Vegas does not like to lose money. These are their current odds to protect their currency.

SUPER BOWL 56 ODDS
updated 01/14/2022

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL 56 (2/13/22)

Green Bay Packers +380
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Tennessee Titans +750
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
Buffalo Bills +800

Los Angeles Rams +1100
Dallas Cowboys +1200

Arizona Cardinals +1800
Cincinnati Bengals +2000
San Francisco 49ers +2000
New England Patriots +2500

Las Vegas Raiders +5000
Philadelphia Eagles +6500
Pittsburgh Steelers +8000

Rams rule out Taylor Rapp for Monday night, Eric Weddle will play - ProFootballTalk

So if both the Eagles and the Niners lose the Rams would travel to Green Bay next weekend. The weather could be good for this time of year.

No snow or rain is forecast, as its should be sunny but very cold. If the Rams play in GB next weekend they could catch a weather break on Sunday. It's forecasted to snow both Saturday and Monday but be sunny (though very cold) on Sunday. Stafford knows how to play in GB. No snow and with only 6 mph winds it would keep the Ram's passing game viable.

So for those who want the Niners and Eagles to lose, then the weather might do the Rams a favor.

Wild Card Saturday: Raiders at Bengals​

A pair of AFC teams will end their playoff droughts when the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Cincinnati Bengals to kick off the postseason. The Raiders (10-7) are in the playoffs for the first time in five years, when they lost at Houston in the Wild Card Round. The Bengals (10-7) are back in the postseason for the first time since falling 18-16 to Pittsburgh at home in the Wild Card Round back in 2016.

It's been even longer since either team has won a playoff game. The Raiders' last postseason victory came back in 2003 when the team, still in Oakland at the time, beat Tennesee 41-24 in the AFC Championship Game. The Raiders would then lose to Tampa Bay (48-21) in Super Bowl XXXVII. Since then, the team has made just one playoff appearance, the aforementioned loss to the Texans. Cincinnati's last postseason victory came all the way back in 1991 when the Bengals beat the then-Houston Oilers 41-14 in the Wild Card Round. Cincinnati followed that up with a 20-10 loss in the Divisional Round to the then-Los Angeles Raiders and has gone 0-7 in the playoff since, all in the Wild Card Round and four of those losses coming at home.

As for this season, Las Vegas finished strong, winning its final four games in the regular season to earn a wild-card berth. The last victory was a roller coaster, to put it mildly, as the Raiders edged out the Chargers 35-32 in overtime at home in the last game of the regular season. Las Vegas was in control for most of the game, leading 29-14 with 8:23 left, but Los Angeles tied the game with a touchdown on the last play of regulation. In overtime, the Raiders struck first with a field goal, but the Chargers answered setting up the real possibility of a tie, which would have meant both teams would have gotten playoff berths. Instead, Daniel Carlson connected on his fifth field goal of the game, this time from 47 yards out, as the clock expired to secure wild-card berths for Las Vegas and Pittsburgh while Los Angeles saw its season come to an end. Besides Carlson's strong leg, Josh Jacobs ran for a season-high 132 yards, and Derek Carr connected with Hunter Renfrow for a pair of touchdowns in the victory.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati (10-7) had already clinched the AFC North title the week prior, so the Bengals didn't have much to play for last week against Cleveland. With Joe Burrow (rest) and Joe Mixon (on the Reserve/COVID-19 list) both out, the Browns won 21-16 at home, snapping Cincinnati's three-game winning streak. The defense forced two turnovers but also gave up nearly 400 yards to a Cleveland offense that was led by backups at quarterback (Case Keenum) and running back (D'Ernest Johnson). The Bengals' offense managed just 182 yards with Brandon Allen at the helm and other starters, such as wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, playing very little.

These two teams faced each other earlier this season with Cincinnati winning 32-13 out in Las Vegas. Mixon ran for 123 yards and two scores in the victory while the Raiders totaled just 72 yards on the ground, went 1-for-7 on third down, and turned the ball over twice.

AFC Wild Card: Las Vegas (10-7) at Cincinnati (10-7)

Kickoff: Sat., Jan. 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Spread: Bengals -5

Three Things to Watch

1. First-time jitters

It's been five and six years, respectively, since either team has even been in the playoffs, so there are a lot of guys who have not been in this situation before. Carr was with the Raiders during the 2016 season when they last were in the postseason (went 12-3 as the starter), but he got hurt in Week 16 and missed the playoff game. So both he and his counterpart, Burrow, will be making their first postseason start. But the inexperience also extends to the coaches, considering Zac Taylor is in his third season leading the Bengals, while the Raiders' Rich Bisaccia took over as the interim prior to Week 6 after Jon Gruden resigned. Las Vegas is 7-5 under Bisaccia.

So the players and coaches can try and prepare for what is ahead, but actually playing in a postseason contest is completely different. A fast start is important; both teams have a good pass rush and could tee off on the other's quarterback, especially if the running game is ineffective. The current forecasts for around game time on Saturday are calling for temperatures below freezing, but it will feel even colder with winds gusting up to 20 mph. These are certainly not conditions the Raiders are used to, but they did make road trips to both Kansas City and Cleveland in December.

2. Mixon vs. Jacobs

Mixon didn't play in the regular-season finale because he was on the Reserve/COVID-19 list but he still finished third in the NFL with 1,205 rushing yards. He's no longer on the list, back at practice, and will be ready to go on Saturday. On the other side, Jacobs missed a couple of games because of injury and wound up with 872 rushing yards (15th). But Jacobs has picked it up recently with his two 100-yard efforts in the last three games, helping fuel Las Vegas' four-game winning streak. Mixon hasn't gone over 100 yards since Week 12 against Pittsburgh and is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry since that game.

