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Should the Rams sign a FA quarterback or possibly draft one with their 3rd round pick? This will allow a few years time to groom the back up qb under Stafford. The 2nd round should definitely be for a Center or LT.
The work is not done. Here are 4 things that need to happen:
1. Bring back the D.
The Rams need, with limited resources, to figure out how to maintain a great 2020 defense. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are great cornerstones, but we need to keep as much of the supportive cast. I’d sure love to see some cap clearing moves (restructure Stafford?) so we can keep as Leonard Floyd and/or John Johnson, but it could be difficult.
2. Don’t ignore the OL
We still need more size/talent on the interior OL. If we can do so, and provide Stafford with a running game and a clean pocket, the offense could make the jump we’re hoping for.
3. Find a home run hitter.
Stafford will be able to move the chains with Woods, Kupp and Jefferson, but we need a deep threat in the rotation. This should be a good draft to find that guy.
4. Hope for a McVay bump
The rapid improvement of Goff in his first year in McVay’s system was remarkable. Could we see a similar new level of play for Stafford?
Detroit loved Matt Stafford. They gave us a few things to enjoy over on reddit. Now I know we are all split down the middle on this trade. Regardless how you feel Matt Stafford is our QB now. Lets take a moment to get to know him through the eyes of the fans who have cheered him on a decade.
Now that the Rams have traded Goff (I know nobody cares BUT I don’t like the trade!!!) can someone please explain the Rams current/ up-to-date Salary Cap Situation? Way too confusing for me to keep up with it!!!
Ok you uppity, champagne swilling bastids. Time to Name your Favorite Forty. Say you have some Mac and Cheese from Stu's cafe and your need some liquid refreshment to go with it. Pick your finest malt liquor and why....
OK - I APOLOGIZE!!! I know this is another QB thread and that is NOT cool!!! But, I was hoping to see some kind of poll (Maybe, There already is one and I just missed it/I am OLD and my Eyes are Bad!) showing which QB other Rams are hoping and/or thinking will be the Rams next season.
My personal opinion is that Goff and McVay will iron out their differences and Goff will remain the Rams QB next season! Even though Goff hasn’t played great the past couple of seasons I don’t think you would see too many NFL QB’s even try to play with the injury Goff had at the end of the season (Especially, Having to GO TO GREEN BAY!)!
That was definitely a GUTSY/DETERMINED display by Goff!!! Even in a losing effort, Goff deserved a lot of RESPECT for his performance that game!!!
So, I think Goff is still the Rams starting QB next season!
Well, since it's looking increasingly likely that we'll have a new quarterback, here it goes:
Cut:
Kenny Young
Justin Lawler
Nick Scott
(I've decided to keep Okoronkwo for this draft's purpose, but the others aren't a surprise, and all of them save cap.)
Re-sign:
Darious Williams - RFA (second round tender).
Coleman Shelton - ERFA
Travin Howard - ERFA
Raymond Calais - ERFA
JuJu Hughes - ERFA
(Darious Williams gets a tender, and we'll see if a team wants to pay it. Mundt gets an original round tender. Other than that, these are ERFAs.)
Release:
John Johnson III
Leonard Floyd
Troy Hill
Gerald Everett
Malcolm Brown
Josh Reynolds
Samson Ebukam
Johnny Mundt
Derek Rivers
Austin Blythe
Morgan Fox
Jake McQuaide
Kai Forbath
(I hate to let JJ3 and Floyd leave, but both of them could return a third round compensatory pick each - picks that can be used as ammunition to trade up. Hill has been a solid player, but I could see him going for a number 2 cornerback job. Brown should be replaced by Akers, Henderson, and a draft pick. Ebukam hasn't been effective this year and can be replaced by the combination of Hollins, Lewis, Okoronkwo, and two draft picks. Fox will go for a starting role. Blythe, Everett, and Reynolds can all fuck off. Rivers is gone as well, along with Mundt. McQuaide has been great, but I can't see us paying huge money for an aging long snapper. As for Forbath, I'd rather forget he was ever on the team.)
Free Agency:
Tyrell Williams, two years, 10 million overall.
(Yeah, stealing this from Jerry shamelessly because I like the idea. Williams is a tall and speedy receiver who will be cut by the Raiders because he wasn't the top option they were hoping for. But their loss, our gain.)
Artie Burns, one year, one million overall.
(Burns had an ACL tear with the Bears after signing with them as a free agent, and I think we could get him at a cheap price. A former first round pick, I think Burns could fit into this system very well. I'm not sure it would cost a compensatory pick for us, but I think - along with a draft pick or two - he could be a solid replacement for Hill and Williams - yes, I believe that Williams will easily get poached at a second round price.)
Trades:
Jared Goff and Joseph Noteboom to the Indianapolis Colts for 2021 first and 2021 fifth.
(Stealing from Jerry because it makes sense. Noteboom fills the left tackle void, while Goff fills the quarterback void.)
2021 first (Colts), 2022 first, 2022 third, 2023 first, 2023 third, and conditional 2024 fourth to the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson.
(Altering a little bit. I think that the Texans will be satisfied with three first round picks, along with two future thirds, and a fourth that can turn up to a first if Watson wins the Super Bowl.)
Darious Williams signed by the Denver Broncos, we refuse to sign, get second round pick.
(Is this a risk? Sure, but I can see someone with a huge cornerback need sign a player of ours for quite a bit of money. It would suck to lose Williams, but I have a plan.)
A'Shawn Robinson to the Tennessee Titans for 2021 fourth round pick.
