Caution
If you feel like reading a article, from a writer who thinks the team who gave up 30 pts a game,ranked 29th
in the league last year is gonna be the #1 ranked for 2021 then this is the article for you.
Ranking every NFL defense from 1 to 32 going into the 2021 season
Sheil Kapadia Aug 4, 2021
Defensive performance year over year can be volatile. The New England
Patriots ranked first in defensive efficiency in 2019 but slid all the way down to 26 in 2020. The
Washington Football Team was 27th in 2019 but moved all the way up to third last season.
So which defenses will have similar jumps or falls in 2021? Here’s a ranking that projects the best and worst defenses, from one to 32. Note that rankings from last season are from
Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Last season: 18th
It’s pretty simple to explain away the Vikings’ struggles last season. They had the third-worst injury luck of any defense, according to
Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost metric, and they had the most injured defensive line. The Vikings didn’t get a single snap from edge defender
Danielle Hunter or defensive tackle
Michael Pierce.
This year, not only are both players back, but Minnesota added
Dalvin Tomlinson and
Sheldon Richardson. With
Eric Kendricks and
Anthony Barr still in the mix at linebacker, the Vikings project to have one of the league’s top front sevens. There are some questions on the back end, but the Vikings added veterans
Patrick Peterson,
Bashaud Breeland and
Mackensie Alexander to give themselves options at cornerback.
Cameron Dantzler figures to improve in his second season.
On paper, it’s probably not the most talented group, but coach Mike Zimmer is one of the smartest defensive minds in the
NFL. The Vikings finished first, third and fourth in defensive efficiency from 2017 to 2019. Barring another bout of terrible injury luck, they’re talented enough to get back into that range this season.
Last season: 13th
They were slightly above average last year, and now the Broncos get to add
Von Miller (injured last season), cornerback Kyle Fuller and first-round pick
Patrick Surtain II. They signed
Ronald Darby too, giving them the depth to play dime (six defensive backs) if they want to go that route.
Vic Fangio has established himself as one of the NFL’s best defensive coaches. He schemed things up last year, and the Broncos’ defense ranked third in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model when they blitzed. Fangio will disguise his looks to muddy the picture for opposing quarterbacks, and he knows how to game plan against different types of offenses.
The Broncos are well-coached and talented. That mix should produce one of the league’s top defenses.
Last season: 5th
We probably don’t need a whole lot of analysis here. They were a top-five defense last year and were able to retain all of their starters. The Bucs also added a nice pass-rush option with first-round pick
Joe Tryon, who offers big upside and should fill a rotational role immediately.
Todd Bowles mixed up coverages and blitzed at the fifth-highest rate of any defensive coordinator. He does a brilliant job of scheming to the strengths and weaknesses of his personnel.
One factor to keep an eye on here: depth. The Bucs had the second-best injury luck of any defense last year. But overall, they’re set up to once again be one of the league’s top units.
4. Washington Football Team
Last season: 3rd
This group is led by a front that includes
Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat. Washington finished
third in ESPN’s pass rush win rate last year.
They used a first-round pick on talented linebacker
Jamin Davis and replaced Ronald Darby with a superior player in cornerback William Jackson III. At safety,
Landon Collins is back after missing nine games due to an Achilles injury.
Defensive performance doesn’t always carry over year to year, but Washington has veteran coaches in Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera, along with young, talented players. It would be no surprise to seem them again deliver a top-five unit.
Last season: 1st
They still have two of the league’s best defensive players in edge defender T.J. Watt and free safety
Minkah Fitzpatrick. But Pittsburgh lost three players —
Bud Dupree,
Mike Hilton and
Steven Nelson — who each logged at least 400 snaps last season.
Defensive coordinator Keith Butler blitzed at the third-highest rate in 2020, and the Steelers’ front was ferocious, finishing first in pass rush win rate. Watt led the NFL with 15 sacks and 41 QB hits.
Stephon Tuitt was highly disruptive with 11 sacks and 25 QB hits. Cam Heyward (four sacks and 19 QB hits) was still a factor. And the Steelers added veteran
Melvin Ingram in the offseason to pair with
Alex Highsmith.
Cornerback is a concern.
Joe Haden is 32, and though the Steelers were able to bring
Cam Sutton back, they need someone else to step up when they’re in their sub packages. Pittsburgh could regress on the back end, but the overall blend of scheme and talent should still deliver a strong defense.
Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Last season: 9th
The Ravens’ philosophy under defensive coordinator Don Martindale has been consistent: play man coverage and send pressure. Baltimore blitzed at the highest rate (45.5 percent) in the league last year, but the numbers suggest Martindale might not need to be quite so aggressive. Only three teams saw a bigger dip in performance (EPA per play) when comparing plays when they blitzed to the ones when they rushed four or fewer.
The Ravens lost edge defenders Matt Judon and
Yannick Ngakoue in free agency but were patient and eventually landed veteran
Justin Houston. The team also spent a first-round pick on high-upside pass rusher
Odafe Oweh. They’ll count on second-year player
Patrick Queen to make a leap at linebacker after a shaky first season.
