The end of the gasoline powered car?

[CGI_Ram]

If you’ve got the time to watch this; it is fascinating.

Fact; the world will look a lot different, very soon. Almost unsettling to think how this will impact the auto industry and industry that supports it.

 

[-X-]

But it's an hour lonnngggggg....

 

[Riverumbbq]

Guess that gas station that just went up for sale won't be looking at me as an investor.

Thanks @CGI_Ram, great video. Certainly makes the future look a little brighter when it comes to energy & transportation.

 

[Angry Ram]

I'm doing other things right now, but watched the first 10 minutes of it. I'll watch the rest sometime this weekend.

I know electric cars sound great, but there's a lot of other factors, and maybe he mentions them later on.

- How much strain are these cars going to be on the electrical grid? Where will the electricity come from, coal plants? Wind turbines? That's another can of worms.

-Lithium Ion batteries? 12 megafactories? That's a helluva lot of mining.

-The government and big oil bureaucracy will do whatever they can to keep the oil flowing. I'm in the O&G industry as a consultant and from what I can see, the business is still strong. There are many exploration projects going on currently.

-At the beginning when he mentions other technologies and how the electrical car will follow suit. But the thing is, all those prior inventions were new ideas that made lives easier. Car was upgrade from horse and buggy, cell phone > land line, computer > handwriting, etc. A car is still a car. Gets you to point A to point B.

 

[LesBaker]

But it's an hour lonnngggggg....

And not pron!

 

[LesBaker]

Les Baker's Two Rules of Change.

1. Change is always coming.

2. Nobody celebrates change other than a wet baby.

 

[1maGoh]

Les Baker's Two Rules of Change.

1. Change is always coming.

2. Nobody celebrates change other than a wet baby.

I have to disagree with number 2 there Les.

Having been under several crappy bosses, then upgrading my job 2 times in the last 2 years (plus a recent promotion) change is freaking awesome when it's done right.

Usually what we get is change for the sake of change though. Or change to stroke an ego. Or change to give people good feelings even though the change was bad.

Maybe electric cars will be good though. Who knows?

 

[Rmfnlt]

I'm doing other things right now, but watched the first 10 minutes of it. I'll watch the rest sometime this weekend.

I know electric cars sound great, but there's a lot of other factors, and maybe he mentions them later on.

- How much strain are these cars going to be on the electrical grid? Where will the electricity come from, coal plants? Wind turbines? That's another can of worms.

-Lithium Ion batteries? 12 megafactories? That's a helluva lot of mining.

-The government and big oil bureaucracy will do whatever they can to keep the oil flowing. I'm in the O&G industry as a consultant and from what I can see, the business is still strong. There are many exploration projects going on currently.

-At the beginning when he mentions other technologies and how the electrical car will follow suit. But the thing is, all those prior inventions were new ideas that made lives easier. Car was upgrade from horse and buggy, cell phone > land line, computer > handwriting, etc. A car is still a car. Gets you to point A to point B.

All excellent points, IMO.

Just one thing to think about:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...m-shortage-derail-electric-car-boom/87684224/

 

[CGI_Ram]

But it's an hour lonnngggggg....

Yeah. It’s a commitment. Watch when you have time to kill...

Very interesting and goes fast.

 

[VegasRam]

I thought it was very interesting - hope it comes true.
When I went out on my own in '97, I bought the most computer I could, with a whopping 16 mgs of ram, and a processor speed of 266 mhz.
(There were probably faster computers with more ram, but I'm talking within reason financially).

Ten years later, I upgraded my pc to a dual core @ 3.4 ghz, and 8 gigs of ram, a 15 fold increase in speed, and a 500- fold increase in ram.
I'll be 70 this year, and the speed at which technology increases still amazes me.

I realize for most of you it's kinda business as usual, but I grew up in a world without electrical technology - hell, the electric typewriter was an earth-shattering breakthrough back in the day - so what is going to occur in the next ten years holds a very real fascination for me.