(Tennessee needs good players on the defensive line; both DaQuan Jones and Jack Crawford are unrestricted free agents. Robinson could easily fit in the middle of that defense, and we could get much needed salary relief and a pick, to boot. And that's not even mentioning the amount of depth we have on our defensive line; even without Robinson, we have Joseph-Day and Gaines in the middle, Donald and Brockers as other starters, and Michael Hoecht and Jonah Williams ready for large roles - hell, even Marquise Copeland and Eric Banks could find potential roles on the D-line. We can afford to lose Robinson and Fox.)
Robert Woods to the Jacksonville Jaguars for 2021 second (formerly Vikings) and 2021 fourth (Jaguars).
(Will also steal this idea from Jerry because I can definitely see us dealing one of our receivers for a potential deep threat.. Jefferson will fill the void that Woods leaves, Tyrell Williams will start, and there's two other drafted receivers I'm high on.)
Tyler Higbee to the Carolina Panthers for 2021 fourth round pick.
(To me, Higbee is who he is: a decent receiver and a good blocker. His contract is a hold-up, but I think that a team like the Panthers, who desperately need weapons and help for their quarterback, could definitely be interested. And in case, you're worried about us having only Brycen Hopkins and Kendall Blanton at tight end? I say, I have a plan to fix it.)
2021 third (Holmes comp) to the Minnesota Vikings for 2021 fourth (Chicago) and 2021 fourth (Buffalo).
(Minnesota moves up, we move down. Simple.)
2021 third round pick (Fowler comp) and 2021 fourth (Littleton comp) to the Philadelphia Eagles for 2021 third round pick.
(Stealing a bit from Jerry. We trade two picks to the cash-strapped Eagles for a higher pick.)
2021 second (Vikings) to Washington for 2021 second and 2021 third.
(Washington moves up for a wide receiver, while we move down and get picks.)
Draft:
2nd (Broncos) - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State. (6'5", 250 lbs.)
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(Freiermuth's called Baby Gronk for a reason, and it clearly shows. He's a physical do-it-all tight end who has the potential to dominate a game. In my mind, the only reason he's not a first round pick is because of his injury history, but he's flat-out the second best tight end in this class only to Pitts, and if he was healthy, in my opinion, he'd challenge him for that spot. You may wonder why I picked him this high over a cornerback. I say that he's the best player available, and Higbee, as much as I like him, is more of a blocking tight end with decent receiver skills. Freiermuth could potentially be elite.)
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(I'll admit, Meinerz won me over at the Senior Bowl. He dominated his peers in the one-on-one drills, showing no signs that he was once a Division III player. He's big, tough, mobile, everything you could ask for for an interior offensive lineman. He'll require further refinement, but I think that he ends up being one of the higher D-3 players ever selected, even over Ali Marpet, who also dominated. I also think that Meinerz could definitely end up playing center after Corbett leaves, and we'll have our center for at least the next three years.
2nd - Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri. (6'0", 232 lbs.)
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(Bolton is a physical, punishing inside linebacker who should be able to give us quality snaps on all three downs from day one. He's likely shorter than his listed 6'0" height, he's maxed out weight-wise, his coverage doesn't look smooth, and he's had targeting penalties in the past. But he simply gets the job done, and he's an Energizer bunny for the defense.)
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(Even with Bolton in this mock, it can't hurt to take the guy who can also be an elite inside linebacker. Werner has it all: sideline-to-sideline speed and coverage that - while it won't look impressive - does the job, tackling, and great run-stuffing ability. Just a great player to pair with Bolton and the defense.)
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(Radunz is showing up at the Senior Bowl, but there's still a lot of questions that he has to answer. He needs to gain strength for the NFL, and he'll also need to answer questions about his technique and level of competition. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the next successor to Whitworth. He's got the talent for sure.)
3rd - Jordan Smith, OLB, UAB. (6'6", 255 lbs.)
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(Smith was suspended for a credit card scheme at Florida and transferred to UAB. He was absolutely dominant at UAB, has excellent athleticism and length, and is able to drop into coverage and stack-and-shed against the run. He'll need to work on his technique as a pass-rusher, but he's unbelievably skilled, a potential first round pick without the suspension.)
4th (Jaguars) - Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina. (6'3", 205 lbs.)
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(Mukuamu is a tall and lengthy cornerback with great ball skills. He's had questions about his athleticism after being torched by Florida. I think he can stick at cornerback, and he thrives on man-to-man coverage.)
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(I'll be honest: I do not trust Hopkins. I'm sorry, I never liked the pick; I thought - still think - he's way too soft for what we need, and drops too many passes for us to count on in the receiving game. Tremble could be our answer to the Whiners Juszczyk: a do-it-all blocker with good receiving upside. I love how Tremble blocks, I really do. He understands leverage, and has underrated strength. He could be a very good tight end for us.)
4th - (Bears) - Chris Rumph II, ILB/OLB, Duke. (6'3", 225 lbs.)
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(Rumph is someone that @jrry32 mentioned, and after looking at his film...I can see why. He flies all over the field, has an astounding array of pass-rushing moves, a motor that doesn't quit, etc. He's literally the perfect edge rusher, but he'll fall because he's underweight. I'd take him with a fourth.)
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(I'll be honest: Darden is probably one of the two players I want in this draft, even over Nick Bolton. His ability to start, stop, and start again is almost Faulk-like. He's amazing at returns; despite stopping and starting, he'll always net you positive yards. He's explosive, has solid hands, and runs routes well. Yeah, he may be small, but I don't think he's ever missed a game. Count me as wanting him.)
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(Williams is durable, aggressive, and lengthy, causing a lot of pass-breakups. His flaws stem from lack of interceptions and an unwillingness to bite on a double move so much that he'll allow other completions. In a press-man scheme, I can imagine him being a lot better.)
6th - Mike Strachan, WR, Charleston. (6'5", 225 lbs.)
