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Ryan Clark, LOl, he still loves us.

Maybe we'll see a reinvigorated Peters now....one can only hope.

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https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/1...o-watch-mccaffrey-conner-roethlisberger-brown

5 reasons our expectations are high for Steelers vs. Panthers on ‘Thursday Night Football’
Steelers vs. Panthers should be one of the better Thursday night games this NFL season. Here’s why we’re tuning in to watch.
By Rebecca Toback

When the Steelers and Panthers meet on Thursday Night Football, Carolina will be seeking its first-ever road win in Pittsburgh and first win over the Steelers since 1996. Carolina is 1-5 all-time against Pittsburgh and 0-3 on the road, but the Panthers have been dominant in recent weeks and come into this matchup with a 6-2 record. The Steelers are no slouch either with a 5-2-1 record that has them in first place in the AFC North.

After the 49ers made last week’s Thursday night matchup against the Raiders much more exciting than you’d expect for a game featuring teams that had one win each, our expectations are higher for a game starring two teams with winning records.

Here are five things we’ll be watching for when the Steelers take on the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 10 (Fox/NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET).

1) Exciting Panthers rookies

The Panthers’ rookie second-round draft pick Donte Jackson has been having a terrific season. He is tied for first in the league with four interceptions, and recorded his fourth takeaway of the season against the Buccaneers last week. To go along with that, Jackson has 37 tackles, one sack, seven passes defensed, and a forced fumble. Look for him to make an impact tonight.

Additionally, first-round rookie receiver D.J. Moore has 297 receiving yards and a touchdown along with 117 rushing yards. Last week, Moore set a Panthers franchise record for rushing yards by a wide receiver following a 32-yard run. Look for Moore’s former college teammate at Maryland and current Steelers safety Sean Davis to put a stop to the rookie receiver’s damage tonight.

2) Stand out running backs

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has shown considerable improvement from a relatively impressive rookie season in 2017 and will be a big part of Carolina’s game plan tonight. He’ll be playing in his 25th career game and needs 63 rushing yards to become the seventh player in league history with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in his first 25 career games.

Here are the other players to accomplish that feat:



As for the Steelers, they have an up-and-coming running back on their roster, too. James Connerhas 706 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns along with 379 receiving yards and one score through the air.

This game will be an interesting one for the second-year back as he’s been filling in for Le’Veon Bell while the star back has been home in Miami, watching football from the couch this season. Now, it seems like Bell is back in Pittsburgh and he might make his first appearance of the season at Heinz Field early next week. Could this be Conner’s last game as the Steelers’ starting running back?

Last week against the Ravens, Conner had 163 scrimmage yards and a touchdown catch. He enters this week boasting four games with 100-plus rushing yards, 50-plus receiving yards and at least one touchdown in 2018. He’s the only player in Steelers history with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards (1,085) and 10-plus touchdowns (10) in the team’s first eight games of a season. Expect him to make another splash tonight.

With that said, the Steelers defense is allowing the sixth least rushing yards per game (90.3) and the Panthers defense is allowing the eighth least (94.1).

3) The Antonio Brown-Ben Roethlisberger connection

Ben Roethlisberger started the season slow but he’s been heating up, as has his strong connection with Antonio Brown. Week 9 featured the 68th Big Ben to AB touchdown, nine of which have come this season.

With two touchdown passes from Roethlisberger to Brown tonight against Carolina, they would become the seventh quarterback-receiver duo in NFL history to connect on 70 career touchdown passes.

Here are the QB-WR duos to accomplish that task to date:



4. Statistically similar defenses

With both offenses being pretty prolific (Pittsburgh ranks ninth in points per game with 28.4 and Carolina is tied for 11th with 27.5), the game could come down to which defense steps up more. But, these are two pretty similar defenses.

Yards per game: Carolina (11th, 344.8), Pittsburgh (12th, 347.9)
Passing yards per game: Carolina (19th, 250.6), Pittsburgh (21st, 257.6)
Rushing yards per game: Carolina (8th, 94.1), Pittsburgh (6th, 90.3)
Points per game: Carolina (t-12th, 22.5), Pittsburgh (15th, 23.5)
Forced fumbles: Carolina (t-12th, eight), Pittsburgh (t-15th, seven)

As far a differences, the Steelers are tied for fourth in the NFL with 26.0 sacks and the Panthers are tied for 19th with 21.0. The Carolina defense has among the most interceptions with 11 (fourth) while the Steelers have five (t-21st).

5) Both teams’ fans are extremely confident

Steelers fans come into this game with a high level of confidence in their team. 82 percent of fans polled in SB Nation’s FanPulse survey are confident in the direction of the team. As for Panthers fans, 85 percent of the fanbase is confident in the direction of the team. Both teams’ fanbases believe they will win tonight. You’ll have to tune in to find out who’s right.

Behind the Steel Curtain FanPulse: Steelers will win by 5
Cat Scratch Reader FanPulse: Panthers will win by 2
Odds: Pittsburgh -4

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/08/nfl-los-angeles-rams-robert-woods-wide-receiver/

Robert Woods has become one of the most underrated WRs in the NFL
By: Cameron DaSilva



Much is made about the playmakers the Los Angeles Rams have on offense. Jared Goff is playing like a Pro Bowler, Todd Gurley might be the league’s MVP and Brandin Cooks is having a great first season in L.A. Cooper Kupp is still a fan favorite after a historic rookie year, too.

The player who always seems to get overlooked in the Rams’ offense is Robert Woods – the eldest of L.A.’s wide receivers. Even as the oldest receiver in L.A., Woods is only 26 years old and just now hitting his prime. That’s great news for the Rams, who got a bargain by signing him to a five-year, $34 million deal through 2021.

After a year and a half in Los Angeles, Woods has become one of the most underrated wideouts in the NFL. He may not put up eye-popping numbers or make highlight-reel, one-handed catches, but week in and week out, there aren’t many more consistent wide receivers.

Very quietly, he’s emerged as Pro Football Focus’ fifth-ranked receiver this season.

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Consider this, too: Only 18 times in NFL history has a player put together a streak of eight or more games with at least five catches and 70 yards. Woods is among them, owning the only active streak of eight or more such games. By catching five passes for 70 yards on Sunday, he would tie the franchise record of nine held by Isaac Bruce.

You don’t get to this point by simply being average. Many of the receivers on that list are either Hall of Famers or likely to be inducted in the future: Antonio Brown, Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Julio Jones, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Irvin, among others.

Many fans may not realize just how reliable and valuable Woods is, but rest assured, his teammates do. Todd Gurley said “Woods is my fullback, technically” because of the job he does blocking for not only running backs, but his fellow wide receivers downfield.

Jared Goff said Woods has some of the best hands of any receiver he’s played with.

“He’s got some of the best hands I’ve ever played with. It’s comparable to anyone I’ve ever played with,” Goff said last month. “If you guys watch most of his catches nowadays, it’s all out in front of his body – all with his hands. He makes some miraculous catches as well with his hands. He’s just become a guy that I can really trust with any route, any sort of cut, anything. He’s a guy that I really have a lot of faith in.”