One of Mixon's three 100-yard games came in the win over the Raiders earlier this season, so don't expect Cincinnati to shy away from feeding its workhorse. Las Vegas finished 19th overall against the run, giving up 114.3 yards per game, although the numbers were better on the road. On the other side, the Bengals were fifth in rushing defense (102.5 ypg) and held Jacobs to just 37 yards on nine carries (4.1 ypc) in the first meeting. It's more important for Jacobs to find some success early, as Carr doesn't have as many options to throw to beyond wide receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller compared to Burrow. Jacobs is dealing with some injured ribs, but he played with them last Sunday and put up his best performance of the season, so they shouldn't prevent him from being out there on Saturday.

3. Does momentum matter?

Las Vegas enters on a four-game winning streak and is probably still riding the emotion of last Sunday's overtime win to get into the postseason. The Raiders have to deal with a short week and a potential emotional letdown, but they also could be sharper than Cincinnati, who rested most of its stars last week. Will the time off matter for Burrow, Mixon, and Co.? It remains to be seen, but the margin of error is even smaller once you get to the playoffs, so hopefully the Bengals can get into a rhythm early. Prior to sitting out last week, Burrow has been arguably the hottest quarterback in the entire league, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two games. Chase has been his primary target, but Las Vegas will need to contend with fellow receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as well. The Raiders did a good job against Burrow in the first meeting, as he threw for just 148 yards and a touchdown (to Chase) while sacking him three times, but he's been playing on a different level over the past several weeks. So will the rest benefit Burrow and the Bengals or will the rust come into play?

Final Analysis

I'm modestly concerned that the Raiders expended so much to get here that they won't have as much left on Saturday. It's hard to beat a team twice, or at least that's what the cliché says. I think both squads come out punching early, but I like the Bengals to keep on doing so later into the contest. Burrow has been fantastic lately, and I think he and Chase will connect for at least one long touchdown. It'll be the difference as Cincinnati picks up its first postseason win in 31 years.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Raiders 20

AFC Wildcard Saturday: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills​

The New England Patriots–Buffalo Bills NFL season trilogy concludes on Saturday with an AFC Wild Card matchup. The Patriots, the sixth seed in the conference, visit third-seeded Buffalo in their first playoff game since 1998 that doesn't involve Tom Brady at quarterback.

Related: Expert Picks for Every "Super Wild Card Weekend" Game

Instead, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contender Mac Jones will make his postseason debut, leading an offense filled with young, up-and-coming talent at running back and wide receiver. But it's the Patriots' fourth-ranked defense, stocked with Pro Bowlers, who will look to rediscover the magic that held the Bills to just 10 points in a blustery, run-filled victory at Buffalo one month ago. Jones threw a season-low three passes in that one, including just one in the first half, the first time a team has done so and won in over 40 years.

Since then, the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen have rediscovered their mojo that made them a trendy preseason Super Bowl favorite. In the five games since that Patriots loss, they've scored an average of 29.4 points per game, going 4-1 during that stretch including a 33-21 thrashing of their AFC East rivals in mid-December. Allen was at his best during that road win, throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns in a turnover-free performance.

Can Allen keep the momentum going in the first postseason matchup between these teams in almost 60 years? Much was expected of a Bills group that made it to last year's AFC title game before losing 38-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs. This unit may have finished 11-6 but enters the playoffs with that super-charged offense and a defense that finished even better than the Patriots (ranked No. 1 in the NFL for the first time in franchise history).

Who will retain their Super Bowl dreams after a Saturday night showdown in western New York?

AFC Wild Card: New England (10-7) at Buffalo (11-6)

Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Bills -4

Three Things to Watch

1. Can Mac Jones get back to his winning ways?

One of the NFL's best rookies found a bad time to enter into a first-year slump. Jones stumbled during a 1-3 stretch to finish the season, throwing five of his 13 interceptions in losses to the Colts, Bills and Dolphins. That included a pick-six last week in a game the Pats never led, a performance the quarterback called "super embarrassing" after a dominant victory against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars the week before.

But a look at Jones' season overall leaves him one of the best rookie quarterbacks in recent history. His 67.6 percent completion rate is the second in NFL history behind Dak Prescott. His 22 touchdown passes are a Patriots rookie record as Jones wound up throwing for 3,801 yards.

However, just 19 of them came against the Bills the first time around, a run-centric Bill Belichick game plan the Patriots played out to perfection. When the Bills forced Jones to pass three weeks later, he fell apart, throwing for just 145 yards and two interceptions in a 33-21 Week 16 home loss. The 31.4 quarterback rating he posted that day was the lowest of his career.

How will the rookie bounce back?

"I think we're very familiar with their players and they are very familiar with us," Jones said this week in a generic response reflective of his head coach. "We just have to go out there and trust the coaches and our game plan and just execute it a little better than we have in the past games."

OK, well that’s not too specific, a Patriots mantra. So let’s answer for him; a key for Jones will be top target Jakobi Meyers, nursing a thigh injury but expected to play Saturday night. Meyers has 24 catches in the last four games, including six for 59 yards against the Bills in the last meeting. They need someone to complement the run games the Pats have keyed in on, a 1-2 punch of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson we know will pile up yards.

It just won’t be easy to score against a Bills defense that allowed more than 15 points just twice in the season's last seven games. They allow just a league-leading 17 points per game and only 31 percent of third-down conversions. The Pats know the sting of their scheme all too well, going 3-for-22 on third downs in two games against the Bills thus far.

"They make you earn it in the red zone," said Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. "That's why they're one of the best red zone defenses for a long time, because they don't give up a bunch of easy touchdowns from the high red zone or the fringe. They make you drive the ball, convert first downs, get into the low red zone, and then try to keep you out when you get inside the 5. It's a big challenge."

2. Which Josh Allen will we see on Saturday night? How about the Bills' run game?

On the other side of the ball, Allen and the Bills got themselves together offensively in December. That said, their quarterback took a step back from a phenomenal 2020 that had him in the NFL MVP conversation. His QB rating of 92.2 is 15 points lower than a year ago, along with a 50 percent increase in interceptions (from 10 to 15) and a reduction from 7.9 to 6.9 yards per attempt. Allen's top receiving option, Stefon Diggs, had nearly 300 fewer receiving yards despite the scheduling increase to 17 games.

Just don't tell Belichick that Allen's regressed.