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(Strachan is the player I want in this draft above anyone. He's huge, physical, a former track star, has solid hands and a my-ball mentality, and reminds me so much of Kenny Golladay when he came out. Yes, he has issues with routes and is raw, but he's got oodles of potential, and I want that potential on the Rams.)
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(Martin is not a three-down back. Let's make that perfectly clear. He's a decent blocker...but he does not have the hands to be a threat in the passing game, unless we're talking screens and maybe checkdowns - and even those are iffy. But he's a big physical back who dominated at his level, has breakaway speed, and is quite scary with the ball in his hands.)
Undrafted Free Agents:
Thomas Fletcher, LS, Alabama
(Patrick Mannelly award winner for best long-snapper. I need not explain more.)
Roster (starters = bold / rookies = italics):
QB - Deshaun Watson, John Wolford.
RB - Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Jah-Maine Martin, Raymond Calais.
WR - Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Tyrell Williams, Jaelon Darden, Mike Strachan.
TE - Pat Freiermuth, Brycen Hopkins, Tommy Tremble, Kendall Blanton.
OL - Andrew Whitworth, Quinn Meinerz, Austin Corbett, David Edwards, Rob Havenstein, Bobby Evans, Tremayne Anchrum, Chandler Brewer, Dillon Radunz.
DL - Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Greg Gaines, Michael Hoecht, Jonah Williams.
LB - Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Nick Bolton, Pete Werner, Justin Hollins, Terrell Lewis, Jordan Smith, Chris Rumph II, Travin Howard, Micah Kiser, Christian Rozeboom.
DB - Jalen Ramsey, David Long, Jordan Fuller, Taylor Rapp, Terrell Burgess, Artie Burns, Israel Mukuamu, Rodarius Williams, J.R. Reed, JuJu Hughes.
ST - Matt Gay, Johnny Hekker, Thomas Fletcher.
I did a search on gun topics and I didn't see any. I asked CGI if the subject was verboten, but he said "Go for it. As long as you don't encourage shootiing anybody."
Fair enough.
I'm a Whittier, CA kid. I never touched a fire arm until I had to shoot and test proficiency in the US Navy. I believe we tested with a 1911 .45, a shotgun, and a M-14. I was scared shytless the first time I touched one when I was 18yrs old, but over the years I became familiar with them. When I get the chance, I like to go shoot at a range. I have been wanting a tactical shotgun, meaning a short barrel shotgun (mostly) and I finally got one. It wasn't the Mossberg that I was going for, but those guns are almost impossible to find. It's a high quality knock off Dickinson. I paid $399 for it online and it has a Marine kote (resistant to corrosion), ghost sights, 5 + 1, Pump action 12 gauge. Here it is.
Have you bought a weapon recently? If so, what is it? (pics or it didn't happen!). Also, the shortage of ammunition is crazy and it seems like the prices are WAY too high. Have you found a place for reasonably priced ammo?
Another day, another coach gone from Sean McVay's staff in Los Angeles. According to Mike Silver of NFL Network, Rams assistant offensive line coach Andy Dickerson is leaving L.A. to join the Seattle Seahawks. He will be the team's run game coordinator, working alongside Shane…
With the rumor mill in full swing on quarterback trades and cuts I thought this would be a good time to go over the actual costs of moving players since there is so much confusion around the dollars and cents of these moves both for the teams moving the players and the teams potentially obtaining the players.
Before getting into the numbers I wanted to talk about the aspect of a June 1 trade. This is consistently coming up because of the easier to digest salary cap numbers but let’s just get that one out of the way to start. No team is agreeing in principle to a trade in March and not executing the trade until June. While the offseason programs may again be Covid impacted the fact is the player would miss the offseason and there is always the chance something happens between March and June that could impact it. It would also require the teams looking to trade the players carry them at full cap charge until June 2 which does nothing to help their salary cap. It also requires in many cases renegotiating contracts to move bonuses out of the way. So unless there is an injury that forces a team to trade late I don’t see this as an option for anyone so I am not going to include those scenarios. So with that out of the way let’s look at the players in the rumor mill. Deshaun Watson, Texans
Watson wants out from Houston and has been very vocal about it. He costs just $15.94 million on the salary cap this year and trading him would increase that number to $21.6 million a loss of $5.66 million. There are some complex ways that Houston might be able to reduce that (you can listen to this past weeks podcast for that) but it’s highly unlikely that happens. The only way they make this trade is if the relationship is beyond repair. Watson’s contract would be desirable for any team in the NFL. The cap charges for the acquiring team would be $10.54 million, $35 million, $37 million, $32 million, and $32 million. That works out to a five year, $146.54 million contract, an average of $29.308 million a year. The team can restructure that deal for more equal cap hits if they want. Almost every team in the NFL would take that deal but Houston shouldn’t want to give that up.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
The Packers drafted Jordan Love in 2020 which seemed to signal that they think the end is coming for Rodgers. Considering he will be 38 in 2021 and 39 in 2022 that is probably a reasonable assumption. Rodgers played great this season and should win the MVP award but was clearly frustrated following this week’s loss in the playoffs which started the trade speculation. Rodgers will cost Green Bay $37.202 million on the cap if he is on the team and $31.556 million if traded. Considering the team just invested a ton of money in their left tackle and will likely invest a ton of money in their wide receiver, it would make no sense for Green Bay to not have at least one more year with Rodgers and that group. Rodgers situation reminds me a little of Tom Brady’s at the end of his run in New England when after years of not complaining about his contract he began to feel slighted by the organization and became more of an issue. The Patriots added incentives into the contract to make the sides happy and something like that could work here, especially since the Packers will likely wind up restructuring this contract for cap relief even though they will want to maintain a trade window for 2022 and 2023.