Woods has showed off his strong hands on a number of occasions. He only has two drops this season and makes difficult catches in traffic more often than probably any Rams receiver, plucking the ball out of the air rather than letting it get into his body. Along the sideline, he’s even better.

Look at this catch he made last week against the Saints on a perfectly thrown pass from Goff.



Goff has full trust in Woods, too.

Last year in a shootout against the 49ers, Woods ran an out-and-up along the far sideline. He got enough separation from the defender to give Goff the confidence to make the throw. Even though it was underthrown slightly, Woods turned and made a great play to stay inbounds.



He can make catches deep downfield, too, as he did in the playoffs last season…

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… and against the Texans on this record-breaking 94-yard touchdown.

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In the open field, he shows off the speed and quickness as a former track star. That was on full display against the Giants last year, taking a screen pass on third-and-33 to the house from 52 yards out…untouched.

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One of Woods’ best attributes is his versatility. Not only can he run just about any route in the tree, but he can line up wherever the coaching staff needs him to. He typically plays the Z receiver role to the right of the offensive formation with Cooks on the other side and Kupp in the slot.

However, when Kupp went down with his knee injury, Woods became the Rams’ primary slot receiver. Pass game coordinator Shane Waldron commended Woods for taking over Kupp’s role in the offense.

“I think it was another great week of Robert Woods stepping in and really stepping up in a role where those receivers have done such a good job of understanding the entire offense,” he said last month. “So a guy like Cooper goes down, a great player for us, Robert is able to slide over and Josh (Reynolds) steps right up and we’re able to continue on with our game-plan the way we thought we could attack those guys throughout the game.”

Here’s an example of a classic route from the slot by Woods. A subtle jab-step inside opens up the defender and sets up the out route, making for an easy completion and a first down.



There are countless examples of Woods’ versatility both as an outside receiver and a slot target. He doesn’t garner the majority of the attention in L.A.’s receiving corps, but he’s highly valuable and an important part of the offense.

The offense didn’t miss a beat after Kupp went down and it’s partly because Woods was able to kick inside and play the slot. He may not be a Pro Bowler or break the internet for a spectacular leaping catch, but he does all the right things for the Rams – from route running to blocking.

The Rams overtook a team to be #1 Offense in the league....no not the KC Mahomes. The Buccaneers. KC is third.

Oh and KC is still virtually dead last in defense....

You guys see how we lost again last Sunday night to the Pats? Ouch another tough loss. I hope you guys thrash Seattle. We hate Seattle a lot. You guys think we should fire McCarthy?

There was a shooting last night in Thousand Oaks near the Rams practice facility near Cal Lutheran. I heard 12 people inside the bar died. RIP to all. I wonder if any of the players or coaches were in or near the area

Big time recap of the first loss of the season.

Find us on iTunes by searching "Rampage Radio"

or

http://ramstalk.net/rampage-radio-ep-20-breaking-down-the-l-a-rams-first-loss-looking-forward/

Follow us here:

https://twitter.com/RampageRadiopod

Apologies for being late in on this one, but I've been busy at work & family things.

Well, it was bound to happen, we took an L, but what did you guys take from the game?

Here's what I learnt.

1. We got beaten by a damn good team. Brees, Thomas and Kamara were amazing.
2. Our O did not get flustered, I was expecting it to implode when the points were racking up against us.
3. Why does it take our D so long to get going? And why do we give up so many 3rd & longs?!? I have to be honest the D has not lived up to the hype of all the massive names we signed in the offseason.
4. I think Fowler is a great addition, definitely brought something extra o the edge, its a shame though that Brees truly is one of the best and we couldn't get to him.
5. Some of the play calling was a little strange, I do think that McVay was struggling against the Saints D to find a chink...
6. And finally: Rams fans are so predictable, we lose a close game and all of a sudden it's like "Fire Wade", "Sit Marcus Peters" etc etc - we're 8-1 guys!

What we need to see now is how we deal with that loss on the field this weekend, do the guys come back and win big or do they get taken down again? To me, the next 2 games will show us how far we'll be able to go post season.

.

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/07/nfl-rams-jared-goff-saints-week-9-film-highlights/

Rams Film Room: Jared Goff's outstanding game overlooked in loss


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By: Cameron DaSilva | 7 hours ago

There isn’t a single Los Angeles Rams fan who isn’t disappointed with the outcome of Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. It was their first loss of the season, Marcus Peters was exposed repeatedly and Todd Gurley was held in check just about all day.

As much as it hurts for the Rams to suffer their first loss of the season, there were some good things to take away from the game. First and foremost, the play of Jared Goff deserves far more attention than it’s getting.

Yes, his last two drives (2-for-6, 10 yards) weren’t pretty. And yes, he did have a deflating interception before the half. But for 60 minutes, he went toe-to-toe with Drew Brees, nearly outdueling the future Hall of Famer.

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Goff finished the day 28-for-40 with 391 yards, three touchdowns and a pick. It’s easy to evaluate his play based on stats, but let’s take a look at the film and break down his performance.

All GIFs from NFL GamePass

Play 1: 48-yard pass to Brandin Cooks


Goff was accurate throwing to all levels of the field Sunday, but this throw to Cooks deep down the left side was right on the money. It’s a good route by Cooks and Goff gets perfect protection, allowing the play to develop. Goff leads Cooks just enough upfield to gain extra yardage, too, rather than forcing his receiver to make a toe-dragging sideline catch.

Play 2: Incompletion to Tyler Higbee


You might be asking why I’m highlighting an incompletion here, but this was Goff’s best throw of the game. With defenders bearing down on him from both sides, Goff throws a perfect pass to Higbee in the front corner of the end zone. It’s just over the outreached arm of the underneath corner and in a spot where only Higbee can make a play. Unfortunately, he dropped it despite hitting both hands.

Play 3: 18-yard touchdown to Malcolm Brown

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Fortunately, Goff bounced back on the very next play and threw a touchdown pass to Brown. The running back deserves most of the credit here, but Goff made it happen by eluding pressure in the pocket and getting it into Brown’s hands.

Play 4: 26-yard pass to Cooper Kupp


This play just comes down to timing. As you can see from this angle, Goff throws the pass before Kupp is even out of his break at the top of the route. He turns and the ball is on him, which shows the chemistry and confidence they have in each other to either be in the right spot or put the ball in a perfect position. This throw was outstanding and not one every quarterback can make.

Play 5: 17-yard pass to Robert Woods


Woods has been the Rams’ most consistent receiver, be it underneath routes, digs, or out-breaking patterns. Here, he gets good depth on the route and Goff puts it right on the money in a window that’s about as big as the one in your car. He doesn’t need much of a step into this throw, either, almost getting it off flat-footed.

Play 6: 15-yard pass to Gerald Everett


Another play that’s easy to overlook, Goff side-steps the pressure off the edge and gets the ball out quickly into the hands of his tight end. There was traffic around his feet, too, preventing him from really stepping into the pass. He throws accurately off-platform, getting a much-needed field goal drive started with a 15-yard gain.

