we go again with our annual exercise in silliness. At 2 a.m. Sunday the absurdity known as daylight saving time ends. Unless you live in Arizona or Hawaii – the only two states where daylight saving time is not observed – you will need to turn your clocks back an hour, gaining the hour you lost when clocks moved forward March 11.

You also don’t need to worry about changing your clocks if you live in the U.S. territories of American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. But there’s not much time left to relocate there to escape the mandatory time travel the rest of must endure.

The truth is that daylight saving time is a waste of time and accomplishes nothing. Contrary to popular myth, it does not save energy.

Nobody likes daylight saving time. Nobody’s even sure what it’s for. But it certainly has no purpose in our technology-driven, always-on society.

Airlines and airline passengers hate daylight saving time. It messes with schedules and can lead to missed flights, missed connections, pilot error, and worse.

Employers hate daylight saving time because workers are either late, unavailable, or dangerously sleep-deprived when clocks “spring forward” in March. That’s especially true for truck drivers, Uber and Lyft drivers, and anyone who operates heavy machinery.

Nobody likes daylight saving time. Nobody’s even sure what it’s for. But it certainly has no purpose in our technology-driven, always-on society.

Even dairy cows hate daylight saving time. They don’t want to wait an extra hour to be milked. And who can blame them? If they could talk, they would surely ask us why we dumb humans are moving clocks back and forth for no udder reason than the fact that we’ve been doing so since 1966 under federal law.

Daylight saving time is absolute proof that our government is hopelessly dysfunctional, out of touch with the times, and – let’s tell the truth – all but useless.

So who benefits from daylight saving time?

A trade association representing the barbecue industry absolutely loves daylight time. Longer summer days equal a longer barbecuing season. You cannot make this stuff up.

It’s hard to find anyone else in America who thinks that daylight saving is a good idea. But the only way it could change is if Congress takes action.

Don’t hold your breath.

If Congress can’t even handle a simple issue like eliminating daylight saving time – where there is virtually universal support for its repeal – no wonder lawmakers have no shot at doing hard things like the balancing the federal budget, figuring out what to do about health insurance, dealing with illegal immigration, and reducing gun violence and other crimes.

It’s truly amazing that most Americans and their calendars are held hostage by the grill and charcoal companies. What do they give members of Congress to keep daylight time in place? Free hot dogs, burgers and roasted marshmallows?

So this Sunday, I invite all Americans – red, blue and purple – to join me in a day of peaceful protest. Let’s demand that we not be forced forward and backward through time like yo-yos.

Let’s tell our elected representatives in the House and Senate – especially the ones begging for our votes in the midterm elections Tuesday – that it’s time to throw daylight saving time onto the ash heap of history.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/daylight-saving-time-needs-to-be-abolished-lets-stop-the-insanity

Posting only the Rams' portion written by Steve Wyche from NFL REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK:

Rams' grand plans

The Los Angeles Rams' acquisition of former Jacksonville Jaguars pass rusher Dante Fowler at this week's trade deadline -- in exchange for a third-round pick in 2019 and a fifth-rounder in 2020 -- continued a trend by the league's only undefeated team to aggressively part ways with draft picks for players who boast an NFL resume.

This offseason, Los Angeles surrendered a first-round draft pick in a deal for wide receiver Brandin Cooks. The Rams also made trades for cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and added standout defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in free agency.

The additions have paid off, as the Rams enter Week 9 at 8-0. But while the record has been perfect, the roster wasn't. The decision to part with pass rushers Robert Quinn (via trade) and Connor Barwin (via free agency) this spring left a void that interior defenders Aaron Donald, Suh and Michael Brockers could only cover up for so long.

So the move was made for Fowler, a former No. 3 overall pick who hasn't lived up to his lofty draft status, but who is expected to pay dividends over the final half of the season. His contract expires after 2018, so this is an audition for Fowler. The Rams didn't mind giving up a third-round pick, because if Fowler pays off, general manager Les Snead said, they're better. If it doesn't work out and the sides part ways, then the Ramsstill likely will have two third-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, because they're expecting corresponding compensatory picks for losing cornerback Trumaine Johnson and wide receiver Sammy Watkins in free agency.

"It drives me nuts when people say that you're going all in to win the Super Bowl this season," Snead said. "You're going all in to maybe give you a millimeter, centimeter, an upper hand.

"Building through the draft leads to sustainability. You've also been able to watch what a team like New England's done. They've used draft picks, but they've also used picks to make trades. They've used free agency. Your whole goal is to acquire players that are going to help Sean McVay and his staff execute in any way possible."

