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RBs Heading for Disappointment With NFL Free Agency Contracts
This offseason, several high-profile running backs should temper their expectations as they look to cash in on a lucrative NFL contract. Despite the Pro Bowl and All-Pro talent in the 2023 free-agent class of tailbacks, the group isn't likely to feature any players who reset the market with megadeals. Moreover, the top names may have to settle for the franchise tag.
On one hand, the top eight earners among running backs in annual salary signed extensions with the teams that drafted them.
Yet the top three rushers from the 2022 season played for clubs that missed the playoffs. On top of that, Pro Football Focus' Marcus Mosher shared an interesting observation, highlighting that the leading rusher for the previous 14 Super Bowl-winning teams had a base salary of $2.5 million or less.
In Super Bowl 57, Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco led all players in rushing with 76 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. As a rookie seventh-round pick, he led the team in rushing for the 2022 campaign (170 carries for 830 yards and five touchdowns), surpassing 2020 first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire (before he suffered an ankle injury) on the depth chart.
Between the modest investments in the top ball-carriers on the biggest NFL stage and the Chiefs' late-draft gem at running back, teams may second-guess the decision to sign players at the position to massive extensions.
Let's take a deep dive into the team situations of the top impending free-agent running backs (coming off rookie contracts) to understand why the open market may not be so kind to them.
Saquon Barkley
In 2022, the New York Giants relied heavily on Saquon Barkley to carry the offense for much of the season. He logged a career-high 295 carries and tied the number of total touches from his rookie campaign (352). The two-time Pro Bowler rushed for 110-plus yards in four games through Week 10.
Though Barkley finished with his second-most scrimmage yards in a single season (1,650) and received the third-most Comeback of Player of the Year votes, he's not going to land a massive deal this offseason.
For one, Barkley comes with some buyer beware because of his injury history. He played all but one game (because of rest in Week 18 this past season) in the 2018 and 2022 campaigns, but the five-year running back missed 21 contests between 2019 and 2021.
Secondly, Barkley may have to settle for a little less if the Giants plan to retain Daniel Jones, who, according to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, wants $45 million per year. Of course, Big Blue can use the $32.9 million franchise tag on Jones, but in the near future, the front office may have to pay him $40-plus million if it wants to keep the signal-caller on a multiyear deal.
Per Fox Sports' Ralph Vacchiano, the Giants offered Barkley a contract worth $12 million annually during their Week 9 bye, which didn't satisfy his demands. The NFC East reporter also heard that the running back wants a deal "near Christian [McCaffrey's] $16M average."
Wherever Barkley signs in free agency, he's unlikely to ink a deal for that top-of-the-market salary, but he may get around $14 million per year from Big Blue, which is a number that ESPN's Jordan Raanan reported through his sources.
Projected contract: Four years, $56 million ($33 million guaranteed)
Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs, the 2022 rushing champion, probably won't reset the running back market this offseason, which should be a disappointment for him. Typically, top-shelf players who put together their best season right before they hit free agency earn megadeals, but Jacobs may have to settle for significantly less, and he's come to grips with that reality.
During the week of the Super Bowl, Jacobs told Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio and Chris Simms that he would play on the $10.1 million franchise tag if the Las Vegas Raiders load up on talent around him.
However, Jacobs provided one caveat.
"If you want me to come back as the hero, you better pay me like a hero," he said.
In 2022, Jacobs carried a heavy load as one of the league's few workhorse running backs, racking up 1,653 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Not only did he lead the league in rushing, but he finished with the most scrimmage yards (2,053).
Based on Jacobs' comments, he's not going to accept the franchise tag if the team gives him nearly 400 touches in back-to-back seasons. With that workload, Jacobs would be grossly underpaid at a shade over $10 million.
Nonetheless, the Raiders have several holes to fill at guard, right tackle (if Jermaine Eluemunor hits the open market), and all across a defense that ranked 26th in scoring last season.
On top of that, if Vegas wants to bring in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who's yet to decide what he wants for his future, the club would have earmark cap space for his sizeable contract.
If the Raiders make a run at quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency, they may have to set aside $34.9 million, which is his projected market value, per Spotrac.
As the Raiders sort out their pressing roster needs, Jacobs may have to play out the year with the franchise tag or accept a deal that's worth less than $15 million annually, which is slightly below the top three earners at running back.
Projected contract: One year, $10.1 million (franchise tag)
David Montgomery
The Chicago Bears had a three-man ground attack with quarterback Justin Fields leading the team in rushing (1,143 yards and eight touchdowns) while David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert split touches out of the backfield.
Montgomery (801 yards) and Herbert (731) finished with similar rushing numbers, but the latter averaged 5.7 yards per carry compared to four yards per rush attempt for the former.
