Super Bowl LVII Prediction: Chiefs and Eagles Meet in Showdown of Top Seeds, MVP Finalists
Super Bowl LVII is a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles that I'm sure Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie never envisioned over a decade ago.
It's just over 10 years since Andy Reid was fired as Eagles head coach despite leading them to more wins than anyone in franchise history. He fell short there in his one Super Bowl appearance, losing to the Patriots 24-21 in Super Bowl XXXIX, and could only watch as his former team defeated New England 41-33 in Super Bowl LII, five years after he left, for the Eagles' first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy in 2018.
Since then, it's been Reid who's risen to the top. Developing and discovering quarterback Patrick Mahomes finally got him over the hump, leading to a Super Bowl LIV victory in 2020 over San Francisco. The Chiefs are now in their third Super Bowl in the last four seasons, positioning themselves as the potential team to beat over the next decade. Mahomes just captured his second MVP award, setting the single-season yardage record with 5,614 total (5,250 of that passing) and he literally willed the team to victory in the AFC Championship Game over the Cincinnati Bengals on one leg after suffering a high ankle sprain.
Standing in the Chiefs' way now? Reid's former franchise, still in love with their former head coach but ready to do anything possible in order to beat him this Sunday.
"I had 14 great years there, I loved every minute of it," Reid said at his media availability Tuesday. "It's a great organization. I still am close with the people there. It was great to see the kids that we had drafted that are now these veteran players, All-Pro players on that team. I had a chance to give them a hug last night and now we go our separate ways and get ready to play."
Among them? Center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, anchors of the offense and defense for this Eagles group. Both have been through three head coaches since then — Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson, and Nick Sirianni — but the imprint of Reid's presence still remains.
"We have a great locker room," Kelce said last week. "We have a lot of guys who care for one another, and I was brought into that as a young player. I think that the organization has done a phenomenal job of continuing that through all three changes."
Current Eagles head coach Sirianni was part of a change himself when the Chiefs hired Reid in 2013. He wasn't retained as wide receivers coach, leading him on a path through the Chargers and Colts before getting hired to replace Pederson in 2021.
"Do you always have this little chip on your shoulder? Sure, you do," Sirianni said despite praising Reid for the way that situation was handled. "You're always like… but that's who I am as a coach, as a person. I want to make sure that I'm working my butt off to be as good as I possibly can."
Sirianni's effort paid off this season with an offense capable of going punch-for-punch with the Chiefs. Jalen Hurts, second to Mahomes in MVP voting, became just the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for more than 3,700 yards and rush for 750 more. The dual deep threat of wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 2,692 yards and 18 touchdowns. The rushing attack, led by Miles Sanders, has averaged 208 yards per game during the postseason.
Will that be enough for them to overcome the sheer will of Mahomes and All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, competing in a Super Bowl with his brother Jason across the sidelines? Or will the Eagles find a way through, combining an offense and defense whose 78 sacks through the postseason are the third most in franchise history?
Either way, out in Glendale, Arizona, this Super Bowl feels like a true family affair, filled with more connections than any other. Regardless of outcome, Lurie has shined the spotlight on the impact he's made during his nearly 30 years as an NFL owner.
Super Bowl LVII: Kansas City (16-3) vs. Philadelphia (16-3)
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 12 at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
TV: FOX
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Eagles -1.5
Tickets: As low as $4,525 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Can the Philadelphia defense get to Mahomes?
Patrick Mahomes has been well-protected this postseason, even during an AFC Championship Game where he was hobbling around (three sacks in total). But the Eagles' defense presents a different type of challenge, quarterback pressure the hallmark of defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon's schemes.
Keep in mind the Eagles were second to last in sacks just one year ago.
"A lot of guys were new, fresh," defensive end Brandon Graham said this week. "We didn't have as much talent as we have this year. We were spending a lot of time trying to figure out how we want certain things and knowing exactly what it is that [Gannon] wants.
"Now, we can just focus on the technique of it… it's more about attacking."
That attack bore fruit with eight sacks in the first two postseason games, plus Haason Reddick's forced fumble on the 49ers' Brock Purdy that knocked him out of the NFC Championship Game. Reddick made the first Pro Bowl of his career this season and has been the lynchpin of the front lines, opening up opportunities for Cox, Graham, and others by forcing teams to focus overwhelming attention on him.
But Sunday offers the toughest challenge yet for this defense: going against the Most Valuable Player under center.
"Our focus is second effort and just trying to get him down, just try to beat him," defensive lineman Javon Hargrave said this week. "It's going to take all of us. Sometimes the front four can win, but he can also get out of the pocket to make plays.
"You gotta keep rushing. You can't get too frustrated and you don't put your head down when he makes plays. That's why he's an MVP."
2. Taking care of the football
For the Eagles during a dream 14-3 regular season, no metric showcased their strength better than turnover margin. Their plus-eight differential ranked third in the league, and they don't have a single giveaway during a postseason in which they've outscored their two opponents 69-14.