Play 7: 15-yard pass to Brandin Cooks


Once again off play-action, Goff gets a perfect pocket from which to throw. He checks the underneath receiver before firing an absolute strike to Cooks for 15 yards in-between three defenders. Not his most impressive throw of the game, but still a very good one.

Play 8: Interception by Alex Anzalone


Goff wasn’t perfect, of course. He did have that interception on a pass intended for Woods with just 1:06 left in the half. It was a bit of a forced throw with not much pressure around him, but the pass was only off by less than a foot. If it’s slightly to the left, it’s a completion to Woods. Still, probably not a throw he should be making in that situation.

Play 9: 13-yard pass to Cooper Kupp


This is probably nitpicking, but Goff may have rushed this play a bit. Off the play-action fake, Goff saw Kupp wide open. Not a bad decision to get him the ball, but look at Cooks running free further up the field. It’s a more difficult throw to hit Cooks, but if Goff throws accurately, it’s probably a 30-yard gain instead of a 13-yarder. Again, it was the smart decision and the drive ended in six, so it’s practically moot.

In total, Goff made five truly impressive throws in this game. Some will say, “Yeah but the Saints secondary is bad!” And that’s not wrong. However, those were some tight-window passes that not many quarterbacks can make.

In no way am I saying Goff outplayed Brees in this one or deserves a gold jacket right now, but these plays just show why the Rams were so happy to draft him first overall in 2016. He’s going to be a perennial Pro Bowler for L.A.

.

Mkay, is this not OPI? Here's some screenshots from Calvin Ridley's TD catch & run off of a crossing pattern:

Calvin (on the left) about to cross; his cohort #12 starting his "bull rush" into #31


Calvin making the catch, #12 pushing #31 off


Here, he finishes his OPI by slamming into #41; technically not OPI, but still.... Calvin races in for the TD.

Look, I know we also do a lot of chipping on crossing patterns & such, but this is ridiculous. Is this catching on around the league? and I know that contact within 5 yards of the LOS is permissible but this is outright blocking well in advance of the catch.

Passing yards league wide are going up in 2018, and this may be a big reason why, that plus so much holding now being allowed.

.

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and i watched every second of that video. funny and painful at the same time. it's just like we all were after an unimaginable loss at the hands of safety first coaches.

i remember the playoffs way back. the chargers in the last minutes needing a fg to win, moving down the field with brees and thomlinson, the jets powerless to stop them. and then they get in fg range. this is when schotty snr decides to run the ball straight up the gut for 3 plays. they didn't make a yard. he had brees and thomlinson at the top of their powers. he ran it up the gut 3 times. so the kicker needed to make a 40 to 50 yard fg. he missed. they lose the game.

the next week the jets in the last minutes need a fg to win. they move the ball into fg range. now herm edwards was standing on the sideline the week before watching marty throw the game away. so what does he do once he gets into fg range? he runs it up the gut 3 times. doesn't make a yard. he trots the kicker out to make a 40+ yard fg. in the rain. he misses and they lose the game.

coaches man.

.

Here is a snapshot at the same time from 2 angles:






Sorry, I cannot let it go. On the field, mistakes are made. To send up the chain and STILL get it wrong? Inexcusable.

There Were A Total Of 32 Arrests Made During The Raiders-49ers Game


Whenever the 49ers and Raiders square off on the field, the two rival fan bases are probably also squaring it off in the stands.

Aware of a history of fan altercations at Raiders-49ers games, Santa Clara police dramatically increased their gameday security and used undercover officers dressed as football fans throughout the stadium.

During last Thursday Night’s game, the team’s had yet another series of fan fights that resulted in a shocking 32 arrests including three that were for assault.

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Santa Clara police and stadium security located the suspected attacker, identified as 31-year-old Steve Gonzalez Guardado, and arrested him for assault.

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http://dailysnark.com/there-were-a-...Dg7PkiGC7Y55VOYKpp-iMeFVE28YaKWFDQUU5RdzOsIlE

Tired of this bullshit narrative downplaying the Rams' victories saying their opponents aren't good teams? Well I reveal the curtain of who the other teams in my top 5 have beaten. I think y'all will be pleasantly surprised (really you shouldn't tho).

https://ramsondemand.com/powerrankings/angry-ranks-week-10.32/

First, here's what I'm saying...






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http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=150358

Win against Rams changes it all???

If the Hawks somehow pull out a victory against the Rams in LA then I think this loss to the Chargers matters so much less.... do you agree?

However, I think if the Hawks lose against the Rams (Even in a close game), THEN I think this loss to the Chargers hurts even more. The season is an up an down emotional ride so a victory against the Rams changes everything for me even though it may only increase our wild card chances in reality. Overall, I have enjoyed watching most of the games even with the frustrating moments but they haven't given me a "WOW" moment yet -- let's hope it's coming this weekend.
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Of course it'd change things, you just beat a great team on the road after dropping one at home.

Unfortunately I think we're going to get the Rams full undivided attention and anger after they just lost at NO.
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I don't know about that. The Lambs have just enough ego's and shit birds on their roster to have that game and a few bad plays against us begin to unravel that team.

Not saying it will happen, but it CAN and I'd love to see it.
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That Rams defense is so, so poor.

They can win a shoot out, it's what they've done all season. But the idea this Rams team is somehow dominant is jibberish.
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I expect a very competitive game, both teams coming off a loss fighting for different things. This is a game the Rams should win going away, especially if we're without key players like McDougald, Fluker and Carson.

But if some of all of these guys can go, I expect another close game til the end.
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It'll be the ugliest game of the season for the Hawks.
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They beat the Rams if they play a near perfect game like the Saints did...it will take that much effort to beat the Rams @ home...they have blood in their eyes after the Saints game. A bloody good game !! IMO
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t'd be a nice win and probably seals the Rams winning the SB in February, as we have a penchant for handing the eventual SB winner a loss.
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Let’s assume the worst and they lose at the Rams. They will then have to win 3 of 4 against the Packers, Panthers, Vikings and Chiefs (and of course win the games they should be favored in). The good news is that 3 of the 4 aforementioned games will be at home. The bad news? We’re no longer a dominant home team.

A win at the Rams would be so huge. Then we’d only have to go 2-2 in those other games, which seems very possible.
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http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=150348

Seahawks open as 10-point underdogs to Rams next Sunday.

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GOOD! Carroll wouldn't have it any other way!! exactly where we want to be flying under the radar setting up a huge upset!
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If the Hawks play uninspired and sloppy football like they did today, they're going to get their collective asses handed to them by a pissed off Rams team playing at home.
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Did the Saints soften up the Rams some? I dont think so. I'll take the Rams and the 10.
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I know people want to worship the Rams, but my god their D is horrible on the back end. Shredded, multiple times this season.
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I hope the Hawks come out and kick the Rams' butts but this has all the signs of a terrible loss. You have the most talented team coming home after a really close loss to probably the 2nd best NFC team and you have the Hawks losing a somewhat close game (depending on how you look at it) at HOME who now have to go on the road.