A team acquiring Rodgers would take on cap hits of $22.72 million, $25.5 million, and $25.5 million over the next three years. This is pretty much right in line with the salaries for older quarterbacks- Brees, Brady, and Rivers have all been on $25 million a year deals- so it’s fair value. A team really enamored with Rodgers might offer more money to extend the term but I’m not sure they could justify the five year value for the team jumping far above these numbers. This move makes little sense for Green Bay the way I see it. Jared Goff, Rams
Goff has fallen far enough the last two years to where he is going to be criticized because of his contract value as much as his play. The Rams GM would not openly commit to him, but the numbers here only play out for the Rams if they can find a trade partner. Goff counts $34.95 million on the salary cap in 2021 and cutting him would cost the Rams an obscene $65.2 million($49.8M as a June 1 designation) while cutting him a check for $43 million so let’s not talk about cuts because they cut Todd Gurley. This is a completely different animal when it comes to salary. Trading Goff, however, would cost $22.2 million if executed before the 2nd day of the league year, and $24.7 million if executed after that date which is reasonable if they have another QB they can acquire.
The question is would anyone want him? Assuming the trade is made at the earliest date the cost for Goff would be $28.15 million in 2021, $26.15 million in 2022, $25.65 million in 2023, and $26.65 million in 2024. The team would certainly be on the hook for his entire 2021 salary and $15.5 million of his 2022 salary with the balance of his 2022 salary becoming guaranteed in early 2022. Essentially this is a 4 year, $26.65 million per year contract with $54.3 million guaranteed. That’s not terrible but may be looked at as too pricey especially since he would likely be going from the Rams to a team just like the Rams- a decent team without access to a better QB. So I’m not sure who would see the upside unless the Rams picked up some of the cost or included a draft pick. Unless the Rams can get someone like Watson or Rodgers in a trade that seems counter-productive. You cant rule it out but I would lean more toward him remaining. Carson Wentz, Eagles
I’ve gone over Wentz multiple times before so I won’t spend a lot of time on it. Wentz costs the Eagles $34.67 million on the cap in 2021 and $33.8 million if traded before the 3rd day of the league year and $43.8 million if traded after that date. The cost to cut Wentz is $59.22 million prior to June 1 and $34.67 million if designated a June 1 cut. Wentz earns a $15 million guarantee for 2022 if he is on the roster on the 3rd day of the league year as well. A team acquiring Wentz would carry cap hits of $25.4 million, $22 million, $25 million, and $26 million so four years for and average of $24.6 million a year with $47.4 million guaranteed (Yes its less if the Eagles pay that $10 million but that would not makes sense for them from a cap standpoint). So this is a better contract to take on than the Goff contract but there are probably more questions with Wentz than Goff. Goff you know is serviceable. The Wentz we saw last year was not. A trade makes some sense for Philadelphia but they would be best off restructuring the deal for cap relief and seeing if he can be traded the following season or coached back to a higher level of play. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
This was a hot topic at the start of the season but died down when Cousins began to play better. Cousins count’s for $31 million on the Vikings cap this year and $20 million if traded, a savings of $11 million. Cutting would cost the team $41 million so that isn’t really an option and I cant imagine one that the Vikings would consider at all. The reason for Minnesota to consider a trade this year is because the cost to the acquiring team would be $21 million this year and $35 million next year. $56 million over two years is an affordable NFL contract, even with the amount being fully guaranteed. However, $35 million in 2022 is not an affordable deal for a team unless Cousins really ups his stock. This is probably a longshot as the Vikings would have to embrace a tear down if they did this. Like with Goff it would also require finding a team in a similar position as Minnesota where they have been ok but not great with Cousins. Teams like San Francisco, Chicago, and Indianapolis I guess would have some interest but it’s a low ceiling kind of move. Matt Ryan, Falcons
The hiring of Arthur Smith should pretty much put an end to this speculation if it wasn’t dead already. Ryan’s contract really doesn’t work in a trade for Atlanta who is hard up against the salary cap this year. Ryan counts for $40.9 million on the salary cap this year and even if traded would cost the Falcons $44.4 million, more than his current cap number. There is a path to make that work but it would require 10 more dominoes to fall and basically going into a full rebuild but with Julio Jones on the roster. Teams would love to have him with salaries of $23 million, $23.75 million, and $28 million but this doesn’t work for the Falcons in my opinion. It might in 2022 but we can talk about that next year. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
Jimmy G will cost the 49ers $26.9 million on the salary cap in 2021 and would cost the team just $2.8 million if cut. Garoppolo has missed 23 games in the last three years with injuries and has a lower ceiling than players like Goff and Cousins. I’m only mentioning him here because people bring his name up as a trade chip for the 49ers but he would cost a team $25.5 million in 2021. Imagine if a player like Garoppolo was a free agent off of all these injuries. Would a team sign him to a $25.5 million a year contract? No chance. He also has a no trade but Im sure he would waive that if someone paid him this full salary. San Francisco should have looked at the veterans last year and while I understand why they didn’t given the Super Bowl appearance they should upgrade this year, but would wind up cutting their current QB in the process, not trading him. Matt Stafford, Lions
Stafford is the only player on this list that will be a lock to be traded given that the Lions and he have already agreed to part ways. He and Ryan were often lumped together this season as trade candidates but Stafford’s contract was more amenable to a trade. Stafford counts for $33 million on the Lions salary cap and will cost $19 million in dead money when traded or cut, a savings of $14 million. Some people have speculated that the Lions putting it out there that they are done with him will kill his trade value but I don’t see that. Stafford is just 33 years old and you are going to trade for a contract that will cost just $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. As a matter of perspective Kirk Cousins just signed an extension for two years that costs $66 million, so it would cost a team far more in salary to sign him as a free agent than to trade for him. Odds are he will get a three year extension but with the $46 million locked in, even a three year, $105 million extension would work out to be $30.2 million a season.