"Josh is one of the best players in the league," he said this week. "Dynamic player. The ball is in his hands a lot. He can do a lot of things with it, make all the throws at all levels of the field, obviously run with the ball, scramble, extend plays, and throw it… it's always a challenge to play against him."

The challenge for the Pats' secondary is stopping the Allen-to-Diggs connection; that more than anything else jumpstarts this offense. They exploded in Week 16, racking up 145 yards and three touchdowns as the Bills' offense found better balance against the Pats. Diggs also riled up the Foxborough crowd, pointing the finger in the stands after one of those TDs while making a fool of safety Devin McCourty.

Was that a breakthrough due to the quarterback or better options for the Bills on the ground? Their 114 rushing yards were actually the fewest in an offensive explosion that saw them rack up 809 over the final five games of the year.

That leaves the pressure on the Patriots' defensive front to handle a multi-pronged attack. No fewer than four defensive starters are nursing injuries heading into the game, from linebacker Dont'a Hightower (knee) to defensive end Lawrence Guy (shoulder). Hightower tied a season high with seven tackles in their Week 13 victory in Buffalo; Phillips, also nursing a knee injury, had two of his nine passes defensed. All of them need to come out swinging on the road for their team to have a chance.

3. How will the weather, missing players and COVID-19 affect Saturday's game?

Even for two teams used to cold weather temps, Saturday night will be especially challenging. The forecast for Saturday in Buffalo calls for a high of 11 degrees; it’ll be under 10 at game time with a wind chill below zero. Those conditions favor running the football, tilting toward the Pats and their successful December matchup.

But the Bills will have a big advantage in the Pats' secondary. Starting cornerback Jalen Mills was added to the Reserve/COVID-19 list this week; he’s the only starter from either team guaranteed to be out due to health and safety protocols. Mills didn't play in the Week 13 win at Buffalo but tied a season high with six tackles in the Week 16 defeat.

That Patriots loss came with several Bills out due to COVID-19. All of them return for the playoffs, from wide receiver Cole Beasley to starting right guard Jon Feliciano. The team feels well prepared for a second chance at a game against the Patriots in adverse conditions.

"I'm not too much of a complainer," said Diggs, "And I played in one of the coldest games in history, like when we played in the playoffs vs. Seattle at the Minnesota [Golden] Gophers stadium. [It was Jan. 10, 2016 when Diggs was still with the Vikings, vs. Seattle in NFC Wild Card Game, which Seahawks won 10-9.] It was like negative something [-6 degrees, wind chill was -25]. So this ain't nothing. I'll be alright."

Final Analysis

Both of these teams, with 30 takeaways during the regular season, know how to force turnovers and take over a game with their defense. Expect another low-scoring affair with temps low enough for fingers to freeze if left uncovered.

Belichick is bound to have another scheme capable of leaving the Bills on their toes. But Allen and the offense, putting themselves together at the right time, should have just enough firepower in a less windy game to get the job done. Looming next could be a second-round matchup with the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium; following a rocky year for both squads, we might get to see another round of their battle for AFC supremacy after all.

Prediction: Bills 17, Patriots 10

AD, Kupp, and Ramsey!

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I guess the easy answer is Rams, Eagles and .....no cant say it.

But is that out best outcome? I really don't think a game in TB is all that bad for us as I like the matchup and to send TB out would be pretty sweet.

If we have to go to GB thats the way it is and I dont think we'll be intimidated, we've been there a lot lately. Most likely we'd have to beat them at some point....

I realize first things first and we need to beat the Cards but what would be your ideal scenario come Monday night at 11:30?

In the 2nd half the 9ers attacked Reeder and the safeties by getting to the edges with tosses and quick passes. They had great success doing this, often being in 2nd or 3rd and short.
The question is does any team other than the 9ers have the type of physical run game to implement a strategy like this. The rams had guys in position to defend these plays but were unable to, repeatedly. The Packers maybe?
Can Jones do a better job or are we in for a steady diet of this?
And what should the counter to this be? This isn’t some genius strategy that we need to go back and watch the film to figure out, the 9ers ran for 150 yds the first time they met.

D.J. Williams is talking about Josh McDaniels here, but we all know where he came from. They were filming the other teams' practices, just like what Belichick was accused of by various members of the Rams.
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Ranking the 14 playoff quarterbacks based on NGS' new Passing Score metric

Published: Jan 13, 2022 at 05:15 PM
The Next Gen Stats Analytics Team

The Next Gen Stats team is proud to introduce our new Passing Score, which evaluates a quarterback's execution on every targeted pass attempt and translates it to a palatable score between 50 to 99.

We joined forces with the AWS Proserve data science group to create this comprehensive metric powered by an ensemble of seven different machine-learning models.

Our goal was to improve upon the lack of context surrounding the division of credit in traditional box-score-derived metrics.

The result is a scalable metric that allows us to compare a passer's performance across any aggregation of attempts -- whether that be at the game-level, the season-level, or in football-specific splits.

The Passing Score reduces a complex model into a simple score that is easy to understand across any split.

This season, 13 of the top 15 quarterbacks by NGS Passing Score made the playoffs, with Justin Herbert (89, 5th) and Matt Ryan (83, 13th) as the odd men out.

In advance of Super Wild Card Weekend, we've used the NGS Passing Score to rank the 14 passers leading their teams into the postseason.

Without further ado, let's break down the profiles of each QB1 who did make the playoffs.

Rank 1
Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers · Year 17
Passing Score: 92
Rank among 31 qualified QBs: 1st
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 99 (1st) | 2019: 88 (13th) | 2018: 85 (19th)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +171.5 (3rd)
EPA/attempt: +0.34 (1st)
Best game: Week 2 vs. Lions (91)

It is no coincidence that Rodgers led the NFL in our new Next Gen Stats Passing Score for the second consecutive season and the Packers are the first team to repeat as the No. 1 seed in the NFC since the 2013-14 Seahawks.