The big road victory before the loss too may have been their "best" road game of the season too and they will need an even better effort to beat the Rams. I would bet the Rams at -10.5 with a small chance of a back door cover by the Hawks who could trail by 17 a score a last minute TD in garbage time.
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If this game was last week I would be confident in saying the game will be in the 5-8 point differential either way. But after the egg Russ laid, both Carson-Fluker banged up, and the Rams coming home pissed off their first loss, Rams win easily. Rams by at least 14.
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The Rams have beat 1 team by 10 + points in the last 5 weeks the 49ers. The other 3 wins are by a combined 7 points.

I honestly think the Seahawks have a better chance of winning this game than the Rams do of winning it by 10+.

So I had a hard time deciding who should win last weeks PTS contest and have decided that both @Legatron4 and @BonifayRam will split the $10k prize....


After limping out of NOLA with the first loss of the season, the still mighty Los Angeles Rams head back to the L.A Coliseum for home cookin, and on the menu:


(thanks @CGI_Ram)



so pick your poison and although I cant make any promises, I will try not to guilt anyone into changing their pick this week.

You guy know the rules ...closest score yada yada yada...correct winning team blah blah blah

HAVE FUN AND HAPPY PICKIN

I realize we just traded for our new pass rusher, but theres a decent one thats unemployed...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000985360/article/bruce-irvin-clears-waivers-becomes-free-agent

Bruce Irvin clears waivers, becomes free agent Bruce Irvin is now a free agent.

A few days after being waived by the Oakland Raiders, the defensive end cleared waivers, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported, via a source informed.

Irvin had seen his playing time decrease in recent weeks and saw little action in Oakland's blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night. The 31-year-old defensive end played just nine defensive snaps and zero special teams snaps in the defeat.

The pass rusher has three sacks, four QB hits and one forced fumble on the season.

Irvin could be a boon to a contender in need of pass-rushing help. Already one of his former teammates is on the lookout.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ell-picks-mvp-players-year-best-rookies-plays

Barnwell's NFL midseason awards
Bill Barnwell/ESPN Staff Writer

We've reached the halfway point of the NFL campaign, which means it's midseason awards time. I handed out quarter-season awards after Week 4, and just like last time, I'm trying to use my best judgment on who should win the award based on the criteria typically set by the voters. I'll mention those quirks as we get involved, but in some cases, I'll have to break from tradition if I feel like there's a player deserving of further attention.

Like last time, I'll be listing my top three candidates for the league's major awards, which are officially handed out by the Associated Press. I'll also be giving nods for several awards I'm making up, many of which owe a research debt to the NFL's Next Gen Stats and player-tracking data. Let's begin, though, by running through the options for Coach of the Year:

Coach of the Year
My quarter-season winner for this award was Mike Vrabel, and things haven't exactly gone well for the Titans since then. They started 3-1 and subsequently went 0-3, losing to the Bills, Ravens and Chargers before hitting a post-London bye. A team that kept finding ways to win games lost one game on a last-second field goal and another on a failed two-point conversion. Vrabel isn't a Coach of the Year candidate until the Titans right the ship.

There's a whole other tier of teams whose coaches are consistently great but never get much appreciation for this award. Bill Belichick might deserve to win this award every year. Asshole Face's Saints are 7-1.

Third: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
McVay won Coach of the Year last season and is doing every bit as good of a job in 2018, but nobody has won this award in consecutive seasons since Joe Gibbs in 1982 and 1983. The Rams might have needed to go 16-0 for McVay to win for the second time in two seasons. I think he could win it at 15-1, too, but Sunday's loss to the Saints takes McVay down a peg for the short term.

Second: Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
The one veteran candidate who might be ahead in the running is Reid, given that the Chiefs are 8-1 after replacing Alex Smith with Patrick Mahomes. The longtime Eagles and Chiefs coach is rightly getting credit for bringing Mahomes along and building a devastating scheme around the strengths of both his quarterback and the Chiefs' many weapons.

He hasn't won this award since 2002, when Reid took a 12-4 Eagles team to the postseason, although that was an atypical choice given that the Eagles were coming off of consecutive 11-5 campaigns. Reid was my pick for the award after four weeks last season, but the Chiefs suffered through a 1-6 stretch in midseason before figuring things out. Reid can't do that again and compete for this award in 2018.

First: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears

Instead, I think the favorite is likely the guy to whom Reid handed over playcalling duties during that ugly November run a year ago. Nagy might need to share this award with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio given that the Bears are relying so heavily upon their D, but the first-year coach has done a great job of working with an extremely inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky to create an offense that seems to perpetually generate safe completions with big-play possibilities after the catch. The most likely candidate to win this award is always a first-year coach who leads a team from the bottom of a division to the playoffs, and Nagy is the only candidate who fits that description.

Will Nagy's Bears undergo a fall similar to Vrabel's Titans? If they do, it won't be for the same reasons. The Titans' three wins came by a combined nine points, and each required Tennessee to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We can't say the same thing about the Bears, who led entering the fourth quarter in four of their five victories.

After modest victories over the Seahawks and Cardinals, the Bears have thumped the Bucs, Jets and Bills by a combined 84 points. Big wins over bad teams might not seem impressive, but they're historically a better predictor of future success than narrow wins, even against better competition.

You might argue that the Bears haven't played a tough slate, but it isn't about to get difficult. The Bears had the league's second-easiest remaining schedule by DVOA heading into Week 9, and while the last-placed Bills were a huge part of that equation, the only dominant team left on Chicago's schedule is the Rams in Week 14.

They have home-and-homes left with the inconsistent Vikings and the even more inconsistent Lions, plus a home game against the Packers, and road trips to play the lowly Giants and 49ers. If the Bears can go 5-3 against that schedule, they'll make the postseason and Nagy should win this award.

Play of the Year
If we're looking for the most important play of 2018 so far, the best place to go is ESPN's win expectancy model. The play that produced the biggest swing in win expectancy is the most meaningful one of the first half. When you look at the numbers, it isn't even really a contest.

Not every game-breaking touchdown is a game winner, sadly. The third-place play of the year just came Sunday afternoon, when Brandon McManus missed a would-be 51-yard field goal to win the game against the Texans. Case Keenum had converted a pair of fourth downs in driving the Broncos to the 37-yard line with 43 seconds left, but after using its second timeout, Denver decided to throw a 5-yard pass to Jeff Heuerman before basically sitting on its lead and settling for a long field goal.

Vance Joseph was punished for attempting to ice Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn at the end of the first half, which turned a missed field goal into a make. Research suggests icing the kicker doesn't have any effect, although Joseph probably remembers when he successfully iced Younghoe Koo in his first start against the Chargers in 2017. (The universe ices Chargers kickers.) In a situation in which he could play a much more meaningful role, Joseph had his offense sit on the football and settle for a 51-yard field goal, which isn't close to a sure thing, even in the thin air of Denver. The Broncos had a 66.9 percent chance of winning before the kick, but their win expectancy evaporated entirely with the miss.