Baltimore has one of the league’s best cornerback groups with
Marlon Humphrey,
Marcus Peters and
Tavon Young. Martindale’s defenses have finished in the top 10 for three consecutive seasons, and there’s enough talent for the Ravens to be good once again.
Last season: 12th
There’s reason to believe the Bills can take a step forward from where they were last year. Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have a knack for maximizing the talent available to them. Last year, linebacker
Matt Milano played just 31 percent of the snaps because of injury, and defensive tackle
Star Lotulelei opted out. Both players are back in 2021. Buffalo has spent four first- or second-round picks on defensive linemen in the past three years. Between
Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham, they’ve given themselves options up front. And Buffalo finished second in pass rush win rate last season.
From a scheme perspective, the Bills are going to be zone-heavy and play a lot of Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders) and Cover-4 (a four-deep zone with three underneath defenders). They need to figure out the corner spot opposite
Tre’Davious White but have strong safeties in
Micah Hyde and
Jordan Poyer. Among the 12 Bills defensive players who logged at least 400 snaps last year, 11 are back. Overall, this a well-coached group that has upside if some young players emerge.
8. New Orleans Saints
Last season: 2nd
The Saints had one of the NFL’s top defenses last season, and they’ve finished in the top 10 for four consecutive years under coordinator Dennis Allen. In the post-Drew Brees era, the pressure will be on this group to do even more if New Orleans is going to get back to the playoffs.
New Orleans still has talented players in Cam Jordan,
Demario Davis and
Marshon Lattimore. But they face challenges, having lost six players who logged at least 300 snaps last season. The Saints ranked 22nd in pass rush win rate in 2020. They need
Marcus Davenport or first-round pick
Payton Turner to step up to field a formidable pass rush, especially now that defensive tackle
David Onyemata will be suspended for the first six games.
On the back end, the Saints have a nice mix of hybrid defenders, but they still need to find someone to replace
Janoris Jenkins and play outside corner. The Saints’ depth could be tested more this season. They had the third-healthiest defense a year ago and might not be so lucky in 2021. The most likely scenario is that the defense is good, but not quite as good as it was a year ago.
Last season: 4th
By the end of the 2020 regular season, no defense was playing better than the Rams. But defensive coordinator Brandon Staley moved on to coach the Chargers, and Raheem Morris now replaces him. Luckily for the Rams, they still have
Aaron Donald and
Jalen Ramsey.
The Rams are replacing three players — safety John Johnson, corner
Troy Hill and defensive tackle
Michael Brockers — who logged 600-plus snaps last season. They brought back
Leonard Floyd but don’t have a lot of depth at edge rusher.
Scheme-wise, the Rams were the most zone-heavy team in the league, according to Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. And they mixed in a lot of split-safety looks. Morris’ background suggests more single-high coverages, although he could take an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. The Rams have two superstars in Donald and Ramsey who are among the most impactful defensive players in the league. They also have strong complementary pieces. The defense might not
be quite as good as it was last year, but it should still be an above-average group.
10. San Francisco 49ers
Last season: 6th
The 49ers had the worst injury luck of any defense last year, but Robert Saleh did an incredible job of maximizing the talent at his disposal.
Nick Bosa returns from an ACL injury that limited him to 65 snaps in 2020. Linebacker
Fred Warner is a star. And the 49ers are counting on second-year player
Javon Kinlaw to be a big factor alongside
Arik Armstead.
The secondary is where things get shaky.
Jason Verrett was terrific last year, but he appeared in just six games from 2016 to 2019. San Francisco doesn’t have much depth at corner and could be in trouble if Verrett can’t stay on the field.
Kyle Shanahan has mentioned that new coordinator DeMeco Ryans might be a little bit more aggressive than Saleh was. But overall, Ryans would be wise to hold off on major scheme changes. The 49ers should have a formidable pass rush, but their corners have to prove themselves, and the coordinator change could be a factor.
Last season: 16th
The Seahawks brought back
Carlos Dunlap and signed
Kerry Hyder. They still have
Bobby Wagner at middle linebacker,
Quandre Diggs at one safety spot, and they’ll hope to get
Jamal Adams for the full season (he played 68 percent of the snaps last year).
But cornerback is a huge question mark. The Seahawks lost
Shaquill Griffin and
Quinton Dunbar in free agency. They signed
Ahkello Witherspoon.
Pete Carroll is still going to employ a zone-heavy scheme that leans heavily on Cover-3. Seattle needs multiple corners to step up for this defense to perform better than it did a year ago.
Last season: 10th
They made a splash in the offseason by signing J.J. Watt, but now Chandler Jones is reportedly unhappy with his contract. Given the Cardinals’ shaky cornerback situation, this defense might be in line for a serious step back.
Coordinator Vance Joseph did an outstanding job last year, but he relied on blitzing and man coverage. The Cardinals might not be strong enough at corner to use that same formula again. They signed
Malcolm Butler,
Robert Alford and
Darqueze Dennard with hopes that one or two of them still have something left.
Watt played all 16 games last year but missed 32 games from 2016 to 2019. If Watt stays healthy and Jones remains on the team, the Cardinals, who also have
Markus Golden, should be able to produce an above-average pass rush. But this is a boom-or-bust team and a boom-or-bust defense.