The reigning MVP is likely to become the first player to win the award in back-to-back seasons in more than a decade. While Rodgers did not quite reach the heights of his 2020 campaign (his 99 score in 2020 ranks as the highest single-season score over the last four seasons), his elite passing efficiency positions him well for his second MVP trophy in as many seasons.

The key to Rodgers’ success? Avoiding negative plays. By embracing Matt LaFleur’s quick-passing game (2.63-second average time to throw, 4th-fastest among QBs), Rodgers has been able to avoid pressure (20.1% pressure rate, 3rd-lowest), and make smart, low-risk decisions (2.7% average interception probability, 3rd-lowest).

His 95 passing score on quick passes this season (i.e., when time to throw is less than 2.5 seconds) is the second-highest quick-passing score of any qualified quarterback over the last four seasons.

Key scores by situation:
Quick passes: 95 (1st)
Inside the tackle box: 93 (1st)
Vs. no blitz: 93 (1st)

Rank 2
Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals · Year 2
Passing Score: 91
Rank among 31 qualified QBs: 2nd
Last Season: 2020: 87 (16th)
Total Pass EPA on Attempts: +167.6 (4th)
EPA/Attempt: +0.33 (2nd)
Best Game: Week 16 vs. Ravens (91)

Two words appropriately describe Burrow’s second season in the NFL: consistent and aggressive. Burrow earned the second-highest NGS Passing Score among quarterbacks this season (91) after finishing 14 of his 16 games with a game score of at least 81, tied for the most such games in the NFL this season (with Justin Herbert).

The former No. 1 overall pick is also getting hot at the right time: Three of his best performances of the season (by the NGS Passing Score) came over his last four games.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has certainly benefited the young signal-caller’s development, especially in the vertical passing game. Burrow leads the NFL with 12 TD passes targeting go routes this season (seven of which have gone to Chase), after throwing only one touchdown pass targeting a go route as a rookie.

It is clear Burrow trusts his receivers to win 50-50 balls (or 60-40 in the case of Chase and Tee Higgins) as is evident from his high tight-window throw rate (19.2%, second-highest among QB) and high average interception probability (3.9%, also second-highest).

Key Scores by Situation:
Under pressure: 88 (3rd)
Vertical routes: 99 (T-1st)
Third down: 99 (T-1st)

Rank 3
Matthew Stafford
Los Angeles Rams · Year 13
Passing Score: 91
Rank among 31 qualified QBs: 3rd
Last 3 Seasons: 2020: 89 (13th) | 2019: 93 (5th) | 2018: 81 (27th)
Total Pass EPA on Attempts: +175.4 (2nd)
EPA/Attempt: +0.29 (3rd)
Best Game: Week 13 vs. Jaguars (89)

Stafford has put together one of the best campaigns of his career in his first season under head coach Sean McVay. Stafford’s talent as a passer has allowed McVay to take the training wheels off his offense and evolve.

The results speak for themselves: Stafford led the NFL in total passing EPA on all dropbacks this season (+111.4), and the high-powered offense helped the Rams claim their first division title since 2018 despite defensive regression.

When Stafford has been on his game this season, the Rams have been almost unstoppable. He has recorded a passing score above 87 in eight games, three more than any other QB, and the Rams have won those games by an average margin of two touchdowns.

The flip side to that coin, however, is when Stafford has struggled, so have the Rams. Stafford has had five games this season where he earned a passing score below 80, three more than each of the other quarterbacks in the top 3. The Rams have lost four of those five games, with an average margin of -10 points.

Key Scores by Situation:
Vs. blitz: 99 (T-1st)
In-rhythm: 99 (1st)
Red zone: 95 (1st)

Rank 4
Ryan Tannehill
Tennessee Titans · Year 10
Passing Score: 89
Rank among 31 qualified QBs: 4th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 92 (9th) | 2019: 98 (1st) | 2018: 76 (31st)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +92.2 (14th)
EPA/attempt: +0.19 (12th)
Best game: Week 7 vs. Chiefs (90)

Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans weathered a season full of injuries to key players to earn the AFC’s top overall seed. In fact, the Titans became the first team since the 2017 Eagles to earn a No. 1 seed despite having no player with 1,000 rushing or receiving yards in a season.

Tannehill and his fourth-ranked 89 NGS Passing Score undoubtedly was key to the Titans' ability to survive their injuries. Tannehill turned in his best performance of the season in Tennessee's win over Kansas City in Week 7, which gave the Titans the head-to-head tie-breaker that clinched them a first-round bye this weekend.

While Tannehill ranks inside the top five, the passing score does not factor in sacks, an area where Tannehill has struggled this season. Only Joe Burrow took more sacks than Tannehill this season, as the Titans QB was taken down on 8.1 percent of his dropbacks (sixth-highest rate in the league).

Regardless, Tannehill was an above-average passer in almost every key NGS category. The only split he scored in the bottom 10 of qualifying QBs, deep passing, was likely related to the aforementioned injuries.

Tannehill remained productive this season despite playing behind a porous offensive line that ranked second-worst in Next Gen Stats pressure probability. Both his third-ranked quick-passing score and his 10th-ranked under pressure score demonstrate his elite ability to survive without strong pass blocking. With the return of All-Pro Derrick Henry on the horizon, opposing defenses should be wary of a full-strength Titans offense in the playoffs.

Key scores by situation:
Quick passes: 88 (3rd)
Inside the tackle box: 89 (4th)
Play-action: 91 (7th)

Rank 5
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs · Year 5
Passing Score: 89
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 6th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 94 (6th) | 2019: 91 (10th) | 2018: 96 (1st)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +179.6 (1st)
EPA/attempt: +0.29 (4th)
Best game: Week 14 vs. Raiders (91)

For the fourth straight season since being named the Chiefs' starter, Mahomes will begin the playoffs with a home game. However, because of the team's slow start, he'll be making his first wild-card appearance of his career this weekend.

While still among the elite, Mahomes' performance dipped this season compared with his incredible standards, as it marked the first season he did not receive a 91 or higher passing score. Even in a "down" year, Mahomes scored inside the top 10 in 13 key NGS passing splits.
While he threw a career-high 13 interceptions this season, six were tipped by a Chiefs receiver before being intercepted.