The non-special teams Play of the Year belongs to the Bengals. Andy Dalton's 13-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Green against the Falcons in Week 4 capped a 16-play, 75-yard drive by scoring a touchdown with seven seconds left, giving the Bengals a 37-36 lead. The game wasn't over -- the Bengals failed on their two-point try and had to keep Atlanta from scoring -- but Cincinnati's win expectancy jumped by 72.2 percent after the touchdown pass.

Graham Gano's 63-yard field goal against the Giants, which turned a 31-30 deficit into a 33-31 victory for the Panthers with one second left. Carolina's chances of winning rose by a whopping 80.7 percent on the play, as the Panthers suddenly became prohibitive favorites on one of the longest field goals in NFL history. The Panthers only needed to stop the Giants on the subsequent kickoff to ensure a victory, which took them to 3-1 in the NFC.

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Comeback Player of the Year
Honorable mention for this award goes to Andre Hal, who was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in June and has somehow already made it back onto the field for the first-place Texans. Hal is out with a shoulder injury and hasn't played enough to compete for this nod, but if we were measuring what a player has overcome to play football, Hal would be in first place by a considerable margin.

The only player to drop out of the top three after Week 4 is John Brown, and that is because the Ravens haven't been able to consistently feature him. Brown had seven catches on seven targets for 134 yards against the Saints, but otherwise, he has racked up a total of just 129 yards over Baltimore's four other games during that time frame. Brown would be the Ravens receiver most likely to benefit from a quarterback change during the bye, given that Joe Flacco's 55.0 passer rating on deep passes this season ranks 33rd out of 34 qualifying signal-callers.

Third: Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington
Peterson's tenure in Arizona last season ended after a neck injury, but the 33-year-old's presence on this list stems from the fact that he was on the street as late as Aug. 20 and was only signed because Derrius Guicewent down with a torn ACL. Peterson racked up only 33 yards from scrimmage and Washington lost two linemen to serious injuries on Sunday, but the future Hall of Famer has exceeded everyone's expectations.

The former Vikings star has 604 rushing yards and four scores through nine games. Peterson has run for first downs on only 19.6 percent of his carries, which cuts through some of the shine given that he ranks 12th among the 20 backs with 100 carries or more, but he has still been a productive back for a team that looked like it was going to have to beg for a useful back behind Alex Smith.

Second: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

As his offensive line has improved, Luck has begun to grow comfortable under center. The Colts were on bye this week, but from Weeks 5-8, Luck took just one sack on 160 dropbacks. That's unheard of for a player who appeared to be a magnet for pass-rushers as recently as 2016. Opponents were getting pressure on only 23.1 percent of their dropbacks over that time frame, which was the seventh-lowest mark in the league.

Predictably, Luck has responded with excellent play. He's averaging a modest 6.8 yards per attempt, but he has thrown 14 touchdown passes against five picks, completed more than 64 percent of his passes, and posted a Total QBR of 76.6, which is sixth best in the NFL over that span. Not bad when you consider that he was without T.Y. Hilton for two of those games and Ryan Grant for the other two.

First: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
Even if the player who seemed to defy the physics of the interior and time-warp his way through the line of scrimmage isn't quite back, the version of Watt we're seeing in 2018 is still a top-five pass-rusher. He has to rely a little more on that ceaseless motor, and Watt sees fewer double-teams thanks to the presence of Jadeveon Clowney, but the future Hall of Famer is an easy All-Pro pick with nine sacks, 16 quarterback knockdowns and four forced fumbles in nine games.

Miss of the Year
In a year in which quarterbacks are producing record numbers across the board and coaches like McVay and Reid seem capable of scheming open receivers on just about every single snap, there's one element you simply can't escape: You've got to finish the play. With help from NFL's Next Gen Stats, we can actually quantify each pass's chance of being completed. The end result isn't perfect, but it's the best insight we've had so far into each and every pass's chance of success.

For this category, I'm limiting myself to throws traveling 16 or more yards downfield, which is the NFL's definition of a deep pass. The "winner" here is a Jared Goff pass to Cooper Kupp in the Rams' season-opening win over the Raiders. As you can see from the animation below, Kupp looks like he's running a shallow cross before turning upfield on his wheel route. Goff anticipates Kupp coming open and makes his throw, but even with an 85.6 percent chance of completing this pass, the throw is behind the receiver and falls incomplete.

There's another way to define this, and it also includes Goff. The league's Next Gen Stats also measure the distance between a receiver and any opposing defenders when a pass is thrown or lands, to provide a strong estimate of how much separation a receiver has. The most open receiver on an incompletion, by far, came on a Goff pass to Robert Woods against the Cardinals in Week 2.

The Cardinals blew an assignment and left Woods an almost comically easy path to the end zone with 17.2 yards of separation, nearly five more yards of space than any other receiver has had on an incompletion this year. Whether it was Woods hesitating briefly before continuing his fade or Goff simply missing the throw is hard to tell, but the Rams missed what should have been one of the easiest touchdowns of the season:

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Of course, the Rams won both those games comfortably, and Goff is still having a great season. It's also terrifying that the Rams could be among the best offenses in football and still leave meat on the bone.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
This is a four-player race, which obviously makes it difficult to sum up in three spots. I honestly think you could leave off any one of these players and make a case for the other three. As tough as it was given that his team led the league in pass defense DVOA heading into the game, I'm putting Denzel Ward fourth. He has taken on a lot of responsibility in covering No. 1 wideouts, but even before Sunday, when Ward left with a hip injury, the Browns were 24th in DVOA against No. 1 wideouts while allowing them 87.7 yards per game, which ranked 28th in the NFL.

Third: Bradley Chubb, LB, Denver Broncos
After a slow start, Chubb came afire in October. The fourth overall pick racked up 5.5 sacks in five October games and has eight so far this season, which is tied for sixth in the league. Chubb has done that on only 11 knockdowns, which is a tough pace to keep up given that edge rushers will typically turn around 45 percent of their knockdowns into sacks.

His considerable growth during the season suggests that Chubb could continue to improve as the season goes along, though. I haven't seen consistent play from Chubb as an edge-setter or when the Broncos have pushed him out into coverage, but Denver drafted Chubb to take down the quarterback. He's doing that at a Rookie of the Year-level rate.

Second: Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers
Rookie safeties don't often do what James is doing. Usually, even talented first-rounders who go on to lengthy careers struggle as rookies or narrowly keep their head above water. James can do everything from fill-in run support to stand up in coverage against anybody the Chargers face on a weekly basis, and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley asks him to do a little bit of everything from snap to snap and series to series.

He seems to make himself conspicuous doing one thing or another each week; on Sunday, it was racking up 11 tackles against the Seahawks in a game marred only by an unnecessary-roughness call on the rookie safety. He still leads all defensive backs with 3.5 sacks, which has come in handy as the Chargers have missed Joey Bosa.