Thanks for posting @CGI.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

I have a 3/4 ton 2007 Chevy beast that eats diesel for a living
But it's paid for and is sort of the envy of my blessed hillbilly neighbors, and is paid for, wait i said that.
The best thing anout my truck is I can spill a beer or coffee in it, or use the back seat as a trash can and it's okay - my wife is never, and i mean never, entering the "domain."
And it barely leaves the ranch
But we do have to keep an SUV for the wife and kids and for tax reasons - don't ask me - and naturally being a guy who grew up in the car culture and pursuing rhat design career I always had them in the super-high-end Range Rover at all times i've owned like 8 of those things.
We live on rural roads and all vehicles are 3/4 to 1 ton trucks. Keeping her and the kids safe is #1. Plus pimping in a Range was rad for a while
But she lost the allure
And over the years it has with me.
And nevermore so then when the LR dealership wouldn't pay blue book for own car!

So we switched to a hybrid Volvo T8

Half the price, 100% cutting edge technology, hybrid - not the absokute best but it's at least getting close
and she totally digs it -
we basically can go full electric within the 17 miles or so we live our existence- it's great! I mean we didn't want to buy into the Tesla lie - i mean seriousky 100 plus! - anyway. F that
But Volvo offered the safety i needed to let my fmaily roll out on those rural roads, and the killer technology that just blew me away - at a great price
Land Rover / Tata motors or whatever is light years away
But driving electric is really fun
The hybrid is fun cause the missionis to save on gas - so for the first time in my life i drive the speed linit
Anyway - i just wish i could go cross country fully electri. - but i guess that's coming
Watches 25 min of this vid before i had to eject

 

[Riverumbbq]

Imagine if more cities allowed electric golf carts on public roads, we'd see the automobile transition take place even quicker.

I have a 2006 1 Ton F350 Diesel Pick-up Truck with only about 70,000 total miles, and it's in 'like new' condition, ... i'll probably keep it until my last breathe because I need the power to pull my boat and utility trailer. Since the mid 70's i've always owned a full size truck, rarely used for employment, most always for my own home jobs, although I don't think I could have ever gotten by without them. For years I have rented autos when vacationing or driving for distance, this practice has allowed me to check out a better variety of interesting luxury cars while saving wear & tear on my own vehicles. I've never used Uber, but can see how it might become a way of life rather than purchasing another vehicle with it's ensuing costs, maintenance, insurance & fuel. Now that i'm 65, I kind of thought my last big expense would be a luxury automobile, but I'm not sure why I would want or need this any longer as my truck or renting a car when necessary is plenty sufficient. In Lake Havasu City, Az. where I have my second home, they allow electric golf carts on city streets, so for well under $15,000.00 I can either go golfing, go to the supermarket/restaurant or anywhere else in town without the expense of a second car which is likely to cost at minimum some $40-50,000 +, and may be obsolete almost as soon as I buy it. That difference between vehicle prices will buy an awful lot of Margarita's.
My only real concern with an electric pick-up truck is whether it will be capable of towing a heavy load behind it, i'm thinking it may be years before they offer that kind of sustainable power. Lite electric pick-up trucks, yes, ... lite electric cars, yes, ... electric scooters & motorcycles, yes, ... but heavy capacity trucks and heavy commercial/industrial grade equipment & vehicles, diesel power will be necessary for some time imo.

 

[Angry Ram]

All excellent points, IMO.

Just one thing to think about:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...m-shortage-derail-electric-car-boom/87684224/

Yeah the lithium resource is another aspect people don't consider. And not only is lithium in cars, but currently it's already in all rechargeable devices like phones and tablets, airliners, etc. Humans are like locusts when it comes to resource consumption. All this time and money spent into research always ignores one detail: Humans must REDUCE their resource consumption to begin with, as much as they feasibly can.

I've listened the whole video at work today (ironically while working on an oil pipeline project lol), and all he talks about "essentially" (sorry couldn't resist) talks strictly economics and market disruption. But he doesn't mention any other variable, and that is big for EVs to succeed. I'm all for alternate and renewable energy, it's the hurdles it has to go through. The main one being politics. Ugh.