The Lions do have a deadline for a trade, as Stafford has a $10 million roster bonus due on the 5th day of the league year. That is another reason to put him out there early as this is a situation where you want to agree to a trade in the next two to three weeks and then execute at the start of free agency. It’s better to let teams like the Colts know they can come get Stafford before they really get into their offseason planning while waiting to find out if the Lions are or are not keeping Stafford. I would expect this to be finalized in a few weeks.
The marquee names of free agency often do well, but they come at a premium price. The best business comes on cheaper contracts for players who have some risk attached to them. And if they pay off, they represent outstanding value.
www.pff.com
Under-the-radar NFL free agents to target in the 2021 offseason | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF
NFL free agency is billed like a Black Friday sale. There is a frantic crowd at the front door for the biggest items that people believe represent the best deals to be had. But the best business almost always happens later on, in the second wave of contracts signed.
The marquee names of free agency often do well, but they come at a premium price. The best business comes on cheaper contracts for players who have some risk attached to them. And if they pay off, they represent outstanding value. That’s what really propels a roster forward.
With the NFL salary cap no longer projected to continue its endless ascent due to fallout from the impact COVID-19 has had on revenues, it's important now more than ever to spend money wisely.
With that in mind, here are some of the best under-the-radar free agents teams should be targeting while the rest of the league takes aim at the big names.
OL Matt Feiler
Many offensive lines across the league are not in great shape, and even teams that are in a good spot with their starting fives have real problems if they’re ever forced to use a bench player. Pass protection is about the weakest link, not how strong the best players are, so there is huge value in having a viable baseline at every position. Teams that don’t have one should always be in the market for a player who could change that.
Matt Feiler has started for the Steelers at two different spots along their offensive line over the past two and a half years, and he's been good at right tackle and above average at left guard. He is just 28 years old, and while he can have bad games and will likely never become an All-Pro, he has never earned an overall PFF grade worse than above average in the NFL. That represents a massive upgrade for some teams that haven’t been able to find even an average player at certain spots on their line for years.
Feiler is a poster child for a value free agent signing that could prove to be one of the best pieces of business done this offseason.
CB Mike Hilton
Mike Hilton represents another potential bargain of free agency because he has a couple of different things working against him. He is hitting free agency coming off the worst individual season of his NFL career, ending 2020 with a mere 62.8 overall PFF grade. Even in a down year, the worst single-game grade he had was in his final contest — a 32.7 mark in the playoff loss to Cleveland.
Hilton is also battling the perception that slot corners are still less valuable than they truly are. Because those players can’t play on the perimeter like true boundary corners, they are still thought to be lacking something as opposed to recognizing the unique nature of their position and responsibilities as distinct from outside corners.
Hilton has a track record of excellent play from the slot (PFF coverage grades of at least 72.0 for three straight seasons) and will be only 27 years old at the start of next season. There are teams with a major weakness in the slot, and Hilton would solve that woe.
CB Troy Hill
Troy Hill has shown impressive versatility during his time with the Rams, playing on the outside but then moving inside to the slot to make way for Darious Williams this season.
Hill is a great example of the dynamics at play between size, athleticism and role within a defense. PFF College grading identified him as an extremely capable cover guy coming out of UAB, but at 5-foot-11 and under 190 pounds, he is just dramatically overmatched against some of the physical freaks at wide receiver in the NFL. A player like D.K. Metcalf has 40 pounds, four inches in height and two-tenths of a second in the forty-yard dash over Hill in advantage, and there’s no offsetting that with technique or savvy.
But if Hill goes to a team that can protect him from those players — a side that already has an established No. 1 corner like Jalen Ramsey — he can be a high-end coverage player against No. 2 receivers. In 2019, Hill allowed just a 54.7 passer rating when targeted as Ramsey took care of the most dominant receivers. He allowed just 45% of passes into his coverage to be caught before moving into a slot role in 2020. From there, he put together a solid campaign despite an explosion of passing league-wide.
CB Quinton Dunbar
While players like Troy Hill and Mike Hilton have limitations in what they can do at the cornerback position, Quinton Dunbar has legitimate No. 1 corner upside. Yet, he has a very small sample size of playing at that level, with significantly more up-and-down play and a lot of missed time.
Critically, the one season in which Dunbar posted elite-level play was also the one in which he played more than 400 snaps (2019). That year, Dunbar allowed just a 56.9 passer rating into his coverage, picking off four passes and notching four pass breakups on his way to an 89.5 PFF coverage grade.
He dealt with legal issues and then injuries this season, his first in Seattle, and wound up with the worst PFF grade of his career by some distance despite a scheme that should have been an ideal fit for his skill set. Dunbar will still be only 29 years old by the time next season rolls around, and he would represent a classic case of buying low on a player with significantly more upside than might be obvious.
C Austin Reiter
The NFL is always chasing dominance on the offensive line, but in truth, solidity is more important — it can lead to excellent value on players that don’t tick the boxes the league wants them to, particularly if they weren’t high draft picks.
This sums up Austin Reiter, a seventh-round draft pick by Washington back in 2015. He has been the starting center for the Kansas City Chiefs for the past two seasons and has never had an overall PFF grade worse than solid during his NFL career.
In a league continuing to trend ever-more pass happy, Reiter’s pass blocking has also been the stronger facet of his game, with three straight seasons of at least a 77.5 PFF grade in that area. Reiter will likely never be a superstar, but he is assuredly solid at a key pivot point along the offensive line and will be dramatically underrated because he isn’t a dominant force inside.
Some teams have endured sub-standard center play for years, and a player like Reiter would likely be a cheap but significant upgrade for them.
WR Nelson Agholor
I’ll be the first to admit that taking a swing on Nelson Agholor is not without risk. We are talking about a receiver who became a viral meme when a Philly bystander threw him under the bus while talking about saving kids from a fire.