The Rams did build a nucleus through the draft that includes running back Todd Gurley, Donald, Brockers and safety Lamarcus Joyner. Quarterback Jared Goff was drafted No. 1 overall in 2016 -- don't forget, though, that the rising star was acquired after a trade with the Titans to move up to the top spot.

It took McVay, hired in 2017, to improve the perpetually woeful Rams, but he needed supporting pieces, starting with as much offensive help as possible. The Rams' offense ranked last in the league in 2016, which was the team's first season back in L.A., having returned to the city following a 21-year relocation to St. Louis.

Left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan were acquired in 2017 free agency. Wide receiver Robert Woods was, too. The Rams traded a second-round pick to Buffalo for Watkins. Los Angeles then went on to win the NFC West, but got knocked off by Atlanta on Wild Card Weekend.

The Chiefs signed Watkins to a three-year, $48 million contract this spring -- too rich for the Rams. McVay and Snead pondered waiting for a rookie wideout to possibly fall to them at No. 23 in the draft, but they didn't like their chances that maybe Calvin Ridley would be there. Even if he was, would he immediately measure up to the tsunami of offensive production they'd established?

So, they traded a first-rounder for Cooks with every expectation that they'd sign him to a long-term deal. (He ended up inking a five-year, $81 million extension.) McVay wanted him in 2017, but the Rams didn't have the assets to trade for him then.

L.A. can make a lot of these moves and pay out some hefty contracts in part because Goff is in the third season of a rookie contract that pays him less than $3 million in base salary in 2018. That number is going to radically inflate in a few years -- based on the current quarterback salary escalation, $30 million annually will be the baseline -- but that won't mean the Rams will have to make a massive salary dump to keep Goff.

By then, Whitworth, who is now 36, could retire, and Talib could be gone, as well, clearing two contracts at high-salaried positions. Also, the extensions Cooks, Donald and Gurley signed this offseason will be more middle-of-the-pack in terms of dollar value by then, especially with the expected continued increase in the salary cap.

That's why, despite all the talk that the Rams are making moves to close the deal this season, Snead said they haven't done anything in a vacuum.

"This isn't just for 2018," Snead said. "We don't want to be 2018 and it's over. What's going on, it's microscopic -- and telescopic."

This has the feeling we come out, passing 12 plays in a roll (to open the run). And put an epic drive that shuts up a lot of people. We get up 2 scores early and force them to pass while playing catch up! Coach McVay brings his A game and schools DC Allen.
Has that feeling to me. 14-0 early and Aints can't follow their script and play catch up fearing we get to 21 on 3rd O drive!!!

.

@Prime Time posted these at the end of the celebration thread so i'm not sure if everyone saw them. enjoy.

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This guy is a damn robot. He’s got an intellectual and articulate answer for every question thrown at him. How fortunate we are.

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/02/nfl-rams-report-card-grades-positions-midseason/

Rams midseason report card: Grading every position after 8 games
By: Cameron DaSilva

Even though Sean McVay will say things haven’t been perfect, changes need to be made and improvements are a must, the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season. They’re 8-0 midway through the 2018 campaign, ranking third in points scored and sixth in points allowed.

It’s been a complete team effort from top to bottom as all position groups have contributed to their perfect record in some way. You don’t win eight straight games by accident.

With eight weeks in the books, we’ve graded every position for the Rams thus far. It’s our midseason report card:

Quarterback
So much for that fluke season in 2017, huh? After putting up big numbers last year and earning his first Pro Bowl bid, Jared Goff came back in 2018 and has played even better. He’s thrown 17 touchdown passes and just five interceptions, totaling 2,425 yards passing with a rating of 112.5.

He ranks in the top 10 in just about every statistical category, performing at the highest level of his career. He’s a huge reason for the Rams’ success, not only taking care of the football, but also making eye-popping throws on a weekly basis.

Grade: A

Running back
It’s a quarterback-driven league, but for the second straight season, Todd Gurley has put himself at the forefront of the MVP conversation. He leads the NFL in touches, rushing yards, total yards and total touchdowns, putting himself on pace for 2,302 yards from scrimmage and 30 touchdowns. If he’s not the MVP right now, there aren’t many players ahead of him.

Malcolm Brown has contributed some, too, averaging a stellar 5.1 yards per carry (189 yards). He’s trusted by the coaching staff to protect Jared Goff in passing situations, which has kept John Kelly and Justin Davis on the sideline.