First: Darius Leonard, LB, Indianapolis Colts

Leonard missed Indianapolis' game against the Patriots, and New England promptly took advantage by throwing for a combined 152 yards and a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski and James White. He missed one running play against the Bills and Buffalo turned it into a 30-yard gain. The Colts aren't a great defense, but how many of their starters can you even name without hoping that Robert Mathis is still in the fold? Leonard has been an immediate difference-maker for a team desperate to find them.

The South Carolina State product continues to fill up the scoresheet, as even after missing a game, he has racked up a league-high 88 tackles to go along with four sacks, three forced fumbles and two pass breakups. To put that tackle number in context, Leonard has been in on the tackle on 19.7 percent of his snaps this season.

Rams linebacker Cory Littleton, who is playing behind arguably the scariest interior defensive line in football, is the only guy with 400 snaps or more within 3.5 percentage of points of Leonard. I don't think Leonard will win, if only because he's playing for a team nobody is really paying attention to and won't rack up a huge sack total, but the second-round pick has been a huge find for Frank Reich and Chris Ballard in Indy.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Somewhat surprisingly, none of the five quarterbacks taken in the first round even merit serious consideration for one of these three spots. The five passers -- Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfieldand Josh Rosen -- have combined to complete just 56.5 percent of their passes while tossing more interceptions (32) than touchdown (29).

Their cumulative passer rating is 72.1 and their Total QBR, buoyed by rushing, is up at 36.3. Jackson doesn't qualify, but the other four rookies stand as four of the five worst quarterbacks in the league by QBR so far this season in a group along with Eli Manning.

Third: Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions
Johnson didn't offer much on Sunday against a stout Vikings run defense, but as the Lions distribute extra touches after trading away Golden Tate, Johnson should be one of the first people in line for more runs. The second-round pick has been a devastating home-run hitter for Detroit, racking up five runs of 20 yards or more on just 89 carries.

The added receiving utility has been a bonus. Johnson never topped 24 catches or 194 receiving yards at Auburn, but he already has generated 24 catches for 165 yards in eight games with the Lions. As long as he doesn't manage to offend Matt Patricia with his posture, the 43rd overall pick should see his role continue to grow during the second half.

Second: Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
The touchdown rate from Weeks 2-4 was never going to be sustainable, although Ridley did get back on the board for the first time since September with a 40-yard catch in traffic and score during Sunday's comfortable win over Washington.

The former Alabama star caught six passes for 71 yards, his second-highest yardage total of the season, and Ridley has caught an even 75 percent of his targets despite averaging nearly 11.2 air yards per attempt. The presence of Julio Jones is a blessing and a curse for his Rookie of the Year chances; Jones keeps the double-teams away from Ridley and opens him up for red-zone opportunities, but with Julio averaging more than 11 targets per game, Ridley might not get the target share to compete.

First: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

Barkley's numbers are inflated, and he should still win Rookie of the Year. Just 21.6 percent of his carries have turned into first downs, which is just below the running back average of 21.8 percent. Barkley has 152 yards from scrimmage in garbage time, when the Giants start drives with no more than a 1 percent chance of winning the game. The only players with more are Chris Ivory (155) and Odell Beckham Jr.. (165).

And yet, you've seen him play and know what I'm talking about. Barkley has six touches for 30 yards or more when nobody else has more than four. He has 348 more yards from scrimmage than any other rookie and is on pace for 2,032 yards from scrimmage, which only Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James pulled off as rookies. The Giants haven't done many creative things with Barkley, as he has caught just four passes which traveled longer than six yards in the air. He is the "Get Out of Jail Free" card for an offense that is tethered to the ground by a horrific offensive line and a quarterback who is crumbling into dust.

Pass of the Year
Just as we used completion probability to figure out the Miss of the Year, we can also use the same stat to figure out which successful pass actually overcame the longest odds to fall into a receiver's hands. Again, I'm going to limit myself to passes traveling 16 yards in the air or more. It's always nice when the numbers match up with the tape and something that seemed almost impossible on film is backed up by player tracking data too.

Even better, this pass actually played a huge role in a game too. Not winning, in this case, but tying one. When Kirk Cousins found Adam Thielen for a 22-yard touchdown against the Packers in Week 2, it brought the Vikings within two points of the Packers with 36 seconds to go after trailing 20-7 at the start of the fourth quarter.

Stefon Diggs tied the score with the subsequent two-point conversion, and after the two teams combined to miss three makeable field goals over the ensuing 15-plus minutes of football, the game ended in a 29-29 tie. Watch the animation and you'll see just how tight of a window Cousins has for this football:

NFL Next Gen Stats estimates that Cousins has just a 12.4 percent chanceof completing this one. It's an inch-perfect throw on a post/wheel concept against man coverage with two deep safeties. Thielen isn't remotely open when the ball is released -- he's level with cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) at the 15-yard line -- but Cousins leads Thielen to the absolute exact spot on the field where he can catch the pass before being hit by safety Kentrell Brice (29). When you consider that was Cousins' second regular-season game with Thielen, the touch and familiarity it took to make this pass is absolutely unreal. What a throw.

Run of the Year
I'm going to use a combination of the Next Gen Stats and the tape to award this one. It's tempting to award this one to Kareem Hunt's 22-yard touchdown in Week 8, where he broke two tackles, hurdled a third, and then dragged a fourth Broncos defender to the end zone for a score on fourth-and-1, but that came when the Chiefs were running a power shovel read concept and threw Hunt a shovel pass. Technically, it's a pass. Sorry, Kareem.

Instead, my Run of the Year is the longest run of the season where a running back went untouched. Those sort of runs can be more about the offensive line than the back, but Isaiah Crowell's 77-yard touchdown against the Broncos in Week 5 is a good balance of both:

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The line does a great job of creating an edge for Crowell, with tight end Chris Herndon (89) sealing Bradley Chubb at the point of attack. The only Jets blocker who doesn't do his job is Robby Anderson, who overruns Chris Harris Jr. No worry. Crowell stretches the play outside Harris, jukes both Bradley Roby and Darian Stewart into the turf, and outruns the defense to the house. Terrelle Pryor throws in a disrespectful stiff-arm of Adam Jones at the end of the play. The Broncos aren't exactly a tough team to run on this season, but the Jets could use some good news on offense after Sam Darnold threw four interceptions on Sunday.

Defensive Player of the Year
History tells us that barring a transcendent season from a player in the secondary or at middle linebacker, this award goes to a pass-rusher. With all due respect to guys like D.J. Swearinger, Stephon Gilmore and Tre'Davious White, nobody in the secondary has stood out quite enough to earn a third-placed nod.

My pick here after four weeks was Khalil Mack, but he falls off the list after an injury-hit October. Mack suffered an ankle injury during the Bears' Week 6 overtime loss to the Dolphins and hasn't been the same since. He didn't record a sack or a quarterback knockdown in either of the losses to the Dolphins or Patriots, and the Bears have wisely sat him out against the inferior Jets and Bills. We all know what a healthy Mack can do, so he can still get back into the running, but an anonymous month certainly hurts his chances dramatically.