In reality, Mahomes rarely put the ball in harm’s way; his passes averaged a 2.3 percent interception probability this season, the lowest in the NFL. Mahomes was the only QB to throw into tight windows on less than 10 percent of his throws this season (8.7%) and had the highest open throw rate (54%).

Defenses are beginning to defend Mahomes differently than his counterparts, blitzing him on just 12 percent of dropbacks -- the lowest for any QB in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). It's a sound strategy considering Mahomes has a 99 score against the blitz (T-1st in the NFL), compared with an 85 rating against non-blitzes (11th best). His ability to dominate when blitzed is likely the result of his quick-passing prowess, as he holds three of the top five NGS season passing scores on quick passes.

Key scores by situation:
On the run: 92 (1st)
Third down: 99 (T-1st)
Quick passes: 94 (2nd)

Rank 6
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills · Year 4
Passing Score: 88
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 7th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 95 (4th) | 2019: 83 (22nd) | 2018: 75 (32nd)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +107.0 (12th)
EPA/attempt: +0.17 (14th)
Best game: Week 3 vs. Washington (92)

Following his breakout campaign in 2020, Allen led the Bills to their second straight AFC East title this season. Drafted as a raw prospect, the fourth-year pro continues to develop as a passer, seeing his score increase steadily from 2018 to 2020 before taking a slight step back this season. Overall, the former first-rounder has grown into one of the most dangerous passers in the league, scoring in the top five in a whopping 10 different key NGS passing splits.

Allen’s primary strength remains his cannon-like arm, which made him such a tantalizing prospect coming out of Wyoming. Allen demonstrated that arm ability this season, scoring a 99 on intermediate (10-19 air yards), deep (20+ air yards) and vertical route passes this season (all tied for 1st). On the other hand, the concerns over Allen’s unrefined quarterbacking did reveal itself with his 79 score versus the blitz this season.

For the fourth straight season, Allen rushed for more than 400 yards. Key to Allen’s evolution as an NFL quarterback has been the marriage between his mobility and his passing ability. This season, Allen wielded that mobility to great success, scoring within the top three in passing on the run, outside the tackle box and with extended dropbacks.

Key scores by situation:
Intermediate: 99 (T-1st)
Extended passes: 99 (1st)
Vs. no blitz: 91 (3rd)

Rank 7
Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Year 22
Passing Score: 88
Ranking among 31 qualified QB: 8th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 93 (7th) | 2019: 85 (17th) | 2018: 91 (8th)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +148.4 (7th)
EPA/attempt: +0.21 (11th)
Best game: Week 5 vs. Dolphins (92)

At 44 years old, Brady begins his pursuit of his record eighth Super Bowl ring. While Brady will make his 46th playoff start this weekend, the other 11 starting QBs have started a combined 44 playoff games. Leading the league in pass attempts, Brady ranked first in completions, yards (5,316) and touchdowns (43). From an efficiency standpoint, Brady did not have a standout season by his lofty standards. He checks in as the eighth-best passer this season with an 88 NGS passing score -- a slight decline from his 93 passing score last season.

It is important to note that the passing score does not factor in sacks -- possibly the area where Brady shines brightest. Brady took just 22 sacks this season, tied for the second-fewest among qualified quarterbacks, despite leading the NFL in total dropbacks this season (3.0% sack rate). Regardless, his position near the top of the sport as a passer remains intact, ranking in the top 10 in 14 key NGS passing splits in 2021, including six splits inside the top five.

Brady’s mastery of his own offense and opposing defensive tendencies has fueled his Hall of Fame career. So, it is unsurprising Brady finished as the fourth-best passer on third downs, with a 96 passing score. Brady’s investment in his health has also paid dividends, with his right arm yet to show signs of decline. Thus despite his advanced age, Brady clearly fits in the Bruce Arians offensive scheme that runs vertical routes at the highest rate in the league since 2019 (33%). Brady achieved a max passing score (99) targeting vertical routes this season. Adding to the defensive coordinators’ headaches when game planning for the Buccaneers offense this season, Brady also owned the second-best score on passes under 10 air yards.

Key scores by situation:
Inside the tackle box: 88 (5th)
Under 10 air yards: 87 (2nd)
Deep passes: 91 (10th)

Rank 8
Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys · Year 6
Passing Score: 87
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 9th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 83 (DNQ) | 2019: 93 (7th) | 2018: 87 (14th)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +153.8 (6th)
EPA/attempt: +0.26 (7th)
Best game: Week 18 vs. Eagles (97)

Prescott has had the most up-and-down season of any quarterback in the league. At his best, Prescott recorded a passing score above 88 in a league-leading five-games this season. This includes his Week 18 performance against the Eagles, when he earned the highest single-game passing score of any quarterback over the past four seasons (97). If the Cowboys are going to make a deep Super Bowl run, Prescott will have to avoid games like he had during his midseason "slump." Prescott put up a passing score below 77 in five of six games from Weeks 9 through 14. The only other playoff quarterback to have even four such games this season is Ben Roethlisberger (8).

Prescott returns to the playoffs after a two-year absence, including a 2020 season that was cut short by a gruesome ankle injury. Despite that injury, Prescott’s mobility has come back strong. He ranks second across multiple efficiency and production metrics that measure throwing on the run (8+ mph) this season, including Passing Score.

The Cowboys will face a 49ers team in the Super Wild Card Round that has been adept at disrupting the pocket with their front four this season. The 49ers defense generated the fifth-highest pressure rate this season despite blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate. Prescott led the NFL this season with 23 TD passes against the blitz (seven more than any other QB), but he has been more efficient on a throw-by-throw basis when defenses drop 7+ defenders in coverage. Prescott’s league-leading 72.9 completion percentage against non-blitzes helped him have the sixth-highest passing score in these situations (15th vs the blitz).