Only two of his six NFL seasons have been any good, and even those two years were dramatically different in terms of how he was deployed and used. In 2017, Agholor was primarily a shallow weapon running crossing patterns from the slot. His average depth of target was 9.7 yards downfield. With the Raiders this season, however, he looked more like the player he did in college at USC — a dangerous deep threat. His average depth of target was almost six full yards deeper down the field — even more if you include plays nullified by penalty — and he was significantly more productive because of it, averaging 6.6 yards more per reception and 0.4 yards per route run.
Agholor is 27 years old and coming off a career year, but this is an excellent free agent class and draft crop of receivers, which will likely push him down the pecking order. Add in the uncertainty over the rest of his career and the fact that teams will likely be looking to spend more wisely than in the past, and Agholor could be a cheap gamble for a team hoping to unlock the same player we saw this season.
EDGE Romeo Okwara
It often takes pass rushers some time to get acclimated to the NFL level, particularly if they weren’t phenomenal prospects coming out of college. Romeo Okwara was an undrafted player back in 2016 before finding his way to the Detroit Lions and seeing some extensive playing time over the past three seasons.
Those seasons weren’t spectacular, and he never earned an overall PFF grade above 70.0, but there is certainly reason for optimism looking at his pass-rush stats from 2020. He finished with an 85.4 PFF pass-rushing grade, by far the highest of his career, and his final five outings of the year included three dominant games and a very good one.
Okwara notched 61 total pressures — another major jump from his previous career-high. At 25 years old, he is exactly the kind of player who could have his best football in front of him. And he may not necessarily be as high on the shortlist of some teams as other higher-profile edge rushers.
DI Deatrich Wise Jr.
There are many reasons to shy away from a player like Deatrich Wise Jr. Leading up to 2020, he saw his playing time reduced each year in New England. That was before a spate of injuries and opt-outs effectively handed him more playing time by default, but his career lays out pretty clearly that he can rush the passer effectively. Over the past two seasons, he has 73.0-plus PFF pass-rushing grades and 57 total pressures from 452 pass-rushing snaps.
If Wise played for anyone other than the Patriots, he would likely have been a significantly bigger part of the defense because of the pressure he can generate. However, the Patriots still care about setting a hard edge in the run game and pass-rushing to contain more than they do a player who can just beat his man and attack. Wise has a top-10 pass-rush win rate (19.8%) among all edge and interior defenders over the past two seasons, placing him among the best players in the game.
Wise likely isn’t as good as that, but it's a data point that should have a pass-rush-needy team sniffing around to see if they can uncover a gem.
EDGE Aldon Smith
It briefly seemed as though Aldon Smith’s return to the NFL was going to be genuinely spectacular. Through five weeks of the season, he had 25 total pressures, two more than T.J. Watt, and was coming off a nine-pressure game against the Giants.
The rest of his season paled in comparison, and he heads into free agency without much hype or fanfare. We shouldn’t let the change in perception change his potential future, however. Smith played his first football since the 2015 season, and to come out of that with an above-average overall PFF grade (66.3) is an impressive achievement in and of itself. That he is still just 31 years old — and now with a year of football under his belt, as well as a year of staying out of trouble — makes him an interesting option for a team needing reinforcements on the defensive line.
There were several teams in 2020 for whom Aldon Smith would have been a welcome addition, and those squads may want to look to secure him for a bargain price as contingency for 2021.
LB Denzel Perryman
Run-stuffing linebackers aren’t exactly as coveted as they once were. Gone are the days where a 250-pound strongside linebacker would spend all game meeting 250-pound fullbacks in the hole and execute a series of car crashes all afternoon for a living.
The game has evolved. Fullbacks have virtually died out, and run-stuffing linebackers are an endangered species because of it. But players who can lay the wood will always have a role on an NFL defense, and because of that landscape, it’s cheaper than ever before to snag one.
Denzel Perryman hits harder than pretty much any linebacker in the game and is coming off the best overall PFF grade (83.3) of his career. He has never played more than 500 snaps in a season and has been average at best in coverage for most of his career, but he could provide a clear upgrade for one of the several teams with basically no viable rostered linebackers.
Darious Williams brings consistency after breakout third season | Free Agent Spotlight
Rams cornerback Darious Williams showed flashes of being someone future defensive coordinator Brandon Staley could count on opposite Jalen Ramsey when afforded playing time late in the 2019 season – moments Staley would directly point to five months later in the offseason when asked about his impressions of members of the secondary he would be inheriting.
Williams then put together a breakout 2020 season in which he finished with the most interceptions on the team in the regular season, plus another in the playoffs to help Los Angeles advance to the divisional round.
Now, Williams is scheduled to become a restricted free agent when the new league year begins on March 18.
So what are the options for Williams and the Rams this offseason?
Start first with what the restricted free agent designation means.
A restricted free agent is a player with three accrued seasons and an expired contract. While they are free to negotiate and sign with any NFL team, their original team has the ability to offer them one of many different qualifying offers, or tenders, that come with the right of first refusal and/or draft-pick compensation. (More details on those types of offers can be found here – note that associated values are specific to the 2020 offseason and subject to change in 2021.)
A restricted free agent becomes an unrestricted free agent if he does not receive an offer sheet, or if a team withdraws the tender. While the deadline to submit those tenders is not yet official, it was the start of the new league year last year. Based on NFL Network's Tom Pelisserro's report from Nov. 18, that would be 1 p.m. pacific time on March 18. Peliserro's reported tentative offseason schedule also has April 23 as the last day of the restricted free agent signing period, with April 28 the final day for teams to match offer sheets to restricted free agents.