Third: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
Garrett was quietly an impact player on a middling defense last season, though he missed a chunk of the season with injuries. This year, Garrett is quietly an All-Pro candidate on the league's best pass defense by DVOA, but they'll likely fall off that mantel after running into the Chiefs on Sunday. No matter. Garrett has been excellent, with nine sacks, 18 knockdowns and three forced fumbles.

He has beaten Alejandro Villanueva for a sack in each of Cleveland's games against the Steelers, and while his other sacks have been against the less notable of the linemen world, Garrett's motor shines through on tape. Even if you think he's blocked, Garrett seems to run his way into second-chance sacks every week. He and Larry Ogunjobi are the best building blocks left from the Sashi Brown reign in Cleveland.

Second: Danielle Hunter, DE, Minnesota Vikings

After 3.5 sacks and four knockdowns on Sunday during Minnesota's twice-annual "What did Matthew Stafford do to the people of Minneapolis?" festival, Hunter now leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks, spotting the 24-year-old a 1.5-sack lead on the competition. And while you could maybe make the case that Hunter benefited from playing alongside Everson Griffen before this season, Griffen missed five games before returning against the Saints in Week 8.

Hunter's performance might not be sustainable -- those 11.5 sacks have come on just 15 knockdowns, which would usually generate something closer to seven sacks -- but he's a legitimate superstar playing for a defense with three high-profile games against the Bears, Packers and Seahawks after its bye. Hunter also gets the Lions again in Week 16 in what could be a showcase game for the LSU product.

First: Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
Donald didn't have a sack against the devastatingly quick release of Drew Brees on Sunday, so the reigning Defensive Player of the Year had to settle for four knockdowns, a tackle for loss in which he might have made Alvin Kamara reconsider football, a pass deflection and a fumble recovery to hand the Rams a short field.

After a slow start to the year, Donald has 10 sacks and 20 knockdowns in his past six games. Hunter has the better sack total, but Donald is such a force of nature on each and every snap he plays in a way that nobody else in football can match right now. If the numbers are close, I lean toward the Rams star.

Longest Touchdown of the Year
An NFL touchdown can only officially go a maximum of 109 yards, given that a player can take the ball in the back of his own end zone and run it all the way past the other team's goal line for a score. Kick returner/goal-line back Cordarrelle Patterson did this for the Vikings back in 2013.

Curtis Samuel took a 33-yard reverse to the house. The longest touchdown of the year, though, unsurprisingly belongs to a Chiefs player. The surprise might be that it came while Patrick Mahomes was on the sideline: It was Tyreek Hill's 91-yard punt return for a touchdown against the Chargers in Week 1, where Hill ran a total of 140.9 yards and got up to 21.8 mph in the process. "Tyreek Hill is fast" isn't exactly news, but in a league in which players have their pre-draft 40-yard dash time quoted as gospel a decade into their careers, putting some fresh numbers on Hill's speed isn't a bad thing.

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Offensive Player of the Year
I'm going to treat that as the award for non-quarterbacks, since there have been years (including 2017) in which the voting has gone in that direction in awarding the best skill-position weapon the trophy. I'm willing to consider a universe in which a running back or receiver is eligible to win MVP, but the season we're seeing from James Conner might be a useful reminder of how even the great backs can be replaced.

I don't think anybody would argue that Le'Veon Bell isn't a better back than Conner, but with a great offensive infrastructure and a healthy half-season, Conner has racked up 1,085 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns on 189 touches through eight games, numbers that compare favorably to what Bell (979 yards from scrimmage and five scores on 229 touches) produced over the first eight games of last season.

In every one of the league's offenses in which a team has a great quarterback and a dominant running back, I think the team would suffer more if it lost its signal-caller than if it lost its ball carrier. Until that changes, I can't give any of them an MVP nod.

Third: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Do you care about the touchdown total? Jones finally did make it into the end zone for the first time this season, taking a screen to the house for a 35-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to seal a win against Washington. It was a fitting cap to yet another 100-yard day for Jones, who has run off four such games in five contests. He's the rare wideout who is so productive that fantasy owners can't even realistically be upset that he hasn't been scoring touchdowns.

We know touchdown rates for wideouts are generally dictated by volume and target location as opposed to innate skill, and if you've seen Julio play, you know skill isn't a problem. More importantly, though, we know that Jones is drawing attention away from other receivers and creating opportunities for the Falcons in the red zone. After their prime-time opening-night debacle in the red zone against the Eagles in Week 1, the Falcons have averaged 6.2 points per red zone trip, the best mark in football. They've done that without Devonta Freeman and are down both of their Week 1 starters at guard. Jones is the sun in that offense.

With even a middling touchdown rate, Jones would be a viable top choice here. He's averaging 116.6 receiving yards per game and attracting targets on 32.3 percent of his routes, both of which are tops among wideouts. Jones is also averaging nearly 14 air yards per target, which is crazy for his usage rate. The only WR1s topping that are Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill, who aren't the same sort of intermediate weapon Jones has been for years. If you can't get past the touchdowns, you're missing greatness.

Second: Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Thielen's streak of games with 100 yards and a touchdown came to an end on Sunday, as he racked up just 22 yards and a score on seven targets during the win over the Lions. The most underpaid veteran in the league will have to settle for entering his bye week with the league lead in receptions (78), receiving yards (947), and first downs (51). It seems like there's going to come a point in which Thielen retreats to earth and is suddenly a mortal wideout again, but over the second half of 2017, Thielen racked up 43 catches for 649 yards and three scores, which isn't exactly anything of which to be ashamed.

I think you'll see a slight decline in Thielen's numbers, if only by virtue of volume. Dalvin Cook's return to health and a likely run of victories against an easier schedule in December should push Minnesota toward a heavier dose of its running game, which would come at the expense of its pass-catching corps. Even then, though, Thielen is going to be a very viable OPOY candidate.

First: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

In a way, I couldn't put backs like Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamaraon this list because Gurley has blown them away with production. Even after his quietest game of the season during Sunday's loss to the Saints, Gurley has 1,230 yards from scrimmage, 145 yards more than the second-placed Conner. Barkley is the only other back to top 1,000 yards. Gurley has 16 touchdowns, which is three ahead of Hunt at 13.

He has 31 more carries than any other back, of course, but the former first-round pick is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and producing first downs on 26.9 percent of his runs. Kamara is the only back with 100 carries or more who tops him there, and Kamara has done it over 111 carries to Gurley's 182. Backs with this sort of volume and efficiency just don't exist anymore.

What would it take for Gurley to win MVP? He had a better shot last season, when the young breakout candidates tore their ACLs and the award fell almost by default to Tom Brady, who is at a natural disadvantage as a former two-time winner. Brady played great and deserved the trophy, but his efficiency numbers were no different from 2015, when he didn't come close to winning, and they were actually down from 2016, when Brady was suspended for four games to start the year.