Nine of the Eagles' 19 giveaways, though, came during their three losses. There were just two other games where they had more than one turnover: during a Bears game in December in which Hurts injured his shoulder and against the Colts, a team they needed a late rally to squeak by 17-16.
Their other 11 regular-season games produced just five turnovers. The team is 11-1 when producing a single turnover or less (and that one loss? It came with Gardner Minshew at QB). Takeaways were also not the Chiefs' specialty on defense this season; they had just 20, tied for 20th in the NFL with an overall margin of minus-three.
The Chiefs have improved some during the postseason, crucial interceptions of top-tier quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow) changing the narrative in both games. Can they keep that going against what's been an airtight Eagles offense, arguably the best offensive line in football that is well-positioned to combat their pass rush (whose 55 sacks ranked second in the NFL to only the Eagles)?
3. Who will be Travis Kelce's DeVonta Smith?
There's no question that both A.J. Brown for the Eagles and Kelce will have outstanding nights in a game where each side should have highlight-level offensive plays. Both teams had 13 plays of 40-plus yards over the course of the regular season, a total that ranked second to only the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins accomplished that by picking up Tyreek Hill, Mahomes' favorite target besides Kelce prior to his departure. Where the Chiefs' offense has struggled in 2022 is to find a consistent playmaker to fill those shoes. Luckily, during both of their postseason matchups, someone has stepped up to fill the void: running back Isiah Pacheco had 95 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Jaguars before wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling had seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.
But that was just the second 100-yard game Valdes-Scantling had all season long, posting just 42 catches for 687 yards during the regular season. Kelce wound up as the lone Chief to pile up more than 1,000 receiving yards, the first time that's happened since 2019.
X-Factor: The Mahomes Ankle
Mahomes has had an additional two weeks to recover from a high ankle sprain. It certainly didn't stop him in that scamper for a first down in the AFC Championship Game that will go down as one of his greatest plays.
But high ankle sprains can take 6-8 weeks to fully recover from. The Eagles D was already built around quarterback pressure, forcing movement; it's a whole different type of challenge compared to the Bengals' personnel.
The MVP will have his work cut out for him, and no amount of mental fortitude can overcome the physical limitations an injury has on the human body. As we saw with Purdy, all it can take is one bad play to leave him virtually immobile in the pocket, handing the Eagles a major advantage.
We know Hurts, over a month removed from his shoulder injury, is near 100 percent. The fact Mahomes is not should be enough to at least give bettors pause.
Final Analysis
Notice we haven't talked about the Eagles' offense until now. That's because it's assumed they'll get their points against a Chiefs defense that ranked 11th in the NFL in total yards (and 18th against the pass) in the regular season. Sanders, Brown, Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert, backup running back turned rocket ship this postseason Kenneth Gainwell… it's too many weapons and too much to hold down for 60 minutes.
The big question is whether the Chiefs' offense can keep up, along with Mahomes' health. If the Chiefs come out swinging, putting points on the board and running their offense smoothly? It's going to be a slugfest the whole way through. But keep in mind the pressure appears to be on them, a burgeoning Chiefs dynasty that's simply expected to be in this game.
It's also rare that a coach with Reid's pedigree knows their opponent so intimately. Will those two factors be an advantage or a detriment come game time? We know Sirianni plays it fast and loose, and he's kept that attitude around the Eagles locker room the past two weeks. How successful his aggression is, say, on going for it on fourth down, and how Reid fights back may determine the ultimate outcome.
Super Bowl LVII Predictions from Athlon's Editors, Writers and Contributors
| Editor/Writer/Contributor | Prediction | MVP |
|---|
| Steven Lassan | Chiefs 31-27 | Patrick Mahomes |
| Mark Ross | Eagles 30-27 | Miles Sanders |
| Ben Weinrib | Chiefs 28-27 | Patrick Mahomes |
| Alek Arend | Eagles 27-21 | DeVonta Smith |
| Cameron Flynn | Eagles 31-27 | Jalen Hurts |
| Mitchell Forde | Chiefs 31-27 | Patrick Mahomes |
| Tom Bowles | Eagles 31-27 | Jalen Hurts |
| Bryan Fischer | Chiefs 30-27 | Patrick Mahomes |
| Matt Josephs | Eagles 31-20 | DeVonta Smith |
| Sarah Lewis | Chiefs 38-35 | Patrick Mahomes |
| Jake Rose | Chiefs 28-26 | Patrick Mahomes |
| J.P. Scott | Chiefs 34-24 | Isiah Pacheco |
| Mark Strausberg | Eagles 27-24 | Jalen Hurts |
| Aaron Tallent | Chiefs 38-34 | Patrick Mahomes |
| Scott Whittum | Eagles 30-24 | Jalen Hurts |
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