 

[fearsomefour]

I have a 3/4 ton 2007 Chevy beast that eats diesel for a living
But it's paid for and is sort of the envy of my blessed hillbilly neighbors, and is paid for, wait i said that.
The best thing anout my truck is I can spill a beer or coffee in it, or use the back seat as a trash can and it's okay - my wife is never, and i mean never, entering the "domain."
And it barely leaves the ranch
But we do have to keep an SUV for the wife and kids and for tax reasons - don't ask me - and naturally being a guy who grew up in the car culture and pursuing rhat design career I always had them in the super-high-end Range Rover at all times i've owned like 8 of those things.
We live on rural roads and all vehicles are 3/4 to 1 ton trucks. Keeping her and the kids safe is #1. Plus pimping in a Range was rad for a while
But she lost the allure
And over the years it has with me.
And nevermore so then when the LR dealership wouldn't pay blue book for own car!

So we switched to a hybrid Volvo T8

Half the price, 100% cutting edge technology, hybrid - not the absokute best but it's at least getting close
and she totally digs it -
we basically can go full electric within the 17 miles or so we live our existence- it's great! I mean we didn't want to buy into the Tesla lie - i mean seriousky 100 plus! - anyway. F that
But Volvo offered the safety i needed to let my fmaily roll out on those rural roads, and the killer technology that just blew me away - at a great price
Land Rover / Tata motors or whatever is light years away
But driving electric is really fun
The hybrid is fun cause the missionis to save on gas - so for the first time in my life i drive the speed linit
Anyway - i just wish i could go cross country fully electri. - but i guess that's coming
Watches 25 min of this vid before i had to eject

View attachment 24002

The Tesla is a lot of fun however....

 

[Dieter the Brock]

The Tesla is a lot of fun however....

I would totally drive a Tesla - don't get me wrong
It's just coming off the Range Rover lie I was unable to double down with a 100+ car that couldn't get me across state lines

 

[fearsomefour]

I would totally drive a Tesla - don't get me wrong
It's just coming off the Range Rover lie I was unable to double down with a 100+ car that couldn't get me across state lines

Oh I get it.
A tone of sizzle.....at some point it has to be usable.
I did track out a trip from Nevada to central ca and from Nevada to Denver Co. Could make the trip to Ca with no problem. Charging stations you could sync up with a restaurant stop. The longer the trip, the harder it gets.
Didn't find any in the wide open stretches of Wyoming on the way to Denver.
That was a while ago, may have changed since then.

 

[Mackeyser]

I'm doing other things right now, but watched the first 10 minutes of it. I'll watch the rest sometime this weekend.

I know electric cars sound great, but there's a lot of other factors, and maybe he mentions them later on.

- How much strain are these cars going to be on the electrical grid? Where will the electricity come from, coal plants? Wind turbines? That's another can of worms.

-Lithium Ion batteries? 12 megafactories? That's a helluva lot of mining.

-The government and big oil bureaucracy will do whatever they can to keep the oil flowing. I'm in the O&G industry as a consultant and from what I can see, the business is still strong. There are many exploration projects going on currently.

-At the beginning when he mentions other technologies and how the electrical car will follow suit. But the thing is, all those prior inventions were new ideas that made lives easier. Car was upgrade from horse and buggy, cell phone > land line, computer > handwriting, etc. A car is still a car. Gets you to point A to point B.

Your point would be more applicable if the electric car wasn't also going to be conflated in the near future with auto-autos... or self-driving cars.

Moreover, in 20-30 years, I honestly don't think we'll recognize cars.

1) I think ownership will for most be some sort of membership in a type of leasing club. This meshes with the millennial's distaste for driving and their desires to still be independent.

2) Insurance will kill self-driving. As auto-driving cars have much better safety records than people, the time will come when insurance costs reach a critical mass and rates are unattainable.

3) Large parts of urban centers will likely be completely off-limits to human driving at all. That will significantly aid city planners and make for safer traffic zones.