Grade: A+

Wide receiver
Even after the Sammy Watkins experiment failed in 2017, the Rams remained aggressive and added Brandin Cooks to an already strong receiving corps. Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods all have at least 438 yards and 30 catches this season, and that’s with Kupp missing nearly three full games due to injury. The wide receivers have been outstanding for Goff and can be relied upon at any moment to make a big play.

Josh Reynolds has added seven catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns, filling in nicely while Cooper Kupp was injured. The Rams don’t go very far beyond their top three receivers, but Reynolds gives some valuable depth.

Grade: A

Tight end
If there’s a position on offense that has been lacking, it’s tight end. Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee have combined to catch just 16 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown in eight games, or an average of two catches and 21 yards per game.

It’s not as though McVay is keeping them on the bench, either. No team uses 11 personnel (one tight end, three receivers, one running back) more than the Rams, so one of the two is almost always on the field. Higbee’s blocking has been good enough, but that’s an area Everett must improve.

Grade: C-

Offensive line
While there have been some issues in recent weeks with Goff being sacked five times in two of the last three games (11 total sacks), the offensive line has been outstanding. It’s one of the best units in the league right now, opening up gaping holes for Gurley and protecting Goff from some of the top pass rushers. John Sullivan has been the weak link, but Austin Blythe’s emergence at right guard has been a pleasant surprise.

Grade: A

Defensive line
If you just took the sacks by Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers and Ethan Westbrooks, the Rams would have more sacks than five teams. That may not seem like much, but their 15 sacks have accounted for 68 percent of the team’s 22 on the year. Donald has 10 by himself, which is why the group earns an A on this report card.

He’s being double-teamed 70 percent of the time, too, which means everyone else on the defensive line is getting one-on-one matchups frequently. The run defense has been suspect at times, which is why this isn’t an A+.

Grade: A

Inside linebacker
Cory Littleton has been an X-factor for the Rams this season, both on defense and special teams with two blocked punts. He leads the team with 66 tackles, is second with three sacks and five tackles for loss, while also picking off a pass. He may not get Pro Bowl recognition, but Littleton has been a stud.

Ramik Wilson played fairly well in the first four games, but Mark Barron quickly supplanted him as a starter. Since then, Barron has been working his way back to 100 percent but still isn’t playing at a high level. Hopefully he’ll continue improving, but it’s been a tough go of it through four games.

Grade: B+

Outside linebacker
The outside linebacker position was bad enough in the first eight games that the coaching staff and front office felt it necessary to acquire Dante Fowler Jr. for two draft picks. It wasn’t a huge risk, but parting ways with a third- and fifth-round pick for a potential rental player carries some weight. Samson Ebukam has just one sack but showed flashes of potential, Matt Longacre has been nowhere to be found and the rest of the group has either been injured or ineffective. If Fowler can become a starter and impact player quickly, the tide will turn for L.A.’s defense.

Grade: C

Cornerback
After adding Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Sam Shields, you’d probably expect a higher grade from the cornerbacks. However, Talib’s injury has caused major problems in the secondary, Peters has been one of the worst corners in football and neither Shields nor Troy Hill has done much to warrant a starting job. Nickell Robey-Coleman has been the best of the bunch, but he’s limited to the slot.

Grade: C+

Safety
The Rams had two elite-level safeties last season in John Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner, but only one of them has continued to get better. Johnson has been outstanding through eight games despite struggling in Week 1, while Joyner is just now finding his groove. Joyner still needs to get much better as the season goes on, especially with free agency pending, but Johnson’s play has lifted this tandem in a big way. His three interceptions rank second in the NFL.

Grade: B

Special teams
It’s been a wild ride for John Fassel’s group thus far. They’ve used three kickers (excluding Johnny Hekker), have been decimated in the return game with injuries to Pharoh Cooper, Mike Thomas, Cooper Kupp and JoJo Natson and still have one of the best units in the league.

Greg Zuerlein hasn’t missed a beat, Hekker is effective when called upon and their 495 kick return yards are third in the NFL. The Rams also rank second in punt return yards, so there’s been almost no drop-off since Cooper went down.

Grade: A

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/01/3-rams-players-who-must-improve-in-the-second-half/

3 Rams players who must improve in the second half
By: Andrew Ortenberg

The Los Angeles Rams have reached the halfway point of the season, and have little to complain about. They’re the last remaining team in the NFL who hasn’t lost a game, and almost everyone on the team is playing pretty well.