In essence, the Rams have until the start of the new league year to submit a tender for Williams, who would still be free to negotiate with any NFL team while tendered. If Williams signs an offer sheet with another team, the Rams would have the option to match the offer sheet to keep him, or decline it and receive compensation based on the type of tender. If the Rams do not submit a tender on Williams prior to the March 18 deadline, he becomes an unrestricted free agent – though that would be a surprising decision.
While declining to match an offer sheet from an opposing team could save some money, and potentially allow the Rams to find a cheaper replacement depending on compensation – or even through the draft, with or without a pick received in return – there's no guarantee that new player develops similarly to Williams. Plus, when a team has to face Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson each twice a year, there's an understood premium on having experience at cornerback, especially two shutdown-caliber ones.
Considering Los Angeles' next defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, cut his teeth as a defensive backs coach early in his NFL career and likely understands the value of the position, it's not a stretch to think bringing back Williams would be most advantageous for him and L.A.
I am wondering what our most valued trade pieces are? I know we have a trade thread, and it’s been talked ‘round about... so not talking about a trade, just our chips-in-hand.
So... tying some things together... what does Snead have in hand that are realistic premium trade pieces?
SUPER PREMIUM - NOT AVAILABLE
Donald
Ramsey
Etc...
SUPER PREMIUM - AVAILABLE?
D. Williams
Rams 2022 1st Rounder
This is a sample list... What do we have that other teams would realistically covet, and the Rams would realistically entertain?
I get “everything is on the table”... But how would we pull off a splash move?
I might argue our 2022 first rounder is only Super Premium in a package. So... not sure I see a lot of trade juice here..., but also writing this topic because I am curious what others see.
Rams have big decisions to make on pending defensive free agents
An accomplished 2020 season saw the Rams defense not only finish No. 1 in the NFL in fewest yards and points allowed per game, but also saw several of its members post career or breakout campaigns.
Los Angeles would like to keep all of those standout performers, of course, but with salary cap limitations – including an anticipated reduction league-wide – it will be facing some big decisions with the likes of safety John Johnson III, cornerback Troy Hill, outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, and defensive lineman Morgan Fox scheduled to become unrestricted free agents, and cornerback Darious Williams a restricted free agent.
"The main thing is to try to get it right, because as you mentioned there's a lot of names there," Rams general manager Les Snead said during a video conference Tuesday. "And there's the salary cap and there's a cap that's going down. So it's always a puzzle, it's really a calculus formula. It's a tough algorithm to build, because the simple thing to say is, look, any player that's helped us – John Johnson made an interception that helped us go to the Super Bowl. A guy named Dante Fowler probably caused the interception, but we weren't able to bring him back last year, but Leonard Floyd comes in. So that's just part of the NFL."
Each of those five players played pivotal roles on the Rams' top-ranked defense.
Johnson was the on-field defensive signal-caller for former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. He led the Rams in total tackles with 105 and added eight pass breakups and an interception to his regular season stat line. In addition to that role and the corresponding production, Johnson's versatility and playmaking ability made him a valuable member of the Rams defense.
"I mean, he had the green dot, where he was the communicator, that's something that I value so much in terms of the different intricacies of what we were doing defensively from a schematic-perspective," Rams head coach Sean McVay said during a Jan. 17 video conference. "He's a guy that was incredibly instrumental in a lot of the success we had defensively. He became a big-time team leader for us. I think you really saw him grow a lot this year and we put a lot on him and he showed why he was more than capable."
Elsewhere in the secondary, Hill proved he was capable of playing the slot or outside opposite Ramsey and also had a nose for the football, coming up with three of the team's four defensive touchdowns in the regular season.
"Troy Hill, what can you say about the ball production, scoring the touchdowns that he did, the versatility," McVay said. "I think a lot of the versatility that we were able to activate with Jalen was a reflection of also Troy Hill's versatility."
Ramsey, a First Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection this year who has said this year was the best body of work he's put out in the NFL, credited Hill for being a part of that.
"Without him and his versatility and him being able to play inside and outside, I wouldn't be able to be who I was this year," Ramsey said during a Jan. 17 video conference.
Up front, Floyd was a key piece to the Rams' pass rush with a career-high 10.5 sacks, all while playing on a one-year, proverbial "prove-it" deal. Fox posted a career-high six sacks and was also someone the Rams counted on as the next man up in Week 17 when Michael Brockers was on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
"We know that Fox is going to step up and continue to play at a high level, like you've been doing all year," defensive lineman Aaron Donald said in Week 17. Fox followed those comments with four total tackles (two for loss), one sack, and one QB hit in an 18-7 playoff-clinching win over the Cardinals.
Williams, meanwhile, emerged as a shutdown corner opposite Ramsey with a team-leading and career-high four interceptions.
"He's got all the skills and characteristics you're looking for," McVay said during a Nov. 20 video conference. "I love his mental makeup. And you just see the athleticism and you talked about it in the team meeting today. I mean, all four of his picks have been huge parts of three wins that we've had this year."
Snead said he and McVay have already had preliminary conversations about pending defensive free agents they want to prioritize bringing back, and will resume those discussions in mid-February.
"You would love to build a dream team, per-se, but you can't," Snead said. "So our goal this year is to sit down in February, and probably right over about a four-week span, really calculate that formula."
I've put this off for a while and some ideas have been put forward by others but I'll try to be a little original. This is just what I would do with my take on the team as it is. Not a lot of trades really just one involving a player. I also am going forward with the assumption that the salary cap maintains it's current level for a year or two so we just do a restructure with either AD or Ramsey to provide some cap room.
Free agents
Not resigning:
OLB Leonard Floyd
SS John Johnson III
CB Troy Hill
OL Austin Blythe
HB Malcolm Brown
TE Gerald Everett
WR Josh Reynolds
OLB Samson Ebukam
TE Johnny Mundt
Resigning:
LS Jake McQuaide
CB Darious Williams
ILB Travin Howard
OL Coleman Shelton
DE Morgan Fox
That's a lot not being brought back and while I'd love to bring back Floyd I think he is just too expensive in the end and we can replace brown. The rest are pretty standard.