4) The shape of cars will radically change. There is really no reason for the current shape of cars if they are self-driving electric. I won't even venture a guess because designers will look at how people are using the new vehicles and design around that.

5) As for the batteries, I honestly don't think Lithium Ion is the be all. It's not the end. I think there's a next step that will exponentially increase stored capacity as well as deliverable power.

So basically, in the not too distant future, cars won't likely be "cars". We may not even recognize the shape as a "car" per se.

And yes, currently, it's a lot of mining. I dunno where the next battery comes from. Hopefully, they are all more ecologically viable than the Nickel Metal Hydride batteries... ugh. Lithium Ion is better, but still.

That said, we desperately need to upgrade our grid as it is, so I don't see this as an issue.

Lastly, the electric car will be that next level upgrade in that once fully deployed, people will have to remember driving and there will be the first generation who talks about "buying" or "having" a car and will have never driven.

For us old timers, it'll be a Strange New World...

 

[Farr Be It]

Your point would be more applicable if the electric car wasn't also going to be conflated in the near future with auto-autos... or self-driving cars.

Moreover, in 20-30 years, I honestly don't think we'll recognize cars.

1) I think ownership will for most be some sort of membership in a type of leasing club. This meshes with the millennial's distaste for driving and their desires to still be independent.

2) Insurance will kill self-driving. As auto-driving cars have much better safety records than people, the time will come when insurance costs reach a critical mass and rates are unattainable.

3) Large parts of urban centers will likely be completely off-limits to human driving at all. That will significantly aid city planners and make for safer traffic zones.

4) The shape of cars will radically change. There is really no reason for the current shape of cars if they are self-driving electric. I won't even venture a guess because designers will look at how people are using the new vehicles and design around that.

5) As for the batteries, I honestly don't think Lithium Ion is the be all. It's not the end. I think there's a next step that will exponentially increase stored capacity as well as deliverable power.

So basically, in the not too distant future, cars won't likely be "cars". We may not even recognize the shape as a "car" per se.

And yes, currently, it's a lot of mining. I dunno where the next battery comes from. Hopefully, they are all more ecologically viable than the Nickel Metal Hydride batteries... ugh. Lithium Ion is better, but still.

That said, we desperately need to upgrade our grid as it is, so I don't see this as an issue.

Lastly, the electric car will be that next level upgrade in that once fully deployed, people will have to remember driving and there will be the first generation who talks about "buying" or "having" a car and will have never driven.

For us old timers, it'll be a Strange New World...

Interesting vision, Mack. How do you think the self-driving cars and auto leasing clubs etc. will square with peoples freedoms and convenience. Honest question. I am sure you have thought this through. Do you have a vehicle still that you hop in and run up to the store to get some beer, or do you have to contact, like an Uber, and the transportation comes from some nearby motor pool? No waiting time, or dealing with a stranger? I'm trying to see this.

 

[LesBaker]

Interesting vision, Mack. How do you think the self-driving cars and auto leasing clubs etc. will square with peoples freedoms and convenience. Honest question. I am sure you have thought this through. Do you have a vehicle still that you hop in and run up to the store to get some beer, or do you have to contact, like an Uber, and the transportation comes from some nearby motor pool? No waiting time, or dealing with a stranger? I'm trying to see this.

I think you would get in your self driving car, enter the address of the store, and away you go.

That is pretty squared with "freedoms and convenience" right?

 

[Farr Be It]

I think you would get in your self driving car, enter the address of the store, and away you go.

That is pretty squared with "freedoms and convenience" right?

1) I think ownership will for most be some sort of membership in a type of leasing club. This meshes with the millennial's distaste for driving and their desires to still be independent.

Oh, so there is ownership of vehicles, and not a membership in a leasing club? I was actually asking Mack, Les. Thanks for your view. That would be the ideal scenario. There are a lot of variables here. I am anxious to here what Mack has to say about this. I know he has thought a lot about what the future in this area might look like. Maybe you have too.