That being said, there’s certainly room for improvement and there have been several players who aren’t playing up to their potential. Here are three Rams who must improve their play in the second half if the Rams want to finish just as strong as they’ve started:

1. CB Marcus Peters
Peters is the most important name on this list. One of the Rams’ prized offseason acquisitions, Peters hasn’t played up to his reputation. Peters has long been known as the ultimate boom/bust player, someone who gives up a lot of big plays who also makes a lot of big plays. So far this year, it’s been way more of the former.

Peters has given up long completion after long completion while making very few plays on the ball. Peters had 8, 6, and 5 interceptions during his three seasons in Kansas City, but has only one at the halfway point this year. That interception was a pick-six in the opener, and Peters has really struggled since Aqib Talib went down.

The Rams’ secondary has been picked on for weeks now, and it needs to get better. If the Rams are going to avoid dropping any games before Talib comes back, Peters will need to improve greatly.

2. OLB Matt Longacre
Longacre came out of nowhere last year, and at several points last season was the team’s sack leader. The 2015 UDFA from Northwest Missouri State finally got consistent playing time on defense in 2017 and made the most of it. He racked up 5.5 sacks in 14 games before his season was cut short by a back injury.

Longacre’s back has been bothering him again this year, and he hasn’t put up any numbers despite playing pretty significant snaps. He’s been on the field for 203 defensive snaps this year but has just nine tackles and zero sacks. The Rams went out and traded for Dante Fowler at the deadline to boost their outside pass-rush, but will still need their current group of guys to contribute.

If Longacre could get back into the groove he was in last season, it would go a long way toward curing the Rams’ outside rushing woes. It’ll be interesting to see if he can step up in the second half and keep his snaps even with Fowler present.

3. C John Sullivan
By no means has Sullivan been terrible this year, but he’s been the weak link on an otherwise elite offensive line. Sullivan has been mediocre while every other member of the line has been playing at a very high level. Pro Football Focus has given Sullivan a 54.0 grade for the season, 28th among centers.

While PFF isn’t the end-all be-all by any means, it’s been pretty clear that Sullivan has been playing at a far lower level than his fellow linemen. Sullivan had a particularly bad game last week against the Packers, routinely allowing pressure up the middle.

Andrew Whitworth, Rodger Saffold, Austin Blythe, and Rob Havenstein have all been playing great, and Sullivan has shown he’s capable of playing very well in the past. If Sullivan can improve in the second half and elevate his game, it would cement the Rams’ offensive line as the best in the league.

i just watched the replay.

The Vikings were able to run on the Saints with Murray.

Thielen fumbled and it resulted in a long Saints recovery with a 15 yard penalty racked on. That turned the score around. 17-13

3rd quarter still Minnesota on their own 40 goes for it on 4th and 1 and fails resulting in a Saints field goal

Still in the third Cousins under pressure throws an int right into the arms of a defender for a pick six. 27-13

So three big mistakes led to 17 points for the Saints. Gifts, if you will, that changed the game.


The Saints had a good drive mostly running out the clock resulting in a field goal.

Before and after the mistakes the Vikings offense was moving the ball on the ground and in the air. Clean up the mistakes and I think the Vikings could have won that game easily.

Now I know that the Rams will be in the Superdome, but nothing about the Vikings/Saints game tells me that winning the upcoming game is or should be some insurmountable feat, as is being depicted. I don’t understand why it’s been a landslide in favor of the Saints, when it comes too who the media is picking.

The Saints look very much like the same team that they were last year. And the Rams beat them last year.

http://ramstalk.net/rampage-radio-ep-19-battle-of-nfc-powers-ft-saints-happy-hour/

Or on iTunes. Go rate us if you would.


We here boys!!! Biggest game and biggest test yet... ‘Who dat’ Saints. Solid interview, fun pod overall.

Le’ go!

It was a sad day to see Janoris go. Now he’s trade bait or getting cut. I haven’t heard Trus name is awhile.
John Big Swinging Johnson is a beast. MP is battling injury and Talib should return. They’ll both be ready come playoff time. The secondary is still playing well enough to win games.
I’m glad we didn’t pay both of them over 12 mill. And I love the team we have
GO RAMS

Yeah, it's getting to be an every week thing now for Reggie Bush for his hot take on NFLN. He has predicted a Rams loss vs the Broncos, the 49ers, and the Packers... He's been somewhat of a lone wolf, but not this week. Stephen A. is a jerk, so there is no surprise about him picking a loss. Kay Adams and Kyle Brandt think we lose. Hell, two of you think we'll lose. There are more...