Don't expect the Bears to go above and beyond to re-sign Montgomery with Herbert on the books for less than $1 million in 2023. Within a quality free-agent running back class, he's not going to garner an eight-figure annual salary.
According to The Athletic's Adam Jahns, Montgomery's ideal situation is a team-player-friendly deal, which suggests that the 25-year-old may not fully maximize his earning potential on the open market.
In a weaker free-agent class, Montgomery may have been able to push for $8-9 million per year, but his contract will fall below that mark with this year's group.
Projected contract: Three years, $20 million (12.1 million guaranteed)
Tony Pollard
In 2022, Tony Pollard posted career highs in multiple categories, rushing for 1,007 yards, recording 371 receiving yards and racking up 1,378 scrimmage yards with 12 total touchdowns. Unfortunately for him, he fractured his left fibula and suffered a high ankle sprain in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs.
Per ESPN's Todd Archer, Pollard underwent surgery and "should be full strength well before training camp."
Even if Pollard makes a full recovery before the summer, teams may be hesitant to pay him the big bucks in March. No one has any idea how the running back's road to recovery will pan out.
With that said, The Athletic's Bob Sturm expects the Dallas Cowboys to franchise-tag Pollard, which seems like a practical move to keep their running back tandem together without handcuffing themselves to a long-term commitment.
By the way, Sturm believes running back Ezekiel Elliott could remain in Dallas on a reduced salary.
"I believe he has one option for employment above the league minimum and it is right here in Dallas," Strum wrote about Elliott. "I could be wrong, but if I am, it is a very low number. Maybe one year for $2 million or $2.5 million which is a far cry from what he is used to."
Owner Jerry Jones and front-office executive Stephen Jones told reporters that they want Elliott back for next season, but the latter said it "has to work financially" for both sides.
If the Cowboys rework Elliott's deal, Pollard may be able to get a multiyear contract and avoid the franchise tag, but the club may be hesitant about offering an extension because of his leg injury.
Projected contract: One year, $10.1 million (franchise tag)
Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders had a bounce-back 2022 season. After a scoreless 2021 campaign, he racked up career highs in scrimmage yards (1,347) and touchdowns (11). He led the Philadelphia Eagles' fifth-ranked rushing attack at an opportune time, but his production may not help him land a top-five deal (in annual salary) among running backs.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a key part of the Eagles' ground attack, rushing for 1,544 yards and 23 touchdowns over the past two seasons, which has clearly worked to the team's benefit.
Executive vice president and general manager Howie Roseman said he want to sign Hurts to an extension in the offseason, which will likely result in the loss of a few notable impending free agents.
The Athletic's Bo Wulf ranked the Eagles' 2023 free agents by priority, and he listed Sanders at No. 7 with the expectation that this class of running backs "will work against him" on the open market.
NBC Sports' Peter King isn't in favor of signing Sanders to a big contract because "backs are easy enough to replace."
In an Instagram post, Sanders expressed his desire to continue his NFL career in Philadelphia. If he's truly committed to a return, the Pro Bowl running back may have to accept a $7 million deal (tied for 10th in annual pay among running backs) as the front office looks to save in areas while inking Hurts to a massive extension. Perhaps running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Trey Sermon see an uptick in touches next season.
Projected contract: Three years, $21 million (13 million guaranteed)
Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary started in 56 out of 61 games through four seasons, racking up at least 956 scrimmage yards in each campaign. Despite his consistency, while averaging 4.7 yards per carry, the Buffalo Bills seemed prepared to move on from him.
Last year, Buffalo selected running back James Cook in the second round of the 2022 draft, and he had big-play flashes with 687 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. Remember, the Bills acquired Nyheim Hines before the 2022 trade deadline, and they could feature him a lot more in the short passing game next season.
The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes Singletary's shortcomings have diminished his value in Buffalo, which explains the team's backfield committee approach.
"He would occasionally bust out a 10-to-25-yard run, which helped keep him firmly ahead of James Cook in 2022. But Singletary also showed why they continuously tried supplanting him with other running backs over the last three offseasons. He struggles in short-yardage opportunities, he lacks explosiveness to maximize runs, and that lack of explosiveness limited him to just a check-down option in the passing game."
The Bills may make an attempt to add star power to the running back room with an eye on Texas product Bijan Robinson in this year's draft. Regardless, Singletary looks like an expendable player for a team that's currently $16.6 million over the cap threshold.
Teams won't toss a ton of money at an ordinary running back with glaring limitations either. Coming off his most productive year, Singletary should expect a deal in the $3-4 million range.
Projected contract: Two years, $7.5 million (3.7 million guaranteed)