Gurley has 868 rushing yards and 362 receiving yards to go with 16 touchdowns in nine games, leaving him on pace for 1,543 rushing yards, 644 receiving yards, and 28 touchdowns. That would be one hell of a résumé, but the Rams might sit Gurley if they have nothing to play for in December. Voters haven't really been interested in total yards from scrimmage in years past, but if Gurley can make it to 2,500 and 30 touchdowns, those round numbers might be enough.

Most Valuable Player
We're left with the quarterbacks. Two passers are pretty obviously shoo-ins. The third-place pick was a little tougher. You can pick a flaw in a lot of very good candidates. Brady's interception rate has spiked to the point where he won't be able to repeat. Carson Wentz is two (and in some cases three) games behind the competition, although his rate stats are excellent. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been accurate enough to keep up, which is remarkable given that he has a 64.5 percent completion percentage. (League average is 65.2 percent.) Philip Rivers has thrown only 246 passes, which is good for his arm but keeps him from racking up the cumulative totals to get in the top three.

Two young NFC passers came up narrowly short. Jared Goff is playing well, but he has slipped some after that incredible prime-time game against the Vikings. From Week 5 on, Goff has completed 64.2 percent of his passes and posted a 100.9 passer rating, which is 11th in the league. By Total QBR, his 64.0 mark is 13th. He certainly hasn't been bad, of course, but the standards at the top of the charts here are higher than they've ever been before. He has fallen to fifth in both passer rating and QBR, which is where he ranks here.

I'm also narrowly eliminating Cam Newton, although I've been pleasantly surprised to be totally wrong about Norv Turner and the Panthers' offense this season. Instead of trying to revert to some antiquated offensive scheme, Turner has turned Newton and the offense loose. Plenty of teams run jet sweeps and end-arounds in 2018, but the Panthers mix in reverses and even the rare double reverse for big plays, like the one we saw to Samuel on Sunday.

The only thing I'd fault Newton for in this offense is a relatively conservative passing game. The Panthers have successfully jump-started his completion percentage over 60 percent and all the way to a staggering 67.3 percent, but Newton is averaging just 7.2 yards per attempt, which is below the league average of 7.6 yards per pass attempt this season. He makes up for that to some extent by racking up 355 rushing yards, but even those runs have required 62 carries, which is far more than any other passer. (Those numbers don't include kneel-downs.) His numbers are very good, but they're just a tad below our top three MVP candidates.

Third: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
I recognize that 2018 has been a higher-scoring campaign than 2016, but compare Ryan's first eight games of 2018 with the first eight games of his MVP campaign under Kyle Shanahan in 2016:

Yes, Ryan is not going to get as much consideration because his defense stinks and his team is a distant third at 4-4 in the NFC South, but he has been every bit as good as the guy we saw win MVP two years ago. Keep in mind he was doing that with a better offensive line and Freeman as his lead back in the running game.

This version of Ryan has Calvin Ridley, which helps, but the Boston College product just went five-plus games without an interception before throwing a pick on Sunday afternoon. If the Falcons make their way back into the wild-card hunt in the NFC, Ryan deserves MVP chatter.

Second: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
First: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Let's work through these two together, since they stand apart for me. The most obvious difference is the touchdown total. Mahomes has 29 touchdown passes. Twenty-nine! Brees has 18. Andrew Luck has 23, and nobody else in the league tops 20. The second-year sensation Mahomes is throwing for touchdowns on 9.1 percent of his passes, the second-highest mark in the league behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. The only passer to hit 9 percent in a 500-attempt season is Aaron Rodgers in 2011. Tom Brady didn't do it in 2007. Dan Marino didn't do it in 1984. This is a big advantage for Mahomes.

And then, when you start working through the rest of the categories, Brees picks up advantages, some significant. The veteran has thrown one interception on 279 pass attempts. Mahomes has thrown seven in 317 tries, although his pick on Sunday was essentially a Hail Mary after poor Chiefs clock management. Mahomes is completing 66.2 percent of his passes. Brees is completing 76.3 percent of his throws.

Just as Mahomes is challenging the touchdown record, Brees is threatening to take the completion percentage record and jump it from 72.1 percent by more than 4 percentage points. Completions can be overrated, but 40.9 percent of Brees' completions go for first downs, which is well above the league average of 36.3 percent.

Mahomes is averaging nearly a full yard more per pass than Brees, but a lot of that comes from his receivers' work on screens. Strip them out and Brees is completing 74.9 percent of his passes and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Mahomes is completing 61.9 percent of his non-screen passes while averaging ... 8.7 yards per attempt. Both marks are great. You don't need me to tell you Brees' is better.

Of course, while both teams have excellent weapons, there's a reason I ranked the Chiefs' weapons as the scariest in football before the season. Brees' top two receivers are Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Pretty terrifying. Mahomes gets to work with Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Also scary.

After that, though, Mahomes' next two guys up are Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins. Brees is working with Benjamin Watson and either Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Tre'Quan Smith, depending on when you're judging the arsenals. Brees has Mark Ingram to help in pass protection and a better offensive line given the injuries on the interior for the Chiefs, but Mahomes has more with which to work.

I'm not exactly the QB wins type, but the Saints are 7-1 and the Chiefs are 8-1. The Saints' lone loss came in a game against the Bucs in which Brees put up 40 points and his defense allowed 48 points. The Chiefs' lone loss came in a game in which Mahomes scored 40 points and his defense allowed 43 points to the Patriots. The only thing I might mention is that Mahomes left a couple of would-be touchdowns on the table with bad throws in the first half. It would be foolish to say Mahomes played badly, but it also would be naive to pretend he couldn't have played better given the opportunities at hand.

The case for Mahomes outside of the touchdowns isn't as obvious, at least to me. He has thrown 38 more passes than Brees, the product of not yet having his bye week. Mahomes offers far more with his legs than Brees, as the Texas Tech product has 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries once you remove those pesky kneel-downs from his totals. Brees, ceding touches in the running game to Taysom Hill, has turned nine carries into 34 yards, although he also has two scores on sneaks, which mitigates some of the gap between the two.

At the end of the day, there just isn't much between these two. Brees has a passer rating of 120.6 and a Total QBR of 84.5. Mahomes has a passer rating of 116.7 and a Total QBR of 85.4. They're 1-2 in each category. Maybe I lean toward Brees because the sentimental, sappy side of me wants to see the 39-year-old Brees finally win league MVP before he retires. If you prefer Mahomes, I can't fault you. If Mahomes gets to 56 passing touchdowns and breaks the league record in his first full year as a starter, I'll join you on that side of the fence. For now, though, very narrowly, I lean toward Brees.

http://www.footballzebras.com/2018/11/week-10-referee-assignments-2018/

Seahawks at Rams — John Hussey

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hussey_(American_football_official)

Hussey's 2018 NFL officiating crew consists of umpire Tony Michalek, down judge Kevin Codey, line judge Derick Bowers, field judge Don Willard, side judge Allen Baynes, and back judge Greg Steed.