Now that we are getting closer to 16-0, there are many who think there's no way we can sweep. "They gotta lose sometime" is the reasoning. I think the only way the Rams lose, is if McVay holds players out. I hope if he does pull starters, it's only after playing a half.....

NO MORE RUST!

As a guy who grew up a Dodger fan it feels strange to pay homage to a legendary San Francisco Giant.

But Willie McCovey became personal for me back in the late ‘70s. One of my “Forest Gump” moments was being able to meet him, and hang out with him at his home in Woodside, Ca.

My moms sister actually befriended him when he played a few years down in San Diego. When Willie Mac came back to San Francisco the Padres came up to Candlestick late September she got some extra tickets for a game, (1978?).



We all got to watch Willie hit one of his signature loping swings into the right field seats, then head back to his house to celebrate.

Aside from the game, my memories of that day include: learning what a bidet toilet was, checking out his great view, and tennis courts, and sitting on the couch on the left shoulder of “Stretch” McCovey, watching Football on his TV.

“Chaaaar-lotte? Could you get me a beer?” He called out to his housekeeper, in his nicest southern drawl. For this was a man not capable of being demanding, or full of himself. I can still hear his kind voice.

He was very gracious during our short visit. I never visited with him again. But the right field cove in San Francisco now bears his name. Home runs will forever be chased down in canoes and paddle boats in “McCovey Cove”.

Baseball lost a great man yesterday.

And though he didn’t offer this formerly-13-year-old kid a beer, via housekeeper, Charlotte, for at least a couple hours he was
my football-watching pal.

And I never felt like I was getting in his way.

Go with God, Willie.

I am calling for a 14-2 to 16-0 regular season, so I think they spank the pretenders in the next 3 games....so...

Sun 11-4

Rams 8-0 ………………………… Seahawks 4-3

Rams @ Saints - Win……… .....Chargers @ Hawks - Loss


Sun 11-11

Rams 9-0………………….………Seahawks 4-4

Hawks @ Rams -Win…….......…Hawks @ Rams – Loss


Thurs 11-15

Hawks 4-5…………………………()

Packers @ Hawks -Loss

Mon 11-19

Rams 10-0

Chefs @ Rams (Mexico City) ….Win


Rams @ bye 11-0 and Hawks 4-6


Rams clinch NFC West, 2nd year in a row. THIS TIME IN NOVEMBER

Dude is so great and I think he approaches the best HC we have ever had. I worry when I see the face of a guy who is so important to us and the team, look so tired. It would be a tragedy when the Rams win a Super Bowl, that he retires. I am of the opinion, that McVay is worth more than any single player. He is our franchise. I don't sense a closeness between Dick Vermeil and Sean McVay, but I wish Vermeil could transmit what he went through in the 70's to McVay....I want McVay for 20 years, myself.

I just pulled up a replay of the Packers at Rams and this was the screen and a Rams helmet design I've never seen before.

Figured what the hell, we're halfway through the sched so why not. Here's what we have right now, and what yours truly projects for this year's second season:

CONTENDERS...

NFC East
Redskins 5-2
Eagles 4-4

Division Outlook: Eagles still are probably favored by most, but I think the Skins can win the division particularly since the addition of Clinton-Dix was such a shrewd gain for their defense. Either way I think you have two playoff teams in this division.

NFC North
Bears 4-3
Vikings 4-3-1
Packers 3-3-1

Division Outlook: Bears are in a good spot but I don't think their QB is ready to sustain things. Vikes will likely win that division IMO and the Packers are going to chase that wildcard with the Bears.

NFC South
Saints 6-1
Panthers 5-2

Division Outlook: Saints will hopefully receive a big setback this weekend courtesy of our Rams, but I expect them to win the division rather easily. Panthers are playing some great ball right now but I personally am not a believer in them, that said they are definitely a contender as of this moment.

NFC West
Rams 8-0
Seahawks 4-3

Division Outlook: Rams pretty much have it sewn up. Seahawks are like many of the other teams above but their defense is clicking quite nicely and I think they will be a playoff quality team come end of the season.


NFC Wildcard Outlook: I think the wildcard will look something like this...

