Wanted to discuss the relative position strengths in the draft and FA vs our needs. In the draft of course one guy sliding is all it takes to dictate what you need to do, particularly when you draft 23 overall. And the Rams should of course jump on that option if it happens, as BPA is best for the long-term benefit of the team.
All that aside, I do think we can see the depth of certain positions in this draft right now, as well as FA, and I also think we have a pretty good handle on needs even if some of the cut options aren't completely clear. So let's kick it off with establishing needs and take a look at them vs the FA and draft options for filling them.
Team Need Priority:
1. CB. Have to start with CB due to the fact that even with bringing back NRC and Joyner in the secondary we go into the draft most likely with a hole at one primary position at a minimum. I consider Trumaine to be gone, only question for me is whether they lock up NRC as expected. But even with him returning, Web is iffy at best with injuries this past season and inability to play the ball, dude is a stop-gap player IMO.
Free Agency does have one option for upgrade in Malcolm Butler. He will be the top name in FA, though, so he's a high dollar signing to get him in here. I think he's unlikely for that reason. Also there are rumors that Talib will be cut, if so I do think the Wade connection provides for them bringing him in potentially, but that's very much up in the air.
Now for the remainder of the FA class there are guys the Rams might bring in to soften need preparing for the draft, guys like Melvin (Colts), or Breeland (Skins) who I've seen bounced about by Rams fans on different boards. But I don't think these types really affect their plans in the draft.,
Draft is where the options are countless for the Rams to address CB. It's a deep class, with plenty of fits for the defense from our first pick into midrounds. My guess is that the Rams enter the draft planning on using one pick from their round 1/3/4 picks on the CB position.
2. ILB. Our problems here are twofold. First, Tree is playing in the wrong spot due to being paired with another weakside/chase/coverage type in Barron. Second, Barron had trouble holding up on the inside, he had trouble getting off blocks (he basically could not get off them period), and I suspect he had gap/fit probs too in the scheme. Tree just got paid and is our QB of the defense, he's going to stick around and slide over to the weak side where he's best suited. Barron will be cut or traded, and that elevates this need very high. What I don't know: what they think of Littleton, i.e. is he at least a short term answer in there that allows Tree to move over.
FA class for ILB has some stop-gap types that can help us. There is an upgrade available, but I doubt the Jets let him hit FA and with money in Tree I doubt they allocate more for the position. Might see them add a stop-gap guy but it will not affect the draft plans IMO, where they'll probably pounce on an ILB they like.
Draft class for ILB is superb. There is a reasonable chance the Rams are looking at a very nice solution at 23 who has top value for the group on the board, but as the draft goes on there are more guys there too that could help. I think this position has a very high likelihood of being drafted or heavily addressed with a pack of UDFA types brought in on top of a stop-gap type.
3. OLB. Defense struggled in the contain and pressures off the edge all season. Our starting ROLB and primary rusher notched a respectable sack total, but also struggled quite a bit and carries a high cap hit. Our starting LOLB is a FA and struggled on the contain as well. While both got better as the season went on, it's pretty clear we need to get younger, faster, and better on the edge to be an elite defense. Only reason this is listed as our third greatest need is the fact that they might keep Quinn and it's possible Barwin signs an affordable deal given his affinity for playing for Wade.
This position is interesting because there's a chance both our starting OLB are gone this offseason. If that happens this likely becomes the #1 need.
I am not a fan of the FA options for OLB and in general don't believe signing your pass rusher on the open market is the best way to go.
OLB in the draft is well represented. I think the position will have value at every stop in this draft, from 23 on. Very high chance the Rams address OLB in this draft.
4. NT/DL. Wade doesn't run a typical run stuffing nose position in his under scheme, but then again he also tends to adjust his scheme to fit players. Whatever else happens this offseason, it's clear the Rams need to upgrade NT. And their depth behind 3T and 5T will probably be looked at too.
Free agency help at NT is available, but of course what's messed up is that the Rams have a $#!T ton of cash tied up in their 3T & 5T positions and maybe $12M or more to come when Donald is signed. Are they willing to put more into the position to address the nose? I'd like to say this is unlikely, but the depth of options keeps me from doing that. I do think it's possible they bring in a NT in the FA period, due to a ton of options.
NT in the draft, like the rest of our defensive needs, is well represented, from round 1 on. While I think Vea goes top ten, chances are the Rams can get value there at 23 or their later picks no problems.
5. TE. Many here don't share my opinion on this being a need, but it's a big one. We have a TE with two years under his belt who has improved in run blocking but who has untrustworthy hands in Higbee. And another who we all expect to make a jump and add some RAC to the offense. Also have another big athlete type in Hemingway. But who can you trust? IMO Sean is not done with this position, it's a need.
Free agency offers good options that can help us, as well as some options for stop-gap types to take the edge off. IMO the Rams will chase some of them the moment FA opens, to include some of the top options.
The draft does of course have guys who can help the Rams, but I think the time required to develop, along with relative value of defensive needs, lessen the chances they draft a TE until maybe the later rounds. I mean I have to admit I imagine Andrews lining up as a WR in some 12 personnel looks, giving Goff a nice target he can trust, but generally with TEs things don't turn out the way you want in the rookie season. And I positively love Schultz too, just seems like a luxury in this particular draft.
6. OT/OG. Listing this as OT/OG because I think the Rams are going to prioritize a project type OT who can start off on the inside as a depth option. This gives them potentially some flexibility with 2019 (when Saffold/Brown/Havenstein all hit FA), but also improves depth now.
FA offers only interior options in Norwell & Pugh (who are gonna get paid) as legit upgrades, but obviously that is unlikely. Would the Rams consider either to be a shrewd signing now vice locking up Brown or trying to keep Saff in 2019? Doubtful, but I suppose it's possible. More likely is they bring in a depth signing if anything on the OL and I don't see them looking OT on the market.
Draft has options but when would they pull the trigger? Well the answer is anywhere that someone they love is there. We have to assume they are concerned with Big Whit's age so even there at 23 is an option. They could also move up if the concern is great enough.
Summary:
Now this is where you start to look at the biggest needs and compare them against a lineup of draft picks that look incapable of meeting all their needs. The Rams have 6 needs to my eye, with 3 picks in rounds 1-4 where I like their chances best at finding starters. So how are the Rams going to solve this problem? Two ways IMO.
First, I think there's a good chance they trade down from their spot at 23 and add a 3rd round pick. Snead is well connected, a willing trader, and the value of guys in round 2 at the Rams' positions of need line up. They can trade down, and still get OLB, ILB, CB, NT, etc.
This would net them 4 picks in the first four rounds with reasonable expectation to fill needs and get value.
Second, I think they fill a couple needs in FA. But which positions? Probably TE and ILB. I think TE ends up being their "splurge on an upgrade" position, and ILB ends up being their stop-gap signing position, with whomever it is competing with Littleton and a robust class of UDFAs that Snead brings in.
It's possible they also splurge on OG. That would relegate Brown to depth and/or another competition with Havenstein on the edge, and eliminate one concern for 2019 FA.
Either way, my best guess leaves OLB, CB, NT, and OT as the positions they address in the first four rounds, after a trade down.