Key scores by situation:
Vs. no blitz: 88 (6th)
Quick passes: 86 (6th)
On the run: 91 (2nd)

Rank 9
Kyler Murray
Arizona Cardinals · Year 3
Passing Score: 87
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 10th
Last 2 seasons: 2020: 86 (18th) | 2019: 83 (21st)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +121.4 (9th)
EPA/attempt: +0.26 (6th)
Best game: Week 4 vs. Rams (89)

This year has been a tale of two seasons for Murray. An early MVP favorite, Murray started off the season with seven straight games recording at least a 83 passing grade, leading the Cardinals to be the only undefeated team through Week 7. However, Murray suffered an injury in the Cardinals' Week 8 loss to the Packers and was forced to miss three games. Murray hasn’t been able to reach the same level of performance since returning from injury in Week 13, earning a passing grade below 82 in each of his final six games. Part of his struggles can be attributed to the absence of his go-to receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, who has missed the past four games and will not play on Monday night.

With all that being said, there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Murray’s future as the cornerstone of the Cardinals franchise. He has shown improvement in each season as a pro, especially from an accuracy perspective. Murray completed +3.9 percent of his passes over expected this season, trailing only Joe Burrow. His elite mobility has always allowed him to avoid pressure; Murray’s been pressured at a bottom-two rate in each of his three seasons. However, Murray’s turned a corner in his performance under pressure this season, with the 2nd-highest passing score in the league.

Key scores by situation:
Under pressure: 89 (2nd)
In-rhythm: 94 (4th)
Outside the tackle box: 91 (5th)

Rank 10
Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers · Year 8
Passing Score: 87
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 11th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 84 (DNQ) | 2019: 97 (3rd) | 2018: 81 (DNQ)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +117.6 (10th)
EPA/attempt: +0.28 (5th)
Best game: Week 1 vs. Lions (91)

Garoppolo took full advantage of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s scheme this season. Delivering the ball on time to his explosive teammates in space was a key factor in the 49ers earning a playoff berth this season. Garoppolo was the only quarterback to average more than 10 yards per attempt on play-action passes this season (10.5), helping him earn the top play action passing score (97). His high passing score on quick passes (less than 2.5 seconds) was similarly driven by a league-leading 8.3 yards per attempt.

The 49ers were able to create plenty of explosive plays in the passing game without the threat of the deep pass. Garoppolo threw deep on just 6 percent of his attempts this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Instead, he targeted the intermediate area (10-19 air yards) with in-breaking routes, which he led the NFL by a comfortable rate (48 percent, 10 percentage points higher than any other QB). Garoppolo hit his receivers in stride and let them do the work, with the 49ers as a team gaining a league-leading +782 yards after the catch over expected this season. Breakout receiver Deebo Samuel accounted for more than half of that (+403 YAC over expected), leading all receivers.

Key scores by situation:
97 on play action (1st), 88 on quick passes (4th), 97 vs the blitz (4th)
Play-action: 97 (1st)
Quick passes: 88 (4th)
Vs. the blitz: 97 (4th)

Rank 11
Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles · Year 2
Passing Score: 84
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 12th
Last season: 73 in 2020 (did not qualify)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +63.4 (17th)
EPA/attempt: +0.16 (17th)
Best game: Week 15 vs. Washington (90)

Hurts will make his playoff debut this weekend in his promising first season as a starter. The second-year pro had a productive year through the air, finishing in the top five in six different key NGS passing splits en route to the 12th-best Passing Score in the league. Hurts used his mobility to enhance the Eagles' aerial attack, scoring top-five in outside-the-tackle-box passing (99, T-1st) and on-the-run passes (89, 4th).

While Hurts flexed his skill set in many of the on-the-move passing metrics, he showed he still has room to grow when operating within the pocket, scoring near the bottom as a passer inside the tackle box. He only generated a 69 score on quick passes, which ranks 30th in the league. However, when he was in-rhythm and extending plays, his score -- and thus, his ranking -- rocketed up the charts. It's no wonder, then, that Hurts held the ball before passing on average longer than any other qualified QB this season.

Key scores by situation:
Play-action: 92 (5th)
Extended dropbacks: 94 (2nd)
Outside the tackle box: 99 (T-1st)

Rank 12
Derek Carr
Las Vegas Raiders · Year 8
Passing Score: 83
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 14th
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 90 (10th) | 2019: 96 (4th) | 2018: 86 (17th)
Total pass EPA on attempts: +108.0 (11th)
EPA/attempt: +0.18 (13th)
Best game: Week 2 vs. Steelers (88)

In his eighth NFL season, Carr will finally make his playoff debut after missing the Raiders' last playoff game in 2016 due to a season-ending injury he sustained in Week 16. Although he didn't stand out from his counterparts in many areas, he also didn't score in the bottom-five in any of the key NGS passing splits.

Carr’s best attribute this season has been his accuracy, completing more passes than expected at the fifth-highest rate this season. His accuracy shined on downfield passes throughout the season, leading to excellent scores on intermediate (99) and deep (92) passes. That type of consistency surely played a part in the veteran setting the Vegas' single-season passing yards record this year.

The Raiders, who rode a four-game win streak to a postseason berth, needed plenty of late-game magic to stay alive. Unsurprisingly, Carr drove the Raiders' various comebacks this season, adding the third-most win probability on his pass attempts of any qualified QB.

Key scores by situation:
Quick passes: 84 (10th)
In-rhythm: 80 (25th)
Extended dropbacks: 88 (5th)

Rank 13
Mac Jones
New England Patriots · Rookie
Passing Score: 83
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 15th
Total pass EPA on attempts: +79.1 (16th)
EPA/attempt: +0.16 (16th)
Best game: Week 10 vs. Browns (91)

Jones was the only rookie to finish with the season with a top-25 Passing Score, a positive CPOE and a positive passing EPA. Jack-of-all, master-of-none (statistically speaking), Jones did not have a single score that ranked in the top five or bottom five of 20 different passing splits. He enters Saturday's matchup with the Bills as the first rookie QB to start a playoff game since Lamar Jackson in the 2018 Wild Card Round.