Trades:
Joe Noteboom to the Jets for a 5th round pick #137
We move on from a guy that's largely been disappointing or injured and the Jets get a guy they can try at RT or use as a swing tackle. I was a big supporter of his for a long time but the injuries for me just became too much so I'm willing to move on from him.
Rams trade a 3rd round comp pick to the Browns for their 1st selection in the 4th round and their 5th round pick. Browns see a DB they want and move up to get him.
This gives us a 2nd round pick, 2 picks in the 3rd, 4th round a 5th rounds and one in the 6th and 7th.
John Feliciano Guard
He got beat some by Chris Jones in the AFCCG but then most everybody does get beat by him. He's capable at both Guard and Center but I think we'll slide him in at RG and move Corbett inside.
Ryan Kerrigan OLB Washingotn. He has a very big cap hit coming and two young studs in front of him making him expendable. There is a possibility he retires or resigns there on the cheap because he's mentioned he wants to end his career in Washington. But for the purpose of this mock I'm signing him for our yearly free agent to come in and get 10+ sacks behind AD.
My guy to be the future LT. He'll come in and compete with Edwards at LG and learn next to Whitworth for a year. He's off to a good start at the Senior Bowl and could rise up the draft boards but most of what I see has him in the mid 2nd round range.
With no trade up for one of the Ohio St LB I'm going with Fields. I know he's been mocked before but this is a guy who can come in and play his rookie year. He'll come in and compete with Kenny Young for snaps.
More of a press corner but has some zone ability but he's a very good returner. I think he can come in and compete with Daeyon and Long and Burgess as our 5th DB but he should be our kick returner day 1.
Brings in some much needed speed at the WR position. He's 6'2" and 186 lbs with some room to get stronger but has good speed and in space is able to make things happen. With Thomas coming in to return kicks Ihmir also could compete there or be the punt returner. This guy should add some sizzle to the offense.
Shorter back with some thickness not a burner. Can work his way up the depth chart replacing Brown. Needs to work on pass pro but can gain yards between the tackles.
Another Senior bowl player and even though the Rams won't be there we know Snead loves guys playing in these games. At 6'6" 312 lbs he's got good size and comes in to be depth at Guard. He's good in pass protection but Kromer will work on him in the run game to be more consistent there.
More of a box safety but not weak in coverage. Comes in a depth behind Burgess, Fuller and Rapp along with Scott. Will contribute on ST while learning.
Good blocker and receiver but wasn't utilized a lot at KState until this past season. Could come in and compete with Blanton and Hopkins behind Higbee.
Projected Starters
QB: Jared Goff
HB: Cam Akers
WR: Cooper Kupp
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Van Jefferson/Ihmir Smith Marsette
TE: Tyler Higbee
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Dillon Radunz/David Edwards
C: Austin Corbett
RG: John Feliciano
RT: Rob Havenstein
DE: Michael Brockers
NT: Sebastian Joseph-Day
DE: Aaron Donald
OLB: Terrell Lewis/Ade Okundeji
ILB: Micah Kiser/Troy Reeder
ILB: Troy Fields/Kenny Young
OLB: Ryan Kerrigan/Justin Hollins
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Darious Williams
CB: David Long Jr./Terrell Burgess/Ambry Thomas/Daeyon
FS: Jordan Fuller
SS: Terrell Burgess/Taylor Rapp
K: Matt Gay
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide
KR: Ambry Thomas
PR: Ihmir Smith Marsette
There probably isn't a part of the pre-draft process that the Rams put more stock in than the Senior Bowl. Every year, they find key contributors from the game in Mobile, drafting players such as Cooper Kupp, Jordan Fuller, John Johnson, Gerald Everett and Terrell Burgess…
Our impression of Sean McVay is dictated by the public image that has been cultivated by the Rams and the media. He's a young, enthusiastic, smart, football prodigy who has taken the league by storm, rejuvenated a long-suffering franchise, come within a whisker of a championship, and launched the career of several of his deputies.
But is that really who Sean McVay is?
For the record, my personal answer is I DON'T KNOW.
That said... are there asshole indicators we're overlooking. We've seen, for example, some Belichickian subterfuge and misdirection when it comes to the status of injured players and, when questioned about it... Sean has been less than forthcoming.
Did I say less than forthcoming? Hell, he outright lied. He told us there was nothing wrong with Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald, respectively, as they sat on the sideline for much of the 2018 NFC Championship game and this year's divisional round matchup. Does he think we're idiots? That's kind of an asshole move, if you think about it.
And what about all those departures? Sure, most of them can be filed under "career advancement," but maybe some of them just didn't much care for working under McVay?
And what about that fiance of his? Stringing her along... not committing... I mean, her biological clock is ticking (THUMP, THUMP, THUMP) and if she has to wait until Sean wins a Super Bowl, she maybe ain't never gonna get married!
I'm, of course, being a bit facetious here, but you never know. Maybe Sean's not such a nice guy. Maybe he's an asshole.
Of course, that's not necessarily a bad thing for the team. Belichick is an asshole. A lot of great coaches are.
Ok draftniks, I think some of you might be missing one scenario. It’s possible Mcvay believes in Wolford and is willing to roll the dice with The Wolf in order to spend cap on other positions.
Just a hunch but with Wolf being in the system and the look on Mcvays face and the excitement in his voice after The Cardinals game, this scenario might in play.
I don’t start my scouting until much later than most of you so don’t have an opinion on any of the college players.
So someone mock me an offseason that includes the following:
Trading Goff to offload his contract
Giving the reigns to Wolford but allowing for a very cheap backup if you want.