5. Eagles.
6. Panthers.
7. Packers.
8. Seahawks.

http://506sports.com/

• 
  

I check Vegas Insider, a local betting site, pretty closely all week/every week, and they had the Saints, -1, as minus-135 favorites till 1/2 hour ago. It's now down to Pick'em, both teams at minus-110. (At Stations Casinos, where I bet).
So (with my limited knowledge - always defer to @flv), either some sharp made a huge bet on the Rams, or bettors are thinking Fowler will have a significant impact on the game, (which personally I find hard to believe). In any case, lots of love for LA.

(Maybe it was Randy Newman). :rimshot:

The guy is just solid. He always does his assignment well. He’s a pretty good interview from what we’ve seen. And he’s always been in the back ground of the public perception to higher profile players on our DLine. Then there’s this....

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It looks slower/weaker than it did the first 5 games.

Kurt Warner said his got weaker during hte 19999 from all the hits....also he was throwing from the side more....think Goff may have something similar going on....

Of course, I must be wrong, again

Personally, I think their total for the Rams during the regular season is 2 too low. I posted transcripts from the top four but the rest can be found here:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...l-win-totals-for-2018-rams-chiefs-riding-high

Now that eight weeks of the 2018 season have passed, we have enough data about the identity and potential of each team to really start sorting out who will be contending in January and who will be picking near the top of the 2019 NFL Draft next spring.

Just as I did before the season began, I've used a model to generate projected final win totals for the 2018 campaign, providing a peek at how things could play out as we head down the final stretch toward the playoffs.

But first, here's a quick look at how my model works.

My model compares this season's games with 15 previous seasons of situational production metrics that led to wins and losses (between 2003 and 2017). Tracking personnel, matchups, play-calling and results from past seasons establishes historical "profiles." The results from the games that have already been played this season are then collected and analyzed in the same way, with the model revealing similarities between the current iteration of each team and its past versions. Then each remaining game is simulated. The reason every game isn't a 50/50 coin flip is because each team has different strengths and weaknesses, and the way they match up against each other has different historical references for "what happened most often." Because there are many different ways the situational aspect of football can play out, it's necessary to run many simulations for each remaining game, to see each of the involved teams' profiles stack up over a range of reasonable situations.

Just how many times is each game simulated? While I might ordinarily go with a figure like 10,000, I decided to up the number to 20,000, including each remaining game in the regular season (there are 135 left).

A quick note: Scoring is obviously up this year compared to past years (we're on track to set a new offensive scoring record). But that change hasn't yet -- and likely won't -- significantly affect the use of historical data, as the most influential production factors (things like turnovers and red-zone efficiency), taken in context of the game situation (think: down, distance, score and time), remain consistent with what we've seen before, in terms of what relates most strongly to the ability to win games.

Below, you'll see the projected final win totals for all 32 teams in the NFL, from highest win totals to lowest.

RANK 1

RAMS: 14.0 wins

Current record: 8-0. Projected playoff percentage: 99.9.

The Rams already ranked first in interior pressure before the addition of Dante Fowler at the trade deadline. Fowler will complement that strength by bringing more perimeter pressure potential and rotational depth. In the 15-season model, teams that won the most games and made the deepest playoff runs followed this blueprint: combining elite defensive front pressure with exceptional production from the offensive backfield. When your approach reduces the likelihood of offensive turnovers and increases the likelihood of causing turnovers on defense, good things happen. The Rams were already elite at both aspects of the game and just got better.

RANK 2

CHIEFS: 12.8 wins

Current record: 7-1. Projected playoff percentage: 99.9.

If they can hold their current pace, the Chiefs will produce the highest rates of offensive diversity and combined efficiency at the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions in my model's history. So far, Kansas City has been able to outpace its defensive inefficiencies. The Chiefs' defense has given up the most big plays per game (9.3), and it's possible that this ineffectiveness, by forcing Patrick Mahomes to learn more offensive plays in high-pressure situations, helped accelerate his learning curve.


RANK 3

PATRIOTS: 11.8 wins

Current record: 6-2. Projected playoff percentage: 99.0.

Defensive pressures are increasing. In Weeks 1-4, the Pats ranked 26th; now they're tied with Houston for the 13th-most pressures on the season.

RANK 4

SAINTS: 11.4 wins

Current record: 6-1. Projected playoff percentage: 91.2.

The next three games (vs. Rams, at Bengals, vs. Eagles) -- combined with the Saints' ability to handle elite pressure on offense (especially interior pressure) and their defense's ability to stop the pass -- will help us sort out just how high New Orleans' ceiling is this season.