Key scores by situation:
Third down: 92 (10th)
Vs. blitz: 86 (13th)
Under 10 air yards: 80 (10th)

Rank 14
Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh Steelers · Year 18
Passing Score: 70
Ranking among 31 qualified QBs: 31st
Last 3 seasons: 2020: 83 (24th) | 2019: 76 (DNQ) | 2018: 85 (21st)
Total Pass EPA on Attempts: +10.0 (26th)
EPA/attempt: +0.02 (28th)
Best game: Week 9 vs. Bears (86)

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Steelers needed three outcomes to go their way to clinch a wild-card spot:

They needed to beat the Ravens.
The Jaguars to upset the Colts.
Chargers-Raiders not to end in a tie.

The odds were not in their favor. Yet, last Sunday we saw Roethlisberger lead the Steelers to his career-high seventh game-winning drive of the season; the Jags blew out the Colts; and the Raiders opted for a game-winning field goal, propelling the 9-7-1 Steelers into the playoffs. Not bad if this truly is Big Ben's final NFL season.

Despite his late-game heroics this year, Roethlisberger was the only postseason quarterback who did not rank among the top 15 by our new metric. Only one other quarterback started at least eight games, led their team to the playoffs and scored below an 82 in the NGS Passing Score: Lamar Jackson, who entered the postseason with a 78 passing score during his rookie season in 2018.

Key scores by situation:
Fourth quarter: 84 (11th)
Vs. blitz: 81 (20th)
Extended dropbacks: 73 (28th)

Curious what you guys think here. Is it possible there are any residual effects lingering after that SF loss? A team we had loss to 5 straight at the time. Wanting to win at home, to clinch the division and break the losing streak. Put ourselves as the #2 seed in the NFC and close out the season playing our best football. Instead we completely choked. Blew a 17 point lead to our division rivals who we can't beat. Could not stop the run in the 2nd half when their physicality took over. Without their all pro LT in fact. Knowing we needed one stop, the defense got picked apart in less than a minute and allowed them to tie the game. Then moments later, they win the toss and immediately drive down again unstoppably and win the game.

The fact that we choked in this manner, the way you lose sometimes has a lingering effect that us actually greater than the loss itself. The way the SF fans completely took over SoFi. The way Ramsey called out our defense scheme after the game proving there is some discension in the locker room.

Success and confidence are contagious and breeds more of the same. But the flip-side is also true. Self doubt and hesitation can creep in and cripple a competitor. I'm seriously wondering how a loss like that wont have an effect on us. It takes incredible mental fortitude to brush a loss like that off and come back to play your best football.

Never thought I'd say this but Steve Young is right. Yes Morris is not good and needs to go but as much as I love Mcvay he also isn't pulling his weight as much as he should. He isn't a player he can't impose his will with a clipboard. He supposed to be a genius see things that others don't mismatches etc. You have got to mix it up then other things will open up. Run yes short passes slants etc. Makes me sad but he seems to be stubborn as a mule and maybe that is a problem that has not been made public but if you constantly do the same shit over and over we all know it's the definition of insanity. What young said about the 3 running plays I echoed the same sentiments that's not playing to win. You were scared to lose.

To me it's not the 3rd and 7 as much as any of those downs you try and get that first don't give me the Stafford toe thing because he kept playing and moving. Lastly for me as a coach you know your defense has been a siv now at that particular moment you want them to win you the game when you full well know your down Fuller and Rapp. I truly believe what I've been saying it's like hot potato between offense and defense no I don't want it you take it etc. The fact Young says we played it like the jaguars is spot on I can't disagree love or hate him he is right.

Still does not excuse the defense at all but if your not working in unison your not going to win. Defense shorthanded you need to win with your offense. Had the defense stayed on tact and Stafford or kupp got hurt then yea your defense has to step up. Team game.

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So much of the 49ers’ comeback win over the Rams, a team which had never blown a halftime lead under Sean McVay prior to Sunday — let alone a 17-3 lead at the half — begs the question: how? How did this happen?

How were the 49ers not just able to come back, but to come back again, even after Jimmy Garoppolo’s late interception and a punt with less than two minutes on the clock?

Legendary quarterback Steve Young joined the “Tolbert, Krueger and Brooks” show on Wednesday, as he does every week, to provide his thoughts on all things 49ers, including the comeback. Young took issue with McVay’s decidedly conservative decision-making to end the game, as well as his second-half approach.

Young first credited an “elegant,” purposeful first half that he deemed as planned out with clear intent.

But in the second half, he took aim at a lot of deep dropbacks, saying the Rams should have gone to more of a quick-game offense with Stafford being pressured consistently.

“The second half, you can see that the 49ers are gaining momentum, and you’re going to take the deep drops to try to get it to Odell Beckham Jr. and then Stafford is trying to climb in the pocket and just disappearing,” Young said. “Like the pocket just disappeared, right? The Rams have a short game. They have a game to get out, get people running, get people moving, get it in people’s hands in space.

“Get OBJ to have the ball in space, have we not figured that out in two months? Can we not get Cooper Kupp – he’s tremendous within five, seven yards. Like, find spaces, get moving. I was like what are you guys doing, dropping deep, getting jammed up?”

But what confounded Young the most was the end of the game, and that was without mentioning the Rams failing to use their final timeout to try and get into field goal range.

Los Angeles got the ball back with 1:50 on the clock, with the 49ers holding all three timeouts. What followed, Young said, blew his mind, given that a first down would have ended the game.

“You can’t tell me there’s not an All-Pro, first-round draft choice quarterback, a couple of great receivers and you’re just going to run right into the line three times, make them call their timeouts and punt? That’s what the Jaguars would do or whoever!” Young said. “Are you not going to go win this? Go win it! You’re the Rams! You’re going to win the division! Go win it! So it says a lot to me that they didn’t go win it. What is that? It baffles me.”

After Tom Tolbert suggested that Stafford was being hit consistently and looked shaky in the second half, Young responded, saying that was an indication that McVay lacked faith in Stafford.

“You just basically said it for us,” Young said. “We don’t trust him. We don’t believe. You’ve got a guy that’s played 12 years, has seen all the worst of the worst in the NFL and he can’t put the golden shoes on and go do it? Oh yeah, let’s protect him. What are you doing? Brutal, brutal.”

Don't get me wrong...I'm pretty happy with Stafford's play...but I think we have to talk about these issues where he really has problems:

1. Pressure up the middle...which reminds me of Goff. Stafford has problems escaping this pressure and it seems he just can't see it coming.

2. In tight games Stafford seems to really have accuracy issues...ESPECIALLY on short passes either throwing high or into the ground. Really noticed in the SF game..just flat tentative throws.

3. INTs!!! Nuff said.

Let's talk about this because I think one thing McVay MUST DO is roll Stafford out of the pocket more this game to give him more time...and also call more quick 6-7 yard passes and keep the Cards D off balance!

The Rams selected 9 players in the 2021 NFL Draft.

8 made the team.

7 of them have spent time on injured reserve this year.

Bad luck, or is this a COVID side-effect?

If you think about it, this year's rookies came off of a truncated college season and entered the NFL during a time of reduced on-site, in person training due to the pandemic. Is this a cause (reduced opportunities for organized conditioning) and effect (higher rater of injury) scenario?

I'd be curious to see if the league's rookie class had a similarly high incidence of injury this season. Perhaps there is a pattern, or perhaps the Rams were just snakebit this year.

It sure would be nice, though, to get Ernest Jones and Robert Rochell back.

Morning fellas! This was a hot topic on a local morning show and it got me thinking about my 'tipping policy'. The specific scenario I'm looking to discuss is tipping for food service - fast food, sit down restaurant, food delivery. How much do you tip?

My view on things: I will tip based on the service I received. I don't follow the 'minimum rule' of 10-15%, I tip according to the level of service I received but my tip will never be 0. If my bill was $5 or $50 and my service was excellent, I won't hesitate to drop a $20-30 tip. If my service sucked, I'd leave maybe $2 on the $5 bill or $5 on the $50 bill. I'll leave a few bucks when I pick up my food to-go and I almost never tip when I'm picking up fast food. I also tend to tip more at local restaurants.

Also, I don't feel like it's my responsibility as a customer and consumer to tip enough for the server to make a livable wage - that's the employer's responsibility. These restaurants who pay their service workers $2-3 an hour and justify doing so by saying 'they'll make it up in tips' is a crock of shit and only benefits the restaurant. In no way does it benefit the employee and in no way does it benefit the customer or consumer. And by all accounts it seems like this practice is a US thing and is very uncommon in other countries.

So folks, what are you thoughts on tipping and how much do you tip?

To get us warmed up for Rams playoff football I am going to post some playoff games from the past.

Giants vs Rams 1989 full game.

Here is a good one to start with:

Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rttr5-1CUpA

Sorry to start this early.

I have been trying to get my wife to let me try this recipe I found for a long time.

She randomly texted me yesterday and said 'we should have that one meal you always want to try for the Rams game'

Halifax Donair. I don't know if anyone has ever had one but I think they look really good. I was shocked she wanted to try as she has been so staunchly against even the idea.

Here is the video I plan to mostly try and follow.

Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXXUqe9JiY8&ab_channel=MATTYMATHESON

NFL talking head: Ben Maller

LA Rams Are The Most Talented Playoff Team and the Most Unpredictable.

The Rams might get beaten by the Cardinals or they could end up in the NFC Championship game.

The most difficult NFL playoff team to get a read on.



Login to view embedded media View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZpS7em80Qs

RIP

Login to view embedded media View: https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1481392072334708742?t=j2aHNqkJbQKYUhYh-gS8LQ&s=19

The new reality of the NFL and their extended seasons is going to include additional injuries and because of that reality rosters need to be expanded and thought given to how teams manage that roster through the season.

Do we see second level players in September getting a look to find the depth needed for the long run?

First teamers not playing until late October or November with the idea of ramping up for the second half and playoffs?

The season with playoffs was already pushing the limits. No practices in pads, no hitting in preseason, shitty tackling all year, hamstring injuries sidelining players for months.

Where does this end up??

Just saw Eric Weddle is unretiring to play for us in playoffs.

So ridiculous.

Blaine Grisak of DTR posed this question on twitter and I think it's an interesting one. Which pair of former Rams receivers would you pick to be on a mythical Rams team with 1999 Kurt Warner at QB? Pick a Pair from:

Isaac Bruce
Torry Holt
Henry Ellard
Flipper Anderson
Cooper Kupp
Robert Woods
Az Hakim
Ricky Prohl
Jack Snow
Crazy Legs Hirsch
OBJ
Billy Waddy

I was going to make this a poll, but there would be too many combination choices, so hit me with your best shot! I got Rev Ike and Cooper Kupp!

For all the talk about Matthew Stafford, I think that the Rams chances to make the Super Bowl could turn on the success of the new tandem of Sony Michel and Cam Akers.

Look at the Rams most likely NFC opponents:

Arizona: allows 4.6 ypc (4.7 over last 3 games)
Tampa Bay: allows 4.5 ypc (4.9 over the last 3 games)
Green Bay: allows 4.7ypc (5.6 over the last 3 games)

McVay has shown that he wants to run the ball early, set up the play action throws, and use the running game as the "closer" in the second half. If that strategy works, Stafford will be deadly.

It didn't work against SF, but the Cardinals, Bucs and Packers are more susceptible to the run.

So, if we're going to make a run, Sony and Cam will be the engine.

Long time lurker here.

Let me preface this with my overall support of McVay, and what he has done to get this organization turned around....BUT:

On the infamous 3rd and very short shotgun-empty set, that seemed to turn the game around, has been happening all season long. I've noticed that McVay goes to this set in (or near) the red zone, in many cases on 2nd/3rd and short. Overall, McVay is a brilliant offensive mind, but he definitely makes some careless play calls, that in some cases seem like only he would make on the planet earth.

Also, not a major issue, but is anyone else bothered by McVay running down to the end zone and hopping around with the players to celebrate TDs? I just think this a bad look and just looks plain goofy. I have no problem with him showing some emotion, but it seems like a HC should act like they've been there to